Final · 4 setsFri, Aug 28, 2026

UC San Diego def. Saint Mary's (CA) 3–1

UC San Diego won at Saint Mary's (CA) 3-1 (20-25, 25-22, 25-15, 25-19) on Fri, Aug 28, 2026. UC San Diego's Molly McCluskey and Katelyn Hernandez led with 12 kills each, and Paulina Baillie added 13 digs.

Data through · final Aug 28

Set1234Sets
UCSD202525253
STMARY252215191

Win probability

Saint Mary's (CA) above 50 · UC San Diego below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+4.1% UCSDrally 176 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.1% to UC San Diego — set 4, UCSD 11-8 STMARY. UC San Diego ace on Layne Dent. STMARY win probability 19% → 15%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UCSD 44.6%55.4% STMARY

UC San Diego wins

3-0
10.4%
3-1
16.5%
3-2
17.7%

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0
14.9%
3-1
21.0%
3-2
19.5%
UCSD break %
42.0% vs this opp
STMARY break %
43.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    UC San DiegoAce+4.1%

    UC San Diego ace on Layne Dent

    Set 4 · UCSD 11-8 STMARY · UCSD 81% → 85%

  2. 02
    Lucia BarrosoKill+4.0%

    Kill by Lucia Barroso (set by Brynne McGhie)

    Set 4 · UCSD 7-5 STMARY · UCSD 76% → 80%

  3. 03
    UC San DiegoAce+3.9%

    UC San Diego ace on Layne Dent

    Set 4 · UCSD 6-5 STMARY · UCSD 72% → 76%

  4. 04
    Saint Mary's (CA)Ace+3.9%

    Saint Mary's (CA) ace on Paulina Baillie

    Set 4 · UCSD 8-7 STMARY · STMARY 19% → 23%

  5. 05

    Kill by Ireland McNees (set by Brynne McGhie)

    Set 4 · UCSD 8-5 STMARY · UCSD 80% → 84%

  6. 06
    Yasemin ElmasBlock+3.8%

    Layne Dent stuffed by Yasemin Elmas

    Set 4 · UCSD 12-8 STMARY · UCSD 85% → 88%

  7. 07
    UC San DiegoAce+3.8%

    UC San Diego ace on Layne Dent

    Set 4 · UCSD 5-5 STMARY · UCSD 68% → 72%

  8. 08
    Saint Mary's (CA)Ace+3.7%

    Saint Mary's (CA) ace on Molly McCluskey

    Set 4 · UCSD 3-4 STMARY · STMARY 27% → 31%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412328.321152121132.519.5
411528.2144123010113
412430.26710020010.512.5
49017.5290021014312
4319.222000002025
4304.7503702900003
4000–2261340002
4000–201320000
2000–010100001
1237-.143100000002
Team totals5216123.2934891544758995
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
48418.2220210014313
410522.22700010010.510.5
49729.0692137200010
45416.06312133111.58.5
4428.250000001226
4012-.5002120500002
46216.250100641439
4000–1011100000
4000–1202200000
3000–000100000
2004.000000200000
1114.000000000001
Team totals4326119.14338783894121081

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 UCSD · STMARY 6

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 3 UCSDSTMARY 4

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 8 UCSDSTMARY 6

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 3 UCSDSTMARY 2

Set 4

25-19

Longest run 6 UCSDSTMARY 4

Bars above the line = Saint Mary's (CA) leads, below = UC San Diego leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UC San Diego

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%10/19
43%6/14
2
56%9/16
62%16/26
3
80%8/10
62%13/21
4
44%8/18
20%2/10
5
70%7/10
53%8/15
6
67%6/9
25%2/8
All
59%48/82
50%47/94

Saint Mary's (CA)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%10/21
20%2/10
2
36%8/22
50%9/18
3
50%8/16
43%6/14
4
67%8/12
43%6/14
5
47%7/15
43%6/14
6
75%6/8
42%5/12
All
50%47/94
41%34/82

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

176 rallies

#UCSD-STMARYSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0STMARYUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Brynne McGhie+1.8
21-1UCSDSTMARYServe errUC San Diego+1.8
32-1STMARYUCSDServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.9
42-2UCSDSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+1.9
52-3STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Alayna Pearson+2.6
63-3STMARYUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Brynne McGhie+1.9
73-4UCSDSTMARYBlockedMadison Johnsonblk Anaya Thrower, Caroline Formankova+1.9
84-4STMARYUCSDKillMadison Johnsonset Brynne McGhie+1.9
95-4UCSDUCSDAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+2.7
105-5UCSDSTMARYServe errUC San Diego+2.0
115-6STMARYSTMARYBlockedMadison Johnsonblk Layne Dent+2.7
126-6STMARYUCSDKillMadison Johnsonset Brynne McGhie+2.0
136-7UCSDSTMARYServe errUC San Diego+2.1
146-8STMARYSTMARYKillMakenzie Jackson+2.8
157-8STMARYUCSDKillYasemin Elmasset Brynne McGhie+2.0
168-8UCSDUCSDBlockedMakenzie Jacksonblk Yasemin Elmas+2.9
178-9UCSDSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+2.2
188-10STMARYSTMARYBlockedKatelyn Hernandezblk Ava Galvan, Makenzie Jackson+2.9
199-10STMARYUCSD×3KillMolly McCluskeyset Brynne McGhie+2.1
2010-10UCSDUCSD×3Attack errMakenzie Jackson+3.1
2111-10UCSDUCSD×3KillLucia Barrososet Brynne McGhie+3.2
2211-11UCSDSTMARYServe errUC San Diego+2.4
2311-12STMARYSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Antonie Kelnárová+3.3
2412-12STMARYUCSDKillBrynne McGhieset Brynne McGhie+2.5
2512-13UCSDSTMARYKillCaroline Formankovaset Sadie White+2.5
2613-13STMARYUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Molly McCluskey+2.5
2713-14UCSDSTMARY×4KillAnaya Throwerset Caroline Formankova+2.6
2813-15STMARYSTMARY×4AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Dillyn Griffin+3.5
2913-16STMARYSTMARY×4BlockedMadison Johnsonblk Anaya Thrower, Layne Dent+3.2
3013-17STMARYSTMARY×4AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Dillyn Griffin+2.7
3114-17STMARYUCSDKillLucia Barrososet Brynne McGhie+1.6
3214-18UCSDSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.1
3315-18STMARYUCSDKillYasemin Elmasset Brynne McGhie+1.6
3416-18UCSDUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Madison Johnson+2.9
3516-19UCSDSTMARY×3KillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.7
3616-20STMARYSTMARY×3BlockedYasemin Elmasblk Ava Galvan+2.9
3716-21STMARYSTMARY×3KillAva Galvan+2.0
3817-21STMARYUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Brynne McGhie+0.8
3917-22UCSDSTMARYServe errUC San Diego+1.3
4017-23STMARYSTMARYAttack errKatelyn Hernandez+0.9
4118-23STMARYUCSD×3Serve errSaint Mary's (CA)+0.2
4219-23UCSDUCSD×3Attack errAva Galvan+0.6
4320-23UCSDUCSD×3Attack errCaroline Formankova+1.3
4420-24UCSDSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+1.8
4520-25STMARYSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+0.7
Set 2
11-0UCSDUCSDKillBrynne McGhieset Paulina Baillie+2.4
21-1UCSDSTMARY×4KillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+1.7
31-2STMARYSTMARY×4Attack errKatelyn Hernandez+2.4
41-3STMARYSTMARY×4BlockedMolly McCluskeyblk Caroline Formankova+2.3
51-4STMARYSTMARY×4KillAnaya Thrower+2.2
62-4STMARYUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Brynne McGhie+1.6
73-4UCSDUCSDAceUC San Diegoaced Caroline Formankova+2.3
83-5UCSDSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+1.8
94-5STMARYUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Ireland McNees+1.8
105-5UCSDUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Paulina Baillie+2.5
115-6UCSDSTMARYKillCaroline Formankovaset Caitlin Prior+1.9
126-6STMARYUCSDKillLucia Barrososet Brynne McGhie+1.9
136-7UCSDSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Caitlin Prior+2.0
147-7STMARYUCSDKillLucia Barrososet Brynne McGhie+2.0
157-8UCSDSTMARYServe errUC San Diego+2.0
168-8STMARYUCSDBlockedMakenzie Jacksonblk Ireland McNees+2.0
178-9UCSDSTMARYServe errUC San Diego+2.1
189-9STMARYUCSDServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.1
1910-9UCSDUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Brynne McGhie+3.0
2010-10UCSDSTMARY×5KillCaroline Formankovaset Sadie White+2.2
2110-11STMARYSTMARY×5BlockedMolly McCluskeyblk Anaya Thrower+3.0
2210-12STMARYSTMARY×5KillCaroline Formankovaset Sadie White+3.0
2310-13STMARYSTMARY×5KillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+2.8
2410-14STMARYSTMARY×5KillCaroline Formankovaset Sadie White+2.4
2511-14STMARYUCSD×8KillMolly McCluskeyset Brynne McGhie+1.5
2612-14UCSDUCSD×8AceUC San Diegoaced Antonie Kelnárová+2.5
2713-14UCSDUCSD×8KillLucia Barroso+3.0
2814-14UCSDUCSD×8Attack errMakenzie Jackson+3.4
2915-14UCSDUCSD×8BlockedAnaya Throwerblk Molly McCluskey+3.6
3016-14UCSDUCSD×8Attack errAntonie Kelnárová+3.6
3117-14UCSDUCSD×8KillKatelyn Hernandez+3.4
3218-14UCSDUCSD×8KillMolly McCluskeyset Katelyn Hernandez+2.9
3318-15UCSDSTMARYServe errUC San Diego+1.6
3419-15STMARYUCSD×3Serve errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.2
3520-15UCSDUCSD×3Attack errAnaya Thrower+2.2
3621-15UCSDUCSD×3AceUC San Diegoaced Caroline Formankova+1.4
3721-16UCSDSTMARYServe errUC San Diego+0.5
3822-16STMARYUCSD×3Serve errSaint Mary's (CA)+0.9
3923-16UCSDUCSD×3KillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+0.6
4024-16UCSDUCSD×3KillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+0.2
4124-17UCSDSTMARY×6Serve errUC San Diego·
4224-18STMARYSTMARY×6AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Paulina Baillie+0.1
4324-19STMARYSTMARY×6BlockedIreland McNeesblk Layne Dent, Ava Galvan+0.1
4424-20STMARYSTMARY×6AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Paulina Baillie+0.3
4524-21STMARYSTMARY×6Attack errIreland McNees+0.8
4624-22STMARYSTMARY×6KillAva Galvan+1.8
4725-22STMARYUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+3.1
Set 3
11-0STMARYUCSD×3KillMolly McCluskeyset Ireland McNees+2.5
22-0UCSDUCSD×3BlockedCaroline Formankovablk Molly McCluskey, Lucia Barroso+3.4
33-0UCSDUCSD×3BlockedCaroline Formankovablk Lucia Barroso, Molly McCluskey+3.3
43-1UCSDSTMARYServe errUC San Diego+2.3
54-1STMARYUCSD×3KillMolly McCluskeyset Brynne McGhie+2.5
65-1UCSDUCSD×3AceUC San Diegoaced Antonie Kelnárová+3.2
76-1UCSDUCSD×3Attack errAnaya Thrower+2.9
86-2UCSDSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Antonie Kelnárová+1.9
97-2STMARYUCSDServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.2
107-3UCSDSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Layne Dent+1.9
117-4STMARYSTMARYBlockedIreland McNeesblk Anaya Thrower, Layne Dent+2.9
128-4STMARYUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+2.5
138-5UCSDSTMARYBlockedIreland McNeesblk Anaya Thrower, Layne Dent+2.2
149-5STMARYUCSDServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.5
1510-5UCSDUCSDAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+3.0
1610-6UCSDSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Caitlin Prior+1.9
1711-6STMARYUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+2.3
1812-6UCSDUCSDAceUC San Diegoaced Caroline Formankova+2.6
1912-7UCSDSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.5
2013-7STMARYUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Brynne McGhie+1.9
2114-7UCSDUCSDBlockedCaroline Formankovablk Molly McCluskey, Lucia Barroso+2.0
2214-8UCSDSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.1
2315-8STMARYUCSDAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+1.5
2416-8UCSDUCSDAttack errAnaya Thrower+1.4
2516-9UCSDSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+0.7
2617-9STMARYUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Brynne McGhie+1.0
2717-10UCSDSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+0.6
2817-11STMARYSTMARYAttack errMolly McCluskey+1.2
2918-11STMARYUCSDKillBrynne McGhieset Paulina Baillie+1.3
3019-11UCSDUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+1.1
3119-12UCSDSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+0.4
3220-12STMARYUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Brynne McGhie+0.7
3320-13UCSDSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+0.3
3421-13STMARYUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Brynne McGhie+0.6
3521-14UCSDSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+0.2
3622-14STMARYUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Brynne McGhie+0.4
3722-15UCSDSTMARYServe errUC San Diego+0.2
3823-15STMARYUCSD×3KillLucia Barrososet Brynne McGhie+0.3
3924-15UCSDUCSD×3KillKatelyn Hernandezset Ireland McNees+0.1
4025-15UCSDUCSD×3Attack errSadie White·
Set 4
11-0UCSDUCSDAttack errAva Galvan+3.5
21-1UCSDSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.6
32-1STMARYUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Brynne McGhie+2.7
43-1UCSDUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+3.6
53-2UCSDSTMARY×4KillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.6
63-3STMARYSTMARY×4KillMakenzie Jacksonset Molly McCluskey+3.6
73-4STMARYSTMARY×4AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Molly McCluskey+3.7
83-5STMARYSTMARY×4AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Paulina Baillie+3.6
94-5STMARYUCSD×5BlockedMakenzie Jacksonblk Katelyn Hernandez, Lucia Barroso+2.6
105-5UCSDUCSD×5AceUC San Diegoaced Layne Dent+3.8
116-5UCSDUCSD×5AceUC San Diegoaced Layne Dent+3.9
127-5UCSDUCSD×5KillLucia Barrososet Brynne McGhie+4.0
138-5UCSDUCSD×5KillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+3.8
148-6UCSDSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+2.6
158-7STMARYSTMARYAceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Paulina Baillie+3.9
169-7STMARYUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Brynne McGhie+3.1
179-8UCSDSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+2.9
1810-8STMARYUCSD×6KillLucia Barrososet Brynne McGhie+3.2
1911-8UCSDUCSD×6AceUC San Diegoaced Layne Dent+4.1
2012-8UCSDUCSD×6BlockedLayne Dentblk Yasemin Elmas+3.8
2113-8UCSDUCSD×6KillIreland McNeesset Dillyn Griffin+3.3
2214-8UCSDUCSD×6Attack errLayne Dent+2.7
2315-8UCSDUCSD×6Attack errLainey Day+2.1
2415-9UCSDSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.1
2515-10STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Caitlin Prior+2.0
2616-10STMARYUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Dillyn Griffin+2.0
2716-11UCSDSTMARYKillLainey Dayset Caitlin Prior+1.4
2817-11STMARYUCSDAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+1.9
2918-11UCSDUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Ireland McNees+1.8
3018-12UCSDSTMARYServe errUC San Diego+0.8
3119-12STMARYUCSDAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+1.2
3219-13UCSDSTMARY×3Serve errUC San Diego+0.7
3319-14STMARYSTMARY×3KillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+1.5
3419-15STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errKatelyn Hernandez+2.2
3520-15STMARYUCSDBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Lucia Barroso+2.4
3621-15UCSDUCSDAceUC San Diegoaced Layne Dent+2.1
3721-16UCSDSTMARYServe errUC San Diego+0.8
3822-16STMARYUCSDServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.3
3922-17UCSDSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+0.6
4023-17STMARYUCSDKillLucia Barrososet Brynne McGhie+1.1
4124-17UCSDUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+0.5
4224-18UCSDSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+0.1
4324-19STMARYSTMARYAttack errIreland McNees+0.2
4425-19STMARYUCSDKillYasemin Elmasset Brynne McGhie+0.4

Score shown after each rally, UC San Diego first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).