Final · 4 setsSun, Sep 20, 2026

Tennessee def. Penn St. 3–1

Tennessee won at Penn St. 3-1 (25-19, 25-23, 20-25, 25-20) on Sun, Sep 20, 2026. Tennessee's Kennedi Rogers led with 21 kills, and Raegan Burns added 14 digs.

Data through · final Sep 20

Set1234Sets
TENN252520253
PENNST192325201

Win probability

Penn St. above 50 · Tennessee below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.0% TENNrally 182 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.0% to Tennessee — set 2, TENN 24-23 PENNST. Kill by Jalyn Stout (set by Caroline Kerr). PENNST win probability 32% → 22%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TENN 51.5%48.5% PENNST

Tennessee wins

3-0
13.1%
3-1
19.4%
3-2
19.0%

Penn St. wins

3-0
11.9%
3-1
18.1%
3-2
18.5%
TENN break %
40.1% vs this opp
PENNST break %
39.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Jalyn StoutKill+10.0%

    Kill by Jalyn Stout (set by Caroline Kerr)

    Set 2 · TENN 24-23 PENNST · TENN 68% → 78%

  2. 02

    Kennedy Martin stuffed by Kennedi Rogers & Chelsea Sutton

    Set 2 · TENN 25-23 PENNST · TENN 78% → 88%

  3. 03
    Jalyn StoutKill+7.7%

    Kill by Jalyn Stout

    Set 2 · TENN 23-23 PENNST · TENN 60% → 68%

  4. 04

    Finley Krystkowiak stuffed by Jalyn Stout & Chelsea Sutton

    Set 4 · TENN 13-11 PENNST · TENN 80% → 84%

  5. 05

    Whitney Lauenstein stuffed by Jalyn Stout & Chelsea Sutton

    Set 2 · TENN 21-22 PENNST · TENN 57% → 62%

  6. 06
    Maggie DosticKill+4.5%

    Kill by Maggie Dostic (set by Caroline Kerr)

    Set 4 · TENN 11-10 PENNST · TENN 75% → 79%

  7. 07

    Kill by Gabrielle Nichols (set by Alexis Stucky)

    Set 2 · TENN 21-23 PENNST · PENNST 38% → 43%

  8. 08

    Kill by Kennedi Rogers (set by Caroline Kerr)

    Set 4 · TENN 10-10 PENNST · TENN 71% → 75%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
421755.255002100031.522.5
412526.26940061031.513.5
411329.2761227000013
45012.41700000052.57.5
44011.3644211130052.57.5
3135-.400000200212
4000–010100001
4000–010100001
4000–5021410000
4000–002000000
3114.000000000423
Team totals5519142.25452595420221195
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
420442.3810048002121
410321.3330012026515
49215.46700010031.510.5
44526-.038221501439
4207.28638001200002
25415.067001410005
4000–6011520000
4000–201510000
3000–001000000
22412-.167003110213
2102.50000010010.51.5
2002.000000000000
1000–000100000
Team totals5322142.218482135553181287

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 TENN · PENNST 4

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 4 TENNPENNST 3

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 4 TENNPENNST 3

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 4 TENNPENNST 4

Set 4

25-20

Longest run 7 TENNPENNST 4

Bars above the line = Penn St. leads, below = Tennessee leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Tennessee

SlotSideout %Break %
1
73%8/11
36%4/11
2
73%8/11
53%9/17
3
58%7/12
36%4/11
4
78%7/9
42%5/12
5
58%7/12
46%6/13
6
63%5/8
50%5/10
All
67%42/63
45%33/74

Penn St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%8/12
40%4/10
2
47%8/17
33%4/12
3
64%7/11
11%1/9
4
50%7/14
42%5/12
5
60%6/10
22%2/9
6
50%5/10
45%5/11
All
55%41/74
33%21/63

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

182 rallies

#TENN-PENNSTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1PENNSTPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+2.6
21-1PENNSTTENNKillMaggie Dosticset Caroline Kerr+1.7
32-1TENNTENNAceTennesseeaced Whitney Lauenstein+2.7
42-2TENNPENNST×3KillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+1.8
52-3PENNSTPENNST×3Bad setCaroline Kerr+2.7
62-4PENNSTPENNST×3KillHaley Burgdorfset Ava Falduto+2.7
73-4PENNSTTENNKillMaggie Dosticset Caroline Kerr+1.7
83-5TENNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.9
94-5PENNSTTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+1.8
105-5TENNTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Jocelyn Nathan+2.9
115-6TENNPENNSTBlockedJalyn Stoutblk Haley Burgdorf, Ryla Jones+2.0
126-6PENNSTTENN×4Serve errPenn St.+1.9
137-6TENNTENN×4BlockedRyla Jonesblk Kennedi Rogers, Jolene Oddo+3.0
148-6TENNTENN×4KillJolene Oddoset Caroline Kerr+3.0
159-6TENNTENN×4Attack errRyla Jones+2.8
169-7TENNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.7
1710-7PENNSTTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Raegan Burns+1.9
1810-8TENNPENNSTServe errTennessee+1.7
1911-8PENNSTTENNKillMaggie Dosticset Caroline Kerr+2.0
2011-9TENNPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+1.8
2112-9PENNSTTENNKillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr+2.0
2212-10TENNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.8
2313-10PENNSTTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+2.1
2413-11TENNPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+1.8
2514-11PENNSTTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+2.2
2614-12TENNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.9
2715-12PENNSTTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+2.2
2815-13TENNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.9
2916-13PENNSTTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+2.3
3016-14TENNPENNSTServe errTennessee+1.9
3117-14PENNSTTENNServe errPenn St.+2.4
3218-14TENNTENNAttack errWhitney Lauenstein+2.9
3318-15TENNPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+1.4
3419-15PENNSTTENNKillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr+2.0
3519-16TENNPENNSTServe errTennessee+1.4
3620-16PENNSTTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Raegan Burns+2.0
3721-16TENNTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+2.0
3821-17TENNPENNSTServe errTennessee+0.7
3922-17PENNSTTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+1.2
4022-18TENNPENNSTBad setJalyn Stout+0.6
4123-18PENNSTTENNServe errPenn St.+1.0
4223-19TENNPENNSTAttack errKennedi Rogers+0.4
4324-19PENNSTTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+0.8
4425-19TENNTENNAceTennesseeaced Ava Falduto+0.3
Set 2
10-1TENNPENNSTServe errTennessee+1.7
21-1PENNSTTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+1.7
31-2TENNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.8
42-2PENNSTTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+1.7
52-3TENNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Ava Falduto+1.8
63-3PENNSTTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+1.8
73-4TENNPENNSTServe errTennessee+1.8
84-4PENNSTTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Jalyn Stout+1.8
95-4TENNTENNBlockedHaley Burgdorfblk Caroline Kerr, Jolene Oddo+2.8
105-5TENNPENNSTKillRyla Jonesset Alexis Stucky+1.9
115-6PENNSTPENNSTBlockedJolene Oddoblk Haley Burgdorf+2.9
126-6PENNSTTENN×3KillCaroline Kerrset Jalyn Stout+1.9
137-6TENNTENN×3KillMaggie Dosticset Caroline Kerr+3.0
148-6TENNTENN×3Attack errKennedy Martin+2.9
158-7TENNPENNST×3Bad setRaegan Burns+1.9
168-8PENNSTPENNST×3KillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+3.0
178-9PENNSTPENNST×3AceHaley Burgdorfaced Jalyn Stout+3.2
189-9PENNSTTENNKillMaggie Dosticset Caroline Kerr+2.1
199-10TENNPENNSTKillRyla Jonesset Alexis Stucky+2.2
2010-10PENNSTTENNKillCaroline Kerrset Jalyn Stout+2.2
2110-11TENNPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Ava Falduto+2.3
2211-11PENNSTTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+2.2
2311-12TENNPENNST×3KillGabrielle Nicholsset Caroline Kerr+2.3
2411-13PENNSTPENNST×3KillKennedy Martin+3.5
2511-14PENNSTPENNST×3BlockedKennedi Rogersblk Gabrielle Nichols, Kennedy Martin+3.2
2612-14PENNSTTENNServe errPenn St.+1.9
2712-15TENNPENNST×3Serve errTennessee+2.2
2812-16PENNSTPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.9
2912-17PENNSTPENNST×3BlockedAnni Tangblk Ryla Jones+2.3
3013-17PENNSTTENN×3KillAnni Tangset Caroline Kerr+1.1
3114-17TENNTENN×3Attack errHaley Burgdorf+2.2
3215-17TENNTENN×3BlockedKennedy Martinblk Kennedi Rogers, Anni Tang+3.0
3315-18TENNPENNSTKillRyla Jonesset Alexis Stucky+2.5
3415-19PENNSTPENNSTAttack errKennedi Rogers+3.0
3516-19PENNSTTENNServe errPenn St.+1.4
3616-20TENNPENNSTKillHaley Burgdorfset Alexis Stucky+2.0
3716-21PENNSTPENNSTAceHaley Burgdorfaced Raegan Burns+2.0
3817-21PENNSTTENNBlockedWhitney Lauensteinblk Caroline Kerr, Anni Tang+0.7
3918-21TENNTENNBlockedWhitney Lauensteinblk Caroline Kerr, Chelsea Sutton+1.8
4018-22TENNPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+2.0
4119-22PENNSTTENN×3KillCaroline Kerrset Maggie Dostic+1.1
4220-22TENNTENN×3KillJalyn Stoutset Raegan Burns+2.8
4321-22TENNTENN×3BlockedWhitney Lauensteinblk Jalyn Stout, Chelsea Sutton+4.5
4421-23TENNPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+4.4
4522-23PENNSTTENN×4KillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+3.0
4623-23TENNTENN×4KillJalyn Stout+7.7
4724-23TENNTENN×4KillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+10.0
4825-23TENNTENN×4BlockedKennedy Martinblk Kennedi Rogers, Chelsea Sutton+10.0
Set 3
11-0PENNSTTENNKillMaggie Dosticset Caroline Kerr+1.2
22-0TENNTENNKillMaggie Dosticset Caroline Kerr+1.7
32-1TENNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.1
42-2PENNSTPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Jocelyn Nathan+1.8
53-2PENNSTTENNServe errPenn St.+1.2
63-3TENNPENNSTBad setRaegan Burns+1.2
73-4PENNSTPENNSTKillRyla Jones+1.9
84-4PENNSTTENNKillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr+1.2
94-5TENNPENNSTServe errTennessee+1.3
104-6PENNSTPENNSTKillAlexis Stuckyset Ava Falduto+1.9
115-6PENNSTTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+1.2
125-7PENNST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.3
135-8PENNSTPENNST×4BlockedJolene Oddoblk Ryla Jones, Finley Krystkowiak+1.9
145-9PENNSTPENNST×4BlockedJolene Oddoblk Ryla Jones+1.7
155-10PENNSTPENNST×4KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.5
166-10PENNSTTENNAttack errRyla Jones+0.8
177-10TENNTENNAttack errFinley Krystkowiak+1.5
187-11TENNPENNSTKillFinley Krystkowiakset Alexis Stucky+1.2
198-11PENNSTTENNBlockedFinley Krystkowiakblk Caroline Kerr, Anni Tang+1.0
209-11TENNTENNAttack errFinley Krystkowiak+1.8
219-12TENNPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+1.4
2210-12PENNSTTENNAttack errHaley Burgdorf+1.2
2310-13TENNPENNSTBlockedJalyn Stoutblk Gabrielle Nichols, Kennedy Martin+1.4
2411-13TENN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.2
2511-14TENNPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.5
2611-15PENNSTPENNST×3BlockedJalyn Stoutblk Ryla Jones, Haley Burgdorf+1.9
2711-16PENNSTPENNST×3BlockedJalyn Stoutblk Haley Burgdorf+1.5
2812-16PENNSTTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+0.7
2912-17TENNPENNSTKillRyla Jonesset Alexis Stucky+1.0
3013-17PENNSTTENN×4Serve errPenn St.+0.7
3114-17TENNTENN×4BlockedHaley Burgdorfblk Caroline Kerr, Anni Tang+1.5
3215-17TENNTENN×4KillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+2.0
3316-17TENNTENN×4KillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+2.5
3416-18TENNPENNSTBlockedMaggie Dosticblk Ryla Jones, Haley Burgdorf+2.0
3516-19PENNSTPENNSTAttack errKennedi Rogers+2.6
3617-19PENNSTTENNServe errPenn St.+1.4
3717-20TENNPENNSTKillRyla Jonesset Alexis Stucky+1.8
3818-20PENNSTTENNKillCaroline Kerrset Jalyn Stout+1.3
3918-21TENNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.9
4018-22PENNSTPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Ava Falduto+2.0
4119-22PENNSTTENNKillMaggie Dosticset Raegan Burns+0.7
4219-23TENNPENNSTAttack errMaggie Dostic+1.3
4319-24PENNSTPENNSTAttack errMaggie Dostic+0.8
4420-24PENNSTTENNServe errPenn St.+0.1
4520-25TENNPENNSTKillHaley Burgdorfset Ava Falduto+0.3
Set 4
10-1TENNPENNST×3KillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+2.3
20-2PENNSTPENNST×3BlockedJalyn Stoutblk Gabrielle Nichols, Finley Krystkowiak+3.5
30-3PENNSTPENNST×3Attack errKennedi Rogers+3.3
41-3PENNSTTENNKillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr+2.1
51-4TENNPENNSTKillFinley Krystkowiakset Haley Burgdorf+2.3
62-4PENNSTTENNServe errPenn St.+2.1
72-5TENNPENNST×3KillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+2.3
82-6PENNSTPENNST×3KillRyla Jones+3.2
92-7PENNSTPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.9
103-7PENNSTTENNServe errPenn St.+1.6
114-7TENNTENNAceTennesseeaced Jocelyn Nathan+2.9
124-8TENNPENNSTKillRyla Jonesset Alexis Stucky+2.2
135-8PENNSTTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+1.9
145-9TENNPENNSTKillAlexis Stuckyset Ava Falduto+2.3
156-9PENNSTTENN×3KillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+2.0
167-9TENNTENN×3KillMaggie Dosticset Caroline Kerr+3.4
178-9TENNTENN×3KillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+3.9
188-10TENNPENNSTKillRyla Jonesset Alexis Stucky+2.8
199-10PENNSTTENN×3Serve errPenn St.+2.6
2010-10TENNTENN×3KillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+4.3
2111-10TENNTENN×3KillMaggie Dosticset Caroline Kerr+4.5
2211-11TENNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+3.0
2312-11PENNSTTENN×7KillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr+3.1
2413-11TENNTENN×7BlockedFinley Krystkowiakblk Jalyn Stout, Chelsea Sutton+4.6
2514-11TENNTENN×7Attack errGabrielle Nichols+4.3
2615-11TENNTENN×7AceTennesseeaced Ava Falduto+3.7
2716-11TENNTENN×7BlockedKennedy Martinblk Jalyn Stout, Chelsea Sutton+2.9
2817-11TENNTENN×7Attack errGabrielle Nichols+2.1
2918-11TENNTENN×7AceTennesseeaced Finley Krystkowiak+1.4
3018-12TENNPENNSTServe errTennessee+0.5
3118-13PENNSTPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.3
3219-13PENNSTTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+1.3
3319-14TENNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+0.8
3419-15PENNSTPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.8
3520-15PENNSTTENN×4KillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+1.8
3621-15TENNTENN×4Attack errHaley Burgdorf+1.6
3722-15TENNTENN×4KillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+0.8
3823-15TENNTENN×4KillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+0.3
3923-16TENNPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Jocelyn Nathan·
4024-16PENNSTTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+0.1
4124-17TENNPENNST×4KillHaley Burgdorfset Alexis Stucky·
4224-18PENNSTPENNST×4BlockedKennedi Rogersblk Emmi Sellman, Ryla Jones+0.1
4324-19PENNSTPENNST×4Attack errKennedi Rogers+0.1
4424-20PENNSTPENNST×4KillEmmi Sellmanset Haley Burgdorf+0.3
4525-20PENNSTTENNKillMaggie Dosticset Raegan Burns+0.6

Score shown after each rally, Tennessee first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).