Final · 5 setsSun, Aug 30, 2026

Saint Mary's (CA) def. California 3–2

Saint Mary's (CA) beat visiting California 3-2 (25-23, 16-25, 25-19, 22-25, 15-13) on Sun, Aug 30, 2026. Saint Mary's (CA)'s Antonie Kelnárová led with 19 kills, and Alayna Pearson added 22 digs.

Data through · final Aug 30

Set12345Sets
CAL23251925132
STMARY25162522153

Win probability

Saint Mary's (CA) above 50 · California below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+23.0% STMARYrally 208 · set 5

Biggest swing: 23.0% to Saint Mary's (CA) — set 5, CAL 13-15 STMARY. California service error. STMARY win probability 77% → 100%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CAL 79.5%20.5% STMARY

California wins

3-0
31.1%
3-1
30.1%
3-2
18.4%

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0
3.4%
3-1
6.8%
3-2
10.3%
CAL break %
43.6% vs this opp
STMARY break %
37.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    CaliforniaService error+23.0%

    California service error

    Set 5 · CAL 13-15 STMARY · STMARY 77% → 100%

  2. 02

    Kill by Caroline Formankova (set by Alayna Pearson)

    Set 5 · CAL 9-11 STMARY · STMARY 53% → 69%

  3. 03

    Kill by Antonie Kelnárová (set by Caitlin Prior)

    Set 5 · CAL 10-13 STMARY · STMARY 73% → 88%

  4. 04
    Caroline FormankovaAttack error+13.3%

    Attack error by Caroline Formankova

    Set 5 · CAL 9-9 STMARY · CAL 44% → 57%

  5. 05
    Cari BohmKill+13.0%

    Kill by Cari Bohm

    Set 5 · CAL 13-14 STMARY · CAL 10% → 23%

  6. 06
    CaliforniaService error+12.4%

    California service error

    Set 5 · CAL 10-12 STMARY · STMARY 61% → 73%

  7. 07

    Caroline Formankova stuffed by Abby Zimmerman & Sawyer Thomsen

    Set 5 · CAL 8-9 STMARY · CAL 32% → 44%

  8. 08

    Kill by Antonie Kelnárová (set by Natalie Peete)

    Set 5 · CAL 11-14 STMARY · STMARY 83% → 94%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
513226.4230217020217
57422.13610010679.516.5
58636.05621414308413
56322.13600110031.57.5
5237-.143300190010.52.5
32719-.263101301013
14Elise LauL/DS
5000–111100001
5000–000500000
5000–1001010000
4000–020300002
4000–013000001
3217.14300010212.54.5
Team totals4026139.10136712555112021105
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
5191051.17620260111.520.5
59617.17600010132.511.5
59317.3530012002110
57728.000000601229
561134-.147312530007
5001.0003112600001
58420.200000100219
51011.0002012800002
5000–2242220002
4000–100200000
2000–001010000
1000–000000000
Team totals5941169.107595145973108103

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 CAL · STMARY 6

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 4 CALSTMARY 4

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 5 CALSTMARY 3

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 3 CALSTMARY 3

Set 4

25-22

Longest run 4 CALSTMARY 4

Set 5

13-15

Longest run 4 CALSTMARY 6

Bars above the line = Saint Mary's (CA) leads, below = California leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

California

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%12/18
27%4/15
2
50%10/20
52%12/23
3
50%10/20
33%5/15
4
64%9/14
47%9/19
5
56%9/16
44%7/16
6
64%9/14
50%9/18
All
58%59/102
43%46/106

Saint Mary's (CA)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%12/19
44%8/18
2
52%11/21
29%5/17
3
56%10/18
57%13/23
4
60%9/15
44%7/16
5
60%9/15
18%2/11
6
50%9/18
47%8/17
All
57%60/106
42%43/102

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

208 rallies

#CAL-STMARYSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0STMARYCALKillAshley Liset Cari Bohm+1.2
21-1CALSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+1.3
31-2STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+2.0
42-2STMARYCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.3
52-3CALSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+1.4
62-4STMARYSTMARYBlockedPortia Shermanblk Layne Dent, Anaya Thrower+2.2
73-4STMARYCAL×4Serve errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.4
84-4CALCAL×4Attack errAnaya Thrower+2.1
95-4CALCAL×4Attack errLayne Dent+2.0
106-4CALCAL×4KillSawyer Thomsen+1.8
116-5CALSTMARY×3KillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+1.2
126-6STMARYSTMARY×3BlockedPortia Shermanblk Anaya Thrower, Makenzie Jackson+2.1
136-7STMARYSTMARY×3KillCaroline Formankovaset Caitlin Prior+2.3
147-7STMARYCALServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.5
157-8CALSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+1.7
168-8STMARYCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.5
178-9CALSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+1.7
189-9STMARYCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.6
199-10CALSTMARYKillCaitlin Priorset Caroline Formankova+1.8
209-11STMARYSTMARYAttack errCari Bohm+2.8
2110-11STMARYCAL×3KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.7
2211-11CALCAL×3KillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+2.6
2312-11CALCAL×3BlockedLayne Dentblk Cari Bohm, Abby Zimmerman+2.5
2412-12CALSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+1.8
2513-12STMARYCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.7
2614-12CALCALBlockedCaroline Formankovablk Cari Bohm, Abby Zimmerman+2.4
2714-13CALSTMARY×4KillLayne Dentset Sadie White+1.6
2814-14STMARYSTMARY×4Attack errAbby Zimmerman+2.8
2914-15STMARYSTMARY×4KillAntonie Kelnárováset Alayna Pearson+3.2
3014-16STMARYSTMARY×4Attack errAbby Zimmerman+3.4
3115-16STMARYCALKillPortia Shermanset Anna Flores+2.0
3216-16CALCALAceCaliforniaaced Caroline Formankova+3.2
3316-17CALSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+2.5
3417-17STMARYCALKillPortia Shermanset Abby Zimmerman+2.3
3517-18CALSTMARYServe errCalifornia+2.7
3618-18STMARYCALBad setCaitlin Prior+2.4
3719-18CALCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+3.7
3819-19CALSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Antonie Kelnárová+2.6
3920-19STMARYCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+2.7
4020-20CALSTMARYServe errCalifornia+2.8
4121-20STMARYCALServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+3.0
4221-21CALSTMARYServe errCalifornia+3.1
4321-22STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+5.7
4422-22STMARYCALServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+3.6
4522-23CALSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+4.7
4623-23STMARYCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+4.3
4723-24CALSTMARYAttack errAbby Zimmerman+5.9
4823-25STMARYSTMARYAttack errPortia Sherman+9.8
Set 2
10-1CALSTMARYAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+2.0
21-1STMARYCAL×4KillAbby Zimmermanset Portia Sherman+1.9
32-1CALCAL×4AceCaliforniaaced Caroline Formankova+2.7
43-1CALCAL×4BlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Portia Sherman+2.5
54-1CALCAL×4Attack errAva Galvan+2.2
64-2CALSTMARYAttack errPortia Sherman+1.5
75-2STMARYCALAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+1.5
85-3CALSTMARYKillCaroline Formankovaset Sadie White+1.5
96-3STMARYCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.5
106-4CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.5
117-4STMARYCAL×3KillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.6
128-4CALCAL×3KillAnna Floresset Caitlin Prior+2.0
139-4CALCAL×3KillAshley Li+1.6
149-5CALSTMARYServe errCalifornia+1.0
1510-5STMARYCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.1
1610-6CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+1.0
1711-6STMARYCAL×4KillAshley Liset Sophia Johnson+1.1
1812-6CALCAL×4BlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Abby Zimmerman, Cari Bohm+1.3
1913-6CALCAL×4BlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Cari Bohm, Abby Zimmerman+0.9
2014-6CALCAL×4Attack errAva Galvan+0.6
2114-7CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+0.3
2215-7STMARYCALBlockedCaroline Formankovablk Cari Bohm+0.4
2315-8CALSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+0.3
2415-9STMARYSTMARYBlockedPortia Shermanblk Layne Dent, Ava Galvan+0.6
2516-9STMARYCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.5
2616-10CALSTMARYAttack errSawyer Thomsen+0.4
2717-10STMARYCALBlockedCaroline Formankovablk Sawyer Thomsen, Abby Zimmerman+0.5
2817-11CALSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+0.3
2918-11STMARYCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.5
3018-12CALSTMARY×3KillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+0.3
3118-13STMARYSTMARY×3AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Abby Zimmerman+0.7
3218-14STMARYSTMARY×3KillAnaya Throwerset Caitlin Prior+1.2
3319-14STMARYCAL×5Attack errMakenzie Jackson+1.1
3420-14CALCAL×5KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.0
3521-14CALCAL×5KillAnna Floresset Antonie Kelnárová+0.5
3622-14CALCAL×5AceCaliforniaaced Mikayla Haner+0.2
3723-14CALCAL×5BlockedAnaya Throwerblk Cari Bohm+0.1
3823-15CALSTMARYServe errCalifornia·
3924-15STMARYCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores·
4024-16CALSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior·
4125-16STMARYCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores·
Set 3
10-1STMARYSTMARYAttack errPortia Sherman+3.0
20-2STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+3.2
31-2STMARYCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+2.0
41-3CALSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+2.3
51-4STMARYSTMARYAttack errCari Bohm+3.4
62-4STMARYCALAttack errCaroline Formankova+2.1
72-5CALSTMARY×3KillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+2.5
82-6STMARYSTMARY×3KillCaroline Formankovaset Antonie Kelnárová+3.5
92-7STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errPortia Sherman+3.4
103-7STMARYCALServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.9
114-7CALCALAceCaliforniaaced Alayna Pearson+3.1
124-8CALSTMARYServe errCalifornia+2.6
135-8STMARYCALServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.1
145-9CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+2.6
156-9STMARYCALServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.1
166-10CALSTMARY×3Attack errAnna Flores+2.7
176-11STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errAshley Li+3.6
186-12STMARYSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+3.2
197-12STMARYCALBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Ashley Li+1.6
207-13CALSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+2.2
217-14STMARYSTMARYAttack errCari Bohm+2.6
228-14STMARYCAL×3Bad setSadie White+1.2
239-14CALCAL×3Attack errLayne Dent+2.3
2410-14CALCAL×3AceCalifornia+2.8
2510-15CALSTMARYServe errCalifornia+2.6
2610-16STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caroline Formankova+3.1
2711-16STMARYCALServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.4
2812-16CALCALAttack errAnaya Thrower+2.7
2912-17CALSTMARYServe errCalifornia+2.7
3012-18STMARYSTMARYAceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Abby Zimmerman+3.0
3113-18STMARYCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.2
3213-19CALSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Caitlin Prior+2.0
3313-20STMARYSTMARYAttack errAbby Zimmerman+1.8
3414-20STMARYCAL×3BlockedMakenzie Jacksonblk Dominique Phills, Sawyer Thomsen+0.6
3515-20CALCAL×3AceCaliforniaaced Caroline Formankova+1.4
3616-20CALCAL×3AceCaliforniaaced Alayna Pearson+2.2
3716-21CALSTMARYAttack errAbby Zimmerman+2.4
3816-22STMARYSTMARYBlockedAshley Liblk Ava Galvan, Makenzie Jackson+2.1
3917-22STMARYCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+0.6
4017-23CALSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+1.2
4118-23STMARYCALBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Cari Bohm+0.4
4219-23CALCALAttack errAva Galvan+1.0
4319-24CALSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+1.5
4419-25STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+0.5
Set 4
10-1CALSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+2.9
21-1STMARYCALAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+2.7
32-1CALCALAttack errLayne Dent+3.9
42-2CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+2.8
53-2STMARYCALServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.7
64-2CALCALAttack errLayne Dent+3.7
74-3CALSTMARY×3KillCaroline Formankovaset Sadie White+2.5
84-4STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errAbby Zimmerman+4.2
94-5STMARYSTMARY×3AceSaint Mary's (CA)+4.7
105-5STMARYCALServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+3.0
116-5CALCALBlockedCaroline Formankovablk Cari Bohm+4.3
126-6CALSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+3.1
136-7STMARYSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+5.0
147-7STMARYCALBlockedCaroline Formankovablk Cari Bohm+3.2
157-8CALSTMARY×4KillAnaya Throwerset Caitlin Prior+3.6
167-9STMARYSTMARY×4KillCaroline Formankovaset Caitlin Prior+5.5
177-10STMARYSTMARY×4KillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+5.7
187-11STMARYSTMARY×4Attack errDominique Phills+5.6
198-11STMARYCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+3.1
209-11CALCALAttack errMakenzie Jackson+5.2
219-12CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+4.2
229-13STMARYSTMARYBlockedSawyer Thomsenblk Ava Galvan+5.9
2310-13STMARYCALAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+3.2
2410-14CALSTMARYServe errCalifornia+4.2
2510-15STMARYSTMARYBlockedAnna Floresblk Antonie Kelnárová+5.4
2611-15STMARYCAL×4Serve errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.6
2712-15CALCAL×4Attack errLayne Dent+4.9
2813-15CALCAL×4BlockedAva Galvanblk Ashley Li+5.7
2914-15CALCAL×4Attack errAva Galvan+6.3
3014-16CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+5.1
3115-16STMARYCAL×3KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+4.4
3216-16CALCAL×3Attack errCaroline Formankova+7.0
3317-16CALCAL×3Attack errCaroline Formankova+6.9
3417-17CALSTMARYServe errCalifornia+4.8
3517-18STMARYSTMARYAceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Sophia Johnson+8.2
3618-18STMARYCALServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+5.3
3718-19CALSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+6.2
3819-19STMARYCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+5.7
3920-19CALCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+8.7
4020-20CALSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Caitlin Prior+6.0
4121-20STMARYCAL×4BlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Cari Bohm, Abby Zimmerman+6.4
4222-20CALCAL×4KillAbby Zimmermanset Elise Lau+8.6
4323-20CALCAL×4KillDominique Phillsset Anna Flores+6.0
4424-20CALCAL×4BlockedMakenzie Jacksonblk Dominique Phills+2.9
4524-21CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+0.6
4624-22STMARYSTMARYAttack errSawyer Thomsen+2.2
4725-22STMARYCALServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.1
Set 5
10-1CALSTMARYAttack errAnna Flores+6.2
21-1STMARYCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+5.7
31-2CALSTMARY×6KillMakenzie Jacksonset Caitlin Prior+6.5
41-3STMARYSTMARY×6KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+10.0
51-4STMARYSTMARY×6BlockedCari Bohmblk Ava Galvan, Antonie Kelnárová+10.1
61-5STMARYSTMARY×6KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+9.6
71-6STMARYSTMARY×6AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Abby Zimmerman+8.4
81-7STMARYSTMARY×6KillAva Galvanset Sadie White+6.7
92-7STMARYCALBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Anna Flores, Cari Bohm+2.9
102-8CALSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+4.5
113-8STMARYCAL×4KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+2.7
124-8CALCAL×4BlockedLayne Dentblk Dominique Phills+5.6
135-8CALCAL×4BlockedCaroline Formankovablk Cari Bohm, Abby Zimmerman+7.5
146-8CALCAL×4BlockedAva Galvanblk Cari Bohm+9.4
156-9CALSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+8.7
167-9STMARYCAL×3KillDominique Phillsset Anna Flores+6.3
178-9CALCAL×3BlockedCaroline Formankovablk Abby Zimmerman, Sawyer Thomsen+11.8
189-9CALCAL×3Attack errCaroline Formankova+13.3
199-10CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caroline Formankova+10.5
209-11STMARYSTMARYKillCaroline Formankovaset Alayna Pearson+16.1
2110-11STMARYCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+8.6
2210-12CALSTMARYServe errCalifornia+12.4
2310-13STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Caitlin Prior+15.2
2411-13STMARYCALServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+5.4
2511-14CALSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Natalie Peete+10.8
2612-14STMARYCALBad setCaitlin Prior+3.7
2713-14CALCALKillCari Bohm+13.0
2813-15CALSTMARYServe errCalifornia+23.0

Score shown after each rally, California first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).