Fairfield def. Holy Cross 3–1
(22-25, 25-18, 25-21, 25-21)| Set | 1 | 2 | 3* | 4 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAIR | 22 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 3 |
| HOLYCR | 25 | 18 | 21 | 21 | 1 |
- * Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
RallyIQ model
Win probability
Biggest swing: 5.9% to Holy Cross — set 1, FAIR 22-24 HOLYCR. Holy Cross ace on Aislin Oldach. HOLYCR win probability 22% → 28%.
Before first serve
Pre-match
Fairfield wins
Holy Cross wins
- FAIR break %
- 48.5% vs this opp
- HOLYCR break %
- 40.1% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Largest win-probability swings
Top plays
- 01HOLYCR serverAce+5.9%
Holy Cross ace on Aislin Oldach
Set 1 · FAIR 22-24 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 22% → 28%
- 02Katelyn CookAttack error+5.4%
Katelyn Cook stuffed by Lacey Murphy & Keira Mullen
Set 1 · FAIR 22-23 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 17% → 22%
- 03HOLYCR serverAce+4.1%
Holy Cross ace on Aislin Oldach
Set 3 · FAIR 12-14 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 26% → 30%
- 04HOLYCR serverAce+4.1%
Holy Cross ace on Aislin Oldach
Set 1 · FAIR 22-25 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 28% → 32%
- 05Lacey MurphyKill+3.9%
Kill by Lacey Murphy (set by Drew Flanagan)
Set 1 · FAIR 22-22 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 13% → 17%
- 06Aislin OldachAttack error+3.7%
Attack error by Aislin Oldach
Set 3 · FAIR 12-13 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 22% → 26%
- 07Kat TeepeAttack error+3.7%
Kat Teepe stuffed by Harlan Wyche
Set 3 · FAIR 14-14 HOLYCR · FAIR 73% → 77%
- 08Emma SorensenAttack error+3.5%
Emma Sorensen stuffed by Harlan Wyche & Mamie Krubally
Set 3 · FAIR 15-14 HOLYCR · FAIR 77% → 80%
Official NCAA box
Box score
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 14 | 2 | 34 | .353 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17 | |
| 4 | 11 | 4 | 21 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5.5 | 16.5 | |
| 4 | 12 | 3 | 24 | .375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 14 | |
| 4 | 5 | 0 | 11 | .455 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -.154 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | -.067 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |
| 4 | 9 | 2 | 29 | .241 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 10 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 57 | 20 | 147 | .252 | 55 | 3 | 12 | 73 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 97 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 13 | 8 | 61 | .082 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.5 | 16.5 | |
| 4 | 7 | 3 | 14 | .286 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 11 | |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | .077 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 4.5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -.500 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 18 | .111 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -.154 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 4.5 | |
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 17 | .118 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 1 | 11 | .273 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 4.5 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -.333 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -.333 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 45 | 33 | 162 | .074 | 38 | 7 | 4 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 85 |
Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Point differential by rally
Momentum
Set 1
22-25
Set 2
25-18
Set 3*
25-21
Set 4
25-21
Bars above the line = Holy Cross leads, below = Fairfield leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Rotations
Fairfield
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50%8/16 | 36%4/11 |
| 2 | 80%8/10 | 47%7/15 |
| 3 | 88%7/8 | 50%7/14 |
| 4 | 86%6/7 | 33%3/9 |
| 5 | 55%6/11 | 45%5/11 |
| 6 | 42%5/12 | 50%6/12 |
| All | 63%40/64 | 44%32/72 |
Holy Cross
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67%8/12 | 50%6/12 |
| 2 | 44%8/18 | 27%3/11 |
| 3 | 64%7/11 | 20%2/10 |
| 4 | 67%6/9 | 13%1/8 |
| 5 | 46%6/13 | 40%4/10 |
| 6 | 56%5/9 | 62%8/13 |
| All | 56%40/72 | 38%24/64 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
182 rallies
Rally log
| # | FAIR-HOLYCR | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×5 | Kill | Keira Mullen | set Drew Flanagan | +1.4 |
| 2 | 0-2 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×5 | Kill | Isa Glover | set Drew Flanagan | +1.6 |
| 3 | 0-3 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×5 | Ace | HOLYCR server | aced Natalie Carlin | +1.7 |
| 4 | 0-4 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×5 | Kill | Isa Glover | +1.8 | |
| 5 | 0-5 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×5 | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Alana Whitwell | +1.8 |
| 6 | 1-5 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Sophia Nagy | set Zofia Sykut | +1.2 |
| 7 | 2-5 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +1.6 |
| 8 | 2-6 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Drew Flanagan | +1.5 |
| 9 | 3-6 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +1.2 |
| 10 | 4-6 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | Isa Glover | +1.6 | |
| 11 | 4-7 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Isa Glover | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.5 |
| 12 | 5-7 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Attack err | KK Green | blk Emma Bortolotti | +1.3 |
| 13 | 6-7 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Katelyn Cook | set Noella Migliuri | +1.7 |
| 14 | 6-8 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.5 |
| 15 | 7-8 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Noella Migliuri | +1.4 |
| 16 | 8-8 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | KK Green | +1.7 | |
| 17 | 8-9 | FAIR | HOLYCR×3 | Serve err | FAIR server | +1.5 | |
| 18 | 8-10 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×3 | Attack err | Sophia Nagy | +2.0 | |
| 19 | 8-11 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×3 | Kill | KK Green | set Drew Flanagan | +2.2 |
| 20 | 9-11 | HOLYCR | FAIR×4 | Attack err | Keira Mullen | blk Sophia Nagy, Katelyn Cook | +1.5 |
| 21 | 10-11 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Ace | FAIR server | aced Emma Sorensen | +1.9 |
| 22 | 11-11 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Attack err | Keira Mullen | +1.9 | |
| 23 | 12-11 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Natalie Carlin | +1.8 |
| 24 | 12-12 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Katelyn Cook | +1.5 | |
| 25 | 12-13 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Keira Mullen | set Drew Flanagan | +2.2 |
| 26 | 13-13 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Sophia Nagy | set Zofia Sykut | +1.6 |
| 27 | 14-13 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +2.0 |
| 28 | 14-14 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set KK Green | +1.7 |
| 29 | 15-14 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Serve err | HOLYCR server | +1.6 | |
| 30 | 15-15 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Elizabeth Hall | +1.8 |
| 31 | 16-15 | HOLYCR | FAIR×4 | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +1.7 |
| 32 | 17-15 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Attack err | Emma Sorensen | blk Harlan Wyche, Emma Bortolotti | +2.0 |
| 33 | 18-15 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Natalie Carlin | +1.7 |
| 34 | 19-15 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Attack err | Isa Glover | blk Aislin Oldach | +1.3 |
| 35 | 19-16 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | FAIR server | +0.8 | |
| 36 | 20-16 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Noella Migliuri | +1.0 |
| 37 | 20-17 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Emma Bortolotti | +0.8 | |
| 38 | 21-17 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Noella Migliuri | +1.0 |
| 39 | 21-18 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Katelyn Cook | blk Lacey Murphy, Kat Teepe | +0.7 |
| 40 | 21-19 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Bad set | Noella Migliuri | +1.5 | |
| 41 | 22-19 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Attack err | KK Green | +1.6 | |
| 42 | 22-20 | FAIR | HOLYCR×6 | Kill | KK Green | set Drew Flanagan | +1.2 |
| 43 | 22-21 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×6 | Attack err | Sophia Nagy | +2.5 | |
| 44 | 22-22 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×6 | Kill | Lacey Murphy | set Drew Flanagan | +3.9 |
| 45 | 22-23 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×6 | Attack err | Katelyn Cook | blk Lacey Murphy, Keira Mullen | +5.4 |
| 46 | 22-24 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×6 | Ace | HOLYCR server | aced Aislin Oldach | +5.9 |
| 47 | 22-25 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×6 | Ace | HOLYCR server | aced Aislin Oldach | +4.1 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +2.2 |
| 2 | 2-0 | FAIR | FAIR | Ace | FAIR server | aced Emma Sorensen | +2.0 |
| 3 | 2-1 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | FAIR server | +1.6 | |
| 4 | 3-1 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +1.6 |
| 5 | 4-1 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +1.8 |
| 6 | 4-2 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Harlan Wyche | blk Isa Glover, Emma Sorensen | +1.4 |
| 7 | 4-3 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Ace | HOLYCR server | aced Natalie Carlin | +2.1 |
| 8 | 5-3 | HOLYCR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +1.7 |
| 9 | 6-3 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Katelyn Cook | set Zofia Sykut | +1.9 |
| 10 | 7-3 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Attack err | Keira Mullen | +1.6 | |
| 11 | 7-4 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Katelyn Cook | +1.2 | |
| 12 | 8-4 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +1.3 |
| 13 | 8-5 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | FAIR server | +1.3 | |
| 14 | 9-5 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Zofia Sykut | set Aislin Oldach | +1.3 |
| 15 | 9-6 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Lacey Murphy | set Keira Mullen | +1.3 |
| 16 | 10-6 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Serve err | HOLYCR server | +1.4 | |
| 17 | 10-7 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | KK Green | set Elizabeth Hall | +1.3 |
| 18 | 10-8 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Mamie Krubally | blk Emma Sorensen, Lacey Murphy | +2.1 |
| 19 | 11-8 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +1.7 |
| 20 | 12-8 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Natalie Carlin | +1.8 |
| 21 | 12-9 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Lacey Murphy | set Drew Flanagan | +1.4 |
| 22 | 12-10 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Harlan Wyche | +2.2 | |
| 23 | 13-10 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +1.8 |
| 24 | 13-11 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Keira Mullen | set Drew Flanagan | +1.8 |
| 25 | 14-11 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +1.9 |
| 26 | 14-12 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Isa Glover | set Noella Migliuri | +1.9 |
| 27 | 15-12 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Attack err | KK Green | +2.0 | |
| 28 | 16-12 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +2.0 |
| 29 | 16-13 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | KK Green | set Keira Mullen | +1.4 |
| 30 | 17-13 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Zofia Sykut | set Natalie Carlin | +1.6 |
| 31 | 18-13 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | Lacey Murphy | +1.5 | |
| 32 | 18-14 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Keira Mullen | +0.9 |
| 33 | 18-15 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Sophia Nagy | blk Lacey Murphy | +1.8 |
| 34 | 19-15 | HOLYCR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Sophia Nagy | set Zofia Sykut | +1.7 |
| 35 | 20-15 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Attack err | Keira Mullen | +1.5 | |
| 36 | 21-15 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Attack err | Keira Mullen | +0.9 | |
| 37 | 21-16 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | KK Green | set Keira Mullen | +0.4 |
| 38 | 22-16 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +0.6 |
| 39 | 22-17 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Lacey Murphy | set Drew Flanagan | +0.3 |
| 40 | 23-17 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Natalie Carlin | +0.5 |
| 41 | 23-18 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Drew Flanagan | +0.2 |
| 42 | 24-18 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Attack err | Isa Glover | +0.4 | |
| 43 | 25-18 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | Emma Sorensen | blk Harlan Wyche, Zofia Sykut | +0.1 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Lacey Murphy | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.4 |
| 2 | 1-1 | HOLYCR | FAIR×4 | Serve err | HOLYCR server | +1.8 | |
| 3 | 2-1 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +2.1 |
| 4 | 3-1 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +1.9 |
| 5 | 4-1 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Attack err | Emma Sorensen | blk Sophia Nagy, Mamie Krubally | +1.7 |
| 6 | 4-2 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | FAIR server | +1.4 | |
| 7 | 5-2 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +1.4 |
| 8 | 5-3 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | FAIR server | +1.4 | |
| 9 | 6-3 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +1.4 |
| 10 | 7-3 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +1.5 |
| 11 | 7-4 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Drew Flanagan | +1.2 |
| 12 | 7-5 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Aislin Oldach | blk Lacey Murphy, Kat Teepe | +1.8 |
| 13 | 8-5 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Attack err | Lacey Murphy | blk Harlan Wyche, Aislin Oldach | +1.5 |
| 14 | 9-5 | FAIR | FAIR | Ace | FAIR server | aced Lacey Murphy | +1.6 |
| 15 | 9-6 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | FAIR server | +1.2 | |
| 16 | 10-6 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Zofia Sykut | set Natalie Carlin | +1.3 |
| 17 | 10-7 | FAIR | HOLYCR×4 | Serve err | FAIR server | +1.3 | |
| 18 | 10-8 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Kill | Sarahya College | +2.0 | |
| 19 | 10-9 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.4 |
| 20 | 10-10 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.9 |
| 21 | 11-10 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Attack err | KK Green | +2.3 | |
| 22 | 11-11 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.5 |
| 23 | 12-11 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +2.4 |
| 24 | 12-12 | FAIR | HOLYCR×3 | Kill | Sarahya College | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.6 |
| 25 | 12-13 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×3 | Attack err | Aislin Oldach | +3.7 | |
| 26 | 12-14 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×3 | Ace | HOLYCR server | aced Aislin Oldach | +4.1 |
| 27 | 13-14 | HOLYCR | FAIR×4 | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +2.8 |
| 28 | 14-14 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Attack err | Kat Teepe | blk Harlan Wyche | +3.7 |
| 29 | 15-14 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Attack err | Emma Sorensen | blk Harlan Wyche, Mamie Krubally | +3.5 |
| 30 | 16-14 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Attack err | Drew Flanagan | +3.2 | |
| 31 | 16-15 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | KK Green | set Drew Flanagan | +2.5 |
| 32 | 17-15 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Feed gap | Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known. | +2.6 | |
| 33 | 18-15 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | Kat Teepe | +2.8 | |
| 34 | 18-16 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Drew Flanagan | +2.0 |
| 35 | 19-16 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +2.3 |
| 36 | 20-16 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Zofia Sykut | +2.2 | |
| 37 | 20-17 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | FAIR server | +1.3 | |
| 38 | 21-17 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +1.7 |
| 39 | 21-18 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | KK Green | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.2 |
| 40 | 22-18 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Natalie Carlin | +1.7 |
| 41 | 22-19 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Sophia Nagy | blk Emma Sorensen | +1.1 |
| 42 | 22-20 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Sarahya College | set Zofia Sykut | +2.4 |
| 43 | 23-20 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Attack err | Emma Sorensen | +2.8 | |
| 44 | 23-21 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Elizabeth Hall | +1.8 |
| 45 | 24-21 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +2.9 |
| 46 | 25-21 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Natalie Carlin | +1.3 |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Harlan Wyche | blk Lacey Murphy, Sarahya College | +1.5 |
| 2 | 0-2 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Lacey Murphy | set Zofia Sykut | +2.0 |
| 3 | 1-2 | HOLYCR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +1.4 |
| 4 | 2-2 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Attack err | Sarahya College | +1.8 | |
| 5 | 3-2 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Attack err | Lacey Murphy | +1.7 | |
| 6 | 3-3 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | FAIR server | +1.4 | |
| 7 | 4-3 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +1.3 |
| 8 | 4-4 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.5 |
| 9 | 5-4 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +1.4 |
| 10 | 6-4 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +1.6 |
| 11 | 6-5 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Drew Flanagan | +1.3 |
| 12 | 6-6 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Ace | HOLYCR server | aced Aislin Oldach | +1.9 |
| 13 | 7-6 | HOLYCR | FAIR×3 | Attack err | Kat Teepe | +1.5 | |
| 14 | 8-6 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +1.7 |
| 15 | 9-6 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Katelyn Cook | set Zofia Sykut | +1.5 |
| 16 | 9-7 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | FAIR server | +1.2 | |
| 17 | 9-8 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Zofia Sykut | +1.8 |
| 18 | 10-8 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Zofia Sykut | set Daniella Suarez | +1.4 |
| 19 | 11-8 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | Kat Teepe | blk Emma Bortolotti, Harlan Wyche | +1.6 |
| 20 | 11-9 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Elizabeth Hall | set Georgia Murphy | +1.2 |
| 21 | 12-9 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Attack err | Georgia Murphy | blk Zofia Sykut, Harlan Wyche | +1.3 |
| 22 | 12-10 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Lacey Murphy | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.3 |
| 23 | 12-11 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Emma Bortolotti | blk Lacey Murphy, Emma Sorensen | +2.0 |
| 24 | 13-11 | HOLYCR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Natalie Carlin | +1.6 |
| 25 | 14-11 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Attack err | Emma Sorensen | blk Harlan Wyche, Mamie Krubally | +1.8 |
| 26 | 15-11 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +1.4 |
| 27 | 15-12 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | FAIR server | +1.0 | |
| 28 | 16-12 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Attack err | Emma Sorensen | blk Harlan Wyche, Mamie Krubally | +1.2 |
| 29 | 16-13 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Sarahya College | set Elizabeth Hall | +1.0 |
| 30 | 17-13 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Natalie Carlin | +1.2 |
| 31 | 17-14 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Nora Benjamins | +1.0 |
| 32 | 18-14 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Attack err | Nora Benjamins | +1.2 | |
| 33 | 19-14 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | Georgia Murphy | +1.1 | |
| 34 | 19-15 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Sophia Nagy | +0.6 | |
| 35 | 20-15 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +0.8 |
| 36 | 20-16 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Drew Flanagan | +0.6 |
| 37 | 21-16 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +0.8 |
| 38 | 21-17 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Mamie Krubally | +0.5 | |
| 39 | 22-17 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +0.8 |
| 40 | 23-17 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | Emma Sorensen | +0.5 | |
| 41 | 23-18 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Harlan Wyche | +0.1 | |
| 42 | 23-19 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Mamie Krubally | +0.4 | |
| 43 | 24-19 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +0.5 |
| 44 | 24-20 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +0.2 |
| 45 | 24-21 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Ace | HOLYCR server | aced Aislin Oldach | +0.5 |
| 46 | 25-21 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Serve err | HOLYCR server | +0.8 | |
Score shown after each rally, Fairfield first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.