FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayMVC

0:3

HomeACC

Duke def. Belmont 3–0

(25-21, 25-18, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BELMNT	21	18	22	0
DUKE	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

DUKE above 50 · BELMNT below

Biggest swing: 3.7% to Duke — set 1, BELMNT 19-21 DUKE. Connie Kofoed stuffed by Nikki Quinn & Zoe Gillen-Malveaux. DUKE win probability 80% → 84%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BELMNT 20.8%79.2% DUKE

Belmont wins

3-0

3.4%

3-1

7.0%

3-2

10.4%

Duke wins

3-0

30.7%

3-1

30.0%

3-2

18.5%

BELMNT break %: 36.1% vs this opp
DUKE break %: 42.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Connie KofoedAttack error+3.7%
Connie Kofoed stuffed by Nikki Quinn & Zoe Gillen-Malveaux
Set 1 · BELMNT 19-21 DUKE · DUKE 80% → 84%
02
Nataly MoravecAttack error+3.5%
Nataly Moravec stuffed by Alexia Smollen & Brenna Kauffeld
Set 1 · BELMNT 18-18 DUKE · BELMNT 19% → 23%
03
Brenna KauffeldAttack error+2.7%
Attack error by Brenna Kauffeld
Set 1 · BELMNT 19-22 DUKE · DUKE 84% → 86%
04
DUKE serverAce+2.7%
Duke ace on Connie Kofoed
Set 1 · BELMNT 14-16 DUKE · DUKE 80% → 82%
05
Nataly MoravecKill+2.6%
Kill by Nataly Moravec (set by Nikki Quinn)
Set 1 · BELMNT 19-20 DUKE · DUKE 77% → 80%
06
Connie KofoedKill+2.6%
Kill by Connie Kofoed (set by Jordan Czajkowski)
Set 1 · BELMNT 12-12 DUKE · BELMNT 19% → 22%
07
Alexia SmollenKill+2.5%
Kill by Alexia Smollen (set by Jordan Czajkowski)
Set 1 · BELMNT 19-19 DUKE · BELMNT 20% → 23%
08
Nataly MoravecKill+2.4%
Kill by Nataly Moravec (set by Nikki Quinn)
Set 1 · BELMNT 18-19 DUKE · DUKE 77% → 80%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Belmontaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
3Brenna KauffeldOH	3	8	3	20	.250	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	9
21Alexia SmollenMB	3	6	3	13	.231	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	7.5
1Connie KofoedOH	3	5	4	25	.040	1	0	0	4	2	0	0	5
11Erin McMullenMB	3	3	1	11	.182	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
9Emily WarmenhovenOH	3	4	3	10	.100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
2Jordan CzajkowskiS	2	0	0	1	.000	14	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
4Madison LansdownL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	1
12Mya BoltonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	2	10	1	0	0	1
0Lauren EvansDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	9	0	0	0	0
10Sydnee NelsonOH	2	5	2	14	.214	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	5
7Alivia KeeganS	2	1	0	3	.333	16	0	0	2	0	4	2	3
15Lucy KayMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
22Mialee DabbeltOH	1	0	1	5	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Teagan BrandsmaOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	17	104	.154	33	2	4	40	5	12	6	61

Dukehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
8Nataly MoravecOH	3	13	5	32	.250	1	0	3	8	0	1	0.5	13.5
0Zoe Gillen-MalveauxMB	3	10	0	17	.588	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	12
11Ashby ZubchevichOH	3	10	5	24	.208	0	1	3	10	0	1	0.5	11.5
12Avery HamlinOH	3	8	0	18	.444	0	1	3	2	0	1	0.5	9.5
5Breonna GossMB	3	6	0	13	.462	0	0	2	1	0	3	1.5	7.5
23Nikki QuinnS	3	1	2	3	-.333	41	0	2	6	0	4	2	3
10Mailinh GodschallL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	3	1	14	0	0	0	3
19Alyce DonoghueL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
2Grace ThrowerOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	12	107	.336	45	5	14	45	2	14	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 BELMNT · DUKE 6

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 4 BELMNTDUKE 4

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 3 BELMNTDUKE 6

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 BELMNTDUKE 3

Bars above the line = Duke leads, below = Belmont leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Belmont

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%8/15	13%1/8
2	73%8/11	27%3/11
3	67%8/12	38%5/13
4	44%7/16	33%4/12
5	78%7/9	13%1/8
6	50%5/10	36%4/11
All	59%43/73	29%18/63

Duke

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	40%4/10
2	73%8/11	33%4/12
3	67%8/12	20%2/10
4	73%8/11	50%8/16
5	70%7/10	42%5/12
6	75%6/8	54%7/13
All	71%45/63	41%30/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

136 rallies

Rally log

#	BELMNT-DUKE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+1.1
2	1-1	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Alexia Smollen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+1.2
3	1-2	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Jordan Czajkowski	+1.2
4	2-2	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Connie Kofoed	set Jordan Czajkowski	+1.3
5	2-3	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.2
6	3-3	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Jordan Czajkowski	+1.3
7	3-4	BELMNT	DUKE×3	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.2
8	3-5	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Mailinh Godschall	+1.8
9	3-6	DUKE	DUKE×3	Attack err	Connie Kofoed		+1.6
10	4-6	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+1.0
11	4-7	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.0
12	4-8	DUKE	DUKE	Ace	DUKE server	aced Connie Kofoed	+1.4
13	5-8	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Emily Warmenhoven	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.8
14	6-8	BELMNT	BELMNT	Attack err	Nikki Quinn		+1.6
15	6-9	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Jordan Czajkowski	+1.1
16	7-9	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Emily Warmenhoven	set Jordan Czajkowski	+1.1
17	7-10	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nikki Quinn	+1.1
18	7-11	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nikki Quinn	+1.5
19	8-11	DUKE	BELMNT	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.8
20	8-12	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.9
21	9-12	DUKE	BELMNT×4	Kill	Connie Kofoed	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.9
22	10-12	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Jordan Czajkowski	+1.7
23	11-12	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Kill	Connie Kofoed	set Jordan Czajkowski	+2.2
24	12-12	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Kill	Connie Kofoed	set Jordan Czajkowski	+2.6
25	12-13	BELMNT	DUKE	Serve err	BELMNT server		+1.7
26	13-13	DUKE	BELMNT	Attack err	Nataly Moravec		+1.8
27	13-14	BELMNT	DUKE	Serve err	BELMNT server		+1.8
28	14-14	DUKE	BELMNT	Serve err	DUKE server		+1.9
29	14-15	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+1.9
30	14-16	DUKE	DUKE	Ace	DUKE server	aced Connie Kofoed	+2.7
31	15-16	DUKE	BELMNT	Attack err	Nataly Moravec		+1.6
32	15-17	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+1.8
33	16-17	DUKE	BELMNT	Serve err	DUKE server		+1.7
34	16-18	BELMNT	DUKE	Serve err	BELMNT server		+1.9
35	17-18	DUKE	BELMNT	Serve err	DUKE server		+1.8
36	18-18	BELMNT	BELMNT	Attack err	Nataly Moravec	blk Alexia Smollen, Brenna Kauffeld	+3.5
37	18-19	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+2.4
38	19-19	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Alexia Smollen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+2.5
39	19-20	BELMNT	DUKE×4	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+2.6
40	19-21	DUKE	DUKE×4	Attack err	Connie Kofoed	blk Nikki Quinn, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	+3.7
41	19-22	DUKE	DUKE×4	Attack err	Brenna Kauffeld		+2.7
42	19-23	DUKE	DUKE×4	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.6
43	20-23	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Mya Bolton	+0.4
44	21-23	BELMNT	BELMNT	Ace	BELMNT server	aced Team	+1.5
45	21-24	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+1.7
46	21-25	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Connie Kofoed	blk Zoe Gillen-Malveaux, Nikki Quinn	+0.9
Set 2
1	0-1	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+1.4
2	0-2	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nataly Moravec	+1.3
3	1-2	DUKE	BELMNT×3	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.8
4	2-2	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Jordan Czajkowski	+1.4
5	3-2	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Kill	Alexia Smollen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+1.6
6	3-3	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nikki Quinn	+1.0
7	3-4	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nikki Quinn	+1.5
8	4-4	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Alexia Smollen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+1.0
9	4-5	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+1.0
10	5-5	DUKE	BELMNT	Serve err	DUKE server		+1.0
11	5-6	BELMNT	DUKE×5	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nikki Quinn	+1.0
12	5-7	DUKE	DUKE×5	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Mailinh Godschall	+1.4
13	5-8	DUKE	DUKE×5	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+1.3
14	5-9	DUKE	DUKE×5	Ace	DUKE server	aced Team	+1.1
15	5-10	DUKE	DUKE×5	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+0.9
16	6-10	DUKE	BELMNT	Attack err	Nikki Quinn		+0.5
17	6-11	BELMNT	DUKE	Serve err	BELMNT server		+0.5
18	7-11	DUKE	BELMNT	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.5
19	7-12	BELMNT	DUKE×6	Kill	Nikki Quinn	set Mailinh Godschall	+0.5
20	7-13	DUKE	DUKE×6	Ace	DUKE server	aced Team	+0.6
21	7-14	DUKE	DUKE×6	Attack err	Emily Warmenhoven		+0.4
22	7-15	DUKE	DUKE×6	Attack err	Emily Warmenhoven	blk Nikki Quinn, Breonna Goss	+0.3
23	7-16	DUKE	DUKE×6	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.2
24	7-17	DUKE	DUKE×6	Attack err	Mialee Dabbelt	blk Breonna Goss, Nikki Quinn	+0.1
25	8-17	DUKE	BELMNT	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.0
26	8-18	BELMNT	DUKE×3	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+0.0
27	8-19	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.0
28	8-20	DUKE	DUKE×3	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.0
29	9-20	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Alivia Keegan	+0.0
30	9-21	BELMNT	DUKE	Attack err	Brenna Kauffeld		+0.0
31	10-21	DUKE	BELMNT×3	Kill	Sydnee Nelson	set Alivia Keegan	+0.0
32	11-21	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Ace	BELMNT server	aced Team	+0.0
33	12-21	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Attack err	Nataly Moravec	blk Lucy Kay, Brenna Kauffeld	+0.0
34	12-22	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nikki Quinn	+0.0
35	13-22	DUKE	BELMNT	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.0
36	14-22	BELMNT	BELMNT	Kill	Sydnee Nelson	set Lauren Evans	+0.0
37	14-23	BELMNT	DUKE	Attack err	Sydnee Nelson	blk Avery Hamlin, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	+0.0
38	15-23	DUKE	BELMNT	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.0
39	15-24	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Alyce Donoghue	+0.0
40	16-24	DUKE	BELMNT×3	Kill	Lucy Kay	set Alivia Keegan	+0.0
41	17-24	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Kill	Alexia Smollen	set Alivia Keegan	+0.0
42	18-24	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich	blk Alexia Smollen, Alivia Keegan	+0.0
43	18-25	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+0.5
2	0-2	DUKE	DUKE	Ace	DUKE server	aced Mya Bolton	+0.7
3	1-2	DUKE	BELMNT	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.4
4	1-3	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.4
5	2-3	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Alivia Keegan	+0.5
6	2-4	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+0.4
7	3-4	DUKE	BELMNT	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.5
8	3-5	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.5
9	3-6	DUKE	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+0.7
10	4-6	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Connie Kofoed	set Alivia Keegan	+0.4
11	5-6	BELMNT	BELMNT	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich	blk Alivia Keegan, Alexia Smollen	+0.7
12	5-7	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+0.5
13	6-7	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Alivia Keegan		+0.5
14	6-8	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.5
15	7-8	DUKE	BELMNT	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich	blk Alivia Keegan, Erin McMullen	+0.5
16	7-9	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nikki Quinn	+0.5
17	7-10	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Erin McMullen		+0.7
18	8-10	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Alivia Keegan	+0.4
19	8-11	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Breonna Goss	set Nikki Quinn	+0.5
20	9-11	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Alivia Keegan	+0.4
21	9-12	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+0.5
22	10-12	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Alivia Keegan	+0.5
23	10-13	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.5
24	11-13	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Alexia Smollen	set Alivia Keegan	+0.5
25	11-14	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	set Nikki Quinn	+0.5
26	12-14	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Sydnee Nelson	set Alivia Keegan	+0.5
27	12-15	BELMNT	DUKE	Serve err	BELMNT server		+0.5
28	13-15	DUKE	BELMNT	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich	blk Erin McMullen, Alivia Keegan	+0.5
29	14-15	BELMNT	BELMNT	Kill	Sydnee Nelson	set Alivia Keegan	+1.0
30	14-16	BELMNT	DUKE	Attack err	Sydnee Nelson		+0.7
31	15-16	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Alivia Keegan	+0.7
32	15-17	BELMNT	DUKE×3	Attack err	Brenna Kauffeld	blk Nataly Moravec, Breonna Goss	+0.7
33	15-18	DUKE	DUKE×3	Attack err	Connie Kofoed		+0.9
34	15-19	DUKE	DUKE×3	Attack err	Emily Warmenhoven		+0.7
35	16-19	DUKE	BELMNT	Kill	Emily Warmenhoven	set Alivia Keegan	+0.3
36	16-20	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Avery Hamlin	set Nikki Quinn	+0.4
37	16-21	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Alexia Smollen		+0.4
38	17-21	DUKE	BELMNT×3	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.1
39	18-21	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Attack err	Nataly Moravec		+0.4
40	19-21	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Kill	Emily Warmenhoven	set Alivia Keegan	+0.7
41	19-22	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Nataly Moravec	set Nikki Quinn	+0.7
42	19-23	DUKE	DUKE	Attack err	Emily Warmenhoven		+0.6
43	20-23	DUKE	BELMNT	Serve err	DUKE server		+0.2
44	20-24	BELMNT	DUKE	Attack err	Alexia Smollen	blk Ashby Zubchevich, Zoe Gillen-Malveaux	+0.3
45	21-24	DUKE	BELMNT	Attack err	Ashby Zubchevich		+0.1
46	22-24	BELMNT	BELMNT	Kill	Sydnee Nelson	set Alivia Keegan	+0.4
47	22-25	BELMNT	DUKE	Kill	Ashby Zubchevich	set Nikki Quinn	+0.6

Score shown after each rally, Belmont first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.