FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayMETRO

0:3

HomeSEC

Tennessee def. Fairfield 3–0

(27-25, 25-23, 25-12)

Set	1*	2	3	Sets
FAIR	25	23	12	0
TENN	27	25	25	3

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TENN above 50 · FAIR below

Biggest swing: 1.1% to Fairfield — set 1, FAIR 24-24 TENN. Fairfield ace on Team. TENN win probability 99% → 98%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

FAIR 1.1%98.9% TENN

Fairfield wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.3%

3-2

0.7%

Tennessee wins

3-0

73.5%

3-1

21.5%

3-2

3.9%

FAIR break %: 34.0% vs this opp
TENN break %: 51.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
FAIR serverAce+1.1%
Fairfield ace on Team
Set 1 · FAIR 24-24 TENN · FAIR 1% → 2%
02
Zofia SykutBad set+0.9%
Bad set by Zofia Sykut
Set 1 · FAIR 24-25 TENN · TENN 98% → 99%
03
Mamie KruballyKill+0.9%
Kill by Mamie Krubally (set by Zofia Sykut)
Set 1 · FAIR 25-25 TENN · FAIR 1% → 2%
04
Anni TangKill+0.9%
Kill by Anni Tang (set by Zofia Sykut)
Set 1 · FAIR 25-26 TENN · TENN 98% → 99%
05
Mamie KruballyAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Mamie Krubally
Set 1 · FAIR 25-27 TENN · TENN 99% → 99%
06
Kennedi RogersAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Kennedi Rogers
Set 2 · FAIR 22-22 TENN · FAIR 1% → 1%
07
Mamie KruballyAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Mamie Krubally
Set 2 · FAIR 22-24 TENN · TENN 99% → 100%
08
Camille PerryKill+0.4%
Kill by Camille Perry (set by Caroline Kerr)
Set 2 · FAIR 22-23 TENN · TENN 99% → 99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Fairfieldaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Mamie KruballyOH	3	10	6	26	.154	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	1	11
7Aislin OldachOH	3	7	1	26	.231	0	1	0	7	1	0	0	0	8
3Sophia NagyMB	3	5	0	9	.556	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
22Harlan WycheMB	3	2	2	8	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	3
8Katelyn CookOH	3	1	0	2	.500	2	1	0	4	3	0	0	0	2
11Zofia SykutS	3	0	0	0	–	14	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	0
6Emma BortolottiOH	3	4	2	10	.200	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	5
21Mia Jean ClaudeOH	3	3	1	16	.125	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
9Nicole MacalintalL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	1	1	10	1	0	0	0	1
10Noella MigliuriS	3	0	0	1	.000	8	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
12Julie DufourtL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
18Natalie CarlinL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Courtney VinesMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	12	99	.202	28	3	5	41	7	1	4	3	60

Tennesseehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Jalyn StoutS	3	9	1	21	.381	2	0	2	7	0	0	0	0	9
22Jolene OddoMB	3	8	1	13	.538	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	9
15Maggie DosticOH	3	2	3	7	-.143	1	3	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
11Caroline KerrS	3	1	1	4	.000	41	1	1	8	0	0	0	0	2
4Nia HallOH	2	3	2	14	.071	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
17Anni TangMB	1	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3
0Kennedi RogersOH	3	21	5	41	.390	0	0	3	10	0	1	2	2	23
14Sydney JaynesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	8	0	0	0	0	2
13Raegan BurnsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	10	0	0	0	0	1
3Camille PerryMB	2	3	0	4	.750	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
1Emma FrietchL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Chelsea SuttonMB	1	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
8Jade WilliamsOPP	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35Mallory MathenyS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		50	15	114	.307	46	7	8	46	3	2	6	5	77

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 FAIR · TENN 8

Set 1*

25-27

Longest run 5 FAIRTENN 8

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 4 FAIRTENN 6

Set 3

12-25

Longest run 2 FAIRTENN 8

Bars above the line = Tennessee leads, below = Fairfield leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Fairfield

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	42%5/12	43%3/7
2	40%4/10	29%2/7
3	60%3/5	33%2/6
4	33%3/9	40%2/5
5	100%3/3	40%2/5
6	30%3/10	50%3/6
All	43%21/49	39%14/36

Tennessee

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	83%5/6	76%13/17
2	67%4/6	43%3/7
3	67%4/6	56%5/9
4	60%3/5	57%4/7
5	43%3/7	50%3/6
6	50%3/6	0%0/3
All	61%22/36	57%28/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

137 rallies

Rally log

#	FAIR-TENN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	FAIR	TENN	Bad set	Mamie Krubally		+0.1
2	0-2	TENN	TENN	Kill	Nia Hall	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
3	1-2	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Katelyn Cook	+0.1
4	2-2	FAIR	FAIR	Bad set	Caroline Kerr		+0.2
5	2-3	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Caroline Kerr	set Maggie Dostic	+0.1
6	2-4	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Harlan Wyche	blk Anni Tang	+0.1
7	3-4	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+0.1
8	3-5	FAIR	TENN×8	Kill	Nia Hall	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
9	3-6	TENN	TENN×8	Ace	TENN server	aced Katelyn Cook	+0.1
10	3-7	TENN	TENN×8	Ace	TENN server	aced Katelyn Cook	+0.1
11	3-8	TENN	TENN×8	Bad set	Noella Migliuri		+0.1
12	3-9	TENN	TENN×8	Attack err	Emma Bortolotti		+0.0
13	3-10	TENN	TENN×8	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
14	3-11	TENN	TENN×8	Kill	Anni Tang	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
15	3-12	TENN	TENN×8	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Raegan Burns	+0.0
16	4-12	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Katelyn Cook		+0.0
17	5-12	FAIR	FAIR	Ace	FAIR server	aced Team	+0.0
18	5-13	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
19	5-14	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Harlan Wyche	blk Jolene Oddo, Kennedi Rogers	+0.0
20	6-14	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Harlan Wyche	set Noella Migliuri	+0.0
21	6-15	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
22	7-15	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+0.0
23	7-16	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Jalyn Stout	+0.0
24	8-16	TENN	FAIR	Serve err	TENN server		+0.0
25	9-16	FAIR	FAIR	Attack err	Jolene Oddo		+0.0
26	9-17	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Nia Hall	set Jalyn Stout	+0.0
27	10-17	TENN	FAIR×5	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
28	11-17	FAIR	FAIR×5	Ace	FAIR server	aced Team	+0.0
29	12-17	FAIR	FAIR×5	Attack err	Anni Tang		+0.0
30	13-17	FAIR	FAIR×5	Attack err	Nia Hall		+0.1
31	14-17	FAIR	FAIR×5	Attack err	Mamie Krubally		+0.1
32	14-18	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
33	14-19	TENN	TENN	Ace	TENN server	aced Aislin Oldach	+0.1
34	15-19	TENN	FAIR	Serve err	TENN server		+0.1
35	15-20	FAIR	TENN	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.1
36	16-20	TENN	FAIR	Serve err	TENN server		+0.0
37	17-20	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+0.1
38	17-21	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
39	18-21	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+0.1
40	18-22	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
41	18-23	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Mia Jean Claude		+0.1
42	19-23	TENN	FAIR×3	Serve err	TENN server		+0.0
43	20-23	FAIR	FAIR×3	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.1
44	21-23	FAIR	FAIR×3	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Nicole Macalintal	+0.2
45	21-24	FAIR	TENN	Attack err	Mamie Krubally		+0.2
46	22-24	TENN	FAIR×3	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Zofia Sykut	+0.1
47	23-24	FAIR	FAIR×3	Kill	Sophia Nagy		+0.4
48	24-24	FAIR	FAIR×3	Ace	FAIR server	aced Team	+1.1
49	24-25	FAIR	TENN	Bad set	Zofia Sykut		+0.9
50	25-25	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.9
51	25-26	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Anni Tang	set Zofia Sykut	+0.9
52	25-27	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Mamie Krubally		+0.8
Set 2
1	1-0	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.1
2	2-0	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+0.1
3	2-1	FAIR	TENN×3	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.1
4	2-2	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
5	2-3	TENN	TENN×3	Ace	TENN server	aced Team	+0.1
6	3-3	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+0.1
7	4-3	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Nicole Macalintal	+0.1
8	4-4	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
9	5-4	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Katelyn Cook	+0.1
10	6-4	FAIR	FAIR	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+0.2
11	6-5	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
12	6-6	TENN	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
13	7-6	TENN	FAIR	Serve err	TENN server		+0.1
14	7-7	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
15	8-7	TENN	FAIR×4	Serve err	TENN server		+0.1
16	9-7	FAIR	FAIR×4	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+0.2
17	10-7	FAIR	FAIR×4	Attack err	Caroline Kerr		+0.3
18	11-7	FAIR	FAIR×4	Attack err	Nia Hall	blk Mamie Krubally	+0.3
19	11-8	FAIR	TENN	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.2
20	12-8	TENN	FAIR	Attack err	Jalyn Stout		+0.3
21	13-8	FAIR	FAIR	Attack err	Maggie Dostic		+0.4
22	13-9	FAIR	TENN×6	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
23	13-10	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.3
24	13-11	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Chelsea Sutton		+0.3
25	13-12	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.3
26	13-13	TENN	TENN×6	Ace	TENN server	aced Katelyn Cook	+0.2
27	13-14	TENN	TENN×6	Attack err	Mamie Krubally	blk Kennedi Rogers, Chelsea Sutton	+0.2
28	14-14	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Maggie Dostic	+0.2
29	14-15	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
30	15-15	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.2
31	15-16	FAIR	TENN	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.2
32	15-17	TENN	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
33	16-17	TENN	FAIR	Serve err	TENN server		+0.1
34	16-18	FAIR	TENN×3	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
35	16-19	TENN	TENN×3	Attack err	Emma Bortolotti	blk Maggie Dostic, Jolene Oddo	+0.1
36	16-20	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
37	17-20	TENN	FAIR	Serve err	TENN server		+0.1
38	18-20	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Sophia Nagy		+0.1
39	18-21	FAIR	TENN	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.1
40	19-21	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Noella Migliuri	+0.1
41	19-22	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
42	20-22	TENN	FAIR×3	Attack err	Chelsea Sutton		+0.1
43	21-22	FAIR	FAIR×3	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Nicole Macalintal	+0.3
44	22-22	FAIR	FAIR×3	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+0.5
45	22-23	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Camille Perry	set Caroline Kerr	+0.4
46	22-24	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Mamie Krubally		+0.4
47	23-24	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+0.2
48	23-25	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.3
Set 3
1	0-1	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
2	1-1	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.0
3	1-2	FAIR	TENN×4	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
4	1-3	TENN	TENN×4	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
5	1-4	TENN	TENN×4	Kill	Camille Perry	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
6	1-5	TENN	TENN×4	Attack err	Mamie Krubally		+0.0
7	2-5	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Harlan Wyche	set Zofia Sykut	+0.0
8	2-6	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Camille Perry	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
9	2-7	TENN	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
10	3-7	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+0.0
11	4-7	FAIR	FAIR	Attack err	Maggie Dostic	blk Harlan Wyche, Emma Bortolotti	+0.0
12	4-8	FAIR	TENN×4	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
13	4-9	TENN	TENN×4	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
14	4-10	TENN	TENN×4	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
15	4-11	TENN	TENN×4	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
16	5-11	TENN	FAIR	Attack err	Maggie Dostic		+0.0
17	6-11	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Mia Jean Claude	set Noella Migliuri	+0.0
18	6-12	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
19	7-12	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Mia Jean Claude	set Noella Migliuri	+0.0
20	7-13	FAIR	TENN×8	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
21	7-14	TENN	TENN×8	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
22	7-15	TENN	TENN×8	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
23	7-16	TENN	TENN×8	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Mamie Krubally	+0.0
24	7-17	TENN	TENN×8	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Zofia Sykut	+0.0
25	7-18	TENN	TENN×8	Ace	TENN server	aced Team	+0.0
26	7-19	TENN	TENN×8	Ace	TENN server	aced Nicole Macalintal	+0.0
27	7-20	TENN	TENN×8	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
28	8-20	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Mia Jean Claude	set Zofia Sykut	+0.0
29	8-21	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
30	8-22	TENN	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
31	9-22	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Julie Dufourt	+0.0
32	10-22	FAIR	FAIR	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+0.0
33	10-23	FAIR	TENN	Attack err	Mamie Krubally	blk Kennedi Rogers	+0.0
34	10-24	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Aislin Oldach		+0.0
35	11-24	TENN	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.0
36	12-24	FAIR	FAIR	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers	blk Harlan Wyche, Emma Bortolotti	+0.0
37	12-25	FAIR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Mallory Matheny	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Fairfield first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.