CollegeVolleyball
Final · 5 setsSun, Aug 30, 2026

Saint Mary's (CA) def. California 32

(25-23, 16-25, 25-19, 22-25, 15-13)
Set12345Sets
CAL23251925132
STMARY25162522153

RallyIQ model

Win probability

STMARY above 50 · CAL below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100STMARYCALBiggest swing +25.8% STMARY · S5 13-15rally 208 · set 5

Biggest swing: 25.8% to Saint Mary's (CA) — set 5, CAL 13-15 STMARY. California service error. STMARY win probability 74%100%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CAL 88.6%11.4% STMARY

California wins

3-0
42.2%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
14.8%

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0
1.6%
3-1
3.5%
3-2
6.3%
CAL break %
45.9% vs this opp
STMARY break %
36.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

  1. 01
    CAL serverService error+25.8%

    California service error

    Set 5 · CAL 13-15 STMARY · STMARY 74%100%

  2. 02

    Kill by Caroline Formankova (set by Alayna Pearson)

    Set 5 · CAL 9-11 STMARY · STMARY 49%65%

  3. 03

    Kill by Antonie Kelnárová (set by Caitlin Prior)

    Set 5 · CAL 10-13 STMARY · STMARY 70%86%

  4. 04
    Cari BohmKill+14.0%

    Kill by Cari Bohm

    Set 5 · CAL 13-14 STMARY · CAL 12%26%

  5. 05
    CAL serverService error+13.3%

    California service error

    Set 5 · CAL 10-12 STMARY · STMARY 56%70%

  6. 06
    Caroline FormankovaAttack error+12.9%

    Attack error by Caroline Formankova

    Set 5 · CAL 9-9 STMARY · CAL 49%62%

  7. 07

    Kill by Antonie Kelnárová (set by Natalie Peete)

    Set 5 · CAL 11-14 STMARY · STMARY 80%93%

  8. 08
    Caroline FormankovaAttack error+11.8%

    Caroline Formankova stuffed by Abby Zimmerman & Sawyer Thomsen

    Set 5 · CAL 8-9 STMARY · CAL 37%49%

Official NCAA box

Box score

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
513226.4230217020217
57422.13610010679.516.5
58636.05621414308413
56322.13600110031.57.5
5237-.143300190010.52.5
32719-.263101301013
14Elise LauL/DS
5000111100001
5000000500000
50001001010000
4000020300002
4000013000001
3217.14300010212.54.5
Team totals4026139.10136712555112021105
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
5191051.17620260111.520.5
59617.17600010132.511.5
59317.3530012002110
57728.000000601229
561134-.147312530007
5001.0003112600001
58420.200000100219
51011.0002012800002
50002242220002
4000100200000
2000001010000
1000000000000
Team totals5941169.107595145973108103

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 CAL · STMARY 6

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 4 CALSTMARY 4

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 5 CALSTMARY 3

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 3 CALSTMARY 3

Set 4

25-22

Longest run 4 CALSTMARY 4

Set 5

13-15

Longest run 4 CALSTMARY 6

Bars above the line = Saint Mary's (CA) leads, below = California leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

California

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%12/18
27%4/15
2
50%10/20
52%12/23
3
50%10/20
33%5/15
4
64%9/14
47%9/19
5
56%9/16
44%7/16
6
64%9/14
50%9/18
All
58%59/102
43%46/106

Saint Mary's (CA)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%12/19
44%8/18
2
52%11/21
29%5/17
3
56%10/18
57%13/23
4
60%9/15
44%7/16
5
60%9/15
18%2/11
6
50%9/18
47%8/17
All
57%60/106
42%43/102

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

208 rallies

Rally log

#CAL-STMARYSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0STMARYCALKillAshley Liset Cari Bohm+0.8
21-1CALSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+0.9
31-2STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+1.4
42-2STMARYCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+0.9
52-3CALSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+1.0
62-4STMARYSTMARYAttack errPortia Shermanblk Layne Dent, Anaya Thrower+1.6
73-4STMARYCAL×4Serve errSTMARY server+1.0
84-4CALCAL×4Attack errAnaya Thrower+1.4
95-4CALCAL×4Attack errLayne Dent+1.3
106-4CALCAL×4KillSawyer Thomsen+1.2
116-5CALSTMARY×3KillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+0.8
126-6STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errPortia Shermanblk Anaya Thrower, Makenzie Jackson+1.4
136-7STMARYSTMARY×3KillCaroline Formankovaset Caitlin Prior+1.6
147-7STMARYCALServe errSTMARY server+1.1
157-8CALSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+1.2
168-8STMARYCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.1
178-9CALSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+1.3
189-9STMARYCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.1
199-10CALSTMARYKillCaitlin Priorset Caroline Formankova+1.3
209-11STMARYSTMARYAttack errCari Bohm+2.0
2110-11STMARYCAL×3KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.3
2211-11CALCAL×3KillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.8
2312-11CALCAL×3Attack errLayne Dentblk Cari Bohm, Abby Zimmerman+1.7
2412-12CALSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+1.3
2513-12STMARYCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.2
2614-12CALCALAttack errCaroline Formankovablk Cari Bohm, Abby Zimmerman+1.6
2714-13CALSTMARY×4KillLayne Dentset Sadie White+1.1
2814-14STMARYSTMARY×4Attack errAbby Zimmerman+1.9
2914-15STMARYSTMARY×4KillAntonie Kelnárováset Alayna Pearson+2.3
3014-16STMARYSTMARY×4Attack errAbby Zimmerman+2.6
3115-16STMARYCALKillPortia Shermanset Anna Flores+1.6
3216-16CALCALAceCAL serveraced Caroline Formankova+2.3
3316-17CALSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+1.9
3417-17STMARYCALKillPortia Shermanset Abby Zimmerman+1.7
3517-18CALSTMARYServe errCAL server+2.0
3618-18STMARYCALBad setCaitlin Prior+1.8
3719-18CALCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+2.6
3819-19CALSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Antonie Kelnárová+1.9
3920-19STMARYCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.9
4020-20CALSTMARYServe errCAL server+2.1
4121-20STMARYCALServe errSTMARY server+2.2
4221-21CALSTMARYServe errCAL server+2.3
4321-22STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+4.3
4422-22STMARYCALServe errSTMARY server+2.8
4522-23CALSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+3.7
4623-23STMARYCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+3.3
4723-24CALSTMARYAttack errAbby Zimmerman+4.7
4823-25STMARYSTMARYAttack errPortia Sherman+8.1
Set 2
10-1CALSTMARYAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+1.8
21-1STMARYCAL×4KillAbby Zimmermanset Portia Sherman+1.7
32-1CALCAL×4AceCAL serveraced Caroline Formankova+2.2
43-1CALCAL×4Attack errAntonie Kelnárováblk Portia Sherman+2.0
54-1CALCAL×4Attack errAva Galvan+1.7
64-2CALSTMARYAttack errPortia Sherman+1.2
75-2STMARYCALAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+1.2
85-3CALSTMARYKillCaroline Formankovaset Sadie White+1.2
96-3STMARYCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.2
106-4CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.3
117-4STMARYCAL×3KillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.3
128-4CALCAL×3KillAnna Floresset Caitlin Prior+1.5
139-4CALCAL×3KillAshley Li+1.2
149-5CALSTMARYServe errCAL server+0.8
1510-5STMARYCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+0.8
1610-6CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+0.8
1711-6STMARYCAL×4KillAshley Liset Sophia Johnson+0.9
1812-6CALCAL×4Attack errAntonie Kelnárováblk Abby Zimmerman, Cari Bohm+0.9
1913-6CALCAL×4Attack errAntonie Kelnárováblk Cari Bohm, Abby Zimmerman+0.6
2014-6CALCAL×4Attack errAva Galvan+0.4
2114-7CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+0.2
2215-7STMARYCALAttack errCaroline Formankovablk Cari Bohm+0.3
2315-8CALSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+0.2
2415-9STMARYSTMARYAttack errPortia Shermanblk Layne Dent, Ava Galvan+0.4
2516-9STMARYCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.4
2616-10CALSTMARYAttack errSawyer Thomsen+0.3
2717-10STMARYCALAttack errCaroline Formankovablk Sawyer Thomsen, Abby Zimmerman+0.4
2817-11CALSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+0.3
2918-11STMARYCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.4
3018-12CALSTMARY×3KillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+0.2
3118-13STMARYSTMARY×3AceSTMARY serveraced Abby Zimmerman+0.6
3218-14STMARYSTMARY×3KillAnaya Throwerset Caitlin Prior+1.0
3319-14STMARYCAL×5Attack errMakenzie Jackson+0.9
3420-14CALCAL×5KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+0.8
3521-14CALCAL×5KillAnna Floresset Antonie Kelnárová+0.4
3622-14CALCAL×5AceCAL serveraced Mikayla Haner+0.2
3723-14CALCAL×5Attack errAnaya Throwerblk Cari Bohm+0.0
3823-15CALSTMARYServe errCAL server+0.0
3924-15STMARYCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.0
4024-16CALSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+0.0
4125-16STMARYCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+0.0
Set 3
10-1STMARYSTMARYAttack errPortia Sherman+2.4
20-2STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+2.7
31-2STMARYCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.7
41-3CALSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+2.0
51-4STMARYSTMARYAttack errCari Bohm+3.0
62-4STMARYCALAttack errCaroline Formankova+1.8
72-5CALSTMARY×3KillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+2.2
82-6STMARYSTMARY×3KillCaroline Formankovaset Antonie Kelnárová+3.2
92-7STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errPortia Sherman+3.2
103-7STMARYCALServe errSTMARY server+1.8
114-7CALCALAceCAL serveraced Alayna Pearson+2.8
124-8CALSTMARYServe errCAL server+2.4
135-8STMARYCALServe errSTMARY server+1.9
145-9CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.5
156-9STMARYCALServe errSTMARY server+2.0
166-10CALSTMARY×3Attack errAnna Flores+2.6
176-11STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errAshley Li+3.5
186-12STMARYSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+3.2
197-12STMARYCALAttack errAntonie Kelnárováblk Ashley Li+1.6
207-13CALSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+2.4
217-14STMARYSTMARYAttack errCari Bohm+2.8
228-14STMARYCAL×3Bad setSadie White+1.3
239-14CALCAL×3Attack errLayne Dent+2.3
2410-14CALCAL×3AceCAL serveraced Team+2.8
2510-15CALSTMARYServe errCAL server+2.7
2610-16STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caroline Formankova+3.2
2711-16STMARYCALServe errSTMARY server+1.5
2812-16CALCALAttack errAnaya Thrower+2.7
2912-17CALSTMARYServe errCAL server+2.8
3012-18STMARYSTMARYAceSTMARY serveraced Abby Zimmerman+3.1
3113-18STMARYCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.3
3213-19CALSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Caitlin Prior+2.2
3313-20STMARYSTMARYAttack errAbby Zimmerman+2.1
3414-20STMARYCAL×3Attack errMakenzie Jacksonblk Dominique Phills, Sawyer Thomsen+0.7
3515-20CALCAL×3AceCAL serveraced Caroline Formankova+1.5
3616-20CALCAL×3AceCAL serveraced Alayna Pearson+2.2
3716-21CALSTMARYAttack errAbby Zimmerman+2.6
3816-22STMARYSTMARYAttack errAshley Liblk Ava Galvan, Makenzie Jackson+2.3
3917-22STMARYCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+0.7
4017-23CALSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+1.4
4118-23STMARYCALAttack errAntonie Kelnárováblk Cari Bohm+0.4
4219-23CALCALAttack errAva Galvan+1.1
4319-24CALSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+1.7
4419-25STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+0.6
Set 4
10-1CALSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+3.0
21-1STMARYCALAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+2.7
32-1CALCALAttack errLayne Dent+3.6
42-2CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+2.8
53-2STMARYCALServe errSTMARY server+2.6
64-2CALCALAttack errLayne Dent+3.3
74-3CALSTMARY×3KillCaroline Formankovaset Sadie White+2.4
84-4STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errAbby Zimmerman+4.0
94-5STMARYSTMARY×3AceSTMARY serveraced Team+4.7
105-5STMARYCALServe errSTMARY server+3.0
116-5CALCALAttack errCaroline Formankovablk Cari Bohm+4.1
126-6CALSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+3.1
136-7STMARYSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+5.0
147-7STMARYCALAttack errCaroline Formankovablk Cari Bohm+3.3
157-8CALSTMARY×4KillAnaya Throwerset Caitlin Prior+3.8
167-9STMARYSTMARY×4KillCaroline Formankovaset Caitlin Prior+5.8
177-10STMARYSTMARY×4KillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+6.3
187-11STMARYSTMARY×4Attack errDominique Phills+6.4
198-11STMARYCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+3.6
209-11CALCALAttack errMakenzie Jackson+5.6
219-12CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+4.9
229-13STMARYSTMARYAttack errSawyer Thomsenblk Ava Galvan+6.8
2310-13STMARYCALAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+3.7
2410-14CALSTMARYServe errCAL server+5.1
2510-15STMARYSTMARYAttack errAnna Floresblk Antonie Kelnárová+6.5
2611-15STMARYCAL×4Serve errSTMARY server+3.3
2712-15CALCAL×4Attack errLayne Dent+5.6
2813-15CALCAL×4Attack errAva Galvanblk Ashley Li+6.3
2914-15CALCAL×4Attack errAva Galvan+6.8
3014-16CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+5.8
3115-16STMARYCAL×3KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+4.8
3216-16CALCAL×3Attack errCaroline Formankova+7.3
3317-16CALCAL×3Attack errCaroline Formankova+6.9
3417-17CALSTMARYServe errCAL server+5.2
3517-18STMARYSTMARYAceSTMARY serveraced Sophia Johnson+8.7
3618-18STMARYCALServe errSTMARY server+5.7
3718-19CALSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+6.9
3819-19STMARYCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+6.1
3920-19CALCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+8.9
4020-20CALSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Caitlin Prior+6.5
4121-20STMARYCAL×4Attack errAntonie Kelnárováblk Cari Bohm, Abby Zimmerman+6.7
4222-20CALCAL×4KillAbby Zimmermanset Elise Lau+8.5
4323-20CALCAL×4KillDominique Phillsset Anna Flores+5.8
4424-20CALCAL×4Attack errMakenzie Jacksonblk Dominique Phills+2.7
4524-21CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+0.6
4624-22STMARYSTMARYAttack errSawyer Thomsen+2.2
4725-22STMARYCALServe errSTMARY server+2.3
Set 5
10-1CALSTMARYAttack errAnna Flores+6.1
21-1STMARYCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+5.4
31-2CALSTMARY×6KillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+6.3
41-3STMARYSTMARY×6KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+9.8
51-4STMARYSTMARY×6Attack errCari Bohmblk Ava Galvan, Antonie Kelnárová+10.3
61-5STMARYSTMARY×6KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+10.2
71-6STMARYSTMARY×6AceSTMARY serveraced Abby Zimmerman+9.4
81-7STMARYSTMARY×6KillAva Galvanset Sadie White+7.9
92-7STMARYCALAttack errAntonie Kelnárováblk Anna Flores, Cari Bohm+3.5
102-8CALSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+5.6
113-8STMARYCAL×4KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+3.3
124-8CALCAL×4Attack errLayne Dentblk Dominique Phills+6.4
135-8CALCAL×4Attack errCaroline Formankovablk Cari Bohm, Abby Zimmerman+8.1
146-8CALCAL×4Attack errAva Galvanblk Cari Bohm+9.8
156-9CALSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+9.5
167-9STMARYCAL×3KillDominique Phillsset Anna Flores+6.8
178-9CALCAL×3Attack errCaroline Formankovablk Abby Zimmerman, Sawyer Thomsen+11.8
189-9CALCAL×3Attack errCaroline Formankova+12.9
199-10CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caroline Formankova+10.7
209-11STMARYSTMARYKillCaroline Formankovaset Alayna Pearson+16.5
2110-11STMARYCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+9.0
2210-12CALSTMARYServe errCAL server+13.3
2310-13STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+16.5
2411-13STMARYCALServe errSTMARY server+6.1
2511-14CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Natalie Peete+12.5
2612-14STMARYCALBad setCaitlin Prior+4.3
2713-14CALCALKillCari Bohm+14.0
2813-15CALSTMARYServe errCAL server+25.8

Score shown after each rally, California first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.