FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayBIG-SKY

0:3

HomeWCC

Saint Mary's (CA) def. Southern Utah 3–0

(25-11, 25-17, 25-13)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
S UTAH	11	17	13	0
STMARY	25	25	25	3

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

STMARY above 50 · S UTAH below

Biggest swing: 0.3% to Southern Utah — set 2, S UTAH 13-10 STMARY. Attack error by Ava Galvan. STMARY win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

S UTAH 0.9%99.1% STMARY

Southern Utah wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.6%

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0

74.8%

3-1

20.7%

3-2

3.6%

S UTAH break %: 36.0% vs this opp
STMARY break %: 54.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ava GalvanAttack error+0.3%
Attack error by Ava Galvan
Set 2 · S UTAH 13-10 STMARY · S UTAH 1% → 1%
02
Makenzie JacksonAttack error+0.2%
Makenzie Jackson stuffed by Audrey Atwood & Molly Mitchell
Set 2 · S UTAH 10-7 STMARY · S UTAH 1% → 1%
03
Maya BanksAttack error+0.2%
Attack error by Maya Banks
Set 2 · S UTAH 13-12 STMARY · STMARY 99% → 99%
04
STMARY serverService error+0.2%
Saint Mary's (CA) service error
Set 2 · S UTAH 11-8 STMARY · S UTAH 1% → 1%
05
STMARY serverService error+0.2%
Saint Mary's (CA) service error
Set 2 · S UTAH 12-10 STMARY · S UTAH 1% → 1%
06
Caroline FormankovaAttack error+0.2%
Caroline Formankova stuffed by Maya Banks & Natalie Moore
Set 2 · S UTAH 14-13 STMARY · S UTAH 1% → 1%
07
STMARY serverAce+0.2%
Saint Mary's (CA) ace on Zorana Stankovska
Set 2 · S UTAH 13-13 STMARY · STMARY 99% → 99%
08
Cala CooperKill+0.2%
Kill by Cala Cooper (set by Talea Berry)
Set 2 · S UTAH 16-16 STMARY · S UTAH 1% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Southern Utahaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
12Natalie MooreMB	3	5	1	7	.571	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
7Molly MitchellMB	3	3	2	9	.111	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
2Audrey AtwoodOH	3	1	2	9	-.111	0	1	1	4	2	1	0.5	2.5
4Maya BanksOPP	3	1	4	8	-.375	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
17Celeste Uruena JensenS	3	0	0	0	–	6	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
8Emilia ZugOH	2	1	4	7	-.429	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
3Cala CooperOH	3	4	3	11	.091	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
19Talea BerryS	3	0	0	0	–	8	2	2	4	1	0	0	2
16Amanda MendozaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	0
10Zorana StankovskaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	0
5Kaitlyn HoelkerOH	2	3	1	9	.222	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3
9Ava Tiessen-RoodbolS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
14Kaitlyn BarnesL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		18	17	60	.017	16	4	9	15	12	4	2	41

Saint Mary's (CA)home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Antonie KelnárováOH	3	9	1	15	.533	1	3	6	0	0	1	0	1	13
10Ava GalvanMB	3	7	2	11	.455	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2.5	9.5
9Layne DentOH	3	5	1	12	.333	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	5
7Caroline FormankovaOPP	3	3	2	10	.100	1	1	0	5	1	0	0	0	4
21Sadie WhiteS	3	0	0	0	–	15	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
11Anaya ThrowerMB	1	2	0	2	1.000	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
4Makenzie JacksonOPP	3	8	2	11	.545	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	9.5
24Alayna PearsonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	4	0	4	1	0	0	0	4
22Caitlin PriorS	3	0	0	0	–	14	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	2
19Maddie WayMB	2	2	0	9	.222	0	2	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
12Natalie PeeteL/DS	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
13Lainey DayMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	8	71	.408	34	12	11	20	4	4	6	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 S UTAH · STMARY 7

Set 1

11-25

Longest run 2 S UTAHSTMARY 6

Set 2*

17-25

Longest run 2 S UTAHSTMARY 6

Set 3

13-25

Longest run 3 S UTAHSTMARY 7

Bars above the line = Saint Mary's (CA) leads, below = Southern Utah leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Southern Utah

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%4/8	20%1/5
2	27%4/15	33%2/6
3	40%4/10	20%1/5
4	30%3/10	20%1/5
5	67%2/3	0%0/3
6	100%2/2	0%0/2
All	40%19/48	19%5/26

Saint Mary's (CA)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%4/5	0%0/2
2	67%4/6	50%4/8
3	80%4/5	73%11/15
4	80%4/5	60%6/10
5	100%3/3	70%7/10
6	100%2/2	33%1/3
All	81%21/26	60%29/48

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

116 rallies

Rally log

#	S UTAH-STMARY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	S UTAH	S UTAH	Attack err	Ava Galvan		+0.2
2	1-1	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+0.1
3	1-2	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+0.1
4	2-2	STMARY	S UTAH	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.1
5	2-3	S UTAH	STMARY×3	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+0.1
6	2-4	STMARY	STMARY×3	Attack err	Maya Banks		+0.1
7	2-5	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+0.1
8	3-5	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Emilia Zug	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.1
9	3-6	S UTAH	STMARY	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.1
10	3-7	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Maya Banks		+0.1
11	4-7	STMARY	S UTAH	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.1
12	4-8	S UTAH	STMARY	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.1
13	4-9	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Caitlin Prior	+0.1
14	5-9	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Audrey Atwood		+0.0
15	5-10	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+0.0
16	5-11	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Natalie Moore	blk Ava Galvan	+0.0
17	6-11	STMARY	S UTAH	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.0
18	6-12	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+0.0
19	7-12	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Molly Mitchell	set Talea Berry	+0.0
20	7-13	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+0.0
21	8-13	STMARY	S UTAH	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.0
22	8-14	S UTAH	STMARY×4	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+0.0
23	8-15	STMARY	STMARY×4	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+0.0
24	8-16	STMARY	STMARY×4	Ace	STMARY server	aced Team	+0.0
25	8-17	STMARY	STMARY×4	Kill	Caroline Formankova	set Sadie White	+0.0
26	9-17	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Molly Mitchell	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.0
27	10-17	S UTAH	S UTAH	Ace	S UTAH server	aced Caroline Formankova	+0.0
28	10-18	S UTAH	STMARY×6	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Alayna Pearson	+0.0
29	10-19	STMARY	STMARY×6	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+0.0
30	10-20	STMARY	STMARY×6	Attack err	Maya Banks	blk Anaya Thrower	+0.0
31	10-21	STMARY	STMARY×6	Kill	Makenzie Jackson		+0.0
32	10-22	STMARY	STMARY×6	Ace	STMARY server	aced Audrey Atwood	+0.0
33	10-23	STMARY	STMARY×6	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Caitlin Prior	+0.0
34	11-23	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Maya Banks	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.0
35	11-24	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+0.0
36	11-25	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Emilia Zug	blk Anaya Thrower, Makenzie Jackson	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	STMARY	S UTAH	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+0.1
2	1-1	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+0.1
3	2-1	STMARY	S UTAH	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.1
4	3-1	S UTAH	S UTAH	Attack err	Caroline Formankova		+0.1
5	3-2	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+0.1
6	4-2	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Kaitlyn Hoelker	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.1
7	5-2	S UTAH	S UTAH	Ace	S UTAH server	aced Team	+0.2
8	5-3	S UTAH	STMARY	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
9	6-3	STMARY	S UTAH	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.2
10	6-4	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Alayna Pearson	+0.1
11	7-4	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Natalie Moore	set Talea Berry	+0.2
12	7-5	S UTAH	STMARY	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.1
13	8-5	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Cala Cooper	set Talea Berry	+0.2
14	8-6	S UTAH	STMARY	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.1
15	8-7	STMARY	STMARY	Ace	STMARY server	aced Amanda Mendoza	+0.2
16	9-7	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Cala Cooper	set Talea Berry	+0.2
17	10-7	S UTAH	S UTAH	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson	blk Audrey Atwood, Molly Mitchell	+0.2
18	10-8	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Caitlin Prior	+0.1
19	11-8	STMARY	S UTAH	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.2
20	11-9	S UTAH	STMARY	Attack err	Kaitlyn Hoelker	blk Antonie Kelnárová	+0.2
21	11-10	STMARY	STMARY	Ace	STMARY server	aced Team	+0.2
22	12-10	STMARY	S UTAH	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.2
23	13-10	S UTAH	S UTAH	Attack err	Ava Galvan		+0.3
24	13-11	S UTAH	STMARY×3	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+0.2
25	13-12	STMARY	STMARY×3	Attack err	Maya Banks		+0.2
26	13-13	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	STMARY server	aced Zorana Stankovska	+0.2
27	14-13	STMARY	S UTAH	Attack err	Caroline Formankova	blk Maya Banks, Natalie Moore	+0.2
28	14-14	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Maddie Way	set Sadie White	+0.2
29	14-15	STMARY	STMARY	Ace	STMARY server	aced Kaitlyn Hoelker	+0.2
30	15-15	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Natalie Moore	set Talea Berry	+0.2
31	15-16	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Caroline Formankova	set Caitlin Prior	+0.2
32	16-16	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Cala Cooper	set Talea Berry	+0.2
33	16-17	S UTAH	STMARY×6	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+0.2
34	16-18	STMARY	STMARY×6	Ace	STMARY server	aced Amanda Mendoza	+0.2
35	16-19	STMARY	STMARY×6	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+0.1
36	16-20	STMARY	STMARY×6	Attack err	Molly Mitchell		+0.1
37	16-21	STMARY	STMARY×6	Attack err	Audrey Atwood	blk Makenzie Jackson, Ava Galvan	+0.0
38	16-22	STMARY	STMARY×6	Attack err	Cala Cooper	blk Ava Galvan	+0.0
39	17-22	STMARY	S UTAH	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.0
40	17-23	S UTAH	STMARY×3	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.0
41	17-24	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Layne Dent	set Alayna Pearson	+0.0
42	17-25	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+0.0
2	0-2	STMARY	STMARY	Ace	STMARY server	aced Team	+0.0
3	1-2	STMARY	S UTAH×3	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.0
4	2-2	S UTAH	S UTAH×3	Ace	S UTAH server	aced Alayna Pearson	+0.0
5	3-2	S UTAH	S UTAH×3	Attack err	Layne Dent		+0.0
6	3-3	S UTAH	STMARY×7	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.0
7	3-4	STMARY	STMARY×7	Ace	STMARY server	aced Audrey Atwood	+0.0
8	3-5	STMARY	STMARY×7	Attack err	Emilia Zug		+0.0
9	3-6	STMARY	STMARY×7	Ace	STMARY server	aced Emilia Zug	+0.0
10	3-7	STMARY	STMARY×7	Attack err	Emilia Zug		+0.0
11	3-8	STMARY	STMARY×7	Attack err	Molly Mitchell		+0.0
12	3-9	STMARY	STMARY×7	Attack err	Audrey Atwood		+0.0
13	4-9	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Molly Mitchell	set Zorana Stankovska	+0.0
14	4-10	S UTAH	STMARY	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.0
15	5-10	STMARY	S UTAH	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.0
16	6-10	S UTAH	S UTAH	Kill	Cala Cooper	set Natalie Moore	+0.0
17	6-11	S UTAH	STMARY×5	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+0.0
18	6-12	STMARY	STMARY×5	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+0.0
19	6-13	STMARY	STMARY×5	Attack err	Emilia Zug	blk Maddie Way, Makenzie Jackson	+0.0
20	6-14	STMARY	STMARY×5	Attack err	Cala Cooper		+0.0
21	6-15	STMARY	STMARY×5	Ace	STMARY server	aced Talea Berry	+0.0
22	7-15	STMARY	S UTAH	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson		+0.0
23	7-16	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+0.0
24	8-16	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Natalie Moore	set Talea Berry	+0.0
25	8-17	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+0.0
26	9-17	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Kaitlyn Hoelker	set Talea Berry	+0.0
27	9-18	S UTAH	STMARY×3	Kill	Natalie Peete	set Antonie Kelnárová	+0.0
28	9-19	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	STMARY server	aced Team	+0.0
29	9-20	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+0.0
30	10-20	STMARY	S UTAH	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.0
31	10-21	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caroline Formankova	+0.0
32	11-21	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Kaitlyn Hoelker	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.0
33	11-22	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Caroline Formankova	set Sadie White	+0.0
34	12-22	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Natalie Moore	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.0
35	12-23	S UTAH	STMARY	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.0
36	12-24	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Cala Cooper		+0.0
37	13-24	STMARY	S UTAH	Kill	Natalie Moore	set Talea Berry	+0.0
38	13-25	S UTAH	STMARY	Kill	Maddie Way	set Caitlin Prior	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Southern Utah first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.