Fairfield def. Northeastern 3–2
Fairfield won at Northeastern 3-2 (25-23, 25-23, 24-26, 19-25, 15-7) on Sat, Sep 5, 2026. Emma Bortolotti led Fairfield with 14 kills; Northeastern's Emma Rowell had a match-high 19.
Data through · final Sep 5
| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAIR | 25 | 25 | 24 | 19 | 15 | 3 |
| NOEAST | 23 | 23 | 26 | 25 | 7 | 2 |
Win probability
Biggest swing: 9.5% to Fairfield — set 5, FAIR 6-4 NOEAST. Kill by Emma Bortolotti (set by Sophia Nagy). NOEAST win probability 37% → 27%.
Pre-match
Season fit · includes this match
Fairfield wins
Northeastern wins
- FAIR break %
- 44.0% vs this opp
- NOEAST break %
- 41.8% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Top plays
Largest win-probability swings
- 01Emma BortolottiKill+9.5%
Kill by Emma Bortolotti (set by Sophia Nagy)
Set 5 · FAIR 6-4 NOEAST · FAIR 63% → 73%
- 02Emma BortolottiAttack error+9.4%
Attack error by Emma Bortolotti
Set 5 · FAIR 4-4 NOEAST · NOEAST 35% → 44%
- 03Emma Bortolotti&Harlan WycheBlock+9.0%
Brynn Smith stuffed by Emma Bortolotti & Harlan Wyche
Set 1 · FAIR 25-23 NOEAST · FAIR 69% → 78%
- 04Sophia Nagy&Zofia SykutBlock+8.5%
Cayenne Ceman stuffed by Sophia Nagy & Zofia Sykut
Set 5 · FAIR 7-4 NOEAST · FAIR 73% → 81%
- 05
- 06Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+8.4%
Point Fairfield (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 5 · FAIR 3-1 NOEAST · FAIR 63% → 71%
- 07Sophia Nagy&Mamie KruballyBlock+8.0%
Cayenne Ceman stuffed by Sophia Nagy & Mamie Krubally
Set 2 · FAIR 25-23 NOEAST · FAIR 83% → 92%
- 08NortheasternService error+7.4%
Northeastern service error
Set 5 · FAIR 5-4 NOEAST · FAIR 56% → 63%
Box score
Official NCAA box
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 14 | 7 | 44 | .159 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 19.5 | |
| 5 | 12 | 4 | 32 | .250 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 15 | |
| 5 | 7 | 4 | 13 | .231 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | |
| 5 | 5 | 1 | 11 | .364 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 8 | |
| 5 | 7 | 2 | 20 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | .250 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 5.5 | |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 19 | .053 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
2Lilly GuinaneL/DS | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 52 | 22 | 146 | .205 | 50 | 14 | 13 | 54 | 6 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 108 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 15 | 2 | 31 | .419 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 20 | |
| 5 | 9 | 1 | 17 | .471 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 13 | |
| 5 | 9 | 5 | 28 | .143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 | .182 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 11 | .273 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 19 | 8 | 38 | .289 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 20.5 | |
| 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -.667 | 43 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 61 | 21 | 142 | .282 | 55 | 6 | 15 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 104 |
Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Momentum
Point differential by rally
Set 1
25-23
Set 2
25-23
Set 3
24-26
Set 4
19-25
Set 5
15-7
Bars above the line = Northeastern leads, below = Fairfield leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Rotations
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Fairfield
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60%3/5 | 33%1/3 |
| 2 | 60%3/5 | 63%5/8 |
| 3 | 67%2/3 | 50%2/4 |
| 4 | 40%2/5 | 0%0/2 |
| 5 | 67%2/3 | 60%3/5 |
| 6 | 67%2/3 | 0%0/2 |
| All | 58%14/24 | 46%11/24 |
Northeastern
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38%3/8 | 40%2/5 |
| 2 | 50%2/4 | 40%2/5 |
| 3 | 100%2/2 | 33%1/3 |
| 4 | 40%2/5 | 60%3/5 |
| 5 | 100%2/2 | 33%1/3 |
| 6 | 67%2/3 | 33%1/3 |
| All | 54%13/24 | 42%10/24 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
Rally log
212 rallies
| # | FAIR-NOEAST | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | FAIR | FAIR | Ace | Fairfield | aced Aven Crosby | +2.3 |
| 2 | 2-0 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +2.2 |
| 3 | 2-1 | FAIR | NOEAST×3 | Serve err | Fairfield | +1.7 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | NOEAST | NOEAST×3 | Kill | Cayenne Ceman | +2.4 | |
| 5 | 2-3 | NOEAST | NOEAST×3 | Attack err | Emma Bortolotti | +2.5 | |
| 6 | 3-3 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +1.9 |
| 7 | 4-3 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | Kaylin Daniels | +2.5 | |
| 8 | 4-4 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Cayenne Ceman | set Sofia King | +1.9 |
| 9 | 4-5 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Blocked | Harlan Wyche | blk Kaylin Daniels | +2.6 |
| 10 | 5-5 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +1.9 |
| 11 | 6-5 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +2.6 |
| 12 | 6-6 | FAIR | NOEAST×3 | Serve err | Fairfield | +2.0 | |
| 13 | 6-7 | NOEAST | NOEAST×3 | Kill | Kaylin Daniels | set Arina Sosinovica | +2.8 |
| 14 | 6-8 | NOEAST | NOEAST×3 | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +2.8 |
| 15 | 7-8 | NOEAST | FAIR | Attack err | Emma Rowell | set Kaylin Daniels | +2.0 |
| 16 | 8-8 | FAIR | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +2.8 | |||
| 17 | 8-9 | FAIR | NOEAST×3 | Kill | Brynn Smith | set Aven Crosby | +2.2 |
| 18 | 8-10 | NOEAST | NOEAST×3 | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +3.0 |
| 19 | 8-11 | NOEAST | NOEAST×3 | Kill | Beatrice Gennari | set Arina Sosinovica | +3.0 |
| 20 | 9-11 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Sophia Nagy | set Noella Migliuri | +2.0 |
| 21 | 9-12 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +2.3 |
| 22 | 10-12 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Mia Jean claude | set Noella Migliuri | +2.0 |
| 23 | 11-12 | FAIR | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +3.0 | |||
| 24 | 11-13 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Brynn Smith | +2.5 | |
| 25 | 11-14 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Attack err | Emma Bortolotti | +3.2 | |
| 26 | 12-14 | NOEAST | FAIR×3 | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Noella Migliuri | +2.1 |
| 27 | 13-14 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Harlan Wyche | +3.2 | |
| 28 | 14-14 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +3.5 |
| 29 | 14-15 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Beatrice Gennari | set Sofia King | +2.8 |
| 30 | 14-16 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Blocked | Emma Bortolotti | blk Valentina Meirelles, Kaylin Daniels | +3.8 |
| 31 | 15-16 | NOEAST | FAIR×3 | Kill | Harlan Wyche | +2.6 | |
| 32 | 16-16 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +3.8 |
| 33 | 17-16 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +4.0 |
| 34 | 17-17 | FAIR | NOEAST | Attack err | Aislin Oldach | set Aislin Oldach | +3.0 |
| 35 | 18-17 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +3.2 |
| 36 | 19-17 | FAIR | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +4.1 | |||
| 37 | 19-18 | FAIR | NOEAST×3 | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +2.8 |
| 38 | 19-19 | NOEAST | NOEAST×3 | Attack err | Aislin Oldach | +4.6 | |
| 39 | 19-20 | NOEAST | NOEAST×3 | Kill | Kaylin Daniels | +5.2 | |
| 40 | 20-20 | NOEAST | FAIR | Serve err | Northeastern | +3.8 | |
| 41 | 21-20 | FAIR | FAIR | Blocked | Emma Rowell | blk Katelyn Cook, Sophia Nagy | +5.5 |
| 42 | 21-21 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Brynn Smith | set Arina Sosinovica | +4.1 |
| 43 | 22-21 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Sophia Nagy | +4.7 | |
| 44 | 23-21 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | Emma Rowell | +5.9 | |
| 45 | 23-22 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +3.2 |
| 46 | 23-23 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Blocked | Mia Jean claude | blk Brynn Smith, Beatrice Gennari | +7.2 |
| 47 | 24-23 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +7.1 |
| 48 | 25-23 | FAIR | FAIR | Blocked | Brynn Smith | blk Emma Bortolotti, Harlan Wyche | +9.0 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Ace | Northeastern | aced Natalie Carlin | +2.2 |
| 2 | 0-2 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Kill | Cayenne Ceman | +2.2 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | NOEAST | FAIR | Serve err | Northeastern | +1.6 | |
| 4 | 1-3 | FAIR | NOEAST | Blocked | Katelyn Cook | blk Beatrice Gennari | +1.7 |
| 5 | 2-3 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +1.6 |
| 6 | 2-4 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Cayenne Ceman | set Sofia King | +1.7 |
| 7 | 3-4 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +1.6 |
| 8 | 3-5 | FAIR | NOEAST×4 | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +1.8 |
| 9 | 3-6 | NOEAST | NOEAST×4 | Kill | Brynn Smith | set Arina Sosinovica | +2.3 |
| 10 | 3-7 | NOEAST | NOEAST×4 | Attack err | Sophia Nagy | +2.2 | |
| 11 | 3-8 | NOEAST | NOEAST×4 | Blocked | Emma Bortolotti | blk Brynn Smith, Kaylin Daniels | +2.1 |
| 12 | 4-8 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Mia Jean claude | set Noella Migliuri | +1.3 |
| 13 | 5-8 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | Arina Sosinovica | +2.0 | |
| 14 | 5-9 | FAIR | NOEAST | Serve err | Fairfield | +1.8 | |
| 15 | 6-9 | NOEAST | FAIR | Attack err | Emma Rowell | set Aven Crosby | +1.5 |
| 16 | 6-10 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +1.8 |
| 17 | 7-10 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Noella Migliuri | +1.5 |
| 18 | 8-10 | FAIR | FAIR | Ace | Fairfield | aced Abbie Callaway | +2.3 |
| 19 | 8-11 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Valentina Meirelles | set Beatrice Gennari | +2.0 |
| 20 | 9-11 | NOEAST | FAIR | Serve err | Northeastern | +1.8 | |
| 21 | 9-12 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Brynn Smith | set Sofia King | +2.1 |
| 22 | 9-13 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Kill | Kaylin Daniels | +2.5 | |
| 23 | 10-13 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +1.6 |
| 24 | 10-14 | FAIR | NOEAST | Serve err | Fairfield | +1.9 | |
| 25 | 10-15 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +2.2 |
| 26 | 11-15 | NOEAST | FAIR | Serve err | Northeastern | +1.3 | |
| 27 | 11-16 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +1.7 |
| 28 | 12-16 | NOEAST | FAIR×3 | Serve err | Northeastern | +1.3 | |
| 29 | 13-16 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Ace | Fairfield | aced Aven Crosby | +2.1 |
| 30 | 14-16 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Ace | Fairfield | aced Brynn Smith | +2.6 |
| 31 | 14-17 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Brynn Smith | set Arina Sosinovica | +2.4 |
| 32 | 14-18 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Kill | Brynn Smith | set Arina Sosinovica | +2.8 |
| 33 | 15-18 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Katelyn Cook | set Noella Migliuri | +1.6 |
| 34 | 15-19 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Brynn Smith | set Aven Crosby | +2.2 |
| 35 | 15-20 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Attack err | Harlan Wyche | +2.2 | |
| 36 | 16-20 | NOEAST | FAIR | Blocked | Valentina Meirelles | blk Harlan Wyche, Katelyn Cook | +1.0 |
| 37 | 16-21 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Valentina Meirelles | set Sofia King | +1.6 |
| 38 | 17-21 | NOEAST | FAIR×6 | Serve err | Northeastern | +0.9 | |
| 39 | 18-21 | FAIR | FAIR×6 | Blocked | Cayenne Ceman | blk Mamie Krubally, Harlan Wyche | +1.9 |
| 40 | 19-21 | FAIR | FAIR×6 | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +2.8 |
| 41 | 20-21 | FAIR | FAIR×6 | Ace | Fairfield | aced Brynn Smith | +3.9 |
| 42 | 21-21 | FAIR | FAIR×6 | Kill | Harlan Wyche | +5.0 | |
| 43 | 22-21 | FAIR | FAIR×6 | Blocked | Cayenne Ceman | blk Mamie Krubally | +5.6 |
| 44 | 22-22 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Cayenne Ceman | set Beatrice Gennari | +4.2 |
| 45 | 22-23 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Blocked | Mamie Krubally | blk Cayenne Ceman, Kaylin Daniels | +7.0 |
| 46 | 23-23 | NOEAST | FAIR×3 | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +5.0 |
| 47 | 24-23 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | +8.5 | |
| 48 | 25-23 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Blocked | Cayenne Ceman | blk Sophia Nagy, Mamie Krubally | +8.0 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | FAIR | NOEAST | Blocked | Katelyn Cook | blk Brynn Smith, Kaylin Daniels | +1.0 |
| 2 | 0-2 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Kill | Kaylin Daniels | +1.3 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | NOEAST | FAIR | Serve err | Northeastern | +0.9 | |
| 4 | 1-3 | FAIR | NOEAST | Blocked | Harlan Wyche | blk Emma Rowell, Kaylin Daniels | +1.0 |
| 5 | 2-3 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +0.9 |
| 6 | 3-3 | FAIR | FAIR | Blocked | Emma Rowell | blk Emma Bortolotti, Sophia Nagy | +1.3 |
| 7 | 3-4 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Beatrice Gennari | set Arina Sosinovica | +1.0 |
| 8 | 4-4 | NOEAST | FAIR | Attack err | Cayenne Ceman | set Aven Crosby | +1.0 |
| 9 | 4-5 | FAIR | NOEAST×3 | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +1.1 |
| 10 | 4-6 | NOEAST | NOEAST×3 | Kill | Abbie Callaway | set Arina Sosinovica | +1.4 |
| 11 | 4-7 | NOEAST | NOEAST×3 | Blocked | Emma Bortolotti | blk Arina Sosinovica, Beatrice Gennari | +1.4 |
| 12 | 5-7 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Sophia Nagy | set Zofia Sykut | +1.0 |
| 13 | 5-8 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Brynn Smith | set Arina Sosinovica | +1.1 |
| 14 | 5-9 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Ace | Northeastern | aced Emma Bortolotti | +1.4 |
| 15 | 6-9 | NOEAST | FAIR×4 | Kill | Katelyn Cook | set Emma Bortolotti | +0.9 |
| 16 | 7-9 | FAIR | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +1.3 | |||
| 17 | 8-9 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Kill | Zofia Sykut | set Julie Dufourt | +1.5 |
| 18 | 9-9 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Attack err | Arina Sosinovica | +1.5 | |
| 19 | 9-10 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Kaylin Daniels | set Arina Sosinovica | +1.2 |
| 20 | 10-10 | NOEAST | FAIR | Serve err | Northeastern | +1.2 | |
| 21 | 11-10 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Katelyn Cook | set Zofia Sykut | +1.6 |
| 22 | 11-11 | FAIR | NOEAST×3 | Kill | Brynn Smith | set Arina Sosinovica | +1.2 |
| 23 | 11-12 | NOEAST | NOEAST×3 | Kill | Kaylin Daniels | set Arina Sosinovica | +1.7 |
| 24 | 11-13 | NOEAST | NOEAST×3 | Attack err | Katelyn Cook | +1.8 | |
| 25 | 12-13 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +1.2 |
| 26 | 12-14 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Kaylin Daniels | set Arina Sosinovica | +1.4 |
| 27 | 13-14 | NOEAST | FAIR×3 | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +1.3 |
| 28 | 14-14 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Attack err | Beatrice Gennari | +1.8 | |
| 29 | 15-14 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Ace | Fairfield | aced Cayenne Ceman | +1.9 |
| 30 | 15-15 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +1.4 |
| 31 | 15-16 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Blocked | Mamie Krubally | blk Cayenne Ceman, Beatrice Gennari | +2.1 |
| 32 | 16-16 | NOEAST | FAIR | Serve err | Northeastern | +1.5 | |
| 33 | 16-17 | FAIR | NOEAST | Serve err | Fairfield | +1.7 | |
| 34 | 17-17 | NOEAST | FAIR | Blocked | Beatrice Gennari | blk Emma Bortolotti, Sophia Nagy | +1.6 |
| 35 | 17-18 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Brynn Smith | set Arina Sosinovica | +1.8 |
| 36 | 18-18 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Sophia Nagy | +1.7 | |
| 37 | 18-19 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Brynn Smith | set Arina Sosinovica | +1.9 |
| 38 | 18-20 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Ace | Northeastern | aced Katelyn Cook | +2.6 |
| 39 | 19-20 | NOEAST | FAIR×3 | Kill | Katelyn Cook | set Zofia Sykut | +1.6 |
| 40 | 20-20 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Blocked | Emma Rowell | blk Harlan Wyche, Mamie Krubally | +2.7 |
| 41 | 21-20 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Ace | Fairfield | aced Brynn Smith | +2.9 |
| 42 | 21-21 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +2.2 |
| 43 | 21-22 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Kill | Valentina Meirelles | set Arina Sosinovica | +3.5 |
| 44 | 22-22 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Natalie Carlin | +2.5 |
| 45 | 23-22 | FAIR | FAIR | Attack err | Emma Rowell | +3.9 | |
| 46 | 23-23 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +2.9 |
| 47 | 23-24 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +5.2 |
| 48 | 24-24 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +3.9 |
| 49 | 24-25 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Valentina Meirelles | set Aven Crosby | +3.9 |
| 50 | 24-26 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Attack err | Mamie Krubally | +5.5 | |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +2.1 |
| 2 | 1-1 | FAIR | NOEAST | Serve err | Fairfield | +2.2 | |
| 3 | 2-1 | NOEAST | FAIR×3 | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +2.2 |
| 4 | 3-1 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Kill | Harlan Wyche | set Zofia Sykut | +2.8 |
| 5 | 4-1 | FAIR | FAIR×3 | Ace | Fairfield | aced Cayenne Ceman | +2.7 |
| 6–7 | 5-2 | FAIR · NOEAST | NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +0.1 | |||
| 8 | 6-2 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +2.5 |
| 9 | 6-3 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +1.7 |
| 10 | 6-4 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Ace | Northeastern | aced Emma Bortolotti | +2.6 |
| 11 | 7-4 | NOEAST | FAIR | Attack err | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +2.1 |
| 12 | 8-4 | FAIR | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +2.6 |
| 13 | 8-5 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Cayenne Ceman | set Arina Sosinovica | +1.8 |
| 14 | 8-6 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Attack err | Harlan Wyche | +2.7 | |
| 15 | 9-6 | NOEAST | FAIR | Serve err | Northeastern | +2.2 | |
| 16 | 9-7 | FAIR | NOEAST×3 | Kill | Beatrice Gennari | set Arina Sosinovica | +2.1 |
| 17 | 9-8 | NOEAST | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +3.2 | |||
| 18 | 9-9 | NOEAST | NOEAST×3 | Kill | Brynn Smith | set Arina Sosinovica | +3.5 |
| 19 | 10-9 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +2.7 |
| 20 | 10-10 | FAIR | NOEAST | Blocked | Mamie Krubally | blk Kaylin Daniels, Brynn Smith | +2.8 |
| 21 | 10-11 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Kill | Kaylin Daniels | +3.9 | |
| 22 | 11-11 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +2.9 |
| 23 | 11-12 | FAIR | NOEAST×4 | Kill | Brynn Smith | set Arina Sosinovica | +3.1 |
| 24 | 11-13 | NOEAST | NOEAST×4 | Kill | Cayenne Ceman | set Arina Sosinovica | +4.1 |
| 25 | 11-14 | NOEAST | NOEAST×4 | Ace | Northeastern | aced Natalie Carlin | +4.0 |
| 26 | 11-15 | NOEAST | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +3.6 | |||
| 27 | 12-15 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Sophia Nagy | set Mamie Krubally | +2.2 |
| 28 | 12-16 | FAIR | NOEAST | Serve err | Fairfield | +2.8 | |
| 29 | 13-16 | NOEAST | FAIR | Serve err | Northeastern | +2.2 | |
| 30 | 14-16 | FAIR | FAIR | Ace | Fairfield | aced Emma Rowell | +3.7 |
| 31 | 14-17 | FAIR | NOEAST | Serve err | Fairfield | +3.4 | |
| 32 | 15-17 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +2.8 |
| 33 | 15-18 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Cayenne Ceman | set Arina Sosinovica | +3.5 |
| 34 | 16-18 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Natalie Carlin | +2.8 |
| 35 | 16-19 | FAIR | NOEAST | Serve err | Fairfield | +3.7 | |
| 36 | 17-19 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +2.9 |
| 37 | 18-19 | FAIR | FAIR | Ace | Fairfield | aced Brynn Smith | +4.9 |
| 38 | 18-20 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Brynn Smith | set Arina Sosinovica | +4.5 |
| 39 | 19-20 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Zofia Sykut | +3.8 |
| 40 | 19-21 | FAIR | NOEAST×5 | Serve err | Fairfield | +4.9 | |
| 41 | 19-22 | NOEAST | NOEAST×5 | Kill | Cayenne Ceman | set Kaylin Daniels | +5.6 |
| 42 | 19-23 | NOEAST | NOEAST×5 | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +3.9 |
| 43 | 19-24 | NOEAST | NOEAST×5 | Ace | Northeastern | aced Natalie Carlin | +1.9 |
| 44 | 19-25 | NOEAST | NOEAST×5 | Kill | Aven Crosby | +0.6 | |
| Set 5 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Mamie Krubally | set Zofia Sykut | +6.2 |
| 2 | 1-1 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +6.4 |
| 3 | 2-1 | NOEAST | FAIR | Serve err | Northeastern | +6.5 | |
| 4 | 3-1 | FAIR | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +8.4 | |||
| 5 | 3-2 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +6.0 |
| 6 | 4-2 | NOEAST | FAIR | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Katelyn Cook | +6.5 |
| 7 | 4-3 | FAIR | NOEAST | Kill | Emma Rowell | set Arina Sosinovica | +6.2 |
| 8 | 4-4 | NOEAST | NOEAST | Attack err | Emma Bortolotti | +9.4 | |
| 9 | 5-4 | NOEAST | FAIR×4 | Serve err | Northeastern | +7.4 | |
| 10 | 6-4 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Kill | Emma Bortolotti | set Sophia Nagy | +9.5 |
| 11 | 7-4 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Blocked | Cayenne Ceman | blk Sophia Nagy, Zofia Sykut | +8.5 |
| 12 | 8-4 | FAIR | FAIR×4 | Ace | Fairfield | aced Brynn Smith | +7.0 |
| 13 | 8-5 | FAIR | NOEAST | Blocked | Emma Bortolotti | blk Beatrice Gennari, Valentina Meirelles | +4.1 |
| 14 | 9-5 | NOEAST | FAIR | Serve err | Northeastern | +5.3 | |
| 15 | 9-6 | FAIR | NOEAST | Serve err | Fairfield | +4.0 | |
| 16 | 10-6 | NOEAST | FAIR×5 | Bad set | Sofia King | +5.4 | |
| 17 | 11-6 | FAIR | FAIR×5 | Blocked | Brynn Smith | blk Sophia Nagy, Mamie Krubally | +4.9 |
| 18 | 12-6 | FAIR | FAIR×5 | Ace | Fairfield | aced Abbie Callaway | +2.8 |
| 19 | 13-6 | FAIR | FAIR×5 | Kill | Aislin Oldach | set Zofia Sykut | +1.2 |
| 20 | 14-6 | FAIR | FAIR×5 | Ace | Fairfield | aced Abbie Callaway | +0.4 |
| 21 | 14-7 | FAIR | NOEAST | Serve err | Fairfield | · | |
| 22 | 15-7 | NOEAST | FAIR | Serve err | Northeastern | +0.1 | |
Score shown after each rally, Fairfield first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).