FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayMETRO

3:0

HomePATRIOT

Fairfield def. Colgate 3–0

(25-14, 25-20, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
FAIR	25	25	25	3
COLGAT	14	20	15	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

COLGAT above 50 · FAIR below

Biggest swing: 2.2% to Fairfield — set 2, FAIR 10-9 COLGAT. Kill by Mamie Krubally (set by Nicole Macalintal). COLGAT win probability 18% → 16%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

FAIR 70.0%30.0% COLGAT

Fairfield wins

3-0

23.2%

3-1

26.9%

3-2

19.9%

Colgate wins

3-0

5.7%

3-1

10.5%

3-2

13.8%

FAIR break %: 45.0% vs this opp
COLGAT break %: 41.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Mamie KruballyKill+2.2%
Kill by Mamie Krubally (set by Nicole Macalintal)
Set 2 · FAIR 10-9 COLGAT · FAIR 82% → 84%
02
FAIR serverAce+2.2%
Fairfield ace on Tiana Owens
Set 1 · FAIR 3-2 COLGAT · FAIR 70% → 72%
03
FAIR serverAce+2.2%
Fairfield ace on Aubrey Anders
Set 2 · FAIR 12-10 COLGAT · FAIR 84% → 87%
04
Emma BortolottiKill+2.1%
Kill by Emma Bortolotti (set by Noella Migliuri)
Set 1 · FAIR 5-3 COLGAT · FAIR 72% → 74%
05
Aubrey AndersKill+2.0%
Kill by Aubrey Anders (set by Hannah Langton)
Set 2 · FAIR 2-4 COLGAT · COLGAT 19% → 21%
06
Jordyn MooreAttack error+2.0%
Jordyn Moore stuffed by Emma Bortolotti & Harlan Wyche
Set 2 · FAIR 14-11 COLGAT · FAIR 87% → 89%
07
Katelyn CookAttack error+2.0%
Attack error by Katelyn Cook
Set 2 · FAIR 20-18 COLGAT · COLGAT 9% → 11%
08
FAIR serverAce+2.0%
Fairfield ace on Team
Set 1 · FAIR 7-4 COLGAT · FAIR 74% → 76%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Fairfieldaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Harlan WycheMB	3	3	0	5	.600	0	1	1	1	0	2	5	4.5	8.5
8Katelyn CookOH	3	6	2	17	.235	1	2	2	8	0	0	0	0	8
7Aislin OldachOH	3	7	2	22	.227	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
1Mamie KruballyOH	3	5	1	11	.364	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	6
3Sophia NagyMB	3	5	1	8	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	6
11Zofia SykutS	3	0	0	0	–	16	1	0	7	0	0	0	0	1
6Emma BortolottiOH	3	7	0	10	.700	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	3	10
10Noella MigliuriS	3	0	0	1	.000	9	2	2	5	0	0	0	0	2
12Julie DufourtL/DS	3	1	0	4	.250	2	0	1	7	1	0	0	0	1
9Nicole MacalintalL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	1
18Natalie CarlinL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		34	6	78	.359	33	7	7	40	1	3	14	10	75

Colgatehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
20Tiana OwensOH	3	8	4	24	.167	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	8
6Aubrey AndersOH	3	5	6	24	-.042	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	5
8Julia HeadleyMB	3	3	1	11	.182	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	3
4Ava SchabesS	3	0	0	0	–	12	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
9Charlotte GoldfederOPP	1	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
26Stella LabrecqueMB	1	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23Morgan ReeseOH	3	9	2	18	.389	1	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	9.5
3Reagan KniplingS	3	2	1	5	.200	11	1	0	5	0	0	0	3
12Hannah LangtonL/DS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	6	0	3	11	0	0	0	0
14Nina GannonMB	2	2	1	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
2Julia OsterL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
18Jordyn MooreS	1	3	3	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
7Sophia TowleOH	1	0	5	5	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Sydney RaszewskiL/DS	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		34	25	111	.081	32	1	7	28	7	2	1	49

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 FAIR · COLGAT 4

Set 1

25-14

Longest run 4 FAIRCOLGAT 2

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 4 FAIRCOLGAT 4

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 7 FAIRCOLGAT 2

Bars above the line = Colgate leads, below = Fairfield leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Fairfield

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	57%8/14
2	88%7/8	22%2/9
3	78%7/9	42%5/12
4	86%6/7	67%12/18
5	71%5/7	58%7/12
6	83%5/6	44%4/9
All	74%37/50	51%38/74

Colgate

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	45%5/11
2	78%7/9	22%2/9
3	50%6/12	22%2/9
4	30%6/20	14%1/7
5	63%5/8	25%2/8
6	45%5/11	17%1/6
All	49%36/74	26%13/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

124 rallies

Rally log

#	FAIR-COLGAT	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Julia Headley	set Ava Schabes	+1.7
2	1-1	COLGAT	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Nicole Macalintal	+1.6
3	1-2	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Charlotte Goldfeder	set Ava Schabes	+1.7
4	2-2	COLGAT	FAIR	Kill	Katelyn Cook	set Nicole Macalintal	+1.6
5	3-2	FAIR	FAIR	Ace	FAIR server	aced Tiana Owens	+2.2
6	3-3	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Tiana Owens	set Ava Schabes	+1.7
7	4-3	COLGAT	FAIR	Kill	Harlan Wyche	set Zofia Sykut	+1.7
8	5-3	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+2.1
9	5-4	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Morgan Reese	set Reagan Knipling	+1.6
10	6-4	COLGAT	FAIR×3	Serve err	COLGAT server		+1.6
11	7-4	FAIR	FAIR×3	Ace	FAIR server	aced Team	+2.0
12	8-4	FAIR	FAIR×3	Bad set	Reagan Knipling		+1.8
13	8-5	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Morgan Reese	set Reagan Knipling	+1.2
14	9-5	COLGAT	FAIR	Attack err	Aubrey Anders		+1.3
15	10-5	FAIR	FAIR	Ace	FAIR server	aced Aubrey Anders	+1.5
16	10-6	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Morgan Reese	set Reagan Knipling	+1.0
17	11-6	COLGAT	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Katelyn Cook	+1.1
18	11-7	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Aubrey Anders	set Ava Schabes	+1.0
19	11-8	COLGAT	COLGAT	Kill	Tiana Owens	set Hannah Langton	+1.7
20	12-8	COLGAT	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+1.4
21	12-9	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Charlotte Goldfeder	set Ava Schabes	+1.3
22	13-9	COLGAT	FAIR×3	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+1.4
23	14-9	FAIR	FAIR×3	Attack err	Charlotte Goldfeder		+1.6
24	15-9	FAIR	FAIR×3	Attack err	Tiana Owens		+1.2
25	15-10	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Tiana Owens	set Hannah Langton	+0.7
26	15-11	COLGAT	COLGAT	Kill	Tiana Owens	set Morgan Reese	+1.3
27	16-11	COLGAT	FAIR×3	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+1.2
28	17-11	FAIR	FAIR×3	Attack err	Tiana Owens	blk Emma Bortolotti, Harlan Wyche	+1.2
29	18-11	FAIR	FAIR×3	Attack err	Morgan Reese		+0.8
30	18-12	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Tiana Owens	set Hannah Langton	+0.4
31	19-12	COLGAT	FAIR	Serve err	COLGAT server		+0.5
32	20-12	FAIR	FAIR	Ace	FAIR server	aced Team	+0.4
33	20-13	FAIR	COLGAT	Attack err	Katelyn Cook		+0.2
34	21-13	COLGAT	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+0.2
35	21-14	FAIR	COLGAT	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.1
36	22-14	COLGAT	FAIR×4	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Nicole Macalintal	+0.2
37	23-14	FAIR	FAIR×4	Ace	FAIR server	aced Aubrey Anders	+0.1
38	24-14	FAIR	FAIR×4	Attack err	Aubrey Anders	blk Sophia Nagy, Mamie Krubally	+0.0
39	25-14	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Zofia Sykut	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	COLGAT	COLGAT	Attack err	Sophia Nagy		+1.8
2	1-1	COLGAT	FAIR	Attack err	Nina Gannon		+1.3
3	1-2	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Morgan Reese	set Hannah Langton	+1.4
4	2-2	COLGAT	FAIR	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Zofia Sykut	+1.4
5	2-3	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Nina Gannon	set Reagan Knipling	+1.5
6	2-4	COLGAT	COLGAT	Kill	Aubrey Anders	set Hannah Langton	+2.0
7	3-4	COLGAT	FAIR	Serve err	COLGAT server		+1.4
8	3-5	FAIR	COLGAT	Serve err	FAIR server		+1.6
9	4-5	COLGAT	FAIR	Kill	Harlan Wyche	set Noella Migliuri	+1.5
10	5-5	FAIR	FAIR	Attack err	Aubrey Anders		+2.0
11	5-6	FAIR	COLGAT	Serve err	FAIR server		+1.6
12	6-6	COLGAT	FAIR	Serve err	COLGAT server		+1.5
13	6-7	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Tiana Owens	set Ava Schabes	+1.6
14	7-7	COLGAT	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Noella Migliuri	+1.6
15	7-8	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Jordyn Moore	set Ava Schabes	+1.7
16	8-8	COLGAT	FAIR	Attack err	Morgan Reese		+1.6
17	8-9	FAIR	COLGAT	Attack err	Mamie Krubally		+1.7
18	9-9	COLGAT	FAIR	Kill	Katelyn Cook	set Zofia Sykut	+1.7
19	10-9	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Nicole Macalintal	+2.2
20	10-10	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Aubrey Anders	set Hannah Langton	+1.7
21	11-10	COLGAT	FAIR	Serve err	COLGAT server		+1.7
22	12-10	FAIR	FAIR	Ace	FAIR server	aced Aubrey Anders	+2.2
23	12-11	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Julia Headley	set Reagan Knipling	+1.6
24	13-11	COLGAT	FAIR×4	Kill	Katelyn Cook	set Julie Dufourt	+1.7
25	14-11	FAIR	FAIR×4	Attack err	Jordyn Moore	blk Emma Bortolotti, Harlan Wyche	+2.0
26	15-11	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+1.7
27	16-11	FAIR	FAIR×4	Attack err	Aubrey Anders	blk Emma Bortolotti, Harlan Wyche	+1.3
28	16-12	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Jordyn Moore	set Ava Schabes	+0.8
29	16-13	COLGAT	COLGAT	Kill	Jordyn Moore	set Ava Schabes	+1.4
30	17-13	COLGAT	FAIR	Attack err	Julia Headley	blk Harlan Wyche	+1.3
31	17-14	FAIR	COLGAT	Attack err	Emma Bortolotti		+1.1
32	18-14	COLGAT	FAIR×3	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Noella Migliuri	+1.3
33	19-14	FAIR	FAIR×3	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+1.3
34	20-14	FAIR	FAIR×3	Attack err	Jordyn Moore	blk Sophia Nagy, Aislin Oldach	+0.8
35	20-15	FAIR	COLGAT×4	Kill	Tiana Owens	set Ava Schabes	+0.4
36	20-16	COLGAT	COLGAT×4	Attack err	Aislin Oldach		+0.8
37	20-17	COLGAT	COLGAT×4	Kill	Morgan Reese	set Reagan Knipling	+1.3
38	20-18	COLGAT	COLGAT×4	Attack err	Katelyn Cook		+2.0
39	21-18	COLGAT	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+2.0
40	22-18	FAIR	FAIR	Attack err	Aubrey Anders	blk Mamie Krubally, Harlan Wyche	+1.8
41	22-19	FAIR	COLGAT	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.8
42	23-19	COLGAT	FAIR	Serve err	COLGAT server		+1.3
43	23-20	FAIR	COLGAT	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.6
44	24-20	COLGAT	FAIR	Kill	Julie Dufourt	set Ava Schabes	+1.2
45	25-20	FAIR	FAIR	Attack err	Jordyn Moore		+0.5
Set 3
1	0-1	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Morgan Reese	set Ava Schabes	+0.8
2	1-1	COLGAT	FAIR	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Zofia Sykut	+0.7
3	2-1	FAIR	FAIR	Attack err	Sophia Towle		+1.0
4	2-2	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Morgan Reese	set Ava Schabes	+0.7
5	3-2	COLGAT	FAIR	Attack err	Sophia Towle		+0.7
6	3-3	FAIR	COLGAT	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.8
7	4-3	COLGAT	FAIR×7	Kill	Katelyn Cook	set Zofia Sykut	+0.8
8	5-3	FAIR	FAIR×7	Attack err	Sophia Towle		+1.0
9	6-3	FAIR	FAIR×7	Attack err	Sophia Towle	blk Emma Bortolotti	+0.9
10	7-3	FAIR	FAIR×7	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Julie Dufourt	+0.8
11	8-3	FAIR	FAIR×7	Attack err	Hannah Langton		+0.7
12	9-3	FAIR	FAIR×7	Attack err	Sophia Towle		+0.5
13	10-3	FAIR	FAIR×7	Ace	FAIR server	aced Julia Headley	+0.4
14	10-4	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Reagan Knipling	set Aubrey Anders	+0.3
15	11-4	COLGAT	FAIR	Serve err	COLGAT server		+0.3
16	11-5	FAIR	COLGAT	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.3
17	11-6	COLGAT	COLGAT	Kill	Nina Gannon		+0.5
18	12-6	COLGAT	FAIR×4	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+0.4
19	13-6	FAIR	FAIR×4	Attack err	Tiana Owens		+0.4
20	14-6	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Noella Migliuri	+0.3
21	15-6	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Noella Migliuri	+0.2
22	15-7	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Tiana Owens	set Reagan Knipling	+0.1
23	15-8	COLGAT	COLGAT	Ace	COLGAT server	aced Julie Dufourt	+0.2
24	16-8	COLGAT	FAIR×4	Attack err	Aubrey Anders		+0.2
25	17-8	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Zofia Sykut	+0.2
26	18-8	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.1
27	19-8	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+0.0
28	19-9	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Morgan Reese	set Reagan Knipling	+0.0
29	19-10	COLGAT	COLGAT	Attack err	Aislin Oldach	blk Nina Gannon, Morgan Reese	+0.0
30	20-10	COLGAT	FAIR	Bad set	Reagan Knipling		+0.0
31	20-11	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Morgan Reese	set Reagan Knipling	+0.0
32	20-12	COLGAT	COLGAT	Kill	Julia Headley	set Reagan Knipling	+0.1
33	21-12	COLGAT	FAIR	Kill	Katelyn Cook	set Zofia Sykut	+0.1
34	22-12	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Katelyn Cook	set Nicole Macalintal	+0.0
35	22-13	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Aubrey Anders	set Reagan Knipling	+0.0
36	23-13	COLGAT	FAIR	Kill	Harlan Wyche	set Zofia Sykut	+0.0
37	24-13	FAIR	FAIR	Attack err	Reagan Knipling	blk Harlan Wyche	+0.0
38	24-14	FAIR	COLGAT	Kill	Aubrey Anders	set Julia Headley	+0.0
39	24-15	COLGAT	COLGAT	Kill	Reagan Knipling	set Noella Migliuri	+0.0
40	25-15	COLGAT	FAIR	Attack err	Tiana Owens	blk Emma Bortolotti, Harlan Wyche	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Fairfield first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.