FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayOVC

0:3

HomeSEC

Tennessee def. Morehead St. 3–0

(25-16, 25-18, 25-12)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MOREST	16	18	12	0
TENN	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TENN above 50 · MOREST below

Biggest swing: 0.1% to Morehead St. — set 2, MOREST 16-16 TENN. Morehead St. ace on Raegan Burns. TENN win probability 100% → 100%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MOREST 0.3%99.7% TENN

Morehead St. wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.1%

3-2

0.2%

Tennessee wins

3-0

83.1%

3-1

14.9%

3-2

1.7%

MOREST break %: 32.4% vs this opp
TENN break %: 53.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
MOREST serverAce+0.1%
Morehead St. ace on Raegan Burns
Set 2 · MOREST 16-16 TENN · MOREST 0% → 0%
02
Mallory MathenyBad set+0.1%
Bad set by Mallory Matheny
Set 2 · MOREST 14-14 TENN · MOREST 0% → 0%
03
TENN serverAce+0.1%
Tennessee ace on Team
Set 2 · MOREST 16-18 TENN · TENN 100% → 100%
04
Jolene OddoAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Jolene Oddo
Set 1 · MOREST 1-0 TENN · MOREST 0% → 0%
05
Maggie DosticKill+0.1%
Kill by Maggie Dostic (set by Caroline Kerr)
Set 2 · MOREST 16-17 TENN · TENN 100% → 100%
06
Ella WarrickAttack error+0.1%
Ella Warrick stuffed by Jalyn Stout & Camille Perry
Set 2 · MOREST 14-16 TENN · TENN 100% → 100%
07
Amelia NottKill+0.1%
Kill by Amelia Nott (set by Josie Certa)
Set 2 · MOREST 17-18 TENN · MOREST 0% → 0%
08
Amelia NottAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Amelia Nott
Set 2 · MOREST 17-19 TENN · TENN 100% → 100%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Morehead St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
9Amelia NottMB	3	4	3	17	.059	2	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
5Ella WarrickOH	3	4	4	22	.000	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	4.5
2Haidyn CarterMB	3	3	2	9	.111	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
17Sydney SennettS	3	1	0	3	.333	11	0	0	5	0	0	0	1
15Anna SchiltzMB	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
3Tinsley BrownDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	0
14Hollan EverettMB	3	6	7	29	-.034	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
6Courtney FitzgeraldDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	12	0	0	0	1
12Josie CertaS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	1	2	0	1	0.5	0.5
1Riley McCloskeyOH	2	1	1	5	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
13Norah CampbellDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22Reagan BaxterMB	1	2	0	2	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
11Jasmine DanielsS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Kennedy TinchDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		21	17	89	.045	20	1	6	28	5	10	5	46

Tennesseehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Morgan WilliamsOH	3	12	3	26	.346	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12
15Maggie DosticOH	3	10	0	18	.556	1	2	2	4	0	0	0	0	12
7Jalyn StoutS	3	7	2	15	.333	1	0	1	3	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
22Jolene OddoMB	3	3	2	7	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
11Caroline KerrS	3	2	1	4	.250	21	0	1	8	0	0	2	1	3
16Chelsea SuttonMB	1	3	0	4	.750	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
14Sydney JaynesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	1	7	0	0	0	0	2
35Mallory MathenyS	3	1	1	4	.000	11	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
1Emma FrietchL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
13Raegan BurnsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	1	11	1	0	0	0	0
3Camille PerryMB	2	3	2	6	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	5.5
8Jade WilliamsOPP	1	2	0	3	.667	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2
10Alaina JarrettMB	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	12	88	.352	40	5	9	38	1	1	12	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 MOREST · TENN 15

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 3 MORESTTENN 6

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 3 MORESTTENN 5

Set 3

12-25

Longest run 2 MORESTTENN 15

Bars above the line = Tennessee leads, below = Morehead St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Morehead St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	38%6/16	45%5/11
2	67%6/9	25%2/8
3	24%5/21	40%4/10
4	50%5/10	17%1/6
5	57%4/7	44%4/9
6	40%4/10	0%0/4
All	41%30/73	33%16/48

Tennessee

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	55%6/11	64%7/11
2	60%6/10	54%7/13
3	67%6/9	14%1/7
4	63%5/8	77%17/22
5	83%5/6	50%5/10
6	100%4/4	60%6/10
All	67%32/48	59%43/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

121 rallies

Rally log

#	MOREST-TENN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Jolene Oddo		+0.1
2	1-1	MOREST	TENN×6	Kill	Morgan Williams	set Raegan Burns	+0.0
3	1-2	TENN	TENN×6	Attack err	Amelia Nott		+0.0
4	1-3	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Morgan Williams	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
5	1-4	TENN	TENN×6	Serve err	TENN server		+0.0
6	1-5	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Caroline Kerr	set Jalyn Stout	+0.0
7	1-6	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Morgan Williams	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
8	2-6	TENN	MOREST	Attack err	Morgan Williams	blk Anna Schiltz, Amelia Nott	+0.0
9	2-7	MOREST	TENN	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
10	3-7	TENN	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+0.0
11	4-7	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Amelia Nott	+0.0
12	4-8	MOREST	TENN×3	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.0
13	4-9	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
14	4-10	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
15	5-10	TENN	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+0.0
16	5-11	MOREST	TENN	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
17	6-11	TENN	MOREST	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Josie Certa	+0.0
18	6-12	MOREST	TENN×3	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
19	6-13	TENN	TENN×3	Attack err	Haidyn Carter		+0.0
20	6-14	TENN	TENN×3	Attack err	Ella Warrick		+0.0
21	7-14	TENN	MOREST	Kill	Riley McCloskey	set Josie Certa	+0.0
22	7-15	MOREST	TENN×3	Kill	Caroline Kerr	set Raegan Burns	+0.0
23	7-16	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Morgan Williams	set Raegan Burns	+0.0
24	7-17	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Morgan Williams	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
25	8-17	TENN	MOREST	Attack err	Caroline Kerr		+0.0
26	9-17	MOREST	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+0.0
27	9-18	MOREST	TENN	Attack err	Ella Warrick	blk Caroline Kerr, Jolene Oddo	+0.0
28	10-18	TENN	MOREST×3	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+0.0
29	11-18	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Sydney Sennett	+0.0
30	12-18	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Morgan Williams		+0.0
31	12-19	MOREST	TENN	Kill	Morgan Williams	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
32	13-19	TENN	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+0.0
33	13-20	MOREST	TENN	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.0
34	14-20	TENN	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+0.0
35	14-21	MOREST	TENN×4	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Sydney Jaynes	+0.0
36	14-22	TENN	TENN×4	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Mallory Matheny	+0.0
37	14-23	TENN	TENN×4	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Mallory Matheny	+0.0
38	14-24	TENN	TENN×4	Bad set	Josie Certa		+0.0
39	15-24	TENN	MOREST	Serve err	TENN server		+0.0
40	16-24	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Jolene Oddo		+0.0
41	16-25	MOREST	TENN	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Mallory Matheny	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	TENN	TENN×3	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+0.0
2	0-2	TENN	TENN×3	Attack err	Hollan Everett	blk Jolene Oddo, Mallory Matheny	+0.0
3	0-3	TENN	TENN×3	Ace	TENN server	aced Team	+0.0
4	1-3	TENN	MOREST	Serve err	TENN server		+0.0
5	1-4	MOREST	TENN×3	Bad set	Hollan Everett		+0.0
6	1-5	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Morgan Williams	set Mallory Matheny	+0.0
7	1-6	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Morgan Williams	set Mallory Matheny	+0.0
8	2-6	TENN	MOREST	Serve err	TENN server		+0.0
9	2-7	MOREST	TENN	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+0.0
10	3-7	TENN	MOREST	Serve err	TENN server		+0.0
11	3-8	MOREST	TENN	Kill	Morgan Williams	set Mallory Matheny	+0.0
12	4-8	TENN	MOREST×3	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Josie Certa	+0.0
13	5-8	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Jalyn Stout		+0.0
14	6-8	MOREST	MOREST×3	Kill	Reagan Baxter	set Amelia Nott	+0.0
15	6-9	MOREST	TENN	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.0
16	7-9	TENN	MOREST	Attack err	Jalyn Stout	blk Amelia Nott, Ella Warrick	+0.0
17	7-10	MOREST	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Mallory Matheny	+0.0
18	8-10	TENN	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.0
19	8-11	MOREST	TENN	Bad set	Amelia Nott		+0.0
20	8-12	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+0.0
21	9-12	TENN	MOREST	Serve err	TENN server		+0.0
22	9-13	MOREST	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Mallory Matheny	+0.0
23	10-13	TENN	MOREST×3	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Sydney Sennett	+0.0
24	11-13	MOREST	MOREST×3	Bad set	Mallory Matheny		+0.0
25	12-13	MOREST	MOREST×3	Attack err	Camille Perry	blk Haidyn Carter, Josie Certa	+0.0
26	12-14	MOREST	TENN	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.0
27	13-14	TENN	MOREST	Kill	Reagan Baxter	set Josie Certa	+0.0
28	14-14	MOREST	MOREST	Bad set	Mallory Matheny		+0.1
29	14-15	MOREST	TENN	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.1
30	14-16	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Ella Warrick	blk Jalyn Stout, Camille Perry	+0.1
31	15-16	TENN	MOREST	Kill	Haidyn Carter	set Josie Certa	+0.0
32	16-16	MOREST	MOREST	Ace	MOREST server	aced Raegan Burns	+0.1
33	16-17	MOREST	TENN	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
34	16-18	TENN	TENN	Ace	TENN server	aced Team	+0.1
35	17-18	TENN	MOREST	Kill	Amelia Nott	set Josie Certa	+0.1
36	17-19	MOREST	TENN×5	Attack err	Amelia Nott		+0.1
37	17-20	TENN	TENN×5	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
38	17-21	TENN	TENN×5	Attack err	Amelia Nott		+0.0
39	17-22	TENN	TENN×5	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
40	17-23	TENN	TENN×5	Attack err	Ella Warrick	blk Jolene Oddo, Caroline Kerr	+0.0
41	18-23	TENN	MOREST	Serve err	TENN server		+0.0
42	18-24	MOREST	TENN	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
43	18-25	TENN	TENN	Ace	TENN server	aced Team	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	MOREST	MOREST	Bad set	Caroline Kerr		+0.0
2	2-0	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Morgan Williams		+0.0
3	2-1	MOREST	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
4	3-1	TENN	MOREST	Attack err	Camille Perry	blk Amelia Nott, Hollan Everett	+0.0
5	3-2	MOREST	TENN	Kill	Morgan Williams	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
6	3-3	TENN	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
7	4-3	TENN	MOREST	Serve err	TENN server		+0.0
8	4-4	MOREST	TENN×15	Kill	Morgan Williams	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
9	4-5	TENN	TENN×15	Attack err	Hollan Everett		+0.0
10	4-6	TENN	TENN×15	Kill	Camille Perry	set Sydney Jaynes	+0.0
11	4-7	TENN	TENN×15	Ace	TENN server	aced Team	+0.0
12	4-8	TENN	TENN×15	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
13	4-9	TENN	TENN×15	Ace	TENN server	aced Team	+0.0
14	4-10	TENN	TENN×15	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Maggie Dostic	+0.0
15	4-11	TENN	TENN×15	Attack err	Hollan Everett	blk Jalyn Stout, Camille Perry	+0.0
16	4-12	TENN	TENN×15	Kill	Camille Perry	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
17	4-13	TENN	TENN×15	Attack err	Hollan Everett	blk Camille Perry	+0.0
18	4-14	TENN	TENN×15	Attack err	Riley McCloskey		+0.0
19	4-15	TENN	TENN×15	Kill	Camille Perry	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
20	4-16	TENN	TENN×15	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
21	4-17	TENN	TENN×15	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Raegan Burns	+0.0
22	4-18	TENN	TENN×15	Attack err	Haidyn Carter		+0.0
23	5-18	TENN	MOREST	Serve err	TENN server		+0.0
24	5-19	MOREST	TENN	Serve err	MOREST server		+0.0
25	5-20	TENN	TENN	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Mallory Matheny	+0.0
26	6-20	TENN	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Riley McCloskey	+0.0
27	6-21	MOREST	TENN	Kill	Jade Williams	set Mallory Matheny	+0.0
28	7-21	TENN	MOREST	Serve err	TENN server		+0.0
29	7-22	MOREST	TENN	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Mallory Matheny	+0.0
30	8-22	TENN	MOREST	Kill	Ella Warrick	set Sydney Sennett	+0.0
31	9-22	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Alaina Jarrett		+0.0
32	9-23	MOREST	TENN	Kill	Morgan Williams	set Mallory Matheny	+0.0
33	10-23	TENN	MOREST	Kill	Sydney Sennett	set Hollan Everett	+0.0
34	10-24	MOREST	TENN	Kill	Mallory Matheny	set Sydney Sennett	+0.0
35	11-24	TENN	MOREST	Kill	Hollan Everett	set Sydney Sennett	+0.0
36	12-24	MOREST	MOREST	Attack err	Mallory Matheny	blk Haidyn Carter, Riley McCloskey	+0.0
37	12-25	MOREST	TENN	Kill	Jade Williams	set Raegan Burns	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Morehead St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.