FinalSun, Sep 13, 2026

AwayMVC

0:3

HomeACC

NC State def. Belmont 3–0

(25-20, 25-17, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3*	Sets
BELMNT	20	17	23	0
NC ST	25	25	25	3

* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NC ST above 50 · BELMNT below

Biggest swing: 2.2% to Belmont — set 1, BELMNT 19-17 NC ST. Kill by Erin McMullen (set by Alivia Keegan). NC ST win probability 91% → 89%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BELMNT 5.5%94.5% NC ST

Belmont wins

3-0

0.6%

3-1

1.6%

3-2

3.3%

NC State wins

3-0

54.0%

3-1

30.1%

3-2

10.4%

BELMNT break %: 34.9% vs this opp
NC ST break %: 47.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Erin McMullenKill+2.2%
Kill by Erin McMullen (set by Alivia Keegan)
Set 1 · BELMNT 19-17 NC ST · BELMNT 9% → 11%
02
Jordan SmithKill+1.9%
Kill by Jordan Smith (set by Eva Long)
Set 1 · BELMNT 19-19 NC ST · NC ST 90% → 92%
03
Erin McMullenKill+1.9%
Kill by Erin McMullen (set by Alivia Keegan)
Set 1 · BELMNT 18-17 NC ST · BELMNT 7% → 9%
04
Jordan SmithKill+1.8%
Kill by Jordan Smith (set by Eva Long)
Set 1 · BELMNT 19-20 NC ST · NC ST 92% → 94%
05
Rebecca RingKill+1.5%
Kill by Rebecca Ring (set by Eva Long)
Set 1 · BELMNT 19-21 NC ST · NC ST 94% → 95%
06
Rebecca RingAttack error+1.5%
Rebecca Ring stuffed by Alivia Keegan & Erin McMullen
Set 1 · BELMNT 17-17 NC ST · BELMNT 6% → 7%
07
Talia FrancomAttack error+1.2%
Talia Francom stuffed by Alexia Smollen
Set 1 · BELMNT 9-7 NC ST · BELMNT 7% → 8%
08
Eva LongKill+1.2%
Kill by Eva Long
Set 1 · BELMNT 19-18 NC ST · NC ST 89% → 90%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Belmontaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Emily WarmenhovenOH	3	10	5	25	.200	0	0	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
11Erin McMullenMB	3	8	1	13	.538	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	1	9
1Connie KofoedOH	3	6	3	18	.167	1	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	6
3Brenna KauffeldOH	3	4	4	15	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
21Alexia SmollenMB	3	2	1	9	.111	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	4
7Alivia KeeganS	3	0	0	2	.000	13	0	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
12Mya BoltonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	0	11	1	0	0	0	1
2Jordan CzajkowskiS	3	0	0	1	.000	13	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
4Madison LansdownL/DS	2	0	0	1	.000	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	1
5Teagan BrandsmaOH	2	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
0Lauren EvansDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
10Sydnee NelsonOH	1	0	1	5	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	16	92	.152	29	2	5	34	5	1	8	5	60

NC Statehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
23Jordan SmithOPP	3	11	2	20	.450	0	0	2	0	0	5	2.5	13.5
42Britni SilverOH	3	8	6	21	.095	0	1	1	10	1	2	1	10
17Talia FrancomMB	3	8	2	13	.462	0	1	2	2	0	2	1	10
4Sophia GroomMB	3	4	0	8	.500	1	0	0	0	0	7	3.5	7.5
22Eva LongS	3	3	0	5	.600	34	1	0	8	0	2	1	5
7Kate KilpatrickL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0
27Rebecca RingOH	3	9	6	29	.103	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9
31Elaisa VillarL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
1Zuzanna MaciejewiczL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	2	15	1	0	0	0
12Makenna KowrenOPP	2	0	0	0	–	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	2
14Norah BuschMB	1	3	0	3	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
9Sa'Mya DorseyOPP	1	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Clara VondranOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		46	16	100	.300	40	5	11	41	2	18	9	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 BELMNT · NC ST 7

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 4 BELMNTNC ST 7

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 2 BELMNTNC ST 6

Set 3*

23-25

Longest run 4 BELMNTNC ST 5

Bars above the line = NC State leads, below = Belmont leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Belmont

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	36%5/14	0%0/4
2	36%4/11	29%2/7
3	100%4/4	33%2/6
4	80%4/5	33%2/6
5	36%4/11	56%5/9
6	75%3/4	33%2/6
All	49%24/49	34%13/38

NC State

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	71%5/7	60%6/10
2	80%4/5	69%9/13
3	67%4/6	33%2/6
4	80%4/5	20%1/5
5	44%4/9	20%1/5
6	67%4/6	60%6/10
All	66%25/38	51%25/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

135 rallies

Rally log

#	BELMNT-NC ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.4
2	1-1	NC ST	BELMNT	Bad set	Britni Silver		+0.5
3	1-2	BELMNT	NC ST×3	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+0.4
4	1-3	NC ST	NC ST×3	Attack err	Connie Kofoed		+0.6
5	1-4	NC ST	NC ST×3	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.5
6	2-4	NC ST	BELMNT	Kill	Alexia Smollen	set Alivia Keegan	+0.3
7	2-5	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+0.3
8	3-5	NC ST	BELMNT	Attack err	Rebecca Ring		+0.4
9	3-6	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.3
10	4-6	NC ST	BELMNT×3	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.4
11	5-6	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Kill	Emily Warmenhoven	set Alivia Keegan	+0.7
12	6-6	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Kill	Emily Warmenhoven	set Alivia Keegan	+0.8
13	6-7	BELMNT	NC ST	Attack err	Emily Warmenhoven		+0.5
14	7-7	NC ST	BELMNT×3	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Alivia Keegan	+0.6
15	8-7	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Kill	Emily Warmenhoven	set Alivia Keegan	+1.0
16	9-7	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Attack err	Talia Francom	blk Alexia Smollen	+1.2
17	9-8	BELMNT	NC ST	Serve err	BELMNT server		+0.7
18	9-9	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Emily Warmenhoven		+1.0
19	10-9	NC ST	BELMNT	Attack err	Jordan Smith	blk Emily Warmenhoven, Alexia Smollen	+0.8
20	10-10	BELMNT	NC ST×5	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+0.7
21	10-11	NC ST	NC ST×5	Bad set	Alivia Keegan		+1.0
22	10-12	NC ST	NC ST×5	Attack err	Brenna Kauffeld	blk Jordan Smith, Sophia Groom	+0.8
23	10-13	NC ST	NC ST×5	Attack err	Emily Warmenhoven	blk Jordan Smith, Sophia Groom	+0.7
24	10-14	NC ST	NC ST×5	Ace	NC ST server	aced Team	+0.5
25	11-14	NC ST	BELMNT	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.3
26	11-15	BELMNT	NC ST	Serve err	BELMNT server		+0.3
27	12-15	NC ST	BELMNT	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.3
28	13-15	BELMNT	BELMNT	Attack err	Britni Silver		+0.7
29	13-16	BELMNT	NC ST	Attack err	Brenna Kauffeld		+0.5
30	14-16	NC ST	BELMNT	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.5
31	15-16	BELMNT	BELMNT	Attack err	Rebecca Ring		+1.0
32	15-17	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.7
33	16-17	NC ST	BELMNT×4	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.8
34	17-17	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Attack err	Rebecca Ring	blk Alivia Keegan, Erin McMullen	+1.5
35	18-17	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Alivia Keegan	+1.9
36	19-17	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Alivia Keegan	+2.2
37	19-18	BELMNT	NC ST×7	Kill	Eva Long		+1.2
38	19-19	NC ST	NC ST×7	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+1.9
39	19-20	NC ST	NC ST×7	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+1.8
40	19-21	NC ST	NC ST×7	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+1.5
41	19-22	NC ST	NC ST×7	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+1.1
42	19-23	NC ST	NC ST×7	Ace	NC ST server	aced Madison Lansdown	+0.6
43	19-24	NC ST	NC ST×7	Attack err	Sydnee Nelson	blk Talia Francom, Jordan Smith	+0.2
44	20-24	NC ST	BELMNT	Attack err	Rebecca Ring		+0.0
45	20-25	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.4
2	1-1	NC ST	BELMNT	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.3
3	2-1	BELMNT	BELMNT	Attack err	Britni Silver	blk Alexia Smollen, Brenna Kauffeld	+0.5
4	2-2	BELMNT	NC ST×6	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.3
5	2-3	NC ST	NC ST×6	Bad set	Alivia Keegan		+0.4
6	2-4	NC ST	NC ST×6	Attack err	Brenna Kauffeld	blk Britni Silver, Sophia Groom	+0.4
7	2-5	NC ST	NC ST×6	Attack err	Connie Kofoed	blk Sophia Groom, Jordan Smith	+0.3
8	2-6	NC ST	NC ST×6	Kill	Britni Silver	set Kate Kilpatrick	+0.3
9	2-7	NC ST	NC ST×6	Kill	Britni Silver	set Sophia Groom	+0.2
10	3-7	NC ST	BELMNT	Attack err	Britni Silver		+0.1
11	4-7	BELMNT	BELMNT	Attack err	Britni Silver		+0.2
12	4-8	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.2
13	5-8	NC ST	BELMNT	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.2
14	6-8	BELMNT	BELMNT	Ace	BELMNT server	aced Britni Silver	+0.3
15	6-9	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.2
16	6-10	NC ST	NC ST	Ace	NC ST server	aced Madison Lansdown	+0.3
17	7-10	NC ST	BELMNT	Kill	Connie Kofoed	set Alivia Keegan	+0.2
18	7-11	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Eva Long		+0.2
19	7-12	NC ST	NC ST	Ace	NC ST server	aced Team	+0.2
20	8-12	NC ST	BELMNT	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.1
21	8-13	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.1
22	9-13	NC ST	BELMNT	Kill	Emily Warmenhoven	set Alivia Keegan	+0.1
23	9-14	BELMNT	NC ST×5	Kill	Talia Francom	set Mya Bolton	+0.2
24	9-15	NC ST	NC ST×5	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.2
25	9-16	NC ST	NC ST×5	Kill	Talia Francom		+0.1
26	9-17	NC ST	NC ST×5	Attack err	Brenna Kauffeld		+0.1
27	9-18	NC ST	NC ST×5	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+0.0
28	10-18	NC ST	BELMNT	Kill	Emily Warmenhoven	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.0
29	10-19	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.0
30	11-19	NC ST	BELMNT	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.0
31	11-20	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Norah Busch	set Eva Long	+0.0
32	12-20	NC ST	BELMNT	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.0
33	12-21	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Norah Busch	set Eva Long	+0.0
34	13-21	NC ST	BELMNT	Kill	Connie Kofoed	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.0
35	13-22	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Norah Busch	set Eva Long	+0.0
36	14-22	NC ST	BELMNT	Kill	Emily Warmenhoven	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.0
37	14-23	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Sa'Mya Dorsey	+0.0
38	15-23	NC ST	BELMNT	Attack err	Rebecca Ring		+0.0
39	15-24	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+0.0
40	16-24	NC ST	BELMNT	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.0
41	17-24	BELMNT	BELMNT	Attack err	Britni Silver		+0.0
42	17-25	BELMNT	NC ST	Serve err	BELMNT server		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	BELMNT	NC ST	Serve err	BELMNT server		+0.1
2	1-1	NC ST	BELMNT	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.1
3	1-2	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.1
4	2-2	NC ST	BELMNT	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.2
5	2-3	BELMNT	NC ST×3	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+0.1
6	2-4	NC ST	NC ST×3	Attack err	Emily Warmenhoven	blk Eva Long, Sophia Groom	+0.2
7	2-5	NC ST	NC ST×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
8	3-5	NC ST	BELMNT×3	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.1
9	4-5	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Attack err	Rebecca Ring		+0.2
10	5-5	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Kill	Emily Warmenhoven		+0.2
11	5-6	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.2
12	5-7	NC ST	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+0.2
13	6-7	NC ST	BELMNT	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.1
14	7-7	BELMNT	BELMNT	Kill	Connie Kofoed	set Alivia Keegan	+0.3
15	7-8	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.2
16	8-8	NC ST	BELMNT	Kill	Connie Kofoed	set Alivia Keegan	+0.2
17	8-9	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+0.2
18	9-9	NC ST	BELMNT	Kill	Connie Kofoed	set Mya Bolton	+0.2
19	10-9	BELMNT	BELMNT	Attack err	Britni Silver	blk Brenna Kauffeld, Erin McMullen	+0.3
20	10-10	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.2
21	10-11	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Erin McMullen	blk Sophia Groom, Britni Silver	+0.3
22	11-11	NC ST	BELMNT×4	Kill	Connie Kofoed	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.2
23	12-11	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Kill	Emily Warmenhoven	set Mya Bolton	+0.4
24	13-11	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Kill	Emily Warmenhoven	set Connie Kofoed	+0.4
25	14-11	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Kill	Emily Warmenhoven	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.5
26	14-12	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Eva Long	+0.3
27	14-13	NC ST	NC ST	Attack err	Emily Warmenhoven	blk Sophia Groom, Eva Long	+0.4
28	15-13	NC ST	BELMNT	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.4
29	16-13	BELMNT	BELMNT	Kill	Alexia Smollen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.5
30	16-14	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Eva Long		+0.3
31	17-14	NC ST	BELMNT	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.4
32	17-15	BELMNT	NC ST×4	Kill	Sophia Groom	set Eva Long	+0.3
33	17-16	NC ST	NC ST×4	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.5
34	17-17	NC ST	NC ST×4	Attack err	Teagan Brandsma		+0.5
35	17-18	NC ST	NC ST×4	Ace	NC ST server	aced Mya Bolton	+0.5
36	18-18	NC ST	BELMNT	Serve err	NC ST server		+0.3
37	18-19	BELMNT	NC ST×5	Serve err	BELMNT server		+0.3
38	18-20	NC ST	NC ST×5	Attack err	Alexia Smollen		+0.4
39	18-21	NC ST	NC ST×5	Attack err	Connie Kofoed	blk Jordan Smith, Talia Francom	+0.3
40	18-22	NC ST	NC ST×5	Kill	Rebecca Ring	set Eva Long	+0.2
41	18-23	NC ST	NC ST×5	Kill	Jordan Smith	set Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+0.1
42	19-23	NC ST	BELMNT×4	Attack err	Jordan Smith		+0.0
43	20-23	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Ace	BELMNT server	aced Zuzanna Maciejewicz	+0.1
44	21-23	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Attack err	Talia Francom		+0.2
45	22-23	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Alivia Keegan	+0.4
46	22-24	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Talia Francom	set Eva Long	+0.4
47	23-24	NC ST	BELMNT	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Alivia Keegan	+0.2
48	23-25	BELMNT	NC ST	Kill	Britni Silver	set Eva Long	+0.5

Score shown after each rally, Belmont first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.