Final · 4 setsThu, Sep 17, 2026

Fairfield def. Central Conn. St. 3–1

Fairfield beat visiting Central Conn. St. 3-1 (25-15, 25-27, 25-14, 25-15) on Thu, Sep 17, 2026. Fairfield's Aislin Oldach led with 13 kills.

Data through · final Sep 17

Set1234Sets
C CONN152714151
FAIR252525253

Win probability

Fairfield above 50 · Central Conn. St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+2.5% C CONNrally 171 · set 4

Biggest swing: 2.5% to Central Conn. St. — set 2, C CONN 27-25 FAIR. Attack error by Zofia Sykut. FAIR win probability 96% → 94%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

C CONN 2.5%97.5% FAIR

Central Conn. St. wins

3-0
0.3%
3-1
0.7%
3-2
1.6%

Fairfield wins

3-0
64.3%
3-1
26.4%
3-2
6.7%
C CONN break %
35.4% vs this opp
FAIR break %
50.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Zofia SykutAttack error+2.5%

    Attack error by Zofia Sykut

    Set 2 · C CONN 27-25 FAIR · C CONN 4% → 6%

  2. 02

    Kill by Anja Milosevic

    Set 2 · C CONN 24-23 FAIR · C CONN 2% → 4%

  3. 03

    Kill by Breanna Ginley (set by Anja Milosevic)

    Set 2 · C CONN 26-25 FAIR · C CONN 2% → 4%

  4. 04
    Central Conn. St.Service error+1.4%

    Central Conn. St. service error

    Set 2 · C CONN 24-24 FAIR · FAIR 96% → 97%

  5. 05
    Olivia KecklerAttack error+1.3%

    Attack error by Olivia Keckler

    Set 2 · C CONN 24-25 FAIR · FAIR 97% → 99%

  6. 06
    Noella MigliuriAttack error+1.1%

    Attack error by Noella Migliuri

    Set 4 · C CONN 7-6 FAIR · C CONN 3% → 4%

  7. 07
    FairfieldAce+1.0%

    Fairfield ace on Annabelle Denomme

    Set 3 · C CONN 3-4 FAIR · FAIR 93% → 94%

  8. 08
    FairfieldService error+1.0%

    Fairfield service error

    Set 3 · C CONN 3-2 FAIR · C CONN 7% → 8%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
48321.2380002104210
47536.056013430008
47318.222000000007
41011.000321180010.52.5
4000–011260001
1124-.250000000001
412526.2690002002113
4000–1041230000
4000–202200000
2339.000000000003
2119.00000011010.51.5
Team totals4022124.14535311331408471
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411524.250333110132.516.5
413124.5001011102114
410020.5000012002111
46110.50000000031.57.5
4228.000021100426
4123-.3332553900006
47015.467000120007
4112.0001131400004
41011.000313900002
4000–000000000
4000–2001100000
21011.000000000001
1022-1.000000000000
1000–100100000
Team totals5314110.3554614135031148100

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 C CONN · FAIR 6

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 3 C CONNFAIR 4

Set 2

27-25

Longest run 4 C CONNFAIR 4

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 3 C CONNFAIR 6

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 5 C CONNFAIR 6

Bars above the line = Fairfield leads, below = Central Conn. St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Central Conn. St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
35%9/26
20%2/10
2
64%9/14
31%4/13
3
50%8/16
18%2/11
4
44%7/16
50%7/14
5
47%7/15
42%5/12
6
50%6/12
42%5/12
All
46%46/99
35%25/72

Fairfield

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%9/12
61%11/18
2
82%9/11
61%14/23
3
82%9/11
40%6/15
4
41%7/17
53%9/17
5
78%7/9
46%6/13
6
50%6/12
54%7/13
All
65%47/72
54%53/99

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

171 rallies

#C CONN-FAIRSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0FAIRC CONNServe errFairfield+0.3
21-1C CONNFAIRServe errCentral Conn. St.+0.3
31-2FAIRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+0.3
42-2FAIRC CONNServe errFairfield+0.3
52-3C CONNFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+0.2
62-4FAIRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Katelyn Cook+0.3
73-4FAIRC CONNServe errFairfield+0.2
83-5C CONNFAIRServe errCentral Conn. St.+0.2
94-5FAIRC CONN×3KillBreanna Ginleyset Anja Milosevic+0.2
105-5C CONNC CONN×3KillHanley Schmidt+0.4
116-5C CONNC CONN×3KillHanley Schmidtset Gabriella Burdier+0.5
126-6C CONNFAIRKillMia Jean Claudeset Noella Migliuri+0.3
136-7FAIRFAIRAttack errCullen Winter+0.4
147-7FAIRC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Anja Milosevic+0.4
157-8C CONNFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Noella Migliuri+0.3
167-9FAIRFAIRAceFairfieldaced Annabelle Denomme+0.4
178-9FAIRC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Anja Milosevic+0.3
188-10C CONNFAIR×3Attack errCullen Winter+0.3
198-11FAIRFAIR×3KillMamie Kruballyset Natalie Carlin+0.3
208-12FAIRFAIR×3AceFairfieldaced Olivia Keckler+0.2
219-12FAIRC CONNKillAdele Macerset Anja Milosevic+0.2
229-13C CONNFAIR×3Serve errCentral Conn. St.+0.2
239-14FAIRFAIR×3Attack errAdele Macer+0.2
249-15FAIRFAIR×3Attack errAdele Macer+0.1
2510-15FAIRC CONNKillOlivia Kecklerset Anja Milosevic+0.1
2610-16C CONNFAIRServe errCentral Conn. St.+0.1
2711-16FAIRC CONNServe errFairfield+0.1
2811-17C CONNFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.1
2912-17FAIRC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Anja Milosevic+0.1
3013-17C CONNC CONNBlockedAislin Oldachblk Cullen Winter, Hanley Schmidt+0.1
3113-18C CONNFAIR×3Attack errOlivia Keckler+0.1
3213-19FAIRFAIR×3KillEmma Bortolottiset Katelyn Cook+0.1
3313-20FAIRFAIR×3BlockedHanley Schmidtblk Emma Bortolotti+0.1
3414-20FAIRC CONNKillCullen Winterset Anja Milosevic·
3514-21C CONNFAIRKillEmma Bortolottiset Noella Migliuri·
3615-21FAIRC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Anja Milosevic·
3715-22C CONNFAIR×4KillSophia Nagyset Noella Migliuri·
3815-23FAIRFAIR×4KillZofia Sykutset Natalie Carlin·
3915-24FAIRFAIR×4AceFairfieldaced Meg Berkland·
4015-25FAIRFAIR×4AceFairfieldaced Cullen Winter·
Set 2
10-1C CONNFAIRServe errCentral Conn. St.+0.1
21-1FAIRC CONNServe errFairfield+0.2
31-2C CONNFAIRAttack errBreanna Ginley+0.1
42-2FAIRC CONNKillBreanna Ginleyset Anja Milosevic+0.2
52-3C CONNFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.2
62-4FAIRFAIRBlockedBreanna Ginleyblk Harlan Wyche, Aislin Oldach+0.2
73-4FAIRC CONNKillOlivia Kecklerset Gabriella Burdier+0.1
84-4C CONNC CONNAceCentral Conn. St.aced Mia Jean Claude+0.2
94-5C CONNFAIRAttack errBreanna Ginley+0.2
105-5FAIRC CONNAttack errEmma Bortolotti+0.2
115-6C CONNFAIRAttack errMadison Fulgencio+0.2
126-6FAIRC CONN×4KillCullen Winterset Anja Milosevic+0.2
137-6C CONNC CONN×4KillHanley Schmidt+0.3
148-6C CONNC CONN×4KillCullen Winterset Anja Milosevic+0.4
159-6C CONNC CONN×4AceCentral Conn. St.aced Mia Jean Claude+0.5
169-7C CONNFAIR×3Serve errCentral Conn. St.+0.3
179-8FAIRFAIR×3KillEmma Bortolottiset Zofia Sykut+0.4
189-9FAIRFAIR×3BlockedHanley Schmidtblk Mamie Krubally, Sophia Nagy+0.3
1910-9FAIRC CONNServe errFairfield+0.3
2011-9C CONNC CONNAttack errEmma Bortolotti+0.5
2111-10C CONNFAIR×4KillEmma Bortolottiset Zofia Sykut+0.3
2211-11FAIRFAIR×4KillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.4
2311-12FAIRFAIR×4KillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+0.3
2411-13FAIRFAIR×4BlockedOlivia Kecklerblk Mamie Krubally, Sophia Nagy+0.3
2512-13FAIRC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Anja Milosevic+0.2
2612-14C CONNFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+0.2
2713-14FAIRC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Anja Milosevic+0.2
2813-15C CONNFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.2
2914-15FAIRC CONNServe errFairfield+0.3
3014-16C CONNFAIRServe errCentral Conn. St.+0.2
3115-16FAIRC CONN×3Attack errHarlan Wyche+0.3
3216-16C CONNC CONN×3KillCullen Winterset Anja Milosevic+0.5
3317-16C CONNC CONN×3BlockedEmma Bortolottiblk Anja Milosevic, Cullen Winter+0.6
3417-17C CONNFAIRKillEmma Bortolottiset Zofia Sykut+0.4
3518-17FAIRC CONN×3Attack errZofia Sykut+0.5
3619-17C CONNC CONN×3BlockedEmma Bortolottiblk Hanley Schmidt, Cullen Winter+0.8
3720-17C CONNC CONN×3BlockedSophia Nagyblk Cullen Winter, Madison Fulgencio+0.9
3820-18C CONNFAIR×3KillEmma Bortolottiset Julie Dufourt+0.5
3920-19FAIRFAIR×3KillSophia Nagy+0.8
4020-20FAIRFAIR×3KillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.8
4121-20FAIRC CONNServe errFairfield+0.7
4221-21C CONNFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.6
4321-22FAIRFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Katelyn Cook+0.9
4422-22FAIRC CONNKillCullen Winterset Anja Milosevic+0.7
4522-23C CONNFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+0.7
4623-23FAIRC CONNKillBreanna Ginleyset Annabelle Denomme+0.8
4724-23C CONNC CONNKillAnja Milosevic+1.7
4824-24C CONNFAIRServe errCentral Conn. St.+1.4
4924-25FAIRFAIRAttack errOlivia Keckler+1.3
5025-25FAIRC CONN×3KillOlivia Kecklerset Anja Milosevic+1.0
5126-25C CONNC CONN×3KillBreanna Ginleyset Anja Milosevic+1.7
5227-25C CONNC CONN×3Attack errZofia Sykut+2.5
Set 3
11-0FAIRC CONNKillMadison Fulgencioset Anja Milosevic+0.9
21-1C CONNFAIRKillEmma Bortolottiset Aislin Oldach+0.8
32-1FAIRC CONNKillCullen Winterset Anja Milosevic+0.9
42-2C CONNFAIRServe errCentral Conn. St.+0.8
53-2FAIRC CONNServe errFairfield+1.0
63-3C CONNFAIR×6KillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+0.8
73-4FAIRFAIR×6AceFairfieldaced Annabelle Denomme+1.0
83-5FAIRFAIR×6AceFairfieldaced Meg Berkland+0.8
93-6FAIRFAIR×6KillAislin Oldachset Emma Bortolotti+0.7
103-7FAIRFAIR×6AceFairfieldaced Meg Berkland+0.5
113-8FAIRFAIR×6Attack errOlivia Keckler+0.4
124-8FAIRC CONNKillOlivia Kecklerset Anja Milosevic+0.3
134-9C CONNFAIRKillMia Jean Claudeset Noella Migliuri+0.3
145-9FAIRC CONNKillBreanna Ginleyset Anja Milosevic+0.3
155-10C CONNFAIRKillKatelyn Cook+0.3
166-10FAIRC CONNKillCullen Winterset Anja Milosevic+0.3
177-10C CONNC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Anja Milosevic+0.6
187-11C CONNFAIR×3KillSophia Nagyset Emma Bortolotti+0.5
197-12FAIRFAIR×3AceFairfieldaced Madison Fulgencio+0.5
207-13FAIRFAIR×3AceFairfieldaced Annabelle Denomme+0.3
218-13FAIRC CONN×3KillHanley Schmidtset Anja Milosevic+0.2
229-13C CONNC CONN×3Attack errEmma Bortolotti+0.4
2310-13C CONNC CONN×3AceCentral Conn. St.aced Aislin Oldach+0.6
2410-14C CONNFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.5
2510-15FAIRFAIRAceFairfieldaced Meg Berkland+0.5
2611-15FAIRC CONNKillOlivia Kecklerset Anja Milosevic+0.3
2711-16C CONNFAIR×5KillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+0.4
2811-17FAIRFAIR×5Attack errHanley Schmidt+0.3
2911-18FAIRFAIR×5Attack errHanley Schmidt+0.2
3011-19FAIRFAIR×5KillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+0.1
3111-20FAIRFAIR×5BlockedHanley Schmidtblk Aislin Oldach, Harlan Wyche·
3212-20FAIRC CONNKillOlivia Kecklerset Annabelle Denomme·
3312-21C CONNFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut·
3412-22FAIRFAIRKillMia Jean Claudeset Noella Migliuri·
3513-22FAIRC CONNKillOlivia Kecklerset Anja Milosevic·
3613-23C CONNFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Noella Migliuri·
3714-23FAIRC CONNServe errFairfield·
3814-24C CONNFAIRBlockedAubrey Stitcherblk Emma Bortolotti, Harlan Wyche·
3914-25FAIRFAIRKillEmma Bortolottiset Noella Migliuri·
Set 4
10-1C CONNFAIRKillEmma Bortolottiset Zofia Sykut+0.4
20-2FAIRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+0.5
31-2FAIRC CONNKillCullen Winterset Anja Milosevic+0.4
41-3C CONNFAIRKillSophia Nagyset Anja Milosevic+0.4
51-4FAIRFAIRAceFairfieldaced Meg Berkland+0.4
62-4FAIRC CONNKillBreanna Ginleyset Anja Milosevic+0.4
72-5C CONNFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+0.3
82-6FAIRFAIRAttack errOlivia Keckler+0.4
93-6FAIRC CONN×5Serve errFairfield+0.3
104-6C CONNC CONN×5Attack errHarlan Wyche+0.5
115-6C CONNC CONN×5KillAubrey Stitcherset Anja Milosevic+0.7
126-6C CONNC CONN×5KillBreanna Ginleyset Anja Milosevic+0.9
137-6C CONNC CONN×5Attack errNoella Migliuri+1.1
147-7C CONNFAIR×4Serve errCentral Conn. St.+0.7
157-8FAIRFAIR×4KillMia Jean Claudeset Anja Milosevic+0.9
167-9FAIRFAIR×4KillMia Jean Claude+0.7
177-10FAIRFAIR×4BlockedAubrey Stitcherblk Harlan Wyche, Emma Bortolotti+0.6
188-10FAIRC CONNKillAubrey Stitcherset Anja Milosevic+0.5
198-11C CONNFAIR×6KillMia Jean Claudeset Noella Migliuri+0.4
208-12FAIRFAIR×6KillNoella Migliuriset Emma Bortolotti+0.5
218-13FAIRFAIR×6BlockedAubrey Stitcherblk Sophia Nagy, Emma Bortolotti+0.3
228-14FAIRFAIR×6KillEmma Bortolottiset Noella Migliuri+0.2
238-15FAIRFAIR×6KillSophia Nagyset Noella Migliuri+0.1
248-16FAIRFAIR×6AceFairfieldaced Olivia Keckler+0.1
259-16FAIRC CONNServe errFairfield·
269-17C CONNFAIRKillMia Jean Claudeset Anja Milosevic+0.1
2710-17FAIRC CONNKillAubrey Stitcherset Anja Milosevic·
2810-18C CONNFAIR×6KillEmma Bortolottiset Zofia Sykut+0.1
2910-19FAIRFAIR×6AceFairfieldaced Olivia Keckler·
3010-20FAIRFAIR×6KillSophia Nagyset Zofia Sykut·
3110-21FAIRFAIR×6Attack errCullen Winter·
3210-22FAIRFAIR×6AceFairfieldaced Meg Berkland·
3310-23FAIRFAIR×6KillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut·
3411-23FAIRC CONN×3Serve errFairfield·
3512-23C CONNC CONN×3Attack errElla Paniagua·
3613-23C CONNC CONN×3Attack errElla Paniagua·
3713-24C CONNFAIRServe errCentral Conn. St.·
3814-24FAIRC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Anja Milosevic·
3915-24C CONNC CONNBad setZofia Sykut·
4015-25C CONNFAIRKillCourtney Vinesset Zofia Sykut·

Score shown after each rally, Central Conn. St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).