FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwaySUN-BELT

0:3

HomeSEC

Tennessee def. Coastal Carolina 3–0

(25-19, 25-19, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CO CAR	19	19	17	0
TENN	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TENN above 50 · CO CAR below

Biggest swing: 0.3% to Coastal Carolina — set 1, CO CAR 6-3 TENN. Attack error by Jolene Oddo. TENN win probability 99% → 98%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CO CAR 0.8%99.2% TENN

Coastal Carolina wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.5%

Tennessee wins

3-0

76.2%

3-1

19.8%

3-2

3.2%

CO CAR break %: 33.4% vs this opp
TENN break %: 51.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Jolene OddoAttack error+0.3%
Attack error by Jolene Oddo
Set 1 · CO CAR 6-3 TENN · CO CAR 1% → 2%
02
Hatteras WelkerKill+0.3%
Kill by Hatteras Welker (set by Kaylee Musick)
Set 1 · CO CAR 8-5 TENN · CO CAR 1% → 2%
03
Anzley RinardKill+0.2%
Kill by Anzley Rinard (set by Natalie Hughes)
Set 1 · CO CAR 10-8 TENN · CO CAR 1% → 2%
04
Maggie DosticKill+0.2%
Kill by Maggie Dostic (set by Kennedi Rogers)
Set 1 · CO CAR 8-7 TENN · TENN 99% → 99%
05
Jolene OddoKill+0.2%
Kill by Jolene Oddo
Set 1 · CO CAR 10-10 TENN · TENN 99% → 99%
06
TENN serverService error+0.2%
Tennessee service error
Set 1 · CO CAR 7-4 TENN · CO CAR 1% → 2%
07
Kennedi RogersAttack error+0.2%
Kennedi Rogers stuffed by Isabele Filardo & Hatteras Welker
Set 1 · CO CAR 5-3 TENN · CO CAR 1% → 1%
08
Viara ParapunovaKill+0.2%
Kill by Viara Parapunova (set by Kaylee Musick)
Set 1 · CO CAR 9-7 TENN · CO CAR 1% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Coastal Carolinaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Hatteras WelkerMB	3	6	3	15	.200	0	1	1	2	0	0	4	2	9
10Anna RitaMB	3	6	3	12	.250	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	3	9
6Viara ParapunovaOH	3	7	1	26	.231	0	0	2	8	2	0	2	1	8
2Natalie HughesOPP	3	1	2	9	-.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
17Isabella LoeswickS	3	0	0	0	–	12	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	1
13Julia RiveraOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
19Anzley RinardOH	3	5	2	19	.158	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5
3Isabele FilardoOH	3	1	1	9	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
8Kaylee MusickS	3	0	0	3	.000	11	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	1
4Jonna SpohnL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	8	2	0	0	0	0
45Abby BuceyL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
5Talia JohnsonOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		26	12	95	.147	25	3	5	33	4	1	16	9	55

Tennesseehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Jalyn StoutS	3	17	5	30	.400	3	1	2	8	0	0	1	0.5	18.5
0Kennedi RogersOH	3	10	6	28	.143	1	0	2	6	1	1	3	2.5	12.5
22Jolene OddoMB	3	9	2	14	.500	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	10.5
15Maggie DosticOH	3	7	3	17	.235	0	0	1	7	0	0	2	1	8
11Caroline KerrS	3	4	0	7	.571	40	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	4
16Chelsea SuttonMB	3	2	2	8	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	3
14Sydney JaynesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	3	0	0	0	0	2
13Raegan BurnsL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	1	1	8	0	0	0	0	1
4Nia HallOH	1	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
3Camille PerryMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
17Anni TangMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
6Mackenzie PlanteOH	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35Mallory MathenyS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		51	19	111	.288	48	4	7	43	3	1	12	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 CO CAR · TENN 6

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 CO CARTENN 4

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 4 CO CARTENN 5

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 CO CARTENN 6

Bars above the line = Tennessee leads, below = Coastal Carolina leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Coastal Carolina

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	27%3/11
2	50%7/14	27%3/11
3	55%6/11	42%5/12
4	67%6/9	0%0/6
5	40%6/15	33%3/9
6	55%6/11	25%2/8
All	53%39/73	28%16/57

Tennessee

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%9/14	50%7/14
2	67%8/12	38%5/13
3	75%6/8	45%5/11
4	100%6/6	54%7/13
5	67%6/9	50%6/12
6	75%6/8	40%4/10
All	72%41/57	47%34/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	CO CAR-TENN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CO CAR	CO CAR	Attack err	Chelsea Sutton	blk Anna Rita	+0.2
2	1-1	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
3	2-1	TENN	CO CAR	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers	blk Anna Rita, Natalie Hughes	+0.1
4	3-1	CO CAR	CO CAR	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+0.2
5	3-2	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
6	3-3	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Natalie Hughes	blk Kennedi Rogers, Jolene Oddo	+0.2
7	4-3	TENN	CO CAR×3	Kill	Hatteras Welker	set Isabella Loeswick	+0.1
8	5-3	CO CAR	CO CAR×3	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers	blk Isabele Filardo, Hatteras Welker	+0.2
9	6-3	CO CAR	CO CAR×3	Attack err	Jolene Oddo		+0.3
10	6-4	CO CAR	TENN	Serve err	CO CAR server		+0.2
11	7-4	TENN	CO CAR	Serve err	TENN server		+0.2
12	7-5	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
13	8-5	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Hatteras Welker	set Kaylee Musick	+0.3
14	8-6	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Caroline Kerr	set Jalyn Stout	+0.2
15	8-7	TENN	TENN	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Kennedi Rogers	+0.2
16	9-7	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Viara Parapunova	set Kaylee Musick	+0.2
17	9-8	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
18	10-8	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Anzley Rinard	set Natalie Hughes	+0.2
19	10-9	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
20	10-10	TENN	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo		+0.2
21	11-10	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Viara Parapunova	set Jonna Spohn	+0.2
22	11-11	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
23	11-12	TENN	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
24	12-12	TENN	CO CAR	Serve err	TENN server		+0.2
25	12-13	CO CAR	TENN	Serve err	CO CAR server		+0.2
26	13-13	TENN	CO CAR	Attack err	Maggie Dostic	blk Isabele Filardo, Hatteras Welker	+0.2
27	13-14	CO CAR	TENN	Attack err	Anzley Rinard		+0.2
28	13-15	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Hatteras Welker	blk Maggie Dostic, Chelsea Sutton	+0.2
29	14-15	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Anzley Rinard	set Kaylee Musick	+0.2
30	14-16	CO CAR	TENN×4	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
31	14-17	TENN	TENN×4	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
32	14-18	TENN	TENN×4	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Raegan Burns	+0.1
33	14-19	TENN	TENN×4	Bad set	Anzley Rinard		+0.1
34	15-19	TENN	CO CAR×3	Kill	Viara Parapunova	set Kaylee Musick	+0.0
35	16-19	CO CAR	CO CAR×3	Ace	CO CAR server	aced Kennedi Rogers	+0.1
36	17-19	CO CAR	CO CAR×3	Attack err	Maggie Dostic		+0.2
37	17-20	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Caroline Kerr	set Chelsea Sutton	+0.1
38	18-20	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Natalie Hughes	set Isabella Loeswick	+0.1
39	18-21	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
40	19-21	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Anna Rita	set Isabella Loeswick	+0.1
41	19-22	CO CAR	TENN×4	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
42	19-23	TENN	TENN×4	Bad set	Anzley Rinard		+0.1
43	19-24	TENN	TENN×4	Kill	Nia Hall	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
44	19-25	TENN	TENN×4	Ace	TENN server	aced Jonna Spohn	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Anna Rita	blk Kennedi Rogers, Chelsea Sutton	+0.1
2	1-1	TENN	CO CAR	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+0.1
3	2-1	CO CAR	CO CAR	Attack err	Jalyn Stout		+0.1
4	2-2	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
5	3-2	TENN	CO CAR×4	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers	blk Hatteras Welker, Natalie Hughes	+0.1
6	4-2	CO CAR	CO CAR×4	Ace	CO CAR server	aced Team	+0.1
7	5-2	CO CAR	CO CAR×4	Attack err	Jalyn Stout	blk Hatteras Welker, Viara Parapunova	+0.2
8	6-2	CO CAR	CO CAR×4	Attack err	Jolene Oddo		+0.2
9	6-3	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
10	7-3	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Viara Parapunova	set Kaylee Musick	+0.2
11	7-4	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
12	7-5	TENN	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
13	8-5	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Anzley Rinard	set Kaylee Musick	+0.1
14	8-6	CO CAR	TENN	Serve err	CO CAR server		+0.1
15	8-7	TENN	TENN	Bad set	Kaylee Musick		+0.1
16	9-7	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Anna Rita	set Kaylee Musick	+0.1
17	9-8	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Caroline Kerr	set Jalyn Stout	+0.1
18	10-8	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Anzley Rinard	set Isabella Loeswick	+0.1
19	10-9	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
20	10-10	TENN	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
21	11-10	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Anna Rita	set Isabella Loeswick	+0.1
22	12-10	CO CAR	CO CAR	Attack err	Jalyn Stout		+0.2
23	12-11	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Raegan Burns	+0.1
24	13-11	TENN	CO CAR	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+0.2
25	13-12	CO CAR	TENN	Attack err	Viara Parapunova	blk Jalyn Stout, Jolene Oddo	+0.1
26	14-12	TENN	CO CAR	Serve err	TENN server		+0.2
27	14-13	CO CAR	TENN	Serve err	CO CAR server		+0.1
28	14-14	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Hatteras Welker		+0.2
29	15-14	TENN	CO CAR	Serve err	TENN server		+0.2
30	15-15	CO CAR	TENN×5	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
31	15-16	TENN	TENN×5	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
32	15-17	TENN	TENN×5	Ace	TENN server	aced Viara Parapunova	+0.1
33	15-18	TENN	TENN×5	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
34	15-19	TENN	TENN×5	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Anna Rita	+0.1
35	16-19	TENN	CO CAR	Attack err	Maggie Dostic	blk Isabele Filardo, Anna Rita	+0.0
36	16-20	CO CAR	TENN	Attack err	Anzley Rinard		+0.0
37	17-20	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Anzley Rinard	set Isabella Loeswick	+0.0
38	17-21	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
39	18-21	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Viara Parapunova	set Isabella Loeswick	+0.0
40	18-22	CO CAR	TENN×3	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
41	18-23	TENN	TENN×3	Ace	TENN server	aced Viara Parapunova	+0.0
42	18-24	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
43	19-24	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Viara Parapunova	set Isabella Loeswick	+0.0
44	19-25	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
2	1-1	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Viara Parapunova	set Isabella Loeswick	+0.0
3	1-2	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
4	2-2	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Hatteras Welker	set Isabella Loeswick	+0.0
5	2-3	CO CAR	TENN×6	Kill	Caroline Kerr	set Jalyn Stout	+0.0
6	2-4	TENN	TENN×6	Attack err	Hatteras Welker	blk Maggie Dostic, Jolene Oddo	+0.0
7	2-5	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
8	2-6	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
9	2-7	TENN	TENN×6	Attack err	Isabele Filardo		+0.0
10	2-8	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
11	3-8	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Hatteras Welker	set Kaylee Musick	+0.0
12	3-9	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
13	4-9	TENN	CO CAR×3	Kill	Hatteras Welker	set Kaylee Musick	+0.0
14	5-9	CO CAR	CO CAR×3	Attack err	Chelsea Sutton		+0.0
15	6-9	CO CAR	CO CAR×3	Kill	Anna Rita	set Kaylee Musick	+0.0
16	6-10	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
17	7-10	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Isabele Filardo	set Kaylee Musick	+0.0
18	7-11	CO CAR	TENN×6	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
19	7-12	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Raegan Burns	+0.0
20	7-13	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Chelsea Sutton		+0.0
21	7-14	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
22	7-15	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
23	7-16	TENN	TENN×6	Attack err	Anna Rita	blk Kennedi Rogers	+0.0
24	8-16	TENN	CO CAR	Serve err	TENN server		+0.0
25	8-17	CO CAR	TENN×3	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
26	8-18	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
27	8-19	TENN	TENN×3	Ace	TENN server	aced Jonna Spohn	+0.0
28	9-19	TENN	CO CAR	Serve err	TENN server		+0.0
29	9-20	CO CAR	TENN	Attack err	Natalie Hughes	blk Anni Tang, Kennedi Rogers	+0.0
30	10-20	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Hatteras Welker	set Isabella Loeswick	+0.0
31	10-21	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
32	11-21	TENN	CO CAR	Attack err	Jalyn Stout		+0.0
33	11-22	CO CAR	TENN	Serve err	CO CAR server		+0.0
34	12-22	TENN	CO CAR	Serve err	TENN server		+0.0
35	13-22	CO CAR	CO CAR	Ace	CO CAR server	aced Team	+0.0
36	13-23	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
37	14-23	TENN	CO CAR	Kill	Anna Rita	set Kaylee Musick	+0.0
38	14-24	CO CAR	TENN	Kill	Camille Perry	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
39	15-24	TENN	CO CAR×3	Kill	Anna Rita	set Isabella Loeswick	+0.0
40	16-24	CO CAR	CO CAR×3	Attack err	Jalyn Stout	blk Anna Rita, Viara Parapunova	+0.0
41	17-24	CO CAR	CO CAR×3	Attack err	Mackenzie Plante	blk Anna Rita, Natalie Hughes	+0.0
42	17-25	CO CAR	TENN	Attack err	Anna Rita		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Coastal Carolina first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.