FinalWed, Sep 9, 2026

AwaySEC

0:3

HomeACC

Pittsburgh def. Tennessee 3–0

(25-17, 28-26, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3*	Sets
TENN	17	26	20	0
PITT	25	28	25	3

* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

PITT above 50 · TENN below

Biggest swing: 4.8% to Tennessee — set 2, TENN 26-25 PITT. Kill by Kennedi Rogers (set by Caroline Kerr). PITT win probability 92% → 87%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

TENN 12.8%87.2% PITT

Tennessee wins

3-0

1.8%

3-1

4.0%

3-2

6.9%

Pittsburgh wins

3-0

40.1%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

15.6%

TENN break %: 35.7% vs this opp
PITT break %: 44.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Kennedi RogersKill+4.8%
Kill by Kennedi Rogers (set by Caroline Kerr)
Set 2 · TENN 26-25 PITT · TENN 8% → 13%
02
Ayanna WatsonKill+4.2%
Kill by Ayanna Watson (set by Izzy Starck)
Set 2 · TENN 23-24 PITT · PITT 90% → 95%
03
Ayanna WatsonKill+4.2%
Kill by Ayanna Watson (set by Abbey Emch)
Set 2 · TENN 26-27 PITT · PITT 90% → 95%
04
Kennedi RogersAttack error+3.7%
Attack error by Kennedi Rogers
Set 2 · TENN 23-23 PITT · PITT 87% → 90%
05
Olivia BabcockKill+3.3%
Kill by Olivia Babcock (set by Izzy Starck)
Set 2 · TENN 26-28 PITT · PITT 95% → 98%
06
Ayanna WatsonKill+3.3%
Kill by Ayanna Watson (set by Izzy Starck)
Set 2 · TENN 26-26 PITT · PITT 87% → 90%
07
Caroline KerrKill+2.7%
Kill by Caroline Kerr (set by Izzy Starck)
Set 2 · TENN 24-24 PITT · TENN 5% → 8%
08
Maaike HeiligKill+2.7%
Kill by Maaike Heilig (set by Izzy Starck)
Set 2 · TENN 24-25 PITT · PITT 92% → 95%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Tennesseeaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
0Kennedi RogersOH	3	10	5	29	.172	0	2	5	7	1	3	1.5	13.5
7Jalyn StoutS	3	10	3	27	.259	1	1	1	5	1	3	1.5	12.5
22Jolene OddoMB	3	6	1	11	.455	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	8
11Caroline KerrS	3	4	0	6	.667	30	2	1	7	0	1	0.5	6.5
15Maggie DosticOH	3	2	3	13	-.077	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	3
16Chelsea SuttonMB	2	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
13Raegan BurnsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	12	0	0	0	0
14Sydney JaynesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
17Anni TangMB	2	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
4Nia HallOH	1	3	0	6	.500	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4
3Camille PerryMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
Team totals		38	13	101	.248	32	7	8	35	5	14	7	63

Pittsburghhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
5Olivia BabcockOH	3	17	4	34	.382	0	0	1	8	0	2	1	18
12Ayanna WatsonOH	3	15	4	32	.344	0	0	1	2	2	1	0.5	15.5
20Abbey EmchMB	3	10	1	14	.643	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	11
2Maaike HeiligMB	3	4	0	6	.667	0	1	0	1	0	3	1.5	6.5
21Izzy StarckS	3	1	1	3	.000	43	3	1	8	0	2	1	5
8Blaire BaylessOH	3	4	4	15	.000	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	4
25Haiti Tautua'aS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	1
7Izzy MastenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0
13Mallorie MeyerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	0
9Trinity ThompsonS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
Team totals		51	14	105	.352	46	5	4	43	7	10	5	78

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 TENN · PITT 7

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 TENNPITT 7

Set 2

26-28

Longest run 3 TENNPITT 4

Set 3*

20-25

Longest run 5 TENNPITT 6

Bars above the line = Pittsburgh leads, below = Tennessee leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Tennessee

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	31%5/16	40%4/10
2	100%5/5	29%2/7
3	100%5/5	29%2/7
4	100%5/5	17%1/6
5	33%5/15	29%2/7
6	83%5/6	29%2/7
All	58%30/52	30%13/44

Pittsburgh

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%6/9	62%8/13
2	63%5/8	38%3/8
3	83%5/6	0%0/5
4	63%5/8	0%0/5
5	83%5/6	44%4/9
6	71%5/7	58%7/12
All	70%31/44	42%22/52

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

141 rallies

Rally log

#	TENN-PITT	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	PITT	PITT×7	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+1.3
2	0-2	PITT	PITT×7	Kill	Abbey Emch	set Izzy Starck	+1.1
3	0-3	PITT	PITT×7	Attack err	Jalyn Stout	blk Ayanna Watson, Abbey Emch	+1.0
4	0-4	PITT	PITT×7	Ace	PITT server	aced Kennedi Rogers	+0.8
5	0-5	PITT	PITT×7	Attack err	Jalyn Stout		+0.7
6	0-6	PITT	PITT×7	Kill	Ayanna Watson	set Izzy Starck	+0.5
7	0-7	PITT	PITT×7	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Izzy Starck	+0.4
8	1-7	PITT	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
9	1-8	TENN	PITT	Attack err	Jolene Oddo		+0.2
10	2-8	PITT	TENN	Attack err	Blaire Bayless		+0.2
11	3-8	TENN	TENN	Ace	TENN server	aced Izzy Masten	+0.4
12	3-9	TENN	PITT	Serve err	TENN server		+0.3
13	4-9	PITT	TENN	Serve err	PITT server		+0.3
14	4-10	TENN	PITT	Kill	Maaike Heilig	set Izzy Starck	+0.3
15	5-10	PITT	TENN×3	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.3
16	6-10	TENN	TENN×3	Ace	TENN server	aced Blaire Bayless	+0.6
17	7-10	TENN	TENN×3	Attack err	Olivia Babcock		+0.8
18	7-11	TENN	PITT×4	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Izzy Starck	+0.6
19	7-12	PITT	PITT×4	Kill	Ayanna Watson	set Izzy Starck	+0.7
20	7-13	PITT	PITT×4	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Izzy Starck	+0.5
21	7-14	PITT	PITT×4	Kill	Ayanna Watson	set Izzy Starck	+0.4
22	8-14	PITT	TENN	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
23	9-14	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Izzy Starck		+0.4
24	9-15	TENN	PITT	Kill	Ayanna Watson	set Izzy Starck	+0.3
25	10-15	PITT	TENN	Attack err	Ayanna Watson	blk Jalyn Stout, Chelsea Sutton	+0.3
26	11-15	TENN	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.6
27	11-16	TENN	PITT	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Izzy Starck	+0.5
28	12-16	PITT	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.4
29	12-17	TENN	PITT	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Izzy Starck	+0.5
30	13-17	PITT	TENN	Serve err	PITT server		+0.4
31	13-18	TENN	PITT	Serve err	TENN server		+0.5
32	14-18	PITT	TENN	Kill	Caroline Kerr		+0.4
33	14-19	TENN	PITT	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Izzy Starck	+0.5
34	15-19	PITT	TENN	Serve err	PITT server		+0.3
35	15-20	TENN	PITT	Kill	Blaire Bayless	set Izzy Starck	+0.5
36	15-21	PITT	PITT	Attack err	Maggie Dostic	blk Maaike Heilig, Izzy Starck	+0.4
37	16-21	PITT	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
38	16-22	TENN	PITT	Kill	Izzy Starck		+0.2
39	16-23	PITT	PITT	Kill	Ayanna Watson	set Izzy Starck	+0.1
40	17-23	PITT	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
41	17-24	TENN	PITT	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+0.0
42	17-25	PITT	PITT	Ace	PITT server	aced Maggie Dostic	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	TENN	PITT	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Izzy Starck	+0.6
2	1-1	PITT	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.6
3	1-2	TENN	PITT	Kill	Abbey Emch	set Izzy Starck	+0.6
4	2-2	PITT	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.7
5	3-2	TENN	TENN	Ace	TENN server	aced Team	+1.1
6	3-3	TENN	PITT	Kill	Blaire Bayless	set Izzy Starck	+0.7
7	4-3	PITT	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.8
8	5-3	TENN	TENN	Ace	TENN server	aced Izzy Masten	+1.3
9	5-4	TENN	PITT	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Izzy Starck	+0.8
10	6-4	PITT	TENN	Attack err	Blaire Bayless		+0.9
11	6-5	TENN	PITT×4	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+0.8
12	6-6	PITT	PITT×4	Kill	Maaike Heilig	set Izzy Starck	+1.2
13	6-7	PITT	PITT×4	Ace	PITT server	aced Team	+1.1
14	6-8	PITT	PITT×4	Attack err	Chelsea Sutton		+1.0
15	7-8	PITT	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.7
16	7-9	TENN	PITT	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Izzy Starck	+0.6
17	8-9	PITT	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.7
18	9-9	TENN	TENN	Ace	TENN server	aced Ayanna Watson	+1.2
19	9-10	TENN	PITT	Kill	Abbey Emch	set Izzy Starck	+0.8
20	9-11	PITT	PITT	Kill	Abbey Emch		+1.1
21	10-11	PITT	TENN×3	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.7
22	11-11	TENN	TENN×3	Attack err	Olivia Babcock	blk Kennedi Rogers, Jolene Oddo	+1.3
23	12-11	TENN	TENN×3	Attack err	Ayanna Watson		+1.5
24	12-12	TENN	PITT	Kill	Abbey Emch	set Izzy Starck	+0.9
25	13-12	PITT	TENN	Attack err	Olivia Babcock	blk Kennedi Rogers, Jolene Oddo	+1.1
26	13-13	TENN	PITT	Kill	Abbey Emch	set Izzy Starck	+1.0
27	14-13	PITT	TENN	Attack err	Blaire Bayless		+1.1
28	14-14	TENN	PITT	Serve err	TENN server		+1.0
29	15-14	PITT	TENN	Attack err	Blaire Bayless	blk Jolene Oddo, Caroline Kerr	+1.2
30	15-15	TENN	PITT	Kill	Maaike Heilig	set Izzy Starck	+1.1
31	15-16	PITT	PITT	Kill	Ayanna Watson	set Izzy Starck	+1.6
32	16-16	PITT	TENN	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+1.1
33	17-16	TENN	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+2.0
34	17-17	TENN	PITT	Kill	Ayanna Watson	set Izzy Starck	+1.2
35	18-17	PITT	TENN	Attack err	Ayanna Watson		+1.5
36	19-17	TENN	TENN	Kill	Anni Tang		+2.4
37	19-18	TENN	PITT	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Izzy Starck	+1.3
38	20-18	PITT	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+1.8
39	20-19	TENN	PITT	Kill	Abbey Emch	set Izzy Starck	+1.4
40	21-19	PITT	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+1.9
41	21-20	TENN	PITT	Serve err	TENN server		+1.4
42	22-20	PITT	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+2.1
43	22-21	TENN	PITT	Serve err	TENN server		+1.5
44	23-21	PITT	TENN	Kill	Caroline Kerr		+2.5
45	23-22	TENN	PITT×3	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Izzy Starck	+1.6
46	23-23	PITT	PITT×3	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+3.7
47	23-24	PITT	PITT×3	Kill	Ayanna Watson	set Izzy Starck	+4.2
48	24-24	PITT	TENN	Kill	Caroline Kerr	set Izzy Starck	+2.7
49	24-25	TENN	PITT	Kill	Maaike Heilig	set Izzy Starck	+2.7
50	25-25	PITT	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Raegan Burns	+2.7
51	26-25	TENN	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+4.8
52	26-26	TENN	PITT×3	Kill	Ayanna Watson	set Izzy Starck	+3.3
53	26-27	PITT	PITT×3	Kill	Ayanna Watson	set Abbey Emch	+4.2
54	26-28	PITT	PITT×3	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Izzy Starck	+3.3
Set 3
1	0-1	PITT	PITT×3	Kill	Ayanna Watson	set Izzy Starck	+0.4
2	0-2	PITT	PITT×3	Ace	PITT server	aced Maggie Dostic	+0.4
3	0-3	PITT	PITT×3	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Trinity Thompson	+0.3
4	1-3	PITT	TENN	Attack err	Ayanna Watson		+0.2
5	1-4	TENN	PITT	Serve err	TENN server		+0.2
6	1-5	PITT	PITT	Kill	Blaire Bayless	set Trinity Thompson	+0.3
7	2-5	PITT	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
8	2-6	TENN	PITT	Kill	Abbey Emch	set Izzy Starck	+0.2
9	2-7	PITT	PITT	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers	blk Maaike Heilig, Olivia Babcock	+0.2
10	3-7	PITT	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
11	3-8	TENN	PITT	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Izzy Starck	+0.1
12	4-8	PITT	TENN	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
13	4-9	TENN	PITT×3	Attack err	Maggie Dostic		+0.1
14	4-10	PITT	PITT×3	Attack err	Maggie Dostic	blk Izzy Starck, Maaike Heilig	+0.2
15	4-11	PITT	PITT×3	Kill	Ayanna Watson	set Izzy Starck	+0.1
16	5-11	PITT	TENN	Kill	Caroline Kerr		+0.1
17	5-12	TENN	PITT	Serve err	TENN server		+0.1
18	6-12	PITT	TENN×5	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
19	7-12	TENN	TENN×5	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
20	8-12	TENN	TENN×5	Kill	Camille Perry	set Izzy Starck	+0.2
21	9-12	TENN	TENN×5	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.3
22	10-12	TENN	TENN×5	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.4
23	10-13	TENN	PITT	Bad set	Caroline Kerr		+0.3
24	11-13	PITT	TENN	Serve err	PITT server		+0.3
25	12-13	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Olivia Babcock	blk Jolene Oddo, Kennedi Rogers	+0.5
26	12-14	TENN	PITT	Attack err	Jalyn Stout	blk Olivia Babcock, Abbey Emch	+0.4
27	12-15	PITT	PITT	Kill	Abbey Emch		+0.5
28	13-15	PITT	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.3
29	13-16	TENN	PITT	Kill	Blaire Bayless	set Izzy Starck	+0.3
30	14-16	PITT	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.3
31	14-17	TENN	PITT	Serve err	TENN server		+0.3
32	15-17	PITT	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.3
33	16-17	TENN	TENN	Kill	Nia Hall	set Jalyn Stout	+0.6
34	16-18	TENN	PITT	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Izzy Starck	+0.5
35	17-18	PITT	TENN	Kill	Nia Hall	set Caroline Kerr	+0.4
36	18-18	TENN	TENN	Ace	TENN server	aced Ayanna Watson	+0.9
37	18-19	TENN	PITT×6	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Izzy Starck	+0.6
38	18-20	PITT	PITT×6	Kill	Ayanna Watson	set Izzy Starck	+0.8
39	18-21	PITT	PITT×6	Ace	PITT server	aced Jalyn Stout	+0.6
40	18-22	PITT	PITT×6	Kill	Abbey Emch	set Izzy Starck	+0.4
41	18-23	PITT	PITT×6	Kill	Ayanna Watson		+0.2
42	18-24	PITT	PITT×6	Kill	Ayanna Watson		+0.1
43	19-24	PITT	TENN	Kill	Nia Hall	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
44	20-24	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Abbey Emch	blk Camille Perry, Jalyn Stout	+0.0
45	20-25	TENN	PITT	Kill	Olivia Babcock	set Izzy Starck	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Tennessee first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.