Fairfield def. Holy Cross 3–1
Fairfield beat Holy Cross 3-1 (22-25, 25-18, 25-21, 25-21) on Sat, Sep 5, 2026 at a neutral site. Fairfield's Aislin Oldach led with 14 kills, and Natalie Carlin added 26 digs.
Data through · final Sep 5
| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAIR | 22 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 3 |
| HOLYCR | 25 | 18 | 21 | 21 | 1 |
Win probability
Biggest swing: 6.7% to Holy Cross — set 1, FAIR 22-24 HOLYCR. Holy Cross ace on Aislin Oldach. HOLYCR win probability 28% → 35%.
Pre-match
Season fit · includes this match
Fairfield wins
Holy Cross wins
- FAIR break %
- 46.6% vs this opp
- HOLYCR break %
- 40.0% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Top plays
Largest win-probability swings
- 01Holy CrossAce+6.7%
Holy Cross ace on Aislin Oldach
Set 1 · FAIR 22-24 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 28% → 35%
- 02Lacey Murphy&Keira MullenBlock+6.3%
Katelyn Cook stuffed by Lacey Murphy & Keira Mullen
Set 1 · FAIR 22-23 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 22% → 28%
- 03Lacey MurphyKill+4.7%
Kill by Lacey Murphy (set by Drew Flanagan)
Set 1 · FAIR 22-22 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 17% → 22%
- 04Holy CrossAce+4.4%
Holy Cross ace on Aislin Oldach
Set 3 · FAIR 12-14 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 31% → 35%
- 05Holy CrossAce+4.4%
Holy Cross ace on Aislin Oldach
Set 1 · FAIR 22-25 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 35% → 39%
- 06
- 07Aislin OldachAttack error+4.1%
Attack error by Aislin Oldach
Set 3 · FAIR 12-13 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 27% → 31%
- 08Harlan Wyche&Mamie KruballyBlock+4.0%
Emma Sorensen stuffed by Harlan Wyche & Mamie Krubally
Set 3 · FAIR 15-14 HOLYCR · FAIR 72% → 76%
Box score
Official NCAA box
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 14 | 2 | 34 | .353 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17 | |
| 4 | 11 | 4 | 21 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5.5 | 16.5 | |
| 4 | 12 | 3 | 24 | .375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 14 | |
| 4 | 5 | 0 | 11 | .455 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -.154 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | -.067 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |
| 4 | 9 | 2 | 29 | .241 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 10 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 57 | 20 | 147 | .252 | 55 | 3 | 12 | 73 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 97 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 13 | 8 | 61 | .082 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.5 | 16.5 | |
| 4 | 7 | 3 | 14 | .286 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 11 | |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | .077 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 4.5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -.500 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 18 | .111 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -.154 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 4.5 | |
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 17 | .118 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 1 | 11 | .273 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 4.5 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -.333 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -.333 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 45 | 33 | 162 | .074 | 38 | 7 | 4 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 85 |
Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Momentum
Point differential by rally
Set 1
22-25
Set 2
25-18
Set 3
25-21
Set 4
25-21
Bars above the line = Holy Cross leads, below = Fairfield leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Rotations
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Fairfield
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50%8/16 | 36%4/11 |
| 2 | 80%8/10 | 47%7/15 |
| 3 | 88%7/8 | 50%7/14 |
| 4 | 86%6/7 | 33%3/9 |
| 5 | 55%6/11 | 45%5/11 |
| 6 | 42%5/12 | 50%6/12 |
| All | 63%40/64 | 44%32/72 |
Holy Cross
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67%8/12 | 50%6/12 |
| 2 | 44%8/18 | 27%3/11 |
| 3 | 64%7/11 | 20%2/10 |
| 4 | 67%6/9 | 13%1/8 |
| 5 | 46%6/13 | 40%4/10 |
| 6 | 56%5/9 | 62%8/13 |
| All | 56%40/72 | 38%24/64 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
Rally log
182 rallies
| # | FAIR-HOLYCR | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×5 | Kill | Keira Mullen | set Drew Flanagan | +1.8 |
| 2 | 0-2 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×5 | Kill | Isa Glover | set Drew Flanagan | +1.9 |
| 3 | 0-3 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×5 | Ace | Holy Cross | aced Natalie Carlin | +2.0 |
| 4 | 0-4 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×5 | Kill | Isa Glover | +2.1 | |
| 5 | 0-5 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×5 | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Alana Whitwell | +2.0 |
| 6 | 1-5 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Sophia Nagy | set Zofia Sykut | +1.3 |
| 7 | 2-5 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +1.8 |
| 8 | 2-6 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Drew Flanagan | +1.7 |
| 9 | 3-6 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +1.4 |
| 10 | 4-6 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | Isa Glover | +2.0 | |
| 11 | 4-7 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Isa Glover | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.7 |
| 12 | 5-7 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Blocked | KK Green | blk Emma Bortolotti | +1.5 |
| 13 | 6-7 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Katelyn Cook | set Noella Migliuri | +2.1 |
| 14 | 6-8 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.8 |
| 15 | 7-8 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Noella Migliuri | +1.6 |
| 16 | 8-8 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | KK Green | +2.1 | |
| 17 | 8-9 | FAIR | HOLYCR×3 | Serve err | Fairfield | +1.8 | |
| 18 | 8-10 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×3 | Attack err | Sophia Nagy | +2.4 | |
| 19 | 8-11 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×3 | Kill | KK Green | set Drew Flanagan | +2.5 |
| 20 | 9-11 | HOLYCR | FAIR×4 | Blocked | Keira Mullen | blk Sophia Nagy, Katelyn Cook | +1.7 |
| 21 | 10-11 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Ace | Fairfield | aced Emma Sorensen | +2.3 |
| 22 | 11-11 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Attack err | Keira Mullen | +2.3 | |
| 23 | 12-11 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Natalie Carlin | +2.3 |
| 24 | 12-12 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Katelyn Cook | +1.8 | |
| 25 | 12-13 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Keira Mullen | set Drew Flanagan | +2.6 |
| 26 | 13-13 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Sophia Nagy | set Zofia Sykut | +1.9 |
| 27 | 14-13 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +2.5 |
| 28 | 14-14 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set KK Green | +2.0 |
| 29 | 15-14 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Serve err | Holy Cross | +1.9 | |
| 30 | 15-15 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Elizabeth Hall | +2.1 |
| 31 | 16-15 | HOLYCR | FAIR×4 | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +2.1 |
| 32 | 17-15 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Blocked | Emma Sorensen | blk Harlan Wyche, Emma Bortolotti | +2.5 |
| 33 | 18-15 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Natalie Carlin | +2.1 |
| 34 | 19-15 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Blocked | Isa Glover | blk Aislin Oldach | +1.6 |
| 35 | 19-16 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | Fairfield | +1.0 | |
| 36 | 20-16 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Noella Migliuri | +1.2 |
| 37 | 20-17 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Emma Bortolotti | +0.9 | |
| 38 | 21-17 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Noella Migliuri | +1.2 |
| 39 | 21-18 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Blocked | Katelyn Cook | blk Lacey Murphy, Kat Teepe | +0.9 |
| 40 | 21-19 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Bad set | Noella Migliuri | +1.8 | |
| 41 | 22-19 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Attack err | KK Green | +1.9 | |
| 42 | 22-20 | FAIR | HOLYCR×6 | Kill | KK Green | set Drew Flanagan | +1.4 |
| 43 | 22-21 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×6 | Attack err | Sophia Nagy | +3.0 | |
| 44 | 22-22 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×6 | Kill | Lacey Murphy | set Drew Flanagan | +4.7 |
| 45 | 22-23 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×6 | Blocked | Katelyn Cook | blk Lacey Murphy, Keira Mullen | +6.3 |
| 46 | 22-24 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×6 | Ace | Holy Cross | aced Aislin Oldach | +6.7 |
| 47 | 22-25 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×6 | Ace | Holy Cross | aced Aislin Oldach | +4.4 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +2.4 |
| 2 | 2-0 | FAIR | FAIR | Ace | Fairfield | aced Emma Sorensen | +2.3 |
| 3 | 2-1 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | Fairfield | +1.8 | |
| 4 | 3-1 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +1.7 |
| 5 | 4-1 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +2.1 |
| 6 | 4-2 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Blocked | Harlan Wyche | blk Isa Glover, Emma Sorensen | +1.6 |
| 7 | 4-3 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Ace | Holy Cross | aced Natalie Carlin | +2.4 |
| 8 | 5-3 | HOLYCR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +1.8 |
| 9 | 6-3 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Katelyn Cook | set Zofia Sykut | +2.2 |
| 10 | 7-3 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Attack err | Keira Mullen | +1.9 | |
| 11 | 7-4 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Katelyn Cook | +1.4 | |
| 12 | 8-4 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +1.4 |
| 13 | 8-5 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | Fairfield | +1.4 | |
| 14 | 9-5 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Zofia Sykut | set Aislin Oldach | +1.5 |
| 15 | 9-6 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Lacey Murphy | set Keira Mullen | +1.4 |
| 16 | 10-6 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Serve err | Holy Cross | +1.5 | |
| 17 | 10-7 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | KK Green | set Elizabeth Hall | +1.4 |
| 18 | 10-8 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Blocked | Mamie Krubally | blk Emma Sorensen, Lacey Murphy | +2.3 |
| 19 | 11-8 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +1.9 |
| 20 | 12-8 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Natalie Carlin | +2.1 |
| 21 | 12-9 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Lacey Murphy | set Drew Flanagan | +1.5 |
| 22 | 12-10 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Harlan Wyche | +2.4 | |
| 23 | 13-10 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +2.0 |
| 24 | 13-11 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Keira Mullen | set Drew Flanagan | +1.9 |
| 25 | 14-11 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +2.1 |
| 26 | 14-12 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Isa Glover | set Noella Migliuri | +2.0 |
| 27 | 15-12 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Attack err | KK Green | +2.2 | |
| 28 | 16-12 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +2.3 |
| 29 | 16-13 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | KK Green | set Keira Mullen | +1.5 |
| 30 | 17-13 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Zofia Sykut | set Natalie Carlin | +1.8 |
| 31 | 18-13 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | Lacey Murphy | +1.7 | |
| 32 | 18-14 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Keira Mullen | +1.0 |
| 33 | 18-15 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Blocked | Sophia Nagy | blk Lacey Murphy | +1.9 |
| 34 | 19-15 | HOLYCR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Sophia Nagy | set Zofia Sykut | +1.9 |
| 35 | 20-15 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Attack err | Keira Mullen | +1.7 | |
| 36 | 21-15 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Attack err | Keira Mullen | +1.0 | |
| 37 | 21-16 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | KK Green | set Keira Mullen | +0.4 |
| 38 | 22-16 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +0.7 |
| 39 | 22-17 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Lacey Murphy | set Drew Flanagan | +0.3 |
| 40 | 23-17 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Natalie Carlin | +0.5 |
| 41 | 23-18 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Drew Flanagan | +0.2 |
| 42 | 24-18 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Attack err | Isa Glover | +0.4 | |
| 43 | 25-18 | FAIR | FAIR | Blocked | Emma Sorensen | blk Harlan Wyche, Zofia Sykut | +0.1 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Lacey Murphy | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.8 |
| 2 | 1-1 | HOLYCR | FAIR×4 | Serve err | Holy Cross | +2.0 | |
| 3 | 2-1 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +2.5 |
| 4 | 3-1 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +2.3 |
| 5 | 4-1 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Blocked | Emma Sorensen | blk Sophia Nagy, Mamie Krubally | +2.1 |
| 6 | 4-2 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | Fairfield | +1.6 | |
| 7 | 5-2 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +1.6 |
| 8 | 5-3 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | Fairfield | +1.6 | |
| 9 | 6-3 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +1.6 |
| 10 | 7-3 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +1.9 |
| 11 | 7-4 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Drew Flanagan | +1.4 |
| 12 | 7-5 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Blocked | Aislin Oldach | blk Lacey Murphy, Kat Teepe | +2.2 |
| 13 | 8-5 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Blocked | Lacey Murphy | blk Harlan Wyche, Aislin Oldach | +1.7 |
| 14 | 9-5 | FAIR | FAIR | Ace | Fairfield | aced Lacey Murphy | +2.0 |
| 15 | 9-6 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | Fairfield | +1.4 | |
| 16 | 10-6 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Zofia Sykut | set Natalie Carlin | +1.5 |
| 17 | 10-7 | FAIR | HOLYCR×4 | Serve err | Fairfield | +1.4 | |
| 18 | 10-8 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Kill | Sarahya College | +2.3 | |
| 19 | 10-9 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.8 |
| 20 | 10-10 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +3.3 |
| 21 | 11-10 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Attack err | KK Green | +2.5 | |
| 22 | 11-11 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.7 |
| 23 | 12-11 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +2.6 |
| 24 | 12-12 | FAIR | HOLYCR×3 | Kill | Sarahya College | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.8 |
| 25 | 12-13 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×3 | Attack err | Aislin Oldach | +4.1 | |
| 26 | 12-14 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×3 | Ace | Holy Cross | aced Aislin Oldach | +4.4 |
| 27 | 13-14 | HOLYCR | FAIR×4 | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +3.0 |
| 28 | 14-14 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Blocked | Kat Teepe | blk Harlan Wyche | +4.1 |
| 29 | 15-14 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Blocked | Emma Sorensen | blk Harlan Wyche, Mamie Krubally | +4.0 |
| 30 | 16-14 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Attack err | Drew Flanagan | +3.7 | |
| 31 | 16-15 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | KK Green | set Drew Flanagan | +2.7 |
| 32 | 17-15 | FAIR | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +2.9 | |||
| 33 | 18-15 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | Kat Teepe | +3.3 | |
| 34 | 18-16 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Drew Flanagan | +2.2 |
| 35 | 19-16 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +2.6 |
| 36 | 20-16 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Zofia Sykut | +2.5 | |
| 37 | 20-17 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | Fairfield | +1.4 | |
| 38 | 21-17 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +1.9 |
| 39 | 21-18 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | KK Green | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.3 |
| 40 | 22-18 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Natalie Carlin | +1.9 |
| 41 | 22-19 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Blocked | Sophia Nagy | blk Emma Sorensen | +1.2 |
| 42 | 22-20 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Sarahya College | set Zofia Sykut | +2.7 |
| 43 | 23-20 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Attack err | Emma Sorensen | +3.1 | |
| 44 | 23-21 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Elizabeth Hall | +1.9 |
| 45 | 24-21 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +3.1 |
| 46 | 25-21 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Natalie Carlin | +1.5 |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Blocked | Harlan Wyche | blk Lacey Murphy, Sarahya College | +1.7 |
| 2 | 0-2 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Lacey Murphy | set Zofia Sykut | +2.3 |
| 3 | 1-2 | HOLYCR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +1.6 |
| 4 | 2-2 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Attack err | Sarahya College | +2.1 | |
| 5 | 3-2 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Attack err | Lacey Murphy | +2.0 | |
| 6 | 3-3 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | Fairfield | +1.6 | |
| 7 | 4-3 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +1.6 |
| 8 | 4-4 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.7 |
| 9 | 5-4 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +1.6 |
| 10 | 6-4 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +2.0 |
| 11 | 6-5 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Drew Flanagan | +1.5 |
| 12 | 6-6 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Ace | Holy Cross | aced Aislin Oldach | +2.3 |
| 13 | 7-6 | HOLYCR | FAIR×3 | Attack err | Kat Teepe | +1.7 | |
| 14 | 8-6 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +2.1 |
| 15 | 9-6 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Katelyn Cook | set Zofia Sykut | +1.9 |
| 16 | 9-7 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | Fairfield | +1.4 | |
| 17 | 9-8 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Zofia Sykut | +2.2 |
| 18 | 10-8 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Zofia Sykut | set Daniella Suarez | +1.7 |
| 19 | 11-8 | FAIR | FAIR | Blocked | Kat Teepe | blk Emma Bortolotti, Harlan Wyche | +2.0 |
| 20 | 11-9 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Elizabeth Hall | set Georgia Murphy | +1.5 |
| 21 | 12-9 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Blocked | Georgia Murphy | blk Zofia Sykut, Harlan Wyche | +1.5 |
| 22 | 12-10 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Lacey Murphy | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.5 |
| 23 | 12-11 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Blocked | Emma Bortolotti | blk Lacey Murphy, Emma Sorensen | +2.4 |
| 24 | 13-11 | HOLYCR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Natalie Carlin | +1.9 |
| 25 | 14-11 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Blocked | Emma Sorensen | blk Harlan Wyche, Mamie Krubally | +2.2 |
| 26 | 15-11 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +1.8 |
| 27 | 15-12 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Serve err | Fairfield | +1.2 | |
| 28 | 16-12 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Blocked | Emma Sorensen | blk Harlan Wyche, Mamie Krubally | +1.4 |
| 29 | 16-13 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Sarahya College | set Elizabeth Hall | +1.2 |
| 30 | 17-13 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Natalie Carlin | +1.4 |
| 31 | 17-14 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Nora Benjamins | +1.2 |
| 32 | 18-14 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Attack err | Nora Benjamins | +1.4 | |
| 33 | 19-14 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | Georgia Murphy | +1.4 | |
| 34 | 19-15 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Sophia Nagy | +0.7 | |
| 35 | 20-15 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +1.0 |
| 36 | 20-16 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Drew Flanagan | +0.7 |
| 37 | 21-16 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +1.0 |
| 38 | 21-17 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Mamie Krubally | +0.6 | |
| 39 | 22-17 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +0.9 |
| 40 | 23-17 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | Emma Sorensen | +0.6 | |
| 41 | 23-18 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Harlan Wyche | +0.2 | |
| 42 | 23-19 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Mamie Krubally | +0.4 | |
| 43 | 24-19 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +0.6 |
| 44 | 24-20 | FAIR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +0.2 |
| 45 | 24-21 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Ace | Holy Cross | aced Aislin Oldach | +0.5 |
| 46 | 25-21 | HOLYCR | FAIR | Serve err | Holy Cross | +0.9 | |
Score shown after each rally, Fairfield first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).