Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 22, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Belmont def. Murray St. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Belmont 98.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 22, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Belmont beat visiting Murray St. 3-1 (25-14, 20-25, 25-11, 25-23) on Thu, Oct 22, 2026. Erin McMullen led Belmont with 11 kills; Murray St.'s Alexa Watts had a match-high 13.

Data through · final Oct 22

Set1234Sets
MURRAY142511231
BELMNT252025253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Belmont broke it open with a 10–0 run in the third set.

The biggest single-rally swing was 1.8 points, and Murray St.'s high was 6% in Set 3. The gap came from these numbers. RallyIQ gave Belmont 98% before first serve.

Murray St.Belmont
  • Break %+12.6 pts
    45.958.5

    55 of 94 on serve vs 34 of 74, so Murray St.'s sideout was 41.5%.

  • Hitting+.142
    .080.222

    51 kills, 21 errors vs 38 kills, 27 errors.

  • Longest run+5
    510

    10 straight Belmont points in the third set turned a 0–1 deficit into a 10–1 lead. Final score of the set: 25–11.

Belmont above 50Murray St. belowMax swing 1.8%

Murray St.Belmont

Aces
Murray St. 6·Belmont 8
Serve err
Murray St. 9·Belmont 8
Blocks
Murray St. 10·Belmont 133 BS · 14 BA vs 3 BS · 20 BA
Digs
Murray St. 53·Belmont 58

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Belmont above 50 · Murray St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+1.8% MURRAYrally 168 · set 4

Biggest swing: 1.8% to Murray St. — set 4, MURRAY 19-19 BELMNT. Attack error by Sydnee Nelson. BELMNT win probability 97% → 95%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MURRAY 2.7%97.3% BELMNT

Murray St. wins

3-0
0.3%
3-1
0.7%
3-2
1.7%

Belmont wins

3-0
63.4%
3-1
26.8%
3-2
7.0%
MURRAY break %
35.1% vs this opp
BELMNT break %
49.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Sydnee NelsonAttack error+1.8%

    Attack error by Sydnee Nelson

    Set 4 · MURRAY 19-19 BELMNT · MURRAY 3% → 5%

  2. 02
    Sydnee NelsonKill+1.8%

    Kill by Sydnee Nelson (set by Jordan Czajkowski)

    Set 4 · MURRAY 23-25 BELMNT · BELMNT 98% → 100%

  3. 03
    Mya BoltonAce+1.6%

    Ace by Mya Bolton on Ada Tamturk

    Set 4 · MURRAY 19-21 BELMNT · BELMNT 97% → 98%

  4. 04
    Sydnee NelsonKill+1.5%

    Kill by Sydnee Nelson (set by Alivia Keegan)

    Set 4 · MURRAY 22-24 BELMNT · BELMNT 98% → 99%

  5. 05
    Erin McMullenAttack error+1.4%

    Attack error by Erin McMullen

    Set 4 · MURRAY 22-23 BELMNT · MURRAY 1% → 2%

  6. 06

    Mija Sagadin Pristovnik stuffed by Lucy Kay & Alivia Keegan

    Set 4 · MURRAY 19-20 BELMNT · BELMNT 95% → 97%

  7. 07
    Alexa WattsKill+1.2%

    Kill by Alexa Watts (set by Paige Brock)

    Set 4 · MURRAY 18-19 BELMNT · MURRAY 2% → 3%

  8. 08
    Alexa WattsAttack error+1.0%

    Attack error by Alexa Watts

    Set 4 · MURRAY 19-22 BELMNT · BELMNT 98% → 99%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413738.1580016004215
49122.36400140153.512.5
4111040.0250001000011
4208.250000001224
4001.00030011301222
31415-.200000520001
4000–0111140001
4000–512900001
32513-.23104222010.56.5
2000–001200000
1001.000200000000
Team totals3827138.08037695383141073
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411323.34810020153.514.5
410929.0341119002112
47116.37500020254.511.5
49127.29600021031.510.5
49530.1330117200010
4000–25001000000
4407.571140020052.56.5
4000–4311510003
4000–123200002
4000–112600001
2112.000000120001
1011-1.000000000000
Team totals5121135.22247885863201395

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Murray St. vs Belmont

Season series · Belmont leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 MURRAY · BELMNT 10

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 4 MURRAYBELMNT 6

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 5 MURRAYBELMNT 5

Set 3

11-25

Longest run 2 MURRAYBELMNT 10

Set 4

23-25

Longest run 3 MURRAYBELMNT 4

Bars above the line = Belmont leads, below = Murray St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Murray St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%8/17
56%9/16
2
29%8/28
43%6/14
3
47%7/15
53%9/17
4
60%6/10
46%6/13
5
31%5/16
29%2/7
6
63%5/8
29%2/7
All
41%39/94
46%34/74

Belmont

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%9/18
36%4/11
2
42%8/19
75%24/32
3
70%7/10
46%6/13
4
50%6/12
40%4/10
5
71%5/7
63%10/16
6
63%5/8
58%7/12
All
54%40/74
59%55/94

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

168 rallies

#MURRAY-BELMNTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1BELMNTBELMNTKillErin McMullenset Jordan Czajkowski+0.3
21-1BELMNTMURRAYKillAlexa Wattsset Paige Brock+0.2
31-2MURRAYBELMNT×6KillBrenna Kauffeldset Jordan Czajkowski+0.2
41-3BELMNTBELMNT×6Attack errMija Sagadin Pristovnik+0.2
51-4BELMNTBELMNT×6AceMadison Lansdownaced Mija Sagadin Pristovnik+0.2
61-5BELMNTBELMNT×6KillBrenna Kauffeldset Jordan Czajkowski+0.1
71-6BELMNTBELMNT×6KillEmily Warmenhovenset Jordan Czajkowski+0.1
81-7BELMNTBELMNT×6KillBrenna Kauffeldset Jordan Czajkowski+0.1
92-7BELMNTMURRAY×4KillAlexa Wattsset Samantha Nelson+0.1
103-7MURRAYMURRAY×4KillLily Burnettset Paige Brock+0.1
114-7MURRAYMURRAY×4KillLily Burnettset Paige Brock+0.1
125-7MURRAYMURRAY×4KillLily Burnettset Paige Brock+0.2
135-8MURRAYBELMNT×3KillEmily Warmenhovenset Mya Bolton+0.1
145-9BELMNTBELMNT×3BlockedAlexa Wattsblk Lucy Kay+0.2
155-10BELMNTBELMNT×3KillLucy Kayset Alivia Keegan+0.1
166-10BELMNTMURRAYKillLily Burnettset Paige Brock+0.1
176-11MURRAYBELMNTKillAlivia Keeganset Brenna Kauffeld+0.1
187-11BELMNTMURRAYServe errLauren Evans+0.1
197-12MURRAYBELMNT×4KillSydnee Nelsonset Alivia Keegan+0.1
207-13BELMNTBELMNT×4KillErin McMullen+0.1
217-14BELMNTBELMNT×4KillErin McMullenset Alivia Keegan+0.1
227-15BELMNTBELMNT×4AceMya Boltonaced Mija Sagadin Pristovnik·
238-15BELMNTMURRAYKillAnne Makowskiset Kathryn Titus·
248-16MURRAYBELMNTKillSydnee Nelsonset Alivia Keegan·
258-17BELMNTBELMNTAttack errAnne Makowski·
269-17BELMNTMURRAYKillAnne Makowskiset Kathryn Titus·
2710-17MURRAYMURRAYAttack errBrenna Kauffeld·
2810-18MURRAYBELMNT×3KillBrenna Kauffeldset Mya Bolton·
2910-19BELMNTBELMNT×3KillErin McMullenset Jordan Czajkowski·
3010-20BELMNTBELMNT×3BlockedAnne Makowskiblk Erin McMullen, Emily Warmenhoven·
3111-20BELMNTMURRAYKillAlexa Wattsset Paige Brock·
3211-21MURRAYBELMNTKillErin McMullenset Jordan Czajkowski·
3311-22BELMNTBELMNTKillLucy Kayset Jordan Czajkowski·
3412-22BELMNTMURRAYServe errMadison Lansdown·
3513-22MURRAYMURRAYAceSamantha Nelsonaced Emily Warmenhoven·
3613-23MURRAYBELMNTServe errSamantha Nelson·
3713-24BELMNTBELMNTAceBrenna Kauffeldaced Ada Tamturk·
3814-24BELMNTMURRAYServe errBrenna Kauffeld·
3914-25MURRAYBELMNTBlockedMija Sagadin Pristovnikblk Alivia Keegan, Lucy Kay·
Set 2
11-0MURRAYMURRAY×4KillAnne Makowskiset Paige Brock+0.2
22-0MURRAYMURRAY×4KillAlexa Watts+0.3
33-0MURRAYMURRAY×4BlockedSydnee Nelsonblk Teodora Cickovic, Alexa Watts+0.3
44-0MURRAYMURRAY×4Attack errBrenna Kauffeld+0.4
54-1MURRAYBELMNTServe errAda Tamturk+0.2
64-2BELMNTBELMNTAttack errCeren Durak+0.3
75-2BELMNTMURRAYKillTeodora Cickovicset Paige Brock+0.3
85-3MURRAYBELMNTKillBrenna Kauffeldset Jordan Czajkowski+0.2
95-4BELMNTBELMNTAceMadison Lansdownaced Ada Tamturk+0.3
106-4BELMNTMURRAYBlockedBrenna Kauffeldblk Ceren Durak, Lily Burnett+0.2
117-4MURRAYMURRAYBlockedLucy Kayblk Lily Burnett, Paige Brock+0.4
127-5MURRAYBELMNTKillEmily Warmenhovenset Jordan Czajkowski+0.2
138-5BELMNTMURRAY×4KillLily Burnettset Paige Brock+0.3
149-5MURRAYMURRAY×4AceCeren Durakaced Sydnee Nelson+0.4
1510-5MURRAYMURRAY×4AceCeren Durakaced Sydnee Nelson+0.5
1611-5MURRAYMURRAY×4Attack errBrenna Kauffeld+0.5
1711-6MURRAYBELMNTKillAlivia Keeganset Mya Bolton+0.2
1811-7BELMNTBELMNTBlockedLily Burnettblk Lucy Kay+0.4
1912-7BELMNTMURRAYKillLily Burnettset Paige Brock+0.4
2012-8MURRAYBELMNTKillLucy Kayset Alivia Keegan+0.3
2113-8BELMNTMURRAYKillAnne Makowskiset Samantha Nelson+0.4
2213-9MURRAYBELMNTKillErin McMullenset Paige Brock+0.3
2314-9BELMNTMURRAYAttack errSydnee Nelson+0.4
2414-10MURRAYBELMNT×5KillSydnee Nelsonset Jordan Czajkowski+0.3
2514-11BELMNTBELMNT×5BlockedAlexa Wattsblk Emily Warmenhoven, Erin McMullen+0.4
2614-12BELMNTBELMNT×5BlockedCeren Durakblk Erin McMullen, Brenna Kauffeld+0.5
2714-13BELMNTBELMNT×5Attack errAlexa Watts+0.4
2814-14BELMNTBELMNT×5KillBrenna Kauffeldset Jordan Czajkowski+0.4
2915-14BELMNTMURRAY×5KillAlexa Wattsset Paige Brock+0.3
3016-14MURRAYMURRAY×5BlockedEmily Warmenhovenblk Alexa Watts, Lily Burnett+0.6
3117-14MURRAYMURRAY×5KillAlexa Wattsset Paige Brock+0.7
3218-14MURRAYMURRAY×5Attack errBrenna Kauffeld+0.7
3319-14MURRAYMURRAY×5BlockedErin McMullenblk Lily Burnett, Alexa Watts+0.6
3419-15MURRAYBELMNTKillBrenna Kauffeldset Jordan Czajkowski+0.3
3519-16BELMNTBELMNTKillConnie Kofoedset Madison Lansdown+0.5
3620-16BELMNTMURRAYServe errMadison Lansdown+0.5
3720-17MURRAYBELMNT×3Serve errAlexa Watts+0.3
3820-18BELMNTBELMNT×3KillLucy Kay+0.6
3920-19BELMNTBELMNT×3Attack errAlexa Watts+0.7
4021-19BELMNTMURRAY×4KillCeren Durakset Paige Brock+0.7
4122-19MURRAYMURRAY×4AceCeren Durakaced Connie Kofoed+0.9
4223-19MURRAYMURRAY×4BlockedConnie Kofoedblk Paige Brock, Lily Burnett+0.8
4324-19MURRAYMURRAY×4BlockedMialee Dabbeltblk Paige Brock+0.4
4424-20MURRAYBELMNTServe errCeren Durak+0.1
4525-20BELMNTMURRAYKillAnne Makowskiset Paige Brock+0.2
Set 3
11-0BELMNTMURRAYKillAlexa Wattsset Samantha Nelson+0.8
21-1MURRAYBELMNT×10Serve errPaige Brock+0.7
31-2BELMNTBELMNT×10KillErin McMullenset Jordan Czajkowski+0.8
41-3BELMNTBELMNT×10BlockedAnne Makowskiblk Erin McMullen, Brenna Kauffeld+0.7
51-4BELMNTBELMNT×10KillBrenna Kauffeldset Jordan Czajkowski+0.6
61-5BELMNTBELMNT×10Attack errAnne Makowski+0.4
71-6BELMNTBELMNT×10KillEmily Warmenhovenset Jordan Czajkowski+0.3
81-7BELMNTBELMNT×10AceSydnee Nelsonaced Ceren Durak+0.2
91-8BELMNTBELMNT×10KillErin McMullenset Jordan Czajkowski+0.2
101-9BELMNTBELMNT×10BlockedAnne Makowskiblk Erin McMullen+0.1
111-10BELMNTBELMNT×10Attack errAlexa Watts+0.1
122-10BELMNTMURRAYServe errSydnee Nelson·
133-10MURRAYMURRAYKillAlexa Wattsset Paige Brock+0.1
143-11MURRAYBELMNTKillEmily Warmenhovenset Jordan Czajkowski+0.1
153-12BELMNTBELMNTAttack errAlexa Watts+0.1
164-12BELMNTMURRAYKillMija Sagadin Pristovnikset Paige Brock·
174-13MURRAYBELMNTKillBrenna Kauffeldset Jordan Czajkowski·
185-13BELMNTMURRAYKillAlexa Wattsset Paige Brock·
195-14MURRAYBELMNT×4KillLucy Kayset Alivia Keegan·
205-15BELMNTBELMNT×4AceLauren Evansaced Ada Tamturk·
215-16BELMNTBELMNT×4BlockedMija Sagadin Pristovnikblk Alivia Keegan, Lucy Kay·
225-17BELMNTBELMNT×4BlockedCeren Durakblk Alivia Keegan, Lucy Kay·
236-17BELMNTMURRAYServe errLauren Evans·
246-18MURRAYBELMNTKillLucy Kayset Alivia Keegan·
256-19BELMNTBELMNTAceMya Boltonaced Ceren Durak·
267-19BELMNTMURRAYKillLily Burnettset Paige Brock·
277-20MURRAYBELMNTAttack errAnne Makowski·
288-20BELMNTMURRAYKillAnne Makowskiset Paige Brock·
299-20MURRAYMURRAYBlockedBrenna Kauffeldblk Teodora Cickovic·
309-21MURRAYBELMNT×4KillSydnee Nelsonset Jordan Czajkowski·
319-22BELMNTBELMNT×4Attack errAnne Makowski·
329-23BELMNTBELMNT×4KillErin McMullenset Jordan Czajkowski·
339-24BELMNTBELMNT×4BlockedAnne Makowskiblk Erin McMullen, Emily Warmenhoven·
3410-24BELMNTMURRAYKillAnne Makowskiset Paige Brock·
3511-24MURRAYMURRAYAceAda Tamturkaced Connie Kofoed·
3611-25MURRAYBELMNTKillEmily Warmenhovenset Erin McMullen·
Set 4
11-0MURRAYMURRAYKillCeren Durakset Paige Brock+0.7
22-0MURRAYMURRAYAceCeren Durakaced Mya Bolton+0.9
32-1MURRAYBELMNTKillSydnee Nelsonset Jordan Czajkowski+0.5
42-2BELMNTBELMNTKillEmily Warmenhovenset Jordan Czajkowski+0.7
53-2BELMNTMURRAYKillAnne Makowskiset Paige Brock+0.6
64-2MURRAYMURRAYAttack errBrenna Kauffeld+1.0
74-3MURRAYBELMNTServe errSamantha Nelson+0.6
85-3BELMNTMURRAYKillAnne Makowskiset Paige Brock+0.8
95-4MURRAYBELMNT×3Serve errMelis Aydin+0.6
105-5BELMNTBELMNT×3BlockedAnne Makowskiblk Lucy Kay, Alivia Keegan+0.8
115-6BELMNTBELMNT×3KillLucy Kayset Alivia Keegan+0.7
126-6BELMNTMURRAYKillLily Burnettset Paige Brock+0.6
136-7MURRAYBELMNT×3KillEmily Warmenhovenset Alivia Keegan+0.5
146-8BELMNTBELMNT×3KillAlivia Keeganset Mya Bolton+0.6
156-9BELMNTBELMNT×3KillAlivia Keegan+0.5
167-9BELMNTMURRAYAttack errSydnee Nelson+0.4
177-10MURRAYBELMNT×3Serve errLily Burnett+0.3
187-11BELMNTBELMNT×3Attack errCeren Durak+0.4
197-12BELMNTBELMNT×3KillErin McMullenset Alivia Keegan+0.3
208-12BELMNTMURRAYServe errMya Bolton+0.2
218-13MURRAYBELMNTKillSydnee Nelsonset Alivia Keegan+0.2
228-14BELMNTBELMNTKillSydnee Nelsonset Lauren Evans+0.2
239-14BELMNTMURRAY×3KillAlexa Wattsset Paige Brock+0.1
2410-14MURRAYMURRAY×3KillAlexa Wattsset Samantha Nelson+0.3
2511-14MURRAYMURRAY×3BlockedSydnee Nelsonblk Alexa Watts, Teodora Cickovic+0.4
2611-15MURRAYBELMNTServe errCeren Durak+0.3
2712-15BELMNTMURRAYKillAnne Makowskiset Paige Brock+0.3
2812-16MURRAYBELMNTKillEmily Warmenhovenset Jordan Czajkowski+0.3
2913-16BELMNTMURRAY×3Serve errMadison Lansdown+0.3
3014-16MURRAYMURRAY×3BlockedBrenna Kauffeldblk Lily Burnett+0.7
3115-16MURRAYMURRAY×3KillAlexa Wattsset Paige Brock+1.0
3215-17MURRAYBELMNTAttack errAnne Makowski+0.7
3316-17BELMNTMURRAYKillAnne Makowskiset Samantha Nelson+0.8
3416-18MURRAYBELMNTKillBrenna Kauffeldset Alivia Keegan+0.8
3516-19BELMNTBELMNTAttack errCeren Durak+0.9
3617-19BELMNTMURRAY×3KillLily Burnettset Paige Brock+0.5
3718-19MURRAYMURRAY×3KillAlexa Wattsset Paige Brock+1.2
3819-19MURRAYMURRAY×3Attack errSydnee Nelson+1.8
3919-20MURRAYBELMNT×4BlockedMija Sagadin Pristovnikblk Lucy Kay, Alivia Keegan+1.3
4019-21BELMNTBELMNT×4AceMya Boltonaced Ada Tamturk+1.6
4119-22BELMNTBELMNT×4Attack errAlexa Watts+1.0
4219-23BELMNTBELMNT×4KillErin McMullenset Alivia Keegan+0.5
4320-23BELMNTMURRAY×3KillTeodora Cickovicset Paige Brock+0.2
4421-23MURRAYMURRAY×3Attack errErin McMullen+0.6
4522-23MURRAYMURRAY×3Attack errErin McMullen+1.4
4622-24MURRAYBELMNTKillSydnee Nelsonset Alivia Keegan+1.5
4723-24BELMNTMURRAYAttack errBrenna Kauffeld+0.9
4823-25MURRAYBELMNTKillSydnee Nelsonset Jordan Czajkowski+1.8

Score shown after each rally, Murray St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).