Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 5, 2026 · Neutral site

Fairfield def. Holy Cross 3–1

Fairfield beat Holy Cross 3-1 (22-25, 25-18, 25-21, 25-21) on Sat, Sep 5, 2026 at a neutral site. Fairfield's Aislin Oldach led with 14 kills, and Natalie Carlin added 26 digs.

Data through · final Sep 5

Set1234Sets
FAIR222525253
HOLYCR251821211

Win probability

Holy Cross above 50 · Fairfield below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+6.7% HOLYCRrally 182 · set 4

Biggest swing: 6.7% to Holy Cross — set 1, FAIR 22-24 HOLYCR. Holy Cross ace on Aislin Oldach. HOLYCR win probability 28% → 35%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

FAIR 80.8%19.2% HOLYCR

Fairfield wins

3-0
32.3%
3-1
30.4%
3-2
18.0%

Holy Cross wins

3-0
3.1%
3-1
6.4%
3-2
9.8%
FAIR break %
46.6% vs this opp
HOLYCR break %
40.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Holy CrossAce+6.7%

    Holy Cross ace on Aislin Oldach

    Set 1 · FAIR 22-24 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 28% → 35%

  2. 02

    Katelyn Cook stuffed by Lacey Murphy & Keira Mullen

    Set 1 · FAIR 22-23 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 22% → 28%

  3. 03
    Lacey MurphyKill+4.7%

    Kill by Lacey Murphy (set by Drew Flanagan)

    Set 1 · FAIR 22-22 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 17% → 22%

  4. 04
    Holy CrossAce+4.4%

    Holy Cross ace on Aislin Oldach

    Set 3 · FAIR 12-14 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 31% → 35%

  5. 05
    Holy CrossAce+4.4%

    Holy Cross ace on Aislin Oldach

    Set 1 · FAIR 22-25 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 35% → 39%

  6. 06
    Harlan WycheBlock+4.1%

    Kat Teepe stuffed by Harlan Wyche

    Set 3 · FAIR 14-14 HOLYCR · FAIR 68% → 72%

  7. 07
    Aislin OldachAttack error+4.1%

    Attack error by Aislin Oldach

    Set 3 · FAIR 12-13 HOLYCR · HOLYCR 27% → 31%

  8. 08

    Emma Sorensen stuffed by Harlan Wyche & Mamie Krubally

    Set 3 · FAIR 15-14 HOLYCR · FAIR 72% → 76%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414234.35311210512217
411421.33300320195.516.5
412324.3750000004214
45011.45539101000217
43513-.154000100214
43415-.06700270010.53.5
49229.2410026012211
4000–10122620001
3000–100600000
3000–401500000
2000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5720147.252553127373221497
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413861.082010102132.516.5
47314.2860000116411
44313.07700010010.54.5
4012-.5001622600002
37518.1111201200009
23513-.15441010010.54.5
46417.118000300217
41011.000300900001
4000–112200001
34111.27300010010.54.5
3001.0001100600000
2026-.333100600000
1013-.333100000000
1002.000000000000
Team totals4533162.0743874573214985

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 FAIR · HOLYCR 6

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 4 FAIRHOLYCR 6

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 3 FAIRHOLYCR 2

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 4 FAIRHOLYCR 4

Set 4

25-21

Longest run 3 FAIRHOLYCR 2

Bars above the line = Holy Cross leads, below = Fairfield leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Fairfield

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%8/16
36%4/11
2
80%8/10
47%7/15
3
88%7/8
50%7/14
4
86%6/7
33%3/9
5
55%6/11
45%5/11
6
42%5/12
50%6/12
All
63%40/64
44%32/72

Holy Cross

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%8/12
50%6/12
2
44%8/18
27%3/11
3
64%7/11
20%2/10
4
67%6/9
13%1/8
5
46%6/13
40%4/10
6
56%5/9
62%8/13
All
56%40/72
38%24/64

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

182 rallies

#FAIR-HOLYCRSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1HOLYCRHOLYCR×5KillKeira Mullenset Drew Flanagan+1.8
20-2HOLYCRHOLYCR×5KillIsa Gloverset Drew Flanagan+1.9
30-3HOLYCRHOLYCR×5AceHoly Crossaced Natalie Carlin+2.0
40-4HOLYCRHOLYCR×5KillIsa Glover+2.1
50-5HOLYCRHOLYCR×5KillEmma Sorensenset Alana Whitwell+2.0
61-5HOLYCRFAIRKillSophia Nagyset Zofia Sykut+1.3
72-5FAIRFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+1.8
82-6FAIRHOLYCRKillEmma Sorensenset Drew Flanagan+1.7
93-6HOLYCRFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+1.4
104-6FAIRFAIRAttack errIsa Glover+2.0
114-7FAIRHOLYCRKillIsa Gloverset Tuana Ozarpaci+1.7
125-7HOLYCRFAIRBlockedKK Greenblk Emma Bortolotti+1.5
136-7FAIRFAIRKillKatelyn Cookset Noella Migliuri+2.1
146-8FAIRHOLYCRKillKat Teepeset Tuana Ozarpaci+1.8
157-8HOLYCRFAIRKillEmma Bortolottiset Noella Migliuri+1.6
168-8FAIRFAIRAttack errKK Green+2.1
178-9FAIRHOLYCR×3Serve errFairfield+1.8
188-10HOLYCRHOLYCR×3Attack errSophia Nagy+2.4
198-11HOLYCRHOLYCR×3KillKK Greenset Drew Flanagan+2.5
209-11HOLYCRFAIR×4BlockedKeira Mullenblk Sophia Nagy, Katelyn Cook+1.7
2110-11FAIRFAIR×4AceFairfieldaced Emma Sorensen+2.3
2211-11FAIRFAIR×4Attack errKeira Mullen+2.3
2312-11FAIRFAIR×4KillMamie Kruballyset Natalie Carlin+2.3
2412-12FAIRHOLYCRAttack errKatelyn Cook+1.8
2512-13HOLYCRHOLYCRKillKeira Mullenset Drew Flanagan+2.6
2613-13HOLYCRFAIRKillSophia Nagyset Zofia Sykut+1.9
2714-13FAIRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+2.5
2814-14FAIRHOLYCRKillEmma Sorensenset KK Green+2.0
2915-14HOLYCRFAIRServe errHoly Cross+1.9
3015-15FAIRHOLYCRKillEmma Sorensenset Elizabeth Hall+2.1
3116-15HOLYCRFAIR×4KillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+2.1
3217-15FAIRFAIR×4BlockedEmma Sorensenblk Harlan Wyche, Emma Bortolotti+2.5
3318-15FAIRFAIR×4KillEmma Bortolottiset Natalie Carlin+2.1
3419-15FAIRFAIR×4BlockedIsa Gloverblk Aislin Oldach+1.6
3519-16FAIRHOLYCRServe errFairfield+1.0
3620-16HOLYCRFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Noella Migliuri+1.2
3720-17FAIRHOLYCRAttack errEmma Bortolotti+0.9
3821-17HOLYCRFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Noella Migliuri+1.2
3921-18FAIRHOLYCRBlockedKatelyn Cookblk Lacey Murphy, Kat Teepe+0.9
4021-19HOLYCRHOLYCRBad setNoella Migliuri+1.8
4122-19HOLYCRFAIRAttack errKK Green+1.9
4222-20FAIRHOLYCR×6KillKK Greenset Drew Flanagan+1.4
4322-21HOLYCRHOLYCR×6Attack errSophia Nagy+3.0
4422-22HOLYCRHOLYCR×6KillLacey Murphyset Drew Flanagan+4.7
4522-23HOLYCRHOLYCR×6BlockedKatelyn Cookblk Lacey Murphy, Keira Mullen+6.3
4622-24HOLYCRHOLYCR×6AceHoly Crossaced Aislin Oldach+6.7
4722-25HOLYCRHOLYCR×6AceHoly Crossaced Aislin Oldach+4.4
Set 2
11-0FAIRFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+2.4
22-0FAIRFAIRAceFairfieldaced Emma Sorensen+2.3
32-1FAIRHOLYCRServe errFairfield+1.8
43-1HOLYCRFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+1.7
54-1FAIRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+2.1
64-2FAIRHOLYCRBlockedHarlan Wycheblk Isa Glover, Emma Sorensen+1.6
74-3HOLYCRHOLYCRAceHoly Crossaced Natalie Carlin+2.4
85-3HOLYCRFAIR×3KillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+1.8
96-3FAIRFAIR×3KillKatelyn Cookset Zofia Sykut+2.2
107-3FAIRFAIR×3Attack errKeira Mullen+1.9
117-4FAIRHOLYCRAttack errKatelyn Cook+1.4
128-4HOLYCRFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+1.4
138-5FAIRHOLYCRServe errFairfield+1.4
149-5HOLYCRFAIRKillZofia Sykutset Aislin Oldach+1.5
159-6FAIRHOLYCRKillLacey Murphyset Keira Mullen+1.4
1610-6HOLYCRFAIRServe errHoly Cross+1.5
1710-7FAIRHOLYCRKillKK Greenset Elizabeth Hall+1.4
1810-8HOLYCRHOLYCRBlockedMamie Kruballyblk Emma Sorensen, Lacey Murphy+2.3
1911-8HOLYCRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+1.9
2012-8FAIRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Natalie Carlin+2.1
2112-9FAIRHOLYCRKillLacey Murphyset Drew Flanagan+1.5
2212-10HOLYCRHOLYCRAttack errHarlan Wyche+2.4
2313-10HOLYCRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+2.0
2413-11FAIRHOLYCRKillKeira Mullenset Drew Flanagan+1.9
2514-11HOLYCRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+2.1
2614-12FAIRHOLYCRKillIsa Gloverset Noella Migliuri+2.0
2715-12HOLYCRFAIRAttack errKK Green+2.2
2816-12FAIRFAIRKillEmma Bortolottiset Zofia Sykut+2.3
2916-13FAIRHOLYCRKillKK Greenset Keira Mullen+1.5
3017-13HOLYCRFAIRKillZofia Sykutset Natalie Carlin+1.8
3118-13FAIRFAIRAttack errLacey Murphy+1.7
3218-14FAIRHOLYCRKillKat Teepeset Keira Mullen+1.0
3318-15HOLYCRHOLYCRBlockedSophia Nagyblk Lacey Murphy+1.9
3419-15HOLYCRFAIR×3KillSophia Nagyset Zofia Sykut+1.9
3520-15FAIRFAIR×3Attack errKeira Mullen+1.7
3621-15FAIRFAIR×3Attack errKeira Mullen+1.0
3721-16FAIRHOLYCRKillKK Greenset Keira Mullen+0.4
3822-16HOLYCRFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.7
3922-17FAIRHOLYCRKillLacey Murphyset Drew Flanagan+0.3
4023-17HOLYCRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Natalie Carlin+0.5
4123-18FAIRHOLYCRKillEmma Sorensenset Drew Flanagan+0.2
4224-18HOLYCRFAIRAttack errIsa Glover+0.4
4325-18FAIRFAIRBlockedEmma Sorensenblk Harlan Wyche, Zofia Sykut+0.1
Set 3
10-1HOLYCRHOLYCRKillLacey Murphyset Tuana Ozarpaci+2.8
21-1HOLYCRFAIR×4Serve errHoly Cross+2.0
32-1FAIRFAIR×4KillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+2.5
43-1FAIRFAIR×4KillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+2.3
54-1FAIRFAIR×4BlockedEmma Sorensenblk Sophia Nagy, Mamie Krubally+2.1
64-2FAIRHOLYCRServe errFairfield+1.6
75-2HOLYCRFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+1.6
85-3FAIRHOLYCRServe errFairfield+1.6
96-3HOLYCRFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+1.6
107-3FAIRFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+1.9
117-4FAIRHOLYCRKillKat Teepeset Drew Flanagan+1.4
127-5HOLYCRHOLYCRBlockedAislin Oldachblk Lacey Murphy, Kat Teepe+2.2
138-5HOLYCRFAIRBlockedLacey Murphyblk Harlan Wyche, Aislin Oldach+1.7
149-5FAIRFAIRAceFairfieldaced Lacey Murphy+2.0
159-6FAIRHOLYCRServe errFairfield+1.4
1610-6HOLYCRFAIRKillZofia Sykutset Natalie Carlin+1.5
1710-7FAIRHOLYCR×4Serve errFairfield+1.4
1810-8HOLYCRHOLYCR×4KillSarahya College+2.3
1910-9HOLYCRHOLYCR×4KillEmma Sorensenset Tuana Ozarpaci+2.8
2010-10HOLYCRHOLYCR×4KillEmma Sorensenset Tuana Ozarpaci+3.3
2111-10HOLYCRFAIRAttack errKK Green+2.5
2211-11FAIRHOLYCRKillEmma Sorensenset Tuana Ozarpaci+2.7
2312-11HOLYCRFAIRKillEmma Bortolottiset Zofia Sykut+2.6
2412-12FAIRHOLYCR×3KillSarahya Collegeset Tuana Ozarpaci+2.8
2512-13HOLYCRHOLYCR×3Attack errAislin Oldach+4.1
2612-14HOLYCRHOLYCR×3AceHoly Crossaced Aislin Oldach+4.4
2713-14HOLYCRFAIR×4KillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+3.0
2814-14FAIRFAIR×4BlockedKat Teepeblk Harlan Wyche+4.1
2915-14FAIRFAIR×4BlockedEmma Sorensenblk Harlan Wyche, Mamie Krubally+4.0
3016-14FAIRFAIR×4Attack errDrew Flanagan+3.7
3116-15FAIRHOLYCRKillKK Greenset Drew Flanagan+2.7
3217-15FAIR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.9
3318-15FAIRFAIRAttack errKat Teepe+3.3
3418-16FAIRHOLYCRKillKat Teepeset Drew Flanagan+2.2
3519-16HOLYCRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+2.6
3620-16FAIRFAIRKillZofia Sykut+2.5
3720-17FAIRHOLYCRServe errFairfield+1.4
3821-17HOLYCRFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+1.9
3921-18FAIRHOLYCRKillKK Greenset Tuana Ozarpaci+1.3
4022-18HOLYCRFAIRKillEmma Bortolottiset Natalie Carlin+1.9
4122-19FAIRHOLYCRBlockedSophia Nagyblk Emma Sorensen+1.2
4222-20HOLYCRHOLYCRKillSarahya Collegeset Zofia Sykut+2.7
4323-20HOLYCRFAIRAttack errEmma Sorensen+3.1
4423-21FAIRHOLYCRKillEmma Sorensenset Elizabeth Hall+1.9
4524-21HOLYCRFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+3.1
4625-21FAIRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Natalie Carlin+1.5
Set 4
10-1FAIRHOLYCRBlockedHarlan Wycheblk Lacey Murphy, Sarahya College+1.7
20-2HOLYCRHOLYCRKillLacey Murphyset Zofia Sykut+2.3
31-2HOLYCRFAIR×3KillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+1.6
42-2FAIRFAIR×3Attack errSarahya College+2.1
53-2FAIRFAIR×3Attack errLacey Murphy+2.0
63-3FAIRHOLYCRServe errFairfield+1.6
74-3HOLYCRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+1.6
84-4FAIRHOLYCRKillEmma Sorensenset Tuana Ozarpaci+1.7
95-4HOLYCRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+1.6
106-4FAIRFAIRKillEmma Bortolottiset Zofia Sykut+2.0
116-5FAIRHOLYCRKillEmma Sorensenset Drew Flanagan+1.5
126-6HOLYCRHOLYCRAceHoly Crossaced Aislin Oldach+2.3
137-6HOLYCRFAIR×3Attack errKat Teepe+1.7
148-6FAIRFAIR×3KillEmma Bortolottiset Zofia Sykut+2.1
159-6FAIRFAIR×3KillKatelyn Cookset Zofia Sykut+1.9
169-7FAIRHOLYCRServe errFairfield+1.4
179-8HOLYCRHOLYCRKillKat Teepeset Zofia Sykut+2.2
1810-8HOLYCRFAIRKillZofia Sykutset Daniella Suarez+1.7
1911-8FAIRFAIRBlockedKat Teepeblk Emma Bortolotti, Harlan Wyche+2.0
2011-9FAIRHOLYCRKillElizabeth Hallset Georgia Murphy+1.5
2112-9HOLYCRFAIRBlockedGeorgia Murphyblk Zofia Sykut, Harlan Wyche+1.5
2212-10FAIRHOLYCRKillLacey Murphyset Tuana Ozarpaci+1.5
2312-11HOLYCRHOLYCRBlockedEmma Bortolottiblk Lacey Murphy, Emma Sorensen+2.4
2413-11HOLYCRFAIR×3KillEmma Bortolottiset Natalie Carlin+1.9
2514-11FAIRFAIR×3BlockedEmma Sorensenblk Harlan Wyche, Mamie Krubally+2.2
2615-11FAIRFAIR×3KillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+1.8
2715-12FAIRHOLYCRServe errFairfield+1.2
2816-12HOLYCRFAIRBlockedEmma Sorensenblk Harlan Wyche, Mamie Krubally+1.4
2916-13FAIRHOLYCRKillSarahya Collegeset Elizabeth Hall+1.2
3017-13HOLYCRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Natalie Carlin+1.4
3117-14FAIRHOLYCRKillEmma Sorensenset Nora Benjamins+1.2
3218-14HOLYCRFAIRAttack errNora Benjamins+1.4
3319-14FAIRFAIRAttack errGeorgia Murphy+1.4
3419-15FAIRHOLYCRAttack errSophia Nagy+0.7
3520-15HOLYCRFAIRKillEmma Bortolottiset Zofia Sykut+1.0
3620-16FAIRHOLYCRKillKat Teepeset Drew Flanagan+0.7
3721-16HOLYCRFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+1.0
3821-17FAIRHOLYCRAttack errMamie Krubally+0.6
3922-17HOLYCRFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+0.9
4023-17FAIRFAIRAttack errEmma Sorensen+0.6
4123-18FAIRHOLYCRAttack errHarlan Wyche+0.2
4223-19HOLYCRHOLYCRAttack errMamie Krubally+0.4
4324-19HOLYCRFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.6
4424-20FAIRHOLYCRKillEmma Sorensenset Tuana Ozarpaci+0.2
4524-21HOLYCRHOLYCRAceHoly Crossaced Aislin Oldach+0.5
4625-21HOLYCRFAIRServe errHoly Cross+0.9

Score shown after each rally, Fairfield first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).