Final · 4 setsThu, Sep 17, 2026

AwayNEC

1:3

HomeMETRO

Fairfield def. Central Conn. St. 3–1

(25-15, 25-27, 25-14, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
C CONN	15	27	14	15	1
FAIR	25	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

FAIR above 50 · C CONN below

Biggest swing: 1.7% to Central Conn. St. — set 2, C CONN 27-25 FAIR. Attack error by Zofia Sykut. FAIR win probability 97% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

C CONN 1.3%98.7% FAIR

Central Conn. St. wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.3%

3-2

0.9%

Fairfield wins

3-0

71.4%

3-1

22.7%

3-2

4.5%

C CONN break %: 35.0% vs this opp
FAIR break %: 52.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Zofia SykutAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Zofia Sykut
Set 2 · C CONN 27-25 FAIR · C CONN 3% → 4%
02
Anja MilosevicKill+1.1%
Kill by Anja Milosevic
Set 2 · C CONN 24-23 FAIR · C CONN 1% → 3%
03
Breanna GinleyKill+1.1%
Kill by Breanna Ginley (set by Anja Milosevic)
Set 2 · C CONN 26-25 FAIR · C CONN 1% → 3%
04
C CONN serverService error+0.9%
Central Conn. St. service error
Set 2 · C CONN 24-24 FAIR · FAIR 97% → 98%
05
Olivia KecklerAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Olivia Keckler
Set 2 · C CONN 24-25 FAIR · FAIR 98% → 99%
06
Noella MigliuriAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Noella Migliuri
Set 4 · C CONN 7-6 FAIR · C CONN 2% → 3%
07
FAIR serverService error+0.7%
Fairfield service error
Set 3 · C CONN 3-2 FAIR · C CONN 4% → 5%
08
FAIR serverAce+0.7%
Fairfield ace on Annabelle Denomme
Set 3 · C CONN 3-4 FAIR · FAIR 95% → 96%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Central Conn. St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
11Cullen WinterMB	4	8	3	21	.238	0	0	0	2	1	4	2	10
5Olivia KecklerOPP	4	7	5	36	.056	0	1	3	4	3	0	0	8
2Breanna GinleyMB	4	7	3	18	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
10Anja MilosevicS	4	1	0	1	1.000	32	1	1	8	0	1	0.5	2.5
6Meg BerklandL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	2	6	0	0	1
18Adele MacerMB	1	1	2	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
9Hanley SchmidtOH	4	12	5	26	.269	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	13
1Annabelle DenommeL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	1	0	4	12	3	0	0	0
4Gabriella BurdierDS	4	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	2	0	0	0	0
7Aubrey StitcherOH	2	3	3	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
15Madison FulgencioOH	2	1	1	9	.000	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.5	1.5
Team totals		40	22	124	.145	35	3	11	33	14	8	4	71

Fairfieldhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Emma BortolottiOPP	4	11	5	24	.250	3	3	3	11	0	1	3	2.5	16.5
7Aislin OldachOH	4	13	1	24	.500	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	1	14
1Mamie KruballyOPP	4	10	0	20	.500	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	1	11
3Sophia NagyMB	4	6	1	10	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
22Harlan WycheMB	4	2	2	8	.000	0	2	1	1	0	0	4	2	6
11Zofia SykutS	4	1	2	3	-.333	25	5	3	9	0	0	0	0	6
21Mia Jean ClaudeOH	4	7	0	15	.467	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	7
10Noella MigliuriS	4	1	1	2	.000	11	3	1	4	0	0	0	0	4
8Katelyn CookOH	4	1	0	1	1.000	3	1	3	9	0	0	0	0	2
15Daniella SuarezOH	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Natalie CarlinL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	11	0	0	0	0	0
4Courtney VinesMB	2	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
24Ella PaniaguaOH	1	0	2	2	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Julie DufourtL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		53	14	110	.355	46	14	13	50	3	1	14	8	100

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 C CONN · FAIR 6

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 3 C CONNFAIR 4

Set 2

27-25

Longest run 4 C CONNFAIR 4

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 3 C CONNFAIR 6

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 5 C CONNFAIR 6

Bars above the line = Fairfield leads, below = Central Conn. St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Central Conn. St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	35%9/26	20%2/10
2	64%9/14	31%4/13
3	50%8/16	18%2/11
4	44%7/16	50%7/14
5	47%7/15	42%5/12
6	50%6/12	42%5/12
All	46%46/99	35%25/72

Fairfield

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%9/12	61%11/18
2	82%9/11	61%14/23
3	82%9/11	40%6/15
4	41%7/17	53%9/17
5	78%7/9	46%6/13
6	50%6/12	54%7/13
All	65%47/72	54%53/99

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

171 rallies

Rally log

#	C CONN-FAIR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	FAIR	C CONN	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.2
2	1-1	C CONN	FAIR	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.2
3	1-2	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+0.2
4	2-2	FAIR	C CONN	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.2
5	2-3	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+0.1
6	2-4	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Katelyn Cook	+0.2
7	3-4	FAIR	C CONN	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.1
8	3-5	C CONN	FAIR	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.1
9	4-5	FAIR	C CONN×3	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.1
10	5-5	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Hanley Schmidt		+0.2
11	6-5	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Gabriella Burdier	+0.3
12	6-6	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Mia Jean Claude	set Noella Migliuri	+0.2
13	6-7	FAIR	FAIR	Attack err	Cullen Winter		+0.2
14	7-7	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
15	7-8	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Harlan Wyche	set Noella Migliuri	+0.2
16	7-9	FAIR	FAIR	Ace	FAIR server	aced Annabelle Denomme	+0.2
17	8-9	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
18	8-10	C CONN	FAIR×3	Attack err	Cullen Winter		+0.2
19	8-11	FAIR	FAIR×3	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Natalie Carlin	+0.2
20	8-12	FAIR	FAIR×3	Ace	FAIR server	aced Olivia Keckler	+0.1
21	9-12	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Adele Macer	set Anja Milosevic	+0.1
22	9-13	C CONN	FAIR×3	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.1
23	9-14	FAIR	FAIR×3	Attack err	Adele Macer		+0.1
24	9-15	FAIR	FAIR×3	Attack err	Adele Macer		+0.1
25	10-15	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+0.0
26	10-16	C CONN	FAIR	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.0
27	11-16	FAIR	C CONN	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.0
28	11-17	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.0
29	12-17	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.0
30	13-17	C CONN	C CONN	Attack err	Aislin Oldach	blk Cullen Winter, Hanley Schmidt	+0.1
31	13-18	C CONN	FAIR×3	Attack err	Olivia Keckler		+0.1
32	13-19	FAIR	FAIR×3	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Katelyn Cook	+0.1
33	13-20	FAIR	FAIR×3	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt	blk Emma Bortolotti	+0.0
34	14-20	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+0.0
35	14-21	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+0.0
36	15-21	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.0
37	15-22	C CONN	FAIR×4	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Noella Migliuri	+0.0
38	15-23	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Zofia Sykut	set Natalie Carlin	+0.0
39	15-24	FAIR	FAIR×4	Ace	FAIR server	aced Meg Berkland	+0.0
40	15-25	FAIR	FAIR×4	Ace	FAIR server	aced Cullen Winter	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	C CONN	FAIR	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.1
2	1-1	FAIR	C CONN	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.1
3	1-2	C CONN	FAIR	Attack err	Breanna Ginley		+0.1
4	2-2	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.1
5	2-3	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.1
6	2-4	FAIR	FAIR	Attack err	Breanna Ginley	blk Harlan Wyche, Aislin Oldach	+0.1
7	3-4	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Gabriella Burdier	+0.1
8	4-4	C CONN	C CONN	Ace	C CONN server	aced Mia Jean Claude	+0.1
9	4-5	C CONN	FAIR	Attack err	Breanna Ginley		+0.1
10	5-5	FAIR	C CONN	Attack err	Emma Bortolotti		+0.1
11	5-6	C CONN	FAIR	Attack err	Madison Fulgencio		+0.1
12	6-6	FAIR	C CONN×4	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+0.1
13	7-6	C CONN	C CONN×4	Kill	Hanley Schmidt		+0.2
14	8-6	C CONN	C CONN×4	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
15	9-6	C CONN	C CONN×4	Ace	C CONN server	aced Mia Jean Claude	+0.3
16	9-7	C CONN	FAIR×3	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.2
17	9-8	FAIR	FAIR×3	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Zofia Sykut	+0.2
18	9-9	FAIR	FAIR×3	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt	blk Mamie Krubally, Sophia Nagy	+0.2
19	10-9	FAIR	C CONN	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.2
20	11-9	C CONN	C CONN	Attack err	Emma Bortolotti		+0.3
21	11-10	C CONN	FAIR×4	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Zofia Sykut	+0.2
22	11-11	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.2
23	11-12	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+0.2
24	11-13	FAIR	FAIR×4	Attack err	Olivia Keckler	blk Mamie Krubally, Sophia Nagy	+0.2
25	12-13	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.1
26	12-14	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+0.1
27	13-14	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.1
28	13-15	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.1
29	14-15	FAIR	C CONN	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.2
30	14-16	C CONN	FAIR	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.1
31	15-16	FAIR	C CONN×3	Attack err	Harlan Wyche		+0.2
32	16-16	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+0.3
33	17-16	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Emma Bortolotti	blk Anja Milosevic, Cullen Winter	+0.4
34	17-17	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Zofia Sykut	+0.3
35	18-17	FAIR	C CONN×3	Attack err	Zofia Sykut		+0.3
36	19-17	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Emma Bortolotti	blk Hanley Schmidt, Cullen Winter	+0.5
37	20-17	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Sophia Nagy	blk Cullen Winter, Madison Fulgencio	+0.6
38	20-18	C CONN	FAIR×3	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Julie Dufourt	+0.3
39	20-19	FAIR	FAIR×3	Kill	Sophia Nagy		+0.5
40	20-20	FAIR	FAIR×3	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.5
41	21-20	FAIR	C CONN	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.5
42	21-21	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.4
43	21-22	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Katelyn Cook	+0.5
44	22-22	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+0.4
45	22-23	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+0.5
46	23-23	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Annabelle Denomme	+0.5
47	24-23	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Anja Milosevic		+1.1
48	24-24	C CONN	FAIR	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.9
49	24-25	FAIR	FAIR	Attack err	Olivia Keckler		+0.8
50	25-25	FAIR	C CONN×3	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+0.6
51	26-25	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+1.1
52	27-25	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Zofia Sykut		+1.7
Set 3
1	1-0	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Madison Fulgencio	set Anja Milosevic	+0.7
2	1-1	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Aislin Oldach	+0.5
3	2-1	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+0.7
4	2-2	C CONN	FAIR	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.6
5	3-2	FAIR	C CONN	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.7
6	3-3	C CONN	FAIR×6	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+0.6
7	3-4	FAIR	FAIR×6	Ace	FAIR server	aced Annabelle Denomme	+0.7
8	3-5	FAIR	FAIR×6	Ace	FAIR server	aced Meg Berkland	+0.6
9	3-6	FAIR	FAIR×6	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Emma Bortolotti	+0.5
10	3-7	FAIR	FAIR×6	Ace	FAIR server	aced Meg Berkland	+0.4
11	3-8	FAIR	FAIR×6	Attack err	Olivia Keckler		+0.3
12	4-8	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
13	4-9	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Mia Jean Claude	set Noella Migliuri	+0.2
14	5-9	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
15	5-10	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Katelyn Cook		+0.2
16	6-10	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
17	7-10	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.4
18	7-11	C CONN	FAIR×3	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Emma Bortolotti	+0.3
19	7-12	FAIR	FAIR×3	Ace	FAIR server	aced Madison Fulgencio	+0.3
20	7-13	FAIR	FAIR×3	Ace	FAIR server	aced Annabelle Denomme	+0.2
21	8-13	FAIR	C CONN×3	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.1
22	9-13	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Emma Bortolotti		+0.3
23	10-13	C CONN	C CONN×3	Ace	C CONN server	aced Aislin Oldach	+0.5
24	10-14	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.4
25	10-15	FAIR	FAIR	Ace	FAIR server	aced Meg Berkland	+0.3
26	11-15	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
27	11-16	C CONN	FAIR×5	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+0.3
28	11-17	FAIR	FAIR×5	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+0.2
29	11-18	FAIR	FAIR×5	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+0.1
30	11-19	FAIR	FAIR×5	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+0.1
31	11-20	FAIR	FAIR×5	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt	blk Aislin Oldach, Harlan Wyche	+0.0
32	12-20	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Annabelle Denomme	+0.0
33	12-21	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Mamie Krubally	set Zofia Sykut	+0.0
34	12-22	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Mia Jean Claude	set Noella Migliuri	+0.0
35	13-22	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+0.0
36	13-23	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Noella Migliuri	+0.0
37	14-23	FAIR	C CONN	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.0
38	14-24	C CONN	FAIR	Attack err	Aubrey Stitcher	blk Emma Bortolotti, Harlan Wyche	+0.0
39	14-25	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+0.0
Set 4
1	0-1	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Zofia Sykut	+0.3
2	0-2	FAIR	FAIR	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+0.4
3	1-2	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+0.3
4	1-3	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Anja Milosevic	+0.3
5	1-4	FAIR	FAIR	Ace	FAIR server	aced Meg Berkland	+0.3
6	2-4	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
7	2-5	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Harlan Wyche	set Zofia Sykut	+0.2
8	2-6	FAIR	FAIR	Attack err	Olivia Keckler		+0.2
9	3-6	FAIR	C CONN×5	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.2
10	4-6	C CONN	C CONN×5	Attack err	Harlan Wyche		+0.3
11	5-6	C CONN	C CONN×5	Kill	Aubrey Stitcher	set Anja Milosevic	+0.5
12	6-6	C CONN	C CONN×5	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.6
13	7-6	C CONN	C CONN×5	Attack err	Noella Migliuri		+0.8
14	7-7	C CONN	FAIR×4	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.5
15	7-8	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Mia Jean Claude	set Anja Milosevic	+0.6
16	7-9	FAIR	FAIR×4	Kill	Mia Jean Claude		+0.5
17	7-10	FAIR	FAIR×4	Attack err	Aubrey Stitcher	blk Harlan Wyche, Emma Bortolotti	+0.4
18	8-10	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Aubrey Stitcher	set Anja Milosevic	+0.3
19	8-11	C CONN	FAIR×6	Kill	Mia Jean Claude	set Noella Migliuri	+0.3
20	8-12	FAIR	FAIR×6	Kill	Noella Migliuri	set Emma Bortolotti	+0.3
21	8-13	FAIR	FAIR×6	Attack err	Aubrey Stitcher	blk Sophia Nagy, Emma Bortolotti	+0.2
22	8-14	FAIR	FAIR×6	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Noella Migliuri	+0.2
23	8-15	FAIR	FAIR×6	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Noella Migliuri	+0.1
24	8-16	FAIR	FAIR×6	Ace	FAIR server	aced Olivia Keckler	+0.1
25	9-16	FAIR	C CONN	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.0
26	9-17	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Mia Jean Claude	set Anja Milosevic	+0.0
27	10-17	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Aubrey Stitcher	set Anja Milosevic	+0.0
28	10-18	C CONN	FAIR×6	Kill	Emma Bortolotti	set Zofia Sykut	+0.0
29	10-19	FAIR	FAIR×6	Ace	FAIR server	aced Olivia Keckler	+0.0
30	10-20	FAIR	FAIR×6	Kill	Sophia Nagy	set Zofia Sykut	+0.0
31	10-21	FAIR	FAIR×6	Attack err	Cullen Winter		+0.0
32	10-22	FAIR	FAIR×6	Ace	FAIR server	aced Meg Berkland	+0.0
33	10-23	FAIR	FAIR×6	Kill	Aislin Oldach	set Zofia Sykut	+0.0
34	11-23	FAIR	C CONN×3	Serve err	FAIR server		+0.0
35	12-23	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Ella Paniagua		+0.0
36	13-23	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Ella Paniagua		+0.0
37	13-24	C CONN	FAIR	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.0
38	14-24	FAIR	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.0
39	15-24	C CONN	C CONN	Bad set	Zofia Sykut		+0.0
40	15-25	C CONN	FAIR	Kill	Courtney Vines	set Zofia Sykut	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Central Conn. St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.