FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwaySOCON

0:3

HomeCUSA

Middle Tenn. def. Samford 3–0

(25-12, 25-20, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SAMFRD	12	20	15	0
MIDTEN	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MIDTEN above 50 · SAMFRD below

Biggest swing: 1.8% to Samford — set 1, SAMFRD 5-6 MIDTEN. Attack error by Gabrielle Clinkscale. MIDTEN win probability 81% → 79%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SAMFRD 22.7%77.3% MIDTEN

Samford wins

3-0

3.9%

3-1

7.7%

3-2

11.2%

Middle Tenn. wins

3-0

29.0%

3-1

29.4%

3-2

18.9%

SAMFRD break %: 41.1% vs this opp
MIDTEN break %: 46.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Gabrielle ClinkscaleAttack error+1.8%
Attack error by Gabrielle Clinkscale
Set 1 · SAMFRD 5-6 MIDTEN · SAMFRD 19% → 21%
02
MIDTEN serverAce+1.8%
Middle Tenn. ace on Ally Cordes
Set 1 · SAMFRD 1-2 MIDTEN · MIDTEN 77% → 79%
03
MIDTEN serverAce+1.7%
Middle Tenn. ace on Katelyn Stooksbury
Set 1 · SAMFRD 5-8 MIDTEN · MIDTEN 81% → 82%
04
Maggie KaliszAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Maggie Kalisz
Set 1 · SAMFRD 1-3 MIDTEN · MIDTEN 79% → 81%
05
Maggie KaliszKill+1.6%
Kill by Maggie Kalisz (set by Janie Stinchcomb)
Set 2 · SAMFRD 16-18 MIDTEN · SAMFRD 7% → 9%
06
Hazel SlusherAttack error+1.5%
Attack error by Hazel Slusher
Set 1 · SAMFRD 2-5 MIDTEN · MIDTEN 81% → 82%
07
Veronica SierzantBad set+1.5%
Bad set by Veronica Sierzant
Set 1 · SAMFRD 1-0 MIDTEN · SAMFRD 23% → 24%
08
Veronica SierzantAttack error+1.5%
Attack error by Veronica Sierzant
Set 2 · SAMFRD 4-4 MIDTEN · SAMFRD 11% → 12%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Samfordaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
13Ally CordesOH	3	8	2	26	.231	0	1	0	9	1	0	1	0.5	9.5
18Maggie KaliszOH	3	5	4	20	.050	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	1	6
16Janie StinchcombMB	3	4	0	13	.308	1	0	0	3	0	0	4	2	6
10Alison OhlingerS	3	0	0	4	.000	20	0	3	5	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
4Hazel SlusherMB	2	0	3	5	-.600	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Brianna HamiltonOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
12Amyra BurchikOH	3	3	5	20	-.100	0	0	0	5	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
5Peytyn PyleMB	3	1	1	7	.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
7Brooklyn DrumwrightOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	7	2	0	0	0	0
1Carly MinatelL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
8Katelyn StooksburyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	0
Team totals		21	15	95	.063	21	1	9	44	6	1	10	6	47

Middle Tenn.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
13Michaela DlouháMB	3	9	2	14	.500	1	0	2	3	0	1	5	3.5	12.5
3Gabrielle ClinkscaleOH	3	8	3	29	.172	0	1	2	5	1	0	1	0.5	9.5
6Sophia HenryOH	3	7	3	27	.148	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	7
1Logan CarrMB	3	7	2	10	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
11Veronica SierzantS	3	4	1	6	.500	30	2	1	6	0	0	2	1	7
4Addison BurksL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	1	2	12	0	0	0	0	1
14Kendall MignereyOH	3	6	0	7	.857	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	0	7
17Danielle LeeOH	3	3	4	11	-.091	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
8Marianne GarciaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	0	15	0	0	0	0	1
0Ellie WattsOH	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Jaslyn ReedOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	15	105	.276	39	6	9	51	1	1	10	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 SAMFRD · MIDTEN 7

Set 1

12-25

Longest run 2 SAMFRDMIDTEN 7

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 SAMFRDMIDTEN 3

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 3 SAMFRDMIDTEN 4

Bars above the line = Middle Tenn. leads, below = Samford leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Samford

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	37%7/19	38%3/8
2	44%7/16	13%1/8
3	58%7/12	13%1/8
4	56%5/9	30%3/10
5	50%4/8	17%1/6
6	40%4/10	50%4/8
All	46%34/74	27%13/48

Middle Tenn.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	68%13/19
2	88%7/8	53%8/15
3	88%7/8	30%3/10
4	67%6/9	57%8/14
5	67%4/6	50%4/8
6	50%4/8	50%4/8
All	73%35/48	54%40/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

122 rallies

Rally log

#	SAMFRD-MIDTEN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Bad set	Veronica Sierzant		+1.5
2	1-1	SAMFRD	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Michaela Dlouhá	set Veronica Sierzant	+1.4
3	1-2	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Ace	MIDTEN server	aced Ally Cordes	+1.8
4	1-3	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Attack err	Maggie Kalisz		+1.7
5	2-3	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Kill	Maggie Kalisz	set Alison Ohlinger	+1.3
6	2-4	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Kill	Kendall Mignerey	set Veronica Sierzant	+1.3
7	2-5	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Attack err	Hazel Slusher		+1.5
8	3-5	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Kill	Ally Cordes	set Alison Ohlinger	+1.2
9	3-6	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Kill	Kendall Mignerey	set Veronica Sierzant	+1.2
10	4-6	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Kill	Amyra Burchik	set Alison Ohlinger	+1.2
11	5-6	SAMFRD	SAMFRD	Attack err	Gabrielle Clinkscale		+1.8
12	5-7	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Serve err	SAMFRD server		+1.4
13	5-8	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Ace	MIDTEN server	aced Katelyn Stooksbury	+1.7
14	6-8	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Serve err	MIDTEN server		+1.3
15	6-9	SAMFRD	MIDTEN×5	Serve err	SAMFRD server		+1.3
16	6-10	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×5	Attack err	Amyra Burchik	blk Michaela Dlouhá, Danielle Lee	+1.5
17	6-11	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×5	Kill	Michaela Dlouhá	set Veronica Sierzant	+1.2
18	6-12	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×5	Ace	MIDTEN server	aced Brooklyn Drumwright	+0.9
19	6-13	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×5	Attack err	Amyra Burchik	blk Michaela Dlouhá, Danielle Lee	+0.7
20	7-13	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Kill	Janie Stinchcomb	set Alison Ohlinger	+0.4
21	8-13	SAMFRD	SAMFRD	Attack err	Michaela Dlouhá		+0.8
22	8-14	SAMFRD	MIDTEN×7	Kill	Sophia Henry	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.7
23	8-15	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×7	Attack err	Ally Cordes		+0.7
24	8-16	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×7	Kill	Michaela Dlouhá	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.5
25	8-17	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×7	Kill	Michaela Dlouhá		+0.3
26	8-18	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×7	Attack err	Maggie Kalisz	blk Michaela Dlouhá	+0.2
27	8-19	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×7	Kill	Michaela Dlouhá	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.1
28	8-20	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×7	Bad set	Ally Cordes		+0.0
29	9-20	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Serve err	MIDTEN server		+0.0
30	9-21	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Attack err	Hazel Slusher		+0.0
31	9-22	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.0
32	10-22	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Serve err	MIDTEN server		+0.0
33	11-22	SAMFRD	SAMFRD	Kill	Ally Cordes	set Alison Ohlinger	+0.0
34	11-23	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Marianne Garcia	+0.0
35	12-23	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Kill	Ally Cordes	set Alison Ohlinger	+0.0
36	12-24	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Kill	Logan Carr	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.0
37	12-25	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Kill	Veronica Sierzant	set Marianne Garcia	+1.0
2	1-1	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Attack err	Gabrielle Clinkscale	blk Janie Stinchcomb, Maggie Kalisz	+1.1
3	1-2	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Kill	Kendall Mignerey	set Veronica Sierzant	+1.1
4	1-3	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Attack err	Hazel Slusher		+1.3
5	2-3	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Serve err	MIDTEN server		+1.0
6	2-4	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Kill	Logan Carr	set Veronica Sierzant	+1.0
7	3-4	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Kill	Ally Cordes	set Alison Ohlinger	+1.0
8	4-4	SAMFRD	SAMFRD	Attack err	Veronica Sierzant		+1.5
9	4-5	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Kill	Logan Carr	set Veronica Sierzant	+1.1
10	5-5	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Attack err	Danielle Lee		+1.2
11	5-6	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Kill	Sophia Henry	set Veronica Sierzant	+1.2
12	6-6	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Attack err	Sophia Henry	blk Alison Ohlinger, Janie Stinchcomb	+1.3
13	6-7	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Kill	Danielle Lee	set Veronica Sierzant	+1.2
14	6-8	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Kill	Michaela Dlouhá	set Veronica Sierzant	+1.5
15	7-8	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Kill	Maggie Kalisz	set Alison Ohlinger	+1.2
16	7-9	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Serve err	SAMFRD server		+1.2
17	8-9	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Serve err	MIDTEN server		+1.2
18	8-10	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Veronica Sierzant	+1.2
19	8-11	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Kill	Kendall Mignerey	set Veronica Sierzant	+1.4
20	9-11	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Serve err	MIDTEN server		+1.0
21	9-12	SAMFRD	MIDTEN×3	Attack err	Ally Cordes		+1.1
22	9-13	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Veronica Sierzant	+1.2
23	9-14	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Ace	MIDTEN server	aced Katelyn Stooksbury	+1.0
24	10-14	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Serve err	MIDTEN server		+0.6
25	10-15	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Kill	Danielle Lee	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.8
26	11-15	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Serve err	MIDTEN server		+0.6
27	11-16	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Kill	Logan Carr	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.8
28	12-16	MIDTEN	SAMFRD×3	Kill	Amyra Burchik	set Alison Ohlinger	+0.6
29	13-16	SAMFRD	SAMFRD×3	Attack err	Sophia Henry	blk Janie Stinchcomb, Maggie Kalisz	+1.1
30	14-16	SAMFRD	SAMFRD×3	Attack err	Danielle Lee		+1.5
31	14-17	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Serve err	SAMFRD server		+1.3
32	14-18	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Kill	Veronica Sierzant	set Addison Burks	+1.4
33	15-18	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Kill	Maggie Kalisz	set Alison Ohlinger	+0.9
34	16-18	SAMFRD	SAMFRD	Kill	Maggie Kalisz	set Janie Stinchcomb	+1.6
35	16-19	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Kill	Sophia Henry	set Veronica Sierzant	+1.5
36	16-20	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Attack err	Maggie Kalisz	blk Gabrielle Clinkscale, Michaela Dlouhá	+1.4
37	17-20	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Attack err	Gabrielle Clinkscale		+0.8
38	17-21	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Serve err	SAMFRD server		+1.1
39	18-21	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Kill	Maggie Kalisz	set Alison Ohlinger	+0.8
40	18-22	SAMFRD	MIDTEN×3	Serve err	SAMFRD server		+1.1
41	18-23	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Danielle Lee	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.8
42	18-24	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Kendall Mignerey	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.3
43	19-24	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Kill	Ally Cordes	set Alison Ohlinger	+0.1
44	20-24	SAMFRD	SAMFRD	Ace	SAMFRD server	aced Gabrielle Clinkscale	+0.2
45	20-25	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Kill	Kendall Mignerey	set Marianne Garcia	+0.3
Set 3
1	0-1	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Sophia Henry	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.7
2	0-2	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Addison Burks	+0.6
3	0-3	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Veronica Sierzant	set Michaela Dlouhá	+0.6
4	1-3	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Serve err	MIDTEN server		+0.5
5	2-3	SAMFRD	SAMFRD	Attack err	Sophia Henry		+0.7
6	2-4	SAMFRD	MIDTEN×4	Kill	Michaela Dlouhá	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.5
7	2-5	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×4	Attack err	Amyra Burchik	blk Veronica Sierzant, Michaela Dlouhá	+0.6
8	2-6	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×4	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Marianne Garcia	+0.5
9	2-7	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×4	Kill	Michaela Dlouhá	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.5
10	3-7	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Kill	Amyra Burchik	set Alison Ohlinger	+0.3
11	3-8	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Attack err	Amyra Burchik		+0.4
12	4-8	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Attack err	Logan Carr		+0.3
13	5-8	SAMFRD	SAMFRD	Kill	Janie Stinchcomb	set Alison Ohlinger	+0.5
14	5-9	SAMFRD	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Gabrielle Clinkscale	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.4
15	5-10	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Logan Carr	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.5
16	5-11	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Michaela Dlouhá	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.4
17	6-11	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Kill	Janie Stinchcomb	set Alison Ohlinger	+0.3
18	6-12	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Kill	Logan Carr	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.3
19	7-12	MIDTEN	SAMFRD×3	Attack err	Danielle Lee	blk Peytyn Pyle, Ally Cordes	+0.2
20	8-12	SAMFRD	SAMFRD×3	Kill	Ally Cordes	set Alison Ohlinger	+0.4
21	9-12	SAMFRD	SAMFRD×3	Attack err	Danielle Lee		+0.6
22	9-13	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Attack err	Peytyn Pyle		+0.5
23	10-13	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Kill	Peytyn Pyle	set Alison Ohlinger	+0.4
24	11-13	SAMFRD	SAMFRD	Kill	Ally Cordes	set Alison Ohlinger	+0.7
25	11-14	SAMFRD	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Sophia Henry	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.6
26	11-15	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Kill	Sophia Henry	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.7
27	11-16	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×3	Ace	MIDTEN server	aced Katelyn Stooksbury	+0.5
28	12-16	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Attack err	Michaela Dlouhá	blk Amyra Burchik, Janie Stinchcomb	+0.3
29	12-17	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Serve err	SAMFRD server		+0.4
30	12-18	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Attack err	Amyra Burchik	blk Veronica Sierzant, Michaela Dlouhá	+0.4
31	13-18	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Kill	Ally Cordes	set Alison Ohlinger	+0.2
32	13-19	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Serve err	SAMFRD server		+0.3
33	14-19	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Attack err	Logan Carr	blk Amyra Burchik	+0.2
34	14-20	SAMFRD	MIDTEN	Serve err	SAMFRD server		+0.3
35	14-21	MIDTEN	MIDTEN	Ace	MIDTEN server	aced Brooklyn Drumwright	+0.2
36	15-21	MIDTEN	SAMFRD	Kill	Janie Stinchcomb	set Alison Ohlinger	+0.1
37	15-22	SAMFRD	MIDTEN×4	Kill	Veronica Sierzant	set Kendall Mignerey	+0.1
38	15-23	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×4	Kill	Logan Carr	set Veronica Sierzant	+0.1
39	15-24	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×4	Attack err	Maggie Kalisz		+0.0
40	15-25	MIDTEN	MIDTEN×4	Kill	Sophia Henry	set Ellie Watts	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Samford first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.