Southern Ill. vs Belmont Volleyball: Belmont Wins 3-0

FinalThu, Oct 8, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Belmont 89.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 8, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Belmont beat visiting Southern Ill. 3-0 (25-15, 25-20, 25-20) on Thu, Oct 8, 2026. Belmont's Erin McMullen led with 14 kills, and Mya Bolton added 13 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 4:00 PM CT · final Oct 8

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SIU	15	20	20	0
BELMNT	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.414 and 14 kills for Erin Mcmullen as Belmont rolled past Southern Ill.

No single rally moved win probability more than 1.5 points. Southern Ill. peaked at 13% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. Belmont went in as RallyIQ's 90% pick.

Southern Ill.Belmont

Break %+16.6 pts
36.853.4
39 of 73 on serve vs 21 of 57, so Southern Ill.'s sideout was 46.6%.
Hitting+.148
.061.209
40 K / 16 E against 30 K / 23 E.
Longest run+4
59
Belmont scored 9 straight in the third set to turn a 9–14 deficit into an 18–14 lead. That set ended 25–20.

Belmont above 50Southern Ill. belowMax swing 1.5%

Southern Ill.Belmont

Aces: Southern Ill. 3·Belmont 5
Serve err: Southern Ill. 6·Belmont 6
Blocks: Southern Ill. 7·Belmont 90 BS · 14 BA vs 3 BS · 12 BA
Digs: Southern Ill. 53·Belmont 50

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Belmont above 50 · Southern Ill. below

Biggest swing: 1.5% to Southern Ill. — set 1, SIU 8-7 BELMNT. Kill by Beatriz Piaia (set by Lillian Dempkey). BELMNT win probability 89% → 88%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SIU 8.6%91.4% BELMNT

Southern Ill. wins

3-0

1.1%

3-1

2.6%

3-2

4.9%

Belmont wins

3-0

46.9%

3-1

31.4%

3-2

13.1%

SIU break %: 38.6% vs this opp
BELMNT break %: 49.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Beatriz PiaiaKill+1.5%
Kill by Beatriz Piaia (set by Lillian Dempkey)
Set 1 · SIU 8-7 BELMNT · SIU 11% → 12%
02
Emily WarmenhovenKill+1.4%
Kill by Emily Warmenhoven
Set 1 · SIU 9-10 BELMNT · BELMNT 89% → 90%
03
Southern Ill.Ace+1.3%
Southern Ill. ace
Set 1 · SIU 6-6 BELMNT · SIU 10% → 11%
04
Beatriz Piaia&Ella SwansigerBlock+1.3%
Sydnee Nelson stuffed by Beatriz Piaia & Ella Swansiger
Set 2 · SIU 10-7 BELMNT · SIU 8% → 9%
05
Ella SwansigerAttack error+1.2%
Attack error by Ella Swansiger
Set 1 · SIU 9-11 BELMNT · BELMNT 90% → 91%
06
McKenzie MoellerKill+1.2%
Kill by McKenzie Moeller (set by Jillian Shaneyfelt)
Set 1 · SIU 9-8 BELMNT · SIU 11% → 13%
07
McKenzie MoellerKill+1.2%
Kill by McKenzie Moeller (set by Ella McFarland)
Set 2 · SIU 9-7 BELMNT · SIU 7% → 8%
08
Sydnee NelsonKill+1.1%
Kill by Sydnee Nelson (set by Alivia Keegan)
Set 2 · SIU 10-9 BELMNT · BELMNT 92% → 93%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Southern Ill.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
3McKenzie MoellerOH	3	7	5	29	.069	0	0	1	4	3	1	0.5	7.5
13Beatriz PiaiaMB	3	4	4	18	.000	0	1	0	0	0	5	2.5	7.5
4Ella McFarlandOPP	3	2	0	6	.333	15	0	1	3	0	1	0.5	2.5
14Ella SwansigerOH	2	3	6	19	-.158	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
17Julia LaidigDS	2	0	0	0	–	1	2	1	4	2	0	0	2
20Valentina ZevallosMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15Ida AlmkvistOH	3	7	4	18	.167	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.5	7.5
2Natalie VanceOPP	3	6	3	18	.167	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	7.5
11Jillian ShaneyfeltL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	9	0	0	20	0	0	0	0
8Alexandria ArringtonS	2	1	1	6	.000	0	0	0	3	0	2	1	2
21Isabella Del RealL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	0
9Lillian DempkeyS	2	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	6	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	23	114	.061	29	3	6	53	5	14	7	55

Belmonthome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Erin McMullenMB	3	14	2	29	.414	1	0	0	1	0	1	4	3	17
10Sydnee NelsonOH	3	10	6	32	.125	1	3	3	3	0	0	0	0	13
3Brenna KauffeldOH	3	9	1	18	.444	1	1	0	9	0	1	1	1.5	11.5
9Emily WarmenhovenOH	3	2	3	18	-.056	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	3
15Lucy KayMB	3	2	2	11	.000	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	3
2Jordan CzajkowskiS	3	0	0	0	–	20	0	0	12	0	1	1	1.5	1.5
7Alivia KeeganS	3	3	2	7	.143	10	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	4
12Mya BoltonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	0	13	0	0	0	0	1
0Lauren EvansDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	0	0
4Madison LansdownL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	16	115	.209	36	5	6	50	3	3	12	9	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 SIU · BELMNT 9

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 3 SIUBELMNT 7

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 SIUBELMNT 5

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 5 SIUBELMNT 9

Bars above the line = Belmont leads, below = Southern Ill. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Southern Ill.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	21%6/28	33%3/9
2	60%6/10	14%1/7
3	67%6/9	33%3/9
4	55%6/11	25%2/8
5	100%6/6	57%8/14
6	44%4/9	40%4/10
All	47%34/73	37%21/57

Belmont

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	50%5/10
2	67%6/9	78%21/27
3	100%6/6	33%3/9
4	60%6/10	25%2/8
5	40%6/15	40%4/10
6	83%5/6	44%4/9
All	63%36/57	53%39/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

130 rallies

#	SIU-BELMNT	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Sydnee Nelson	set Erin McMullen	+0.7
2	0-2	BELMNT	BELMNT	Ace	Belmont	aced Julia Laidig	+0.9
3	1-2	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Beatriz Piaia	set Ella McFarland	+0.7
4	1-3	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Mya Bolton	+0.7
5	2-3	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Ella McFarland	+0.7
6	2-4	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Mya Bolton	+0.7
7	3-4	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Ida Almkvist	set Ella McFarland	+0.8
8	3-5	SIU	BELMNT	Serve err	Southern Ill.		+0.7
9	3-6	BELMNT	BELMNT	Kill	Sydnee Nelson	set Alivia Keegan	+0.9
10	4-6	BELMNT	SIU×3	Serve err	Belmont		+0.6
11	5-6	SIU	SIU×3	Attack err	Lucy Kay		+1.0
12	6-6	SIU	SIU×3	Ace	Southern Ill.		+1.3
13	6-7	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Sydnee Nelson	set Alivia Keegan	+0.9
14	7-7	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Jillian Shaneyfelt	+1.0
15	8-7	SIU	SIU	Kill	Beatriz Piaia	set Lillian Dempkey	+1.5
16	8-8	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Sydnee Nelson	set Alivia Keegan	+1.1
17	9-8	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Jillian Shaneyfelt	+1.2
18	9-9	SIU	BELMNT×7	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+1.1
19	9-10	BELMNT	BELMNT×7	Kill	Emily Warmenhoven		+1.4
20	9-11	BELMNT	BELMNT×7	Attack err	Ella Swansiger		+1.2
21	9-12	BELMNT	BELMNT×7	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Jordan Czajkowski	+1.0
22	9-13	BELMNT	BELMNT×7	Blocked	Beatriz Piaia	blk Jordan Czajkowski, Erin McMullen	+0.8
23	9-14	BELMNT	BELMNT×7	Kill	Emily Warmenhoven	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.6
24	9-15	BELMNT	BELMNT×7	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.5
25	10-15	BELMNT	SIU	Serve err	Belmont		+0.3
26	10-16	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.3
27	10-17	BELMNT	BELMNT	Attack err	Ella Swansiger		+0.3
28	11-17	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Ida Almkvist	set Ella McFarland	+0.1
29	11-18	SIU	BELMNT	Serve err	Southern Ill.		+0.2
30	12-18	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Ella McFarland	+0.1
31	12-19	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Lucy Kay	set Alivia Keegan	+0.2
32	13-19	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Ida Almkvist	set Lillian Dempkey	+0.1
33	13-20	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Sydnee Nelson	set Alivia Keegan	+0.2
34	14-20	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Lillian Dempkey	+0.1
35	14-21	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Sydnee Nelson	set Alivia Keegan	+0.1
36	15-21	BELMNT	SIU	Blocked	Sydnee Nelson	blk Beatriz Piaia, Natalie Vance	+0.1
37	15-22	SIU	BELMNT×4	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.1
38	15-23	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Blocked	Ella Swansiger	blk Erin McMullen	+0.1
39	15-24	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Blocked	McKenzie Moeller	blk Jordan Czajkowski	·
40	15-25	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Ace	Belmont	aced Julia Laidig	·
Set 2
1	1-0	BELMNT	SIU	Blocked	Brenna Kauffeld	blk Ida Almkvist, Beatriz Piaia	+0.6
2	1-1	SIU	BELMNT×3	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.6
3	1-2	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.7
4	1-3	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Blocked	Ella Swansiger	blk Emily Warmenhoven, Erin McMullen	+0.6
5	2-3	BELMNT	SIU×3	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Ella McFarland	+0.5
6	3-3	SIU	SIU×3	Kill	Ida Almkvist	set Jillian Shaneyfelt	+0.8
7	4-3	SIU	SIU×3	Attack err	Erin McMullen		+0.9
8	4-4	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.6
9	5-4	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Ida Almkvist	set Jillian Shaneyfelt	+0.7
10	5-5	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Lucy Kay	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.6
11	5-6	BELMNT	BELMNT	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller		+0.8
12	6-6	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Lillian Dempkey	+0.7
13	7-6	SIU	SIU	Attack err	Emily Warmenhoven		+1.0
14	7-7	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Alivia Keegan	set Sydnee Nelson	+0.7
15	8-7	BELMNT	SIU×3	Serve err	Belmont		+0.8
16	9-7	SIU	SIU×3	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+1.2
17	10-7	SIU	SIU×3	Blocked	Sydnee Nelson	blk Beatriz Piaia, Ella Swansiger	+1.3
18	10-8	SIU	BELMNT×4	Attack err	Ella Swansiger		+0.8
19	10-9	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Kill	Sydnee Nelson	set Alivia Keegan	+1.1
20	10-10	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Ace	Belmont	aced McKenzie Moeller	+1.1
21	10-11	BELMNT	BELMNT×4	Kill	Sydnee Nelson	set Alivia Keegan	+1.0
22	11-11	BELMNT	SIU	Attack err	Alivia Keegan		+0.8
23	11-12	SIU	BELMNT×5	Serve err	Southern Ill.		+0.8
24	11-13	BELMNT	BELMNT×5	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.9
25	11-14	BELMNT	BELMNT×5	Attack err	Ida Almkvist		+0.8
26	11-15	BELMNT	BELMNT×5	Attack err	Ella Swansiger		+0.6
27	11-16	BELMNT	BELMNT×5	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.4
28	12-16	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Ida Almkvist	set Ella McFarland	+0.3
29	13-16	SIU	SIU	Ace	Southern Ill.	aced Lauren Evans	+0.5
30	13-17	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.5
31	13-18	BELMNT	BELMNT	Kill	Erin McMullen		+0.4
32	14-18	BELMNT	SIU	Serve err	Belmont		+0.3
33	15-18	SIU	SIU	Blocked	Emily Warmenhoven	blk Alexandria Arrington, Natalie Vance	+0.5
34	15-19	SIU	BELMNT×3	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.5
35	15-20	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Attack err	Ida Almkvist		+0.4
36	15-21	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Attack err	Natalie Vance		+0.2
37	16-21	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Jillian Shaneyfelt	+0.1
38	16-22	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.2
39	17-22	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Alexandria Arrington	set Jillian Shaneyfelt	+0.1
40	18-22	SIU	SIU	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Jillian Shaneyfelt	+0.2
41	18-23	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Alivia Keegan	set Mya Bolton	+0.2
42	19-23	BELMNT	SIU	Blocked	Sydnee Nelson	blk Beatriz Piaia, Natalie Vance	+0.1
43	20-23	SIU	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+0.3
44	20-24	SIU	BELMNT	Bad set	Ella McFarland		+0.4
45	20-25	BELMNT	BELMNT	Kill	Alivia Keegan	set Brenna Kauffeld	+0.2
Set 3
1	1-0	SIU	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+0.4
2	1-1	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.3
3	2-1	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+0.3
4	2-2	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.3
5	3-2	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Jillian Shaneyfelt	+0.3
6	3-3	SIU	BELMNT	Blocked	Beatriz Piaia	blk Brenna Kauffeld	+0.3
7	3-4	BELMNT	BELMNT	Ace	Belmont	aced McKenzie Moeller	+0.4
8	4-4	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Jillian Shaneyfelt	+0.3
9	5-4	SIU	SIU	Kill	Ella McFarland		+0.5
10	5-5	SIU	BELMNT	Serve err	Southern Ill.		+0.3
11	5-6	BELMNT	BELMNT	Blocked	Ida Almkvist	blk Lucy Kay, Alivia Keegan	+0.4
12	6-6	BELMNT	SIU×5	Serve err	Belmont		+0.3
13	7-6	SIU	SIU×5	Blocked	Lucy Kay	blk McKenzie Moeller, Beatriz Piaia	+0.5
14	8-6	SIU	SIU×5	Attack err	Sydnee Nelson		+0.5
15	9-6	SIU	SIU×5	Kill	Beatriz Piaia	set Ella McFarland	+0.6
16	10-6	SIU	SIU×5	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+0.6
17	10-7	SIU	BELMNT	Serve err	Southern Ill.		+0.4
18	11-7	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Beatriz Piaia	set Ella McFarland	+0.5
19	11-8	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Sydnee Nelson	set Alivia Keegan	+0.4
20	11-9	BELMNT	BELMNT	Blocked	McKenzie Moeller	blk Brenna Kauffeld, Erin McMullen	+0.6
21	12-9	BELMNT	SIU×3	Blocked	Sydnee Nelson	blk Alexandria Arrington, Ella McFarland	+0.5
22	13-9	SIU	SIU×3	Attack err	Sydnee Nelson		+0.7
23	14-9	SIU	SIU×3	Attack err	Erin McMullen		+0.6
24	14-10	SIU	BELMNT×9	Serve err	Southern Ill.		+0.4
25	14-11	BELMNT	BELMNT×9	Ace	Belmont	aced McKenzie Moeller	+0.6
26	14-12	BELMNT	BELMNT×9	Attack err	Alexandria Arrington		+0.6
27	14-13	BELMNT	BELMNT×9	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Mya Bolton	+0.6
28	14-14	BELMNT	BELMNT×9	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller		+0.6
29	14-15	BELMNT	BELMNT×9	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.6
30	14-16	BELMNT	BELMNT×9	Blocked	Natalie Vance	blk Emily Warmenhoven, Erin McMullen	+0.5
31	14-17	BELMNT	BELMNT×9	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.4
32	14-18	BELMNT	BELMNT×9	Kill	Erin McMullen	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.3
33	15-18	BELMNT	SIU	Serve err	Belmont		+0.2
34	15-19	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Brenna Kauffeld	set Jordan Czajkowski	+0.2
35	16-19	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Ida Almkvist	set Ella McFarland	+0.2
36	16-20	SIU	BELMNT	Attack err	Natalie Vance		+0.2
37	17-20	BELMNT	SIU	Attack err	Emily Warmenhoven		+0.2
38	18-20	SIU	SIU	Ace	Southern Ill.		+0.4
39	18-21	SIU	BELMNT×3	Attack err	Beatriz Piaia		+0.4
40	18-22	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Attack err	Beatriz Piaia		+0.3
41	18-23	BELMNT	BELMNT×3	Blocked	Ida Almkvist	blk Lucy Kay, Alivia Keegan	+0.2
42	19-23	BELMNT	SIU	Kill	Ella McFarland	set Julia Laidig	+0.1
43	19-24	SIU	BELMNT	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller		+0.1
44	20-24	BELMNT	SIU	Attack err	Alivia Keegan		·
45	20-25	SIU	BELMNT	Kill	Sydnee Nelson	set Alivia Keegan	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Southern Ill. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Belmont def. Southern Ill. 3–0

.414 and 14 kills for Erin Mcmullen as Belmont rolled past Southern Ill.