Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 19, 2026

Lipscomb def. Belmont 3–1

Lipscomb won at Belmont 3-1 (25-20, 18-25, 25-17, 25-23) on Sat, Sep 19, 2026. Lipscomb's Ella Durham led with 18 kills.

Data through · final Sep 19

Set1234Sets
LIPSCO251825253
BELMNT202517231

Win probability

Belmont above 50 · Lipscomb below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.0% LIPSCOrally 179 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.0% to Lipscomb — set 4, LIPSCO 25-23 BELMNT. Attack error by Lucy Kay. BELMNT win probability 10% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

LIPSCO 48.4%51.6% BELMNT

Lipscomb wins

3-0
11.9%
3-1
18.1%
3-2
18.5%

Belmont wins

3-0
13.2%
3-1
19.4%
3-2
19.0%
LIPSCO break %
41.8% vs this opp
BELMNT break %
42.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Lucy KayAttack error+10.0%

    Attack error by Lucy Kay

    Set 4 · LIPSCO 25-23 BELMNT · LIPSCO 90% → 100%

  2. 02
    Connie KofoedKill+5.8%

    Kill by Connie Kofoed (set by Alivia Keegan)

    Set 4 · LIPSCO 24-23 BELMNT · BELMNT 4% → 10%

  3. 03
    LipscombAce+5.4%

    Lipscomb ace on Connie Kofoed

    Set 1 · LIPSCO 20-19 BELMNT · LIPSCO 47% → 53%

  4. 04

    Kill by Sydney Strenger

    Set 1 · LIPSCO 21-19 BELMNT · LIPSCO 53% → 58%

  5. 05

    Kill by Anna claire Brown (set by Kelsey Schenck)

    Set 3 · LIPSCO 14-12 BELMNT · LIPSCO 53% → 57%

  6. 06
    BelmontAce+4.6%

    Belmont ace on Ella Durham

    Set 1 · LIPSCO 17-18 BELMNT · BELMNT 51% → 56%

  7. 07
    Ella DurhamKill+4.5%

    Kill by Ella Durham (set by Kenzie Kucks)

    Set 3 · LIPSCO 12-11 BELMNT · LIPSCO 48% → 52%

  8. 08
    Lexi GuinnKill+4.5%

    Kill by Lexi Guinn (set by Kenzie Kucks)

    Set 4 · LIPSCO 23-20 BELMNT · LIPSCO 91% → 95%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418542.31011016310120
413223.4780131014317
47215.33300000212.59.5
46111.4554503110111.57.5
4000–000310000
4000–200300000
413334.2941238314318
44622-.091111400005
41011.0007021600001
4011-1.000000110000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals6220149.282575126386101193
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412445.17801074111.514.5
410529.17203080010.513.5
47413.2310001022310
47420.15000010010.57.5
42021.00031111300003
4038-.375100100000
44118.16700010010.54.5
4102.5006101810002
4000–021800002
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–100100000
4000–001100000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals4321137.161398360536685

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 LIPSCO · BELMNT 4

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 6 LIPSCOBELMNT 4

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 3 LIPSCOBELMNT 4

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 3 LIPSCOBELMNT 3

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 3 LIPSCOBELMNT 3

Bars above the line = Belmont leads, below = Lipscomb leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Lipscomb

SlotSideout %Break %
1
33%2/6
0%0/3
2
100%2/2
33%1/3
3
29%2/7
0%0/2
4
100%2/2
50%2/4
5
100%2/2
60%3/5
6
40%2/5
0%0/2
All
50%12/24
32%6/19

Belmont

SlotSideout %Break %
1
100%3/3
60%3/5
2
67%2/3
67%4/6
3
100%2/2
0%0/2
4
50%2/4
71%5/7
5
40%2/5
0%0/2
6
100%2/2
0%0/2
All
68%13/19
50%12/24

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

179 rallies

#LIPSCO-BELMNTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1BELMNTBELMNTAttack errBrooklyn Fuchs+2.5
21-1BELMNTLIPSCOKillKelsey Schenckset Kenzie Kucks+1.8
32-1LIPSCOLIPSCOKillElla Durhamset Kelsey Schenck+2.6
42-2LIPSCOBELMNTServe errLipscomb+1.9
53-2BELMNTLIPSCO×4KillBrooklyn Fuchsset Kelsey Schenck+1.9
64-2LIPSCOLIPSCO×4KillAnna claire Brownset Kelsey Schenck+2.6
75-2LIPSCOLIPSCO×4AceLipscombaced Connie Kofoed+2.5
86-2LIPSCOLIPSCO×4BlockedLucy Kayblk Brooklyn Fuchs+2.4
96-3LIPSCOBELMNTKillConnie Kofoedset Alivia Keegan+1.5
107-3BELMNTLIPSCOKillLexi Guinnset Kelsey Schenck+1.8
118-3LIPSCOLIPSCOBlockedBrenna Kauffeldblk Lexi Guinn, Sydney Strenger+2.2
128-4LIPSCOBELMNTServe errLipscomb+1.3
138-5BELMNT
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.2
149-5BELMNTLIPSCOBlockedErin Mcmullenblk Lexi Guinn, Sydney Strenger+1.8
1510-5LIPSCOLIPSCOKillSydney Strengerset Kelsey Schenck+2.2
1610-6LIPSCOBELMNTKillConnie Kofoedset Alivia Keegan+1.3
1710-7BELMNTBELMNTAttack errSydney Strenger+2.2
1811-7BELMNTLIPSCOBlockedEmily Warmenhovenblk Kelsey Schenck+1.9
1911-8LIPSCOBELMNTKillMya Boltonset Emily Warmenhoven+1.6
2011-9BELMNTBELMNTKillLucy Kayset Alivia Keegan+2.6
2112-9BELMNTLIPSCOKillElla Durhamset Kelsey Schenck+2.2
2212-10LIPSCOBELMNTKillLucy Kayset Alivia Keegan+1.9
2313-10BELMNTLIPSCOKillElla Durham+2.2
2414-10LIPSCOLIPSCOAttack errEmily Warmenhoven+2.8
2514-11LIPSCOBELMNTKillBrenna Kauffeldset Alivia Keegan+1.7
2615-11BELMNTLIPSCOKillElla Durhamset Kelsey Schenck+2.0
2716-11LIPSCOLIPSCOBlockedBrenna Kauffeldblk Lexi Guinn+2.3
2816-12LIPSCOBELMNT×3KillLucy Kayset Alivia Keegan+1.3
2916-13BELMNT
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.3
3016-14BELMNTBELMNT×3AceBelmontaced Lexi Guinn+2.9
3117-14BELMNTLIPSCOKillBrooklyn Fuchsset Kelsey Schenck+2.6
3217-15LIPSCOBELMNT×4KillConnie Kofoedset Alivia Keegan+2.2
3317-16BELMNTBELMNT×4Attack errLexi Guinn+3.7
3417-17BELMNTBELMNT×4AceBelmontaced Ella Durham+4.3
3517-18BELMNTBELMNT×4AceBelmontaced Ella Durham+4.6
3618-18BELMNTLIPSCOAttack errBrenna Kauffeldset Alivia Keegan+3.3
3718-19LIPSCOBELMNTKillConnie Kofoedset Alivia Keegan+3.6
3819-19BELMNTLIPSCO×6KillLexi Guinn+3.5
3920-19LIPSCOLIPSCO×6AceLipscombaced Connie Kofoed+5.4
4021-19LIPSCOLIPSCO×6KillSydney Strenger+5.3
4122-19LIPSCOLIPSCO×6KillElla Durhamset Kelsey Schenck+4.4
4223-19LIPSCOLIPSCO×6KillElla Durhamset Makenna Kirlin+2.9
4324-19LIPSCOLIPSCO×6KillSydney Strengerset Kelsey Schenck+1.3
4424-20LIPSCOBELMNTServe errLipscomb+0.2
4525-20BELMNTLIPSCOKillElla Durhamset Kelsey Schenck+0.6
Set 2
10-1LIPSCOBELMNT×3Serve errLipscomb+1.8
20-2BELMNTBELMNT×3KillBrenna Kauffeldset Mya Bolton+2.5
30-3BELMNTBELMNT×3Attack errAnna claire Brown+2.4
41-3BELMNTLIPSCOServe errBelmont+1.7
52-3LIPSCOLIPSCOKillLexi Guinnset Kelsey Schenck+2.5
62-4LIPSCOBELMNTBlockedAnna claire Brownblk Lucy Kay+1.9
73-4BELMNTLIPSCOKillLexi Guinnset Kelsey Schenck+1.8
83-5LIPSCOBELMNT×4KillConnie Kofoedset Alivia Keegan+2.0
93-6BELMNTBELMNT×4Attack errElla Durham+2.6
103-7BELMNTBELMNT×4Attack errAnna claire Brown+2.4
113-8BELMNTBELMNT×4KillErin Mcmullenset Alivia Keegan+2.1
124-8BELMNTLIPSCO×3KillSydney Strenger+1.3
135-8LIPSCOLIPSCO×3KillSydney Strenger+2.2
146-8LIPSCOLIPSCO×3AceLipscombaced Mya Bolton+2.5
156-9LIPSCOBELMNTKillConnie Kofoedset Alivia Keegan+2.0
167-9BELMNTLIPSCOKillLexi Guinnset Kelsey Schenck+1.8
178-9LIPSCOLIPSCOKillSydney Strengerset Kelsey Schenck+2.9
188-10LIPSCOBELMNTKillErin Mcmullenset Alivia Keegan+2.2
199-10BELMNTLIPSCOKillSydney Strengerset Kelsey Schenck+2.1
209-11LIPSCOBELMNTKillElla Durham+2.3
219-12BELMNTBELMNTAttack errElla Durham+3.0
2210-12BELMNTLIPSCOKillElla Durhamset Kelsey Schenck+2.0
2310-13LIPSCOBELMNTKillBrenna Kauffeldset Alivia Keegan+2.2
2410-14BELMNTBELMNTKillLucy Kayset Alivia Keegan+2.7
2511-14BELMNTLIPSCOKillBrooklyn Fuchsset Kelsey Schenck+1.6
2611-15LIPSCOBELMNTKillBrenna Kauffeldset Mya Bolton+2.0
2712-15BELMNTLIPSCOKillBrooklyn Fuchsset Kelsey Schenck+1.7
2812-16LIPSCOBELMNT×3KillConnie Kofoedset Alivia Keegan+2.1
2912-17BELMNTBELMNT×3KillAlivia Keeganset Mya Bolton+2.3
3012-18BELMNTBELMNT×3Attack errAnna claire Brown+1.6
3113-18BELMNTLIPSCOKillLexi Guinnset Anna claire Brown+0.8
3213-19LIPSCOBELMNTAttack errKelsey Schenckset Ella Durham+1.1
3314-19BELMNTLIPSCO×3KillLexi Guinnset Kelsey Schenck+0.7
3415-19LIPSCOLIPSCO×3Attack errEmily Warmenhoven+1.5
3516-19LIPSCOLIPSCO×3KillKelsey Schenckset Lexi Guinn+2.2
3616-20LIPSCOBELMNTKillSydnee Nelsonset Alivia Keegan+2.2
3717-20BELMNTLIPSCOKillElla Durhamset Kelsey Schenck+1.5
3817-21LIPSCOBELMNT×3KillSydney Strengerset Kenzie Kucks+2.2
3917-22BELMNTBELMNT×3Serve errBelmont+1.9
4017-23BELMNTBELMNT×3KillSydnee Nelsonset Mya Bolton+0.9
4118-23BELMNTLIPSCOKillBrooklyn Fuchsset Kelsey Schenck+0.2
4218-24LIPSCOBELMNTBlockedKenzie Kucksblk Lucy Kay, Anna claire Brown+0.5
4318-25BELMNTBELMNTKillBrenna Kauffeld+0.1
Set 3
11-0BELMNTLIPSCOKillKelsey Schenckset Ella Durham+2.4
21-1LIPSCOBELMNT×3KillSydnee Nelsonset Alivia Keegan+2.4
31-2BELMNTBELMNT×3Attack errElla Durham+3.4
41-3BELMNTBELMNT×3AceBelmontaced Ella Durham+3.4
52-3BELMNTLIPSCOKillElla Durhamset Kelsey Schenck+2.4
62-4LIPSCOBELMNTBlockedLexi Guinnblk Lucy Kay, Brenna Kauffeld+2.5
72-5BELMNTBELMNTKillBrenna Kauffeldset Alivia Keegan+3.3
83-5BELMNTLIPSCOKillBrooklyn Fuchsset Kelsey Schenck+2.2
94-5LIPSCOLIPSCOKillLexi Guinnset Kelsey Schenck+3.4
104-6LIPSCOBELMNTKillConnie Kofoedset Alivia Keegan+2.6
115-6BELMNTLIPSCO×3Bad setAlivia Keegan+2.5
126-6LIPSCOLIPSCO×3BlockedErin Mcmullenblk Lexi Guinn, Sydney Strenger+3.7
137-6LIPSCOLIPSCO×3Attack errConnie Kofoed+3.9
147-7LIPSCOBELMNTServe errLipscomb+2.8
158-7BELMNTLIPSCOKillSydnee Nelsonset Alivia Keegan+2.9
169-7LIPSCOLIPSCOKillElla Durhamset Kelsey Schenck+4.0
179-8LIPSCOBELMNTKillErin Mcmullenset Alivia Keegan+2.7
1810-8BELMNTLIPSCOServe errBelmont+3.0
1910-9LIPSCOBELMNT×3Serve errLipscomb+2.8
2010-10BELMNTBELMNT×3AceBelmontaced Grace Jones+4.2
2110-11BELMNTBELMNT×3KillAlivia Keegan+4.4
2211-11BELMNTLIPSCOKillElla Durhamset Kelsey Schenck+3.1
2312-11LIPSCOLIPSCOKillElla Durhamset Kenzie Kucks+4.5
2412-12LIPSCOBELMNTServe errLipscomb+3.3
2513-12BELMNTLIPSCO×3Attack errConnie Kofoedset Alivia Keegan+3.4
2614-12LIPSCOLIPSCO×3KillAnna claire Brownset Kelsey Schenck+4.7
2715-12LIPSCOLIPSCO×3Attack errConnie Kofoed+4.4
2815-13LIPSCOBELMNTBlockedBrooklyn Fuchsblk Lucy Kay+2.8
2916-13BELMNTLIPSCO×3KillAnna claire Brown+3.3
3017-13LIPSCO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.9
3118-13LIPSCOLIPSCO×3Attack errErin Mcmullen+3.1
3218-14LIPSCOBELMNTServe errLipscomb+1.6
3318-15BELMNTBELMNTServe errBelmont+3.0
3419-15LIPSCO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.9
3520-15LIPSCOLIPSCOKillKelsey Schenck+3.0
3620-16LIPSCOBELMNTBlockedLexi Guinnblk Connie Kofoed+1.3
3721-16BELMNTLIPSCOKillSydney Strengerset Kelsey Schenck+2.0
3822-16LIPSCOLIPSCOAceLipscombaced Connie Kofoed+1.6
3922-17LIPSCOBELMNTServe errLipscomb+0.5
4023-17BELMNTLIPSCOKillElla Durhamset Kelsey Schenck+0.9
4124-17LIPSCOLIPSCOBlockedSydnee Nelsonblk Brooklyn Fuchs, Kelsey Schenck+0.4
4224-18LIPSCOBELMNTKillLucy Kayset Jordan Czajkowski+0.1
4325-18BELMNTLIPSCOKillElla Durhamset Kelsey Schenck+0.1
Set 4
10-1LIPSCOBELMNTKillBrenna Kauffeld+2.5
21-1BELMNTLIPSCOKillElla Durhamset Kelsey Schenck+2.5
32-1LIPSCOLIPSCOKillLexi Guinnset Kenzie Kucks+3.5
42-2LIPSCOBELMNTKillBrenna Kauffeldset Alivia Keegan+2.5
53-2BELMNTLIPSCOKillLexi Guinnset Kelsey Schenck+2.6
64-2LIPSCOLIPSCOBlockedBrenna Kauffeldblk Lexi Guinn, Sydney Strenger+3.6
74-3LIPSCOBELMNTServe errLipscomb+2.5
85-3BELMNTLIPSCOKillSydney Strengerset Kelsey Schenck+2.6
96-3LIPSCOLIPSCOKillLexi Guinnset Kelsey Schenck+3.5
106-4LIPSCOBELMNTKillConnie Kofoedset Alivia Keegan+2.4
117-4BELMNTLIPSCOKillSydney Strengerset Kelsey Schenck+2.6
128-4LIPSCOLIPSCOBlockedLucy Kayblk Ella Durham+3.3
138-5LIPSCOBELMNT×3Serve errLipscomb+2.1
148-6BELMNTBELMNT×3Attack errElla Durham+3.4
158-7BELMNTBELMNT×3Attack errSydney Strenger+3.7
169-7BELMNTLIPSCOAttack errErin Mcmullenset Alivia Keegan+2.9
179-8LIPSCOBELMNTServe errLipscomb+2.8
189-9BELMNTBELMNTAttack errAllison Barrick+4.1
1910-9BELMNTLIPSCOBlockedBrenna Kauffeldblk Brooklyn Fuchs+3.1
2011-9LIPSCOLIPSCOKillElla Durhamset Kenzie Kucks+4.3
2111-10LIPSCOBELMNTKillErin Mcmullen+2.9
2212-10BELMNTLIPSCOKillElla Durhamset Kelsey Schenck+3.2
2312-11LIPSCOBELMNTKillErin Mcmullenset Alivia Keegan+3.0
2413-11BELMNTLIPSCOKillBrooklyn Fuchsset Kelsey Schenck+3.3
2514-11LIPSCO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+4.3
2614-12LIPSCOBELMNTKillBrenna Kauffeldset Alivia Keegan+2.7
2715-12BELMNTLIPSCOKillAnna claire Brownset Kelsey Schenck+3.2
2816-12LIPSCOLIPSCOAttack errConnie Kofoed+3.9
2916-13LIPSCOBELMNTKillConnie Kofoedset Alivia Keegan+2.3
3016-14BELMNTBELMNTAceBelmontaced Lexi Guinn+4.0
3117-14BELMNTLIPSCOKillSydney Strengerset Kelsey Schenck+3.5
3217-15LIPSCOBELMNTKillLucy Kayset Alivia Keegan+2.9
3318-15BELMNTLIPSCO×3KillSydney Strenger+3.6
3419-15LIPSCOLIPSCO×3AceLipscombaced Connie Kofoed+4.1
3520-15LIPSCOLIPSCO×3KillKelsey Schenckset Makenna Kirlin+3.0
3620-16LIPSCOBELMNTKillErin Mcmullenset Alivia Keegan+1.3
3720-17BELMNTBELMNTKillSydnee Nelson+2.9
3821-17BELMNTLIPSCOKillKelsey Schenckset Kenzie Kucks+3.0
3921-18LIPSCOBELMNTKillErin Mcmullenset Alivia Keegan+1.9
4021-19BELMNTBELMNTAceBelmontaced Allison Barrick+4.1
4122-19BELMNTLIPSCOKillElla Durhamset Kelsey Schenck+4.3
4222-20LIPSCOBELMNTBlockedAnna claire Brownblk Erin Mcmullen, Connie Kofoed+2.8
4323-20BELMNTLIPSCOKillLexi Guinnset Kenzie Kucks+4.5
4424-20LIPSCOLIPSCOBlockedLucy Kayblk Sydney Strenger+3.5
4524-21LIPSCOBELMNT×3KillConnie Kofoedset Alivia Keegan+0.7
4624-22BELMNTBELMNT×3AceBelmontaced Lexi Guinn+2.4
4724-23BELMNTBELMNT×3KillConnie Kofoedset Alivia Keegan+5.8
4825-23BELMNTLIPSCOAttack errLucy Kayset Kelsey Schenck+10.0

Score shown after each rally, Lipscomb first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).