UC San Diego def. Saint Mary's (CA) 3–1
UC San Diego won at Saint Mary's (CA) 3-1 (20-25, 25-22, 25-15, 25-19) on Fri, Aug 28, 2026. UC San Diego's Molly McCluskey and Katelyn Hernandez led with 12 kills each, and Paulina Baillie added 13 digs.
Data through · final Aug 28
| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCSD | 20 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 3 |
| STMARY | 25 | 22 | 15 | 19 | 1 |
Win probability
Biggest swing: 4.1% to UC San Diego — set 4, UCSD 11-8 STMARY. UC San Diego ace on Layne Dent. STMARY win probability 19% → 15%.
Pre-match
Season fit · includes this match
UC San Diego wins
Saint Mary's (CA) wins
- UCSD break %
- 42.0% vs this opp
- STMARY break %
- 43.1% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Top plays
Largest win-probability swings
- 01UC San DiegoAce+4.1%
UC San Diego ace on Layne Dent
Set 4 · UCSD 11-8 STMARY · UCSD 81% → 85%
- 02Lucia BarrosoKill+4.0%
Kill by Lucia Barroso (set by Brynne McGhie)
Set 4 · UCSD 7-5 STMARY · UCSD 76% → 80%
- 03UC San DiegoAce+3.9%
UC San Diego ace on Layne Dent
Set 4 · UCSD 6-5 STMARY · UCSD 72% → 76%
- 04Saint Mary's (CA)Ace+3.9%
Saint Mary's (CA) ace on Paulina Baillie
Set 4 · UCSD 8-7 STMARY · STMARY 19% → 23%
- 05Ireland McNeesKill+3.8%
Kill by Ireland McNees (set by Brynne McGhie)
Set 4 · UCSD 8-5 STMARY · UCSD 80% → 84%
- 06
- 07UC San DiegoAce+3.8%
UC San Diego ace on Layne Dent
Set 4 · UCSD 5-5 STMARY · UCSD 68% → 72%
- 08Saint Mary's (CA)Ace+3.7%
Saint Mary's (CA) ace on Molly McCluskey
Set 4 · UCSD 3-4 STMARY · STMARY 27% → 31%
Box score
Official NCAA box
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 12 | 3 | 28 | .321 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2.5 | 19.5 | |
| 4 | 11 | 5 | 28 | .214 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | |
| 4 | 12 | 4 | 30 | .267 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 12.5 | |
| 4 | 9 | 0 | 17 | .529 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | |
| 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | .222 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | .750 | 37 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -.143 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team totals | 52 | 16 | 123 | .293 | 48 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 95 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 8 | 4 | 18 | .222 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | |
| 4 | 10 | 5 | 22 | .227 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 10.5 | |
| 4 | 9 | 7 | 29 | .069 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | |
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 16 | .063 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 8.5 | |
| 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -.500 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 | 6 | 2 | 16 | .250 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 12 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team totals | 43 | 26 | 119 | .143 | 38 | 7 | 8 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 81 |
Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Momentum
Point differential by rally
Set 1
20-25
Set 2
25-22
Set 3
25-15
Set 4
25-19
Bars above the line = Saint Mary's (CA) leads, below = UC San Diego leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Rotations
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
UC San Diego
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53%10/19 | 43%6/14 |
| 2 | 56%9/16 | 62%16/26 |
| 3 | 80%8/10 | 62%13/21 |
| 4 | 44%8/18 | 20%2/10 |
| 5 | 70%7/10 | 53%8/15 |
| 6 | 67%6/9 | 25%2/8 |
| All | 59%48/82 | 50%47/94 |
Saint Mary's (CA)
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48%10/21 | 20%2/10 |
| 2 | 36%8/22 | 50%9/18 |
| 3 | 50%8/16 | 43%6/14 |
| 4 | 67%8/12 | 43%6/14 |
| 5 | 47%7/15 | 43%6/14 |
| 6 | 75%6/8 | 42%5/12 |
| All | 50%47/94 | 41%34/82 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
Rally log
176 rallies
| # | UCSD-STMARY | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Katelyn Hernandez | set Brynne McGhie | +1.8 |
| 2 | 1-1 | UCSD | STMARY | Serve err | UC San Diego | +1.8 | |
| 3 | 2-1 | STMARY | UCSD | Serve err | Saint Mary's (CA) | +1.9 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Anaya Thrower | set Sadie White | +1.9 |
| 5 | 2-3 | STMARY | STMARY | Kill | Layne Dent | set Alayna Pearson | +2.6 |
| 6 | 3-3 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Katelyn Hernandez | set Brynne McGhie | +1.9 |
| 7 | 3-4 | UCSD | STMARY | Blocked | Madison Johnson | blk Anaya Thrower, Caroline Formankova | +1.9 |
| 8 | 4-4 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Madison Johnson | set Brynne McGhie | +1.9 |
| 9 | 5-4 | UCSD | UCSD | Attack err | Antonie Kelnárová | +2.7 | |
| 10 | 5-5 | UCSD | STMARY | Serve err | UC San Diego | +2.0 | |
| 11 | 5-6 | STMARY | STMARY | Blocked | Madison Johnson | blk Layne Dent | +2.7 |
| 12 | 6-6 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Madison Johnson | set Brynne McGhie | +2.0 |
| 13 | 6-7 | UCSD | STMARY | Serve err | UC San Diego | +2.1 | |
| 14 | 6-8 | STMARY | STMARY | Kill | Makenzie Jackson | +2.8 | |
| 15 | 7-8 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Yasemin Elmas | set Brynne McGhie | +2.0 |
| 16 | 8-8 | UCSD | UCSD | Blocked | Makenzie Jackson | blk Yasemin Elmas | +2.9 |
| 17 | 8-9 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Makenzie Jackson | set Sadie White | +2.2 |
| 18 | 8-10 | STMARY | STMARY | Blocked | Katelyn Hernandez | blk Ava Galvan, Makenzie Jackson | +2.9 |
| 19 | 9-10 | STMARY | UCSD×3 | Kill | Molly McCluskey | set Brynne McGhie | +2.1 |
| 20 | 10-10 | UCSD | UCSD×3 | Attack err | Makenzie Jackson | +3.1 | |
| 21 | 11-10 | UCSD | UCSD×3 | Kill | Lucia Barroso | set Brynne McGhie | +3.2 |
| 22 | 11-11 | UCSD | STMARY | Serve err | UC San Diego | +2.4 | |
| 23 | 11-12 | STMARY | STMARY | Kill | Makenzie Jackson | set Antonie Kelnárová | +3.3 |
| 24 | 12-12 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Brynne McGhie | set Brynne McGhie | +2.5 |
| 25 | 12-13 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Caroline Formankova | set Sadie White | +2.5 |
| 26 | 13-13 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Katelyn Hernandez | set Molly McCluskey | +2.5 |
| 27 | 13-14 | UCSD | STMARY×4 | Kill | Anaya Thrower | set Caroline Formankova | +2.6 |
| 28 | 13-15 | STMARY | STMARY×4 | Ace | Saint Mary's (CA) | aced Dillyn Griffin | +3.5 |
| 29 | 13-16 | STMARY | STMARY×4 | Blocked | Madison Johnson | blk Anaya Thrower, Layne Dent | +3.2 |
| 30 | 13-17 | STMARY | STMARY×4 | Ace | Saint Mary's (CA) | aced Dillyn Griffin | +2.7 |
| 31 | 14-17 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Lucia Barroso | set Brynne McGhie | +1.6 |
| 32 | 14-18 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Antonie Kelnárová | set Caitlin Prior | +2.1 |
| 33 | 15-18 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Yasemin Elmas | set Brynne McGhie | +1.6 |
| 34 | 16-18 | UCSD | UCSD | Kill | Molly McCluskey | set Madison Johnson | +2.9 |
| 35 | 16-19 | UCSD | STMARY×3 | Kill | Layne Dent | set Caitlin Prior | +2.7 |
| 36 | 16-20 | STMARY | STMARY×3 | Blocked | Yasemin Elmas | blk Ava Galvan | +2.9 |
| 37 | 16-21 | STMARY | STMARY×3 | Kill | Ava Galvan | +2.0 | |
| 38 | 17-21 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Molly McCluskey | set Brynne McGhie | +0.8 |
| 39 | 17-22 | UCSD | STMARY | Serve err | UC San Diego | +1.3 | |
| 40 | 17-23 | STMARY | STMARY | Attack err | Katelyn Hernandez | +0.9 | |
| 41 | 18-23 | STMARY | UCSD×3 | Serve err | Saint Mary's (CA) | +0.2 | |
| 42 | 19-23 | UCSD | UCSD×3 | Attack err | Ava Galvan | +0.6 | |
| 43 | 20-23 | UCSD | UCSD×3 | Attack err | Caroline Formankova | +1.3 | |
| 44 | 20-24 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Makenzie Jackson | set Sadie White | +1.8 |
| 45 | 20-25 | STMARY | STMARY | Kill | Anaya Thrower | set Sadie White | +0.7 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | UCSD | UCSD | Kill | Brynne McGhie | set Paulina Baillie | +2.4 |
| 2 | 1-1 | UCSD | STMARY×4 | Kill | Makenzie Jackson | set Sadie White | +1.7 |
| 3 | 1-2 | STMARY | STMARY×4 | Attack err | Katelyn Hernandez | +2.4 | |
| 4 | 1-3 | STMARY | STMARY×4 | Blocked | Molly McCluskey | blk Caroline Formankova | +2.3 |
| 5 | 1-4 | STMARY | STMARY×4 | Kill | Anaya Thrower | +2.2 | |
| 6 | 2-4 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Molly McCluskey | set Brynne McGhie | +1.6 |
| 7 | 3-4 | UCSD | UCSD | Ace | UC San Diego | aced Caroline Formankova | +2.3 |
| 8 | 3-5 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Anaya Thrower | set Sadie White | +1.8 |
| 9 | 4-5 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Katelyn Hernandez | set Ireland McNees | +1.8 |
| 10 | 5-5 | UCSD | UCSD | Kill | Katelyn Hernandez | set Paulina Baillie | +2.5 |
| 11 | 5-6 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Caroline Formankova | set Caitlin Prior | +1.9 |
| 12 | 6-6 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Lucia Barroso | set Brynne McGhie | +1.9 |
| 13 | 6-7 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Anaya Thrower | set Caitlin Prior | +2.0 |
| 14 | 7-7 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Lucia Barroso | set Brynne McGhie | +2.0 |
| 15 | 7-8 | UCSD | STMARY | Serve err | UC San Diego | +2.0 | |
| 16 | 8-8 | STMARY | UCSD | Blocked | Makenzie Jackson | blk Ireland McNees | +2.0 |
| 17 | 8-9 | UCSD | STMARY | Serve err | UC San Diego | +2.1 | |
| 18 | 9-9 | STMARY | UCSD | Serve err | Saint Mary's (CA) | +2.1 | |
| 19 | 10-9 | UCSD | UCSD | Kill | Katelyn Hernandez | set Brynne McGhie | +3.0 |
| 20 | 10-10 | UCSD | STMARY×5 | Kill | Caroline Formankova | set Sadie White | +2.2 |
| 21 | 10-11 | STMARY | STMARY×5 | Blocked | Molly McCluskey | blk Anaya Thrower | +3.0 |
| 22 | 10-12 | STMARY | STMARY×5 | Kill | Caroline Formankova | set Sadie White | +3.0 |
| 23 | 10-13 | STMARY | STMARY×5 | Kill | Anaya Thrower | set Sadie White | +2.8 |
| 24 | 10-14 | STMARY | STMARY×5 | Kill | Caroline Formankova | set Sadie White | +2.4 |
| 25 | 11-14 | STMARY | UCSD×8 | Kill | Molly McCluskey | set Brynne McGhie | +1.5 |
| 26 | 12-14 | UCSD | UCSD×8 | Ace | UC San Diego | aced Antonie Kelnárová | +2.5 |
| 27 | 13-14 | UCSD | UCSD×8 | Kill | Lucia Barroso | +3.0 | |
| 28 | 14-14 | UCSD | UCSD×8 | Attack err | Makenzie Jackson | +3.4 | |
| 29 | 15-14 | UCSD | UCSD×8 | Blocked | Anaya Thrower | blk Molly McCluskey | +3.6 |
| 30 | 16-14 | UCSD | UCSD×8 | Attack err | Antonie Kelnárová | +3.6 | |
| 31 | 17-14 | UCSD | UCSD×8 | Kill | Katelyn Hernandez | +3.4 | |
| 32 | 18-14 | UCSD | UCSD×8 | Kill | Molly McCluskey | set Katelyn Hernandez | +2.9 |
| 33 | 18-15 | UCSD | STMARY | Serve err | UC San Diego | +1.6 | |
| 34 | 19-15 | STMARY | UCSD×3 | Serve err | Saint Mary's (CA) | +2.2 | |
| 35 | 20-15 | UCSD | UCSD×3 | Attack err | Anaya Thrower | +2.2 | |
| 36 | 21-15 | UCSD | UCSD×3 | Ace | UC San Diego | aced Caroline Formankova | +1.4 |
| 37 | 21-16 | UCSD | STMARY | Serve err | UC San Diego | +0.5 | |
| 38 | 22-16 | STMARY | UCSD×3 | Serve err | Saint Mary's (CA) | +0.9 | |
| 39 | 23-16 | UCSD | UCSD×3 | Kill | Ireland McNees | set Brynne McGhie | +0.6 |
| 40 | 24-16 | UCSD | UCSD×3 | Kill | Ireland McNees | set Brynne McGhie | +0.2 |
| 41 | 24-17 | UCSD | STMARY×6 | Serve err | UC San Diego | · | |
| 42 | 24-18 | STMARY | STMARY×6 | Ace | Saint Mary's (CA) | aced Paulina Baillie | +0.1 |
| 43 | 24-19 | STMARY | STMARY×6 | Blocked | Ireland McNees | blk Layne Dent, Ava Galvan | +0.1 |
| 44 | 24-20 | STMARY | STMARY×6 | Ace | Saint Mary's (CA) | aced Paulina Baillie | +0.3 |
| 45 | 24-21 | STMARY | STMARY×6 | Attack err | Ireland McNees | +0.8 | |
| 46 | 24-22 | STMARY | STMARY×6 | Kill | Ava Galvan | +1.8 | |
| 47 | 25-22 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Ireland McNees | set Brynne McGhie | +3.1 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | STMARY | UCSD×3 | Kill | Molly McCluskey | set Ireland McNees | +2.5 |
| 2 | 2-0 | UCSD | UCSD×3 | Blocked | Caroline Formankova | blk Molly McCluskey, Lucia Barroso | +3.4 |
| 3 | 3-0 | UCSD | UCSD×3 | Blocked | Caroline Formankova | blk Lucia Barroso, Molly McCluskey | +3.3 |
| 4 | 3-1 | UCSD | STMARY | Serve err | UC San Diego | +2.3 | |
| 5 | 4-1 | STMARY | UCSD×3 | Kill | Molly McCluskey | set Brynne McGhie | +2.5 |
| 6 | 5-1 | UCSD | UCSD×3 | Ace | UC San Diego | aced Antonie Kelnárová | +3.2 |
| 7 | 6-1 | UCSD | UCSD×3 | Attack err | Anaya Thrower | +2.9 | |
| 8 | 6-2 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Makenzie Jackson | set Antonie Kelnárová | +1.9 |
| 9 | 7-2 | STMARY | UCSD | Serve err | Saint Mary's (CA) | +2.2 | |
| 10 | 7-3 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Antonie Kelnárová | set Layne Dent | +1.9 |
| 11 | 7-4 | STMARY | STMARY | Blocked | Ireland McNees | blk Anaya Thrower, Layne Dent | +2.9 |
| 12 | 8-4 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Ireland McNees | set Brynne McGhie | +2.5 |
| 13 | 8-5 | UCSD | STMARY | Blocked | Ireland McNees | blk Anaya Thrower, Layne Dent | +2.2 |
| 14 | 9-5 | STMARY | UCSD | Serve err | Saint Mary's (CA) | +2.5 | |
| 15 | 10-5 | UCSD | UCSD | Attack err | Antonie Kelnárová | +3.0 | |
| 16 | 10-6 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Ava Galvan | set Caitlin Prior | +1.9 |
| 17 | 11-6 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Ireland McNees | set Brynne McGhie | +2.3 |
| 18 | 12-6 | UCSD | UCSD | Ace | UC San Diego | aced Caroline Formankova | +2.6 |
| 19 | 12-7 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Antonie Kelnárová | set Sadie White | +1.5 |
| 20 | 13-7 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Katelyn Hernandez | set Brynne McGhie | +1.9 |
| 21 | 14-7 | UCSD | UCSD | Blocked | Caroline Formankova | blk Molly McCluskey, Lucia Barroso | +2.0 |
| 22 | 14-8 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Antonie Kelnárová | set Sadie White | +1.1 |
| 23 | 15-8 | STMARY | UCSD | Attack err | Antonie Kelnárová | +1.5 | |
| 24 | 16-8 | UCSD | UCSD | Attack err | Anaya Thrower | +1.4 | |
| 25 | 16-9 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Makenzie Jackson | set Sadie White | +0.7 |
| 26 | 17-9 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Katelyn Hernandez | set Brynne McGhie | +1.0 |
| 27 | 17-10 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Layne Dent | set Caitlin Prior | +0.6 |
| 28 | 17-11 | STMARY | STMARY | Attack err | Molly McCluskey | +1.2 | |
| 29 | 18-11 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Brynne McGhie | set Paulina Baillie | +1.3 |
| 30 | 19-11 | UCSD | UCSD | Kill | Ireland McNees | set Brynne McGhie | +1.1 |
| 31 | 19-12 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Antonie Kelnárová | set Caitlin Prior | +0.4 |
| 32 | 20-12 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Molly McCluskey | set Brynne McGhie | +0.7 |
| 33 | 20-13 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Layne Dent | set Caitlin Prior | +0.3 |
| 34 | 21-13 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Molly McCluskey | set Brynne McGhie | +0.6 |
| 35 | 21-14 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Ava Galvan | set Sadie White | +0.2 |
| 36 | 22-14 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Molly McCluskey | set Brynne McGhie | +0.4 |
| 37 | 22-15 | UCSD | STMARY | Serve err | UC San Diego | +0.2 | |
| 38 | 23-15 | STMARY | UCSD×3 | Kill | Lucia Barroso | set Brynne McGhie | +0.3 |
| 39 | 24-15 | UCSD | UCSD×3 | Kill | Katelyn Hernandez | set Ireland McNees | +0.1 |
| 40 | 25-15 | UCSD | UCSD×3 | Attack err | Sadie White | · | |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | UCSD | UCSD | Attack err | Ava Galvan | +3.5 | |
| 2 | 1-1 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Antonie Kelnárová | set Caitlin Prior | +2.6 |
| 3 | 2-1 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Katelyn Hernandez | set Brynne McGhie | +2.7 |
| 4 | 3-1 | UCSD | UCSD | Kill | Ireland McNees | set Brynne McGhie | +3.6 |
| 5 | 3-2 | UCSD | STMARY×4 | Kill | Antonie Kelnárová | set Caitlin Prior | +2.6 |
| 6 | 3-3 | STMARY | STMARY×4 | Kill | Makenzie Jackson | set Molly McCluskey | +3.6 |
| 7 | 3-4 | STMARY | STMARY×4 | Ace | Saint Mary's (CA) | aced Molly McCluskey | +3.7 |
| 8 | 3-5 | STMARY | STMARY×4 | Ace | Saint Mary's (CA) | aced Paulina Baillie | +3.6 |
| 9 | 4-5 | STMARY | UCSD×5 | Blocked | Makenzie Jackson | blk Katelyn Hernandez, Lucia Barroso | +2.6 |
| 10 | 5-5 | UCSD | UCSD×5 | Ace | UC San Diego | aced Layne Dent | +3.8 |
| 11 | 6-5 | UCSD | UCSD×5 | Ace | UC San Diego | aced Layne Dent | +3.9 |
| 12 | 7-5 | UCSD | UCSD×5 | Kill | Lucia Barroso | set Brynne McGhie | +4.0 |
| 13 | 8-5 | UCSD | UCSD×5 | Kill | Ireland McNees | set Brynne McGhie | +3.8 |
| 14 | 8-6 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Anaya Thrower | set Sadie White | +2.6 |
| 15 | 8-7 | STMARY | STMARY | Ace | Saint Mary's (CA) | aced Paulina Baillie | +3.9 |
| 16 | 9-7 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Katelyn Hernandez | set Brynne McGhie | +3.1 |
| 17 | 9-8 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Layne Dent | set Sadie White | +2.9 |
| 18 | 10-8 | STMARY | UCSD×6 | Kill | Lucia Barroso | set Brynne McGhie | +3.2 |
| 19 | 11-8 | UCSD | UCSD×6 | Ace | UC San Diego | aced Layne Dent | +4.1 |
| 20 | 12-8 | UCSD | UCSD×6 | Blocked | Layne Dent | blk Yasemin Elmas | +3.8 |
| 21 | 13-8 | UCSD | UCSD×6 | Kill | Ireland McNees | set Dillyn Griffin | +3.3 |
| 22 | 14-8 | UCSD | UCSD×6 | Attack err | Layne Dent | +2.7 | |
| 23 | 15-8 | UCSD | UCSD×6 | Attack err | Lainey Day | +2.1 | |
| 24 | 15-9 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Antonie Kelnárová | set Sadie White | +1.1 |
| 25 | 15-10 | STMARY | STMARY | Kill | Layne Dent | set Caitlin Prior | +2.0 |
| 26 | 16-10 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Ireland McNees | set Dillyn Griffin | +2.0 |
| 27 | 16-11 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Lainey Day | set Caitlin Prior | +1.4 |
| 28 | 17-11 | STMARY | UCSD | Attack err | Antonie Kelnárová | +1.9 | |
| 29 | 18-11 | UCSD | UCSD | Kill | Molly McCluskey | set Ireland McNees | +1.8 |
| 30 | 18-12 | UCSD | STMARY | Serve err | UC San Diego | +0.8 | |
| 31 | 19-12 | STMARY | UCSD | Attack err | Antonie Kelnárová | +1.2 | |
| 32 | 19-13 | UCSD | STMARY×3 | Serve err | UC San Diego | +0.7 | |
| 33 | 19-14 | STMARY | STMARY×3 | Kill | Makenzie Jackson | set Sadie White | +1.5 |
| 34 | 19-15 | STMARY | STMARY×3 | Attack err | Katelyn Hernandez | +2.2 | |
| 35 | 20-15 | STMARY | UCSD | Blocked | Antonie Kelnárová | blk Lucia Barroso | +2.4 |
| 36 | 21-15 | UCSD | UCSD | Ace | UC San Diego | aced Layne Dent | +2.1 |
| 37 | 21-16 | UCSD | STMARY | Serve err | UC San Diego | +0.8 | |
| 38 | 22-16 | STMARY | UCSD | Serve err | Saint Mary's (CA) | +1.3 | |
| 39 | 22-17 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Antonie Kelnárová | set Sadie White | +0.6 |
| 40 | 23-17 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Lucia Barroso | set Brynne McGhie | +1.1 |
| 41 | 24-17 | UCSD | UCSD | Kill | Ireland McNees | set Brynne McGhie | +0.5 |
| 42 | 24-18 | UCSD | STMARY | Kill | Makenzie Jackson | set Sadie White | +0.1 |
| 43 | 24-19 | STMARY | STMARY | Attack err | Ireland McNees | +0.2 | |
| 44 | 25-19 | STMARY | UCSD | Kill | Yasemin Elmas | set Brynne McGhie | +0.4 |
Score shown after each rally, UC San Diego first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).