Final · 5 setsWed, Oct 21, 2026Watch on SECN

Tennessee def. Kentucky 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Kentucky 65.5% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 21, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Tennessee beat visiting Kentucky 3-2 (17-25, 18-25, 25-19, 25-21, 15-10) on Wed, Oct 21, 2026. Chelsea Sutton led Tennessee with 14 kills; Kentucky's Brooklyn DeLeye had a match-high 25.

Data through · final Oct 21

Set12345Sets
UK25251921102
TENN17182525153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

From 0–2 and 6%: Tennessee came all the way back.

The match turned once. Numbers are Tennessee's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Kentucky went in at 65% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Kentucky 9–10 Tennessee

    3 straight Tennessee kills stretched a 10–9 lead to 13–9.

    Tennessee 63% → 95%

Tennessee above 50Kentucky belowMax swing 13.1%

KentuckyTennessee

Sideout %
Kentucky 64.6·Tennessee 64.4
Break %
Kentucky 35.6·Tennessee 35.4
Hitting
Kentucky .274·Tennessee .235
Longest run
Kentucky 5·Tennessee 6

Chelsea Sutton
14 kills on .538, 15.5 points; 2 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Tennessee above 50 · Kentucky below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+13.1% TENNrally 200 · set 5

Biggest swing: 13.1% to Tennessee — set 5, UK 9-12 TENN. Kill by Chelsea Sutton (set by Caroline Kerr). TENN win probability 73% → 87%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UK 61.8%38.2% TENN

Kentucky wins

3-0
18.2%
3-1
23.6%
3-2
20.0%

Tennessee wins

3-0
8.2%
3-1
13.9%
3-2
16.2%
UK break %
39.6% vs this opp
TENN break %
37.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Chelsea SuttonKill+13.1%

    Kill by Chelsea Sutton (set by Caroline Kerr)

    Set 5 · UK 9-12 TENN · TENN 73% → 87%

  2. 02
    Camille PerryKill+10.7%

    Kill by Camille Perry (set by Caroline Kerr)

    Set 5 · UK 3-5 TENN · TENN 52% → 63%

  3. 03

    Brooklyn DeLeye stuffed by Camille Perry & Jalyn Stout

    Set 5 · UK 4-7 TENN · TENN 64% → 75%

  4. 04

    Camille Perry stuffed by Bryah Breaux & Lizzie Carr

    Set 5 · UK 6-7 TENN · UK 31% → 41%

  5. 05
    Kennedi RogersKill+10.4%

    Kill by Kennedi Rogers (set by Kassie O'Brien)

    Set 5 · UK 9-11 TENN · TENN 63% → 73%

  6. 06
    KentuckyService error+9.6%

    Kentucky service error

    Set 5 · UK 8-10 TENN · TENN 61% → 71%

  7. 07
    Jalyn StoutKill+8.9%

    Kill by Jalyn Stout (set by Caroline Kerr)

    Set 5 · UK 7-9 TENN · TENN 60% → 69%

  8. 08

    Kill by Chelsea Sutton (set by Caroline Kerr)

    Set 5 · UK 9-13 TENN · TENN 87% → 95%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
525852.3272249012229
511434.20600560031.512.5
511230.3000014002112
59220.3500000014312
56112.41710020052.58.5
5015-.2004700110010.50.5
5000–4202410002
5000–110100001
4000–00000010.50.5
4000–100620000
2000–001100000
2000–000410000
1124-.250000000001
Team totals6320157.2745651168621811100
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
514026.53810050031.515.5
513852.096114132010.514.5
513634.206200100031.514.5
58223.26103012000011
56213.30846011000217
2117.00000000010.51.5
5000–012400001
5000–510320001
5000–101100000
36211.364000000217
2224.000000200002
1000–000100000
Team totals6323170.23556686150126100

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 UK · TENN 6

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 5 UKTENN 2

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 4 UKTENN 2

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 3 UKTENN 6

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 3 UKTENN 3

Set 5

10-15

Longest run 2 UKTENN 3

Bars above the line = Tennessee leads, below = Kentucky leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Kentucky

SlotSideout %Break %
1
74%14/19
33%6/18
2
63%12/19
28%5/18
3
58%11/19
43%9/21
4
82%9/11
29%4/14
5
50%9/18
40%6/15
6
69%9/13
40%6/15
All
65%64/99
36%36/101

Tennessee

SlotSideout %Break %
1
78%14/18
31%5/16
2
72%13/18
36%8/22
3
53%10/19
39%7/18
4
67%10/15
23%3/13
5
56%9/16
31%4/13
6
60%9/15
47%8/17
All
64%65/101
35%35/99

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

200 rallies

#UK-TENNSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0UKUKAttack errAnni Tang+2.4
22-0UKUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+2.3
32-1UKTENNKillMaggie Dosticset Brooklyn DeLeye+1.5
43-1TENNUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+1.5
53-2UKTENNServe errKentucky+1.5
64-2TENNUK×5BlockedJalyn Stoutblk Asia Thigpen, Lizzie Carr+1.5
75-2UKUK×5KillAsia Thigpenset Molly Tuozzo+2.2
86-2UKUK×5AceKentuckyaced Kennedi Rogers+1.9
97-2UKUK×5Attack errJalyn Stout+1.6
108-2UKUK×5KillKennedy Washingtonset Kassie O'Brien+1.3
118-3UKTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+0.7
129-3TENNUKAttack errKennedi Rogers+0.9
139-4UKTENNServe errKentucky+0.7
1410-4TENNUKBlockedKennedi Rogersblk Kassie O'Brien, Kennedy Washington+0.9
1511-4UKUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+1.0
1611-5UKTENNServe errKentucky+0.5
1711-6TENNTENNKillMaggie Dosticset Raegan Burns+1.1
1812-6TENNUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+0.9
1912-7UKTENNKillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr+0.7
2013-7TENNUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+0.9
2113-8UKTENNKillCaroline Kerrset Raegan Burns+0.7
2214-8TENNUKKillLizzie Carrset Trinity Ward+0.9
2315-8UKUKAceKentuckyaced Kennedi Rogers+0.9
2415-9UKTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+0.4
2515-10TENNTENNAttack errMorgan Gaerte+0.9
2616-10TENNUKKillLizzie Carrset Kassie O'Brien+0.8
2717-10UKUKKillAsia Thigpenset Molly Tuozzo+0.8
2817-11UKTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+0.4
2917-12TENNTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Raegan Burns+0.8
3018-12TENNUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+0.8
3119-12UKUKAttack errJalyn Stout+0.7
3219-13UKTENNServe errKentucky+0.3
3320-13TENNUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+0.4
3421-13UKUKKillKennedy Washington+0.3
3521-14UKTENNKillNia Hallset Caroline Kerr+0.1
3622-14TENNUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kennedy Washington+0.1
3722-15UKTENNKillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr+0.1
3822-16TENNTENNBlockedBrooklyn DeLeyeblk Caroline Kerr, Anni Tang+0.2
3923-16TENNUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+0.2
4023-17UKTENNKillNia Hallset Caroline Kerr+0.1
4124-17TENNUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+0.1
4225-17UKUKKillLizzie Carr·
Set 2
11-0TENNUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+1.3
21-1UKTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+1.4
32-1TENNUKKillLizzie Carrset Kassie O'Brien+1.4
43-1UKUKAceKentucky+2.0
53-2UKTENNServe errKentucky+1.3
63-3TENNTENNAceKennedi Rogers+2.1
74-3TENNUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+1.4
84-4UKTENNKillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr+1.5
95-4TENNUK×4BlockedNia Hallblk Kennedy Washington, Morgan Gaerte+1.5
106-4UKUK×4Attack errNia Hall+2.1
117-4UKUK×4KillKennedy Washington+2.0
128-4UKUK×4KillKennedy Washingtonset Kassie O'Brien+1.7
138-5UKTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+1.0
149-5TENNUKBlockedJalyn Stoutblk Asia Thigpen, Kennedy Washington+1.2
159-6UKTENNKillMaggie Dosticset Caroline Kerr+1.0
169-7TENNTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Raegan Burns+1.9
1710-7TENNUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+1.4
1810-8UKTENNKillCaroline Kerrset Caroline Kerr+1.3
1910-9TENNTENNAceRaegan Burns+2.3
2011-9TENNUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+1.6
2112-9UKUKBlockedKennedi Rogersblk Morgan Gaerte, Lizzie Carr+2.2
2212-10UKTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+1.3
2313-10TENNUKServe errEmma Frietch+1.5
2414-10UKUKAttack errCaroline Kerr+1.9
2514-11UKTENNKillCaroline Kerrset Raegan Burns+1.1
2615-11TENNUKKillAsia Thigpenset Kassie O'Brien+1.3
2715-12UKTENNKillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr+1.1
2816-12TENNUKServe errSydney Jaynes+1.3
2916-13UKTENNServe errKentucky+1.1
3017-13TENNUK×3KillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+1.3
3118-13UKUK×3KillKennedy Washingtonset Kassie O'Brien+1.5
3219-13UKUK×3KillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+1.0
3319-14UKTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+0.4
3420-14TENNUK×3KillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+0.6
3521-14UKUK×3KillLizzie Carr+0.5
3622-14UKUK×3KillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Brynn Covell+0.2
3722-15UKTENNKillAnni Tangset Caroline Kerr·
3823-15TENNUKBlockedJalyn Stoutblk Lizzie Carr, Brooklyn DeLeye+0.1
3923-16UKTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr·
4024-16TENNUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien·
4124-17UKTENNKillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr·
4224-18TENNTENNKillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr·
4325-18TENNUKKillAsia Thigpenset Brooklyn DeLeye·
Set 3
10-1UKTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+0.8
20-2TENNTENNAttack errLizzie Carr+1.3
31-2TENNUKAttack errKennedi Rogers+0.8
42-2UKUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+1.2
52-3UKTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+0.9
62-4TENNTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+1.3
73-4TENNUKServe errKennedi Rogers+0.8
83-5UKTENNKillMaggie Dosticset Caroline Kerr+0.9
94-5TENNUKKillAsia Thigpenset Kassie O'Brien+0.8
105-5UKUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+1.3
115-6UKTENNServe errKentucky+0.9
126-6TENNUKKillAsia Thigpenset Molly Tuozzo+0.9
136-7UKTENNKillMaggie Dosticset Raegan Burns+0.9
147-7TENNUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+0.9
157-8UKTENN×3Attack errLizzie Carr+1.0
167-9TENNTENN×3KillKennedi Rogersset Sydney Jaynes+1.5
177-10TENNTENN×3Attack errBrooklyn DeLeye+1.5
188-10TENNUKAttack errKennedi Rogers+0.9
198-11UKTENNKillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr+1.0
209-11TENNUKKillLizzie Carrset Kassie O'Brien+0.9
219-12UKTENNKillCaroline Kerrset Jalyn Stout+1.0
2210-12TENNUK×3Serve errKennedi Rogers+0.9
2311-12UKUK×3KillKennedy Washington+1.5
2412-12UKUK×3KillMorgan Gaerteset Molly Tuozzo+1.6
2512-13UKTENNKillMaggie Dosticset Caroline Kerr+1.2
2613-13TENNUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+1.1
2713-14UKTENNServe errKentucky+1.2
2814-14TENNUKKillAsia Thigpenset Kassie O'Brien+1.2
2915-14UKUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+1.8
3015-15UKTENN×6Attack errBrooklyn DeLeye+1.2
3115-16TENNTENN×6KillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+2.0
3215-17TENNTENN×6AceMaggie Dosticaced Trinity Ward+2.0
3315-18TENNTENN×6Attack errBrooklyn DeLeye+1.9
3415-19TENNTENN×6AceMaggie Dosticaced Trinity Ward+1.6
3515-20TENNTENN×6BlockedBrooklyn DeLeyeblk Jalyn Stout, Camille Perry+1.2
3616-20TENNUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+0.5
3717-20UKUKAttack errCaroline Kerr+1.1
3817-21UKTENNKillCamille Perryset Caroline Kerr+1.1
3918-21TENNUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+0.6
4018-22UKTENN×3Attack errBrooklyn DeLeye+1.1
4118-23TENNTENN×3KillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr+0.9
4218-24TENNTENN×3BlockedMorgan Gaerteblk Caroline Kerr, Chelsea Sutton+0.3
4319-24TENNUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien·
4419-25UKTENNBlockedMorgan Gaerteblk Chelsea Sutton, Kennedi Rogers+0.1
Set 4
10-1TENNTENNAceMaggie Dosticaced Molly Tuozzo+3.0
21-1TENNUKBlockedCamille Perryblk Lizzie Carr+1.9
31-2UKTENN×3KillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+2.1
41-3TENNTENN×3AceEmma Frietchaced Molly Berezowitz+3.2
51-4TENNTENN×3KillChelsea Sutton+3.2
62-4TENNUKServe errEmma Frietch+1.9
72-5UKTENN×3Serve errKentucky+2.2
82-6TENNTENN×3KillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+3.1
92-7TENNTENN×3Attack errMorgan Gaerte+2.9
103-7TENNUKKillLizzie Carrset Kassie O'Brien+1.6
113-8UKTENNKillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr+2.0
124-8TENNUKServe errKennedi Rogers+1.6
134-9UKTENN×3KillChelsea Suttonset Asia Thigpen+2.0
144-10TENNTENN×3Attack errKennedy Washington+2.6
154-11TENNTENN×3Attack errAsia Thigpen+2.1
165-11TENNUKAttack errMaggie Dostic+1.0
175-12UKTENNKillKennedi Rogersset Caroline Kerr+1.4
186-12TENNUK×3Serve errCaroline Kerr+1.0
197-12UKUK×3Attack errMaggie Dostic+1.9
208-12UKUK×3AceKentuckyaced Raegan Burns+2.4
218-13UKTENNKillCamille Perryset Caroline Kerr+2.1
229-13TENNUKKillLizzie Carrset Brooklyn DeLeye+1.6
2310-13UKUKKillLizzie Carrset Kassie O'Brien+2.9
2410-14UKTENN×3KillCaroline Kerrset Kennedi Rogers+2.4
2510-15TENNTENN×3KillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr+3.1
2610-16TENNTENN×3KillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+2.4
2711-16TENNUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+1.1
2811-17UKTENNKillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr+1.6
2912-17TENNUK×3KillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+1.0
3013-17UKUK×3AceKentuckyaced Raegan Burns+2.2
3114-17UKUK×3BlockedKennedi Rogersblk Kennedy Washington, Morgan Gaerte+2.9
3214-18UKTENNAttack errGeorgia Watson+2.6
3315-18TENNUKServe errKennedi Rogers+1.9
3415-19UKTENNAttack errGeorgia Watson+2.7
3516-19TENNUK×3KillGeorgia Watsonset Kassie O'Brien+1.8
3617-19UKUK×3KillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+3.8
3718-19UKUK×3BlockedKennedi Rogersblk Brooklyn DeLeye+4.9
3818-20UKTENNKillMaggie Dosticset Caroline Kerr+4.1
3919-20TENNUKBlockedJalyn Stoutblk Kennedy Washington, Brooklyn DeLeye+3.4
4019-21UKTENNKillCamille Perryset Caroline Kerr+4.5
4120-21TENNUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+3.5
4220-22UKTENNKillCamille Perryset Caroline Kerr+4.9
4320-23TENNTENNAttack errBrooklyn DeLeye+5.9
4421-23TENNUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+2.0
4521-24UKTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Lizzie Carr+4.0
4621-25TENNTENNAttack errKassie O'Brien+3.7
Set 5
10-1UKTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+6.2
21-1TENNUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+5.9
31-2UKTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+6.4
42-2TENNUKKillAsia Thigpenset Kassie O'Brien+6.2
52-3UKTENNAttack errAsia Thigpen+6.7
63-3TENNUKKillAsia Thigpenset Caroline Kerr+6.4
73-4UKTENNKillCaroline Kerrset Jalyn Stout+7.0
83-5TENNTENNKillCamille Perryset Caroline Kerr+10.7
94-5TENNUKKillAsia Thigpenset Kassie O'Brien+6.4
104-6UKTENNKillCamille Perryset Caroline Kerr+7.5
114-7TENNTENNBlockedBrooklyn DeLeyeblk Camille Perry, Jalyn Stout+10.6
125-7TENNUKKillMorgan Gaerteset Kassie O'Brien+5.7
136-7UKUKBlockedCamille Perryblk Bryah Breaux, Lizzie Carr+10.5
146-8UKTENNKillMaggie Dosticset Caroline Kerr+8.4
157-8TENNUKAttack errKennedi Rogers+7.2
167-9UKTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Caroline Kerr+8.9
178-9TENNUKKillBrooklyn DeLeyeset Kassie O'Brien+7.5
188-10UKTENNServe errKentucky+9.6
199-10TENNUKKillAsia Thigpenset Kassie O'Brien+7.8
209-11UKTENN×3KillKennedi Rogersset Kassie O'Brien+10.4
219-12TENNTENN×3KillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr+13.1
229-13TENNTENN×3KillChelsea Suttonset Caroline Kerr+8.7
2310-13TENNUKAttack errChelsea Sutton+2.4
2410-14UKTENNServe errKentucky+5.1
2510-15TENNTENNKillJalyn Stoutset Morgan Gaerte+2.1

Score shown after each rally, Kentucky first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).