FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayWCC

3:0

HomeMOUNTAIN-WEST

Saint Mary's (CA) def. Nevada 3–0

(31-29, 25-19, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
STMARY	31	25	25	3
NEVADA	29	19	20	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NEVADA above 50 · STMARY below

Biggest swing: 9.6% to Nevada — set 1, STMARY 25-26 NEVADA. Bad set by Caitlin Prior. NEVADA win probability 34% → 43%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

STMARY 67.7%32.3% NEVADA

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0

21.7%

3-1

26.0%

3-2

20.0%

Nevada wins

3-0

6.4%

3-1

11.5%

3-2

14.5%

STMARY break %: 44.4% vs this opp
NEVADA break %: 40.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Caitlin PriorBad set+9.6%
Bad set by Caitlin Prior
Set 1 · STMARY 25-26 NEVADA · NEVADA 34% → 43%
02
Hadlee GrayAttack error+9.6%
Attack error by Hadlee Gray
Set 1 · STMARY 28-29 NEVADA · NEVADA 34% → 43%
03
Paige ThiesAttack error+9.0%
Paige Thies stuffed by Ava Galvan & Caroline Formankova
Set 1 · STMARY 24-23 NEVADA · STMARY 64% → 73%
04
Madison LongAttack error+9.0%
Attack error by Madison Long
Set 1 · STMARY 28-27 NEVADA · STMARY 64% → 73%
05
Madison LongAttack error+9.0%
Attack error by Madison Long
Set 1 · STMARY 30-29 NEVADA · STMARY 64% → 73%
06
Paige ThiesAttack error+8.3%
Paige Thies stuffed by Hadlee Gray & Anaya Thrower
Set 1 · STMARY 31-29 NEVADA · STMARY 73% → 81%
07
Paige ThiesAttack error+7.2%
Paige Thies stuffed by Ava Galvan & Makenzie Jackson
Set 1 · STMARY 23-23 NEVADA · STMARY 57% → 64%
08
Jess WalkenhorstAttack error+7.2%
Jess Walkenhorst stuffed by Antonie Kelnárová & Ava Galvan
Set 1 · STMARY 26-26 NEVADA · STMARY 57% → 64%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Saint Mary's (CA)away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
2Antonie KelnárováOH	3	11	10	33	.030	0	11	4	11	1	3	1.5	23.5
4Makenzie JacksonOPP	3	9	5	18	.222	0	0	0	3	0	2	1	10
7Caroline FormankovaOPP	3	1	3	13	-.154	0	6	1	12	3	2	1	8
11Anaya ThrowerMB	3	5	1	11	.364	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	7
10Ava GalvanMB	3	2	3	12	-.083	0	0	0	0	1	5	2.5	4.5
22Caitlin PriorS	3	1	0	1	1.000	18	0	2	9	0	0	0	1
9Layne DentOH	3	3	5	12	-.167	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
21Sadie WhiteS	3	0	0	1	.000	8	2	3	0	0	0	0	2
24Alayna PearsonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	2	9	1	0	0	1
19Maddie WayMB	2	1	0	2	.500	1	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	1.5
1Hadlee GrayOH	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		33	28	105	.048	30	20	12	48	7	20	10	81

Nevadahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Paige ThiesOH	3	5	8	30	-.100	0	2	2	4	6	0	2	1	8
7Ceren SertMB	3	3	1	8	.250	0	0	1	2	0	1	5	3.5	6.5
14Karly BonaventureMB	3	2	1	8	.125	0	0	0	1	0	1	6	4	6
12Keely HummelS	3	1	0	4	.250	13	0	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
8Masyn NavarroL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	2	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	1
16Kamryn TifftOH	2	1	2	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
15Lara PachecoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	3	7	1	0	0	0	2
5Summer SuppikL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	12	3	0	0	0	2
6Madison LongOPP	2	2	3	13	-.077	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	2.5	4.5
19Jess WalkenhorstOPP	2	2	2	8	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
0Malia PilimaiOH	2	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	0.5	2.5
2Mckaley HerrOH	2	0	1	10	-.100	1	0	0	2	4	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		18	18	89	.000	17	7	8	39	20	2	22	13	68

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 STMARY · NEVADA 6

Set 1

31-29

Longest run 5 STMARYNEVADA 6

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 6 STMARYNEVADA 4

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 7 STMARYNEVADA 5

Bars above the line = Nevada leads, below = Saint Mary's (CA) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Saint Mary's (CA)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	38%3/8
2	37%7/19	67%14/21
3	64%7/11	50%7/14
4	33%7/21	50%7/14
5	80%4/5	76%13/17
6	80%4/5	20%1/5
All	51%36/70	57%45/79

Nevada

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	0%0/6
2	47%7/15	61%11/18
3	39%7/18	46%6/13
4	29%5/17	63%12/19
5	67%4/6	44%4/9
6	50%4/8	20%1/5
All	43%34/79	49%34/70

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

149 rallies

Rally log

#	STMARY-NEVADA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NEVADA	STMARY×5	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+1.6
2	2-0	STMARY	STMARY×5	Attack err	Kamryn Tifft		+2.1
3	3-0	STMARY	STMARY×5	Ace	STMARY server	aced Paige Thies	+1.9
4	4-0	STMARY	STMARY×5	Ace	STMARY server	aced Summer Suppik	+1.7
5	5-0	STMARY	STMARY×5	Ace	STMARY server	aced Paige Thies	+1.5
6	5-1	STMARY	NEVADA	Kill	Karly Bonaventure	set Keely Hummel	+1.0
7	6-1	NEVADA	STMARY	Kill	Caitlin Prior		+1.1
8	6-2	STMARY	NEVADA	Serve err	STMARY server		+1.0
9	7-2	NEVADA	STMARY	Serve err	NEVADA server		+1.1
10	8-2	STMARY	STMARY	Ace	STMARY server	aced Madison Long	+1.3
11	8-3	STMARY	NEVADA×4	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.8
12	8-4	NEVADA	NEVADA×4	Bad set	Sadie White		+1.4
13	8-5	NEVADA	NEVADA×4	Kill	Madison Long	set Keely Hummel	+1.7
14	8-6	NEVADA	NEVADA×4	Attack err	Layne Dent		+2.0
15	9-6	NEVADA	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+1.6
16	10-6	STMARY	STMARY	Ace	STMARY server	aced Paige Thies	+1.9
17	10-7	STMARY	NEVADA	Serve err	STMARY server		+1.3
18	10-8	NEVADA	NEVADA	Attack err	Layne Dent		+2.1
19	11-8	NEVADA	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Alayna Pearson	+1.7
20	11-9	STMARY	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Keely Hummel	+1.6
21	12-9	NEVADA	STMARY	Kill	Caroline Formankova	set Sadie White	+1.8
22	12-10	STMARY	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Masyn Navarro	+1.6
23	13-10	NEVADA	STMARY	Bad set	Keely Hummel		+1.8
24	13-11	STMARY	NEVADA×3	Serve err	STMARY server		+1.7
25	13-12	NEVADA	NEVADA×3	Kill	Karly Bonaventure		+2.7
26	13-13	NEVADA	NEVADA×3	Kill	Jess Walkenhorst	set Keely Hummel	+3.1
27	14-13	NEVADA	STMARY	Serve err	NEVADA server		+2.4
28	14-14	STMARY	NEVADA	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson	blk Madison Long, Karly Bonaventure	+2.5
29	15-14	NEVADA	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Caitlin Prior	+2.5
30	16-14	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Jess Walkenhorst	blk Antonie Kelnárová, Anaya Thrower	+3.2
31	16-15	STMARY	NEVADA×6	Serve err	STMARY server		+2.3
32	16-16	NEVADA	NEVADA×6	Attack err	Layne Dent	blk Keely Hummel, Ceren Sert	+3.6
33	16-17	NEVADA	NEVADA×6	Ace	NEVADA server	aced Caroline Formankova	+4.0
34	16-18	NEVADA	NEVADA×6	Attack err	Layne Dent		+4.2
35	16-19	NEVADA	NEVADA×6	Ace	NEVADA server	aced Team	+3.9
36	16-20	NEVADA	NEVADA×6	Attack err	Layne Dent		+3.3
37	17-20	NEVADA	STMARY×3	Attack err	Ceren Sert		+1.7
38	18-20	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	STMARY server	aced Summer Suppik	+3.1
39	19-20	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	STMARY server	aced Paige Thies	+4.1
40	19-21	STMARY	NEVADA	Serve err	STMARY server		+3.9
41	20-21	NEVADA	STMARY	Serve err	NEVADA server		+3.2
42	20-22	STMARY	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Lara Pacheco	+4.3
43	20-23	NEVADA	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Keely Hummel	+4.8
44	21-23	NEVADA	STMARY×4	Serve err	NEVADA server		+2.0
45	22-23	STMARY	STMARY×4	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+4.6
46	23-23	STMARY	STMARY×4	Attack err	Paige Thies	blk Ava Galvan, Makenzie Jackson	+7.2
47	24-23	STMARY	STMARY×4	Attack err	Paige Thies	blk Ava Galvan, Caroline Formankova	+9.0
48	24-24	STMARY	NEVADA	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson	blk Paige Thies, Karly Bonaventure	+6.6
49	25-24	NEVADA	STMARY	Attack err	Paige Thies	blk Ava Galvan, Caroline Formankova	+6.6
50	25-25	STMARY	NEVADA	Kill	Jess Walkenhorst	set Keely Hummel	+6.6
51	25-26	NEVADA	NEVADA	Bad set	Caitlin Prior		+9.6
52	26-26	NEVADA	STMARY	Attack err	Jess Walkenhorst	blk Antonie Kelnárová, Ava Galvan	+7.2
53	26-27	STMARY	NEVADA	Serve err	STMARY server		+7.2
54	27-27	NEVADA	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+7.2
55	28-27	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Madison Long		+9.0
56	28-28	STMARY	NEVADA	Attack err	Caroline Formankova		+6.6
57	28-29	NEVADA	NEVADA	Attack err	Hadlee Gray		+9.6
58	29-29	NEVADA	STMARY×3	Serve err	NEVADA server		+7.2
59	30-29	STMARY	STMARY×3	Attack err	Madison Long		+9.0
60	31-29	STMARY	STMARY×3	Attack err	Paige Thies	blk Hadlee Gray, Anaya Thrower	+8.3
Set 2
1	0-1	STMARY	NEVADA	Serve err	STMARY server		+1.5
2	0-2	NEVADA	NEVADA	Attack err	Ava Galvan		+2.0
3	1-2	NEVADA	STMARY×5	Serve err	NEVADA server		+1.4
4	2-2	STMARY	STMARY×5	Attack err	Mckaley Herr	blk Makenzie Jackson, Ava Galvan	+1.9
5	3-2	STMARY	STMARY×5	Attack err	Karly Bonaventure		+1.9
6	4-2	STMARY	STMARY×5	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+1.8
7	5-2	STMARY	STMARY×5	Ace	STMARY server	aced Mckaley Herr	+1.7
8	5-3	STMARY	NEVADA	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson		+1.2
9	6-3	NEVADA	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+1.3
10	6-4	STMARY	NEVADA	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová	blk Ceren Sert, Jess Walkenhorst	+1.2
11	6-5	NEVADA	NEVADA	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+1.9
12	7-5	NEVADA	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Caitlin Prior	+1.5
13	7-6	STMARY	NEVADA	Kill	Ceren Sert	set Keely Hummel	+1.4
14	8-6	NEVADA	STMARY×3	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+1.5
15	9-6	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	STMARY server	aced Team	+1.9
16	10-6	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	STMARY server	aced Lara Pacheco	+1.6
17	10-7	STMARY	NEVADA	Serve err	STMARY server		+1.1
18	11-7	NEVADA	STMARY	Attack err	Paige Thies		+1.2
19	12-7	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Paige Thies		+1.4
20	12-8	STMARY	NEVADA	Attack err	Caroline Formankova		+0.9
21	13-8	NEVADA	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+1.0
22	13-9	STMARY	NEVADA	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.9
23	13-10	NEVADA	NEVADA	Attack err	Ava Galvan		+1.5
24	14-10	NEVADA	STMARY×3	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+1.3
25	15-10	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+1.4
26	16-10	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+1.1
27	16-11	STMARY	NEVADA×4	Kill	Kamryn Tifft	set Keely Hummel	+0.6
28	16-12	NEVADA	NEVADA×4	Ace	NEVADA server	aced Caroline Formankova	+1.1
29	16-13	NEVADA	NEVADA×4	Ace	NEVADA server	aced Alayna Pearson	+1.5
30	16-14	NEVADA	NEVADA×4	Attack err	Caroline Formankova		+2.0
31	17-14	NEVADA	STMARY×6	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+1.8
32	18-14	STMARY	STMARY×6	Bad set	Keely Hummel		+1.9
33	19-14	STMARY	STMARY×6	Ace	STMARY server	aced Paige Thies	+1.4
34	20-14	STMARY	STMARY×6	Attack err	Kamryn Tifft	blk Anaya Thrower, Antonie Kelnárová	+0.9
35	21-14	STMARY	STMARY×6	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Caitlin Prior	+0.5
36	22-14	STMARY	STMARY×6	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Alayna Pearson	+0.2
37	22-15	STMARY	NEVADA	Kill	Malia Pilimai	set Keely Hummel	+0.1
38	23-15	NEVADA	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Alayna Pearson	+0.1
39	24-15	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+0.0
40	24-16	STMARY	NEVADA×4	Kill	Malia Pilimai	set Keely Hummel	+0.0
41	24-17	NEVADA	NEVADA×4	Ace	NEVADA server	aced Antonie Kelnárová	+0.0
42	24-18	NEVADA	NEVADA×4	Attack err	Anaya Thrower	blk Ceren Sert	+0.0
43	24-19	NEVADA	NEVADA×4	Kill	Ceren Sert	set Keely Hummel	+0.1
44	25-19	NEVADA	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	NEVADA	STMARY×5	Kill	Ava Galvan		+0.8
2	2-0	STMARY	STMARY×5	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+1.0
3	3-0	STMARY	STMARY×5	Kill	Ava Galvan		+0.9
4	4-0	STMARY	STMARY×5	Ace	STMARY server	aced Team	+0.9
5	5-0	STMARY	STMARY×5	Ace	STMARY server	aced Paige Thies	+0.7
6	5-1	STMARY	NEVADA×5	Attack err	Ava Galvan	blk Paige Thies, Karly Bonaventure	+0.5
7	5-2	NEVADA	NEVADA×5	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová	blk Madison Long, Karly Bonaventure	+0.8
8	5-3	NEVADA	NEVADA×5	Ace	NEVADA server	aced Caroline Formankova	+0.9
9	5-4	NEVADA	NEVADA×5	Ace	NEVADA server	aced Ava Galvan	+1.1
10	5-5	NEVADA	NEVADA×5	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+1.2
11	6-5	NEVADA	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+0.9
12	7-5	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Maddie Way	+1.2
13	7-6	STMARY	NEVADA×3	Kill	Madison Long	set Keely Hummel	+0.8
14	7-7	NEVADA	NEVADA×3	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+1.3
15	7-8	NEVADA	NEVADA×3	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová	blk Ceren Sert, Madison Long	+1.4
16	8-8	NEVADA	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+1.0
17	8-9	STMARY	NEVADA	Kill	Ceren Sert	set Keely Hummel	+1.0
18	8-10	NEVADA	NEVADA	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová	blk Malia Pilimai, Ceren Sert	+1.5
19	9-10	NEVADA	STMARY	Serve err	NEVADA server		+1.0
20	9-11	STMARY	NEVADA	Serve err	STMARY server		+1.1
21	10-11	NEVADA	STMARY	Attack err	Paige Thies	blk Layne Dent, Anaya Thrower	+1.0
22	10-12	STMARY	NEVADA	Kill	Paige Thies	set Masyn Navarro	+1.2
23	11-12	NEVADA	STMARY	Attack err	Paige Thies	blk Maddie Way, Layne Dent	+1.1
24	11-13	STMARY	NEVADA	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson	blk Mckaley Herr, Karly Bonaventure	+1.2
25	12-13	NEVADA	STMARY	Kill	Maddie Way	set Caitlin Prior	+1.1
26	12-14	STMARY	NEVADA×3	Kill	Keely Hummel	set Mckaley Herr	+1.3
27	12-15	NEVADA	NEVADA×3	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson	blk Karly Bonaventure	+1.6
28	12-16	NEVADA	NEVADA×3	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová	blk Karly Bonaventure, Madison Long	+1.5
29	13-16	NEVADA	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+0.9
30	14-16	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Madison Long		+1.4
31	14-17	STMARY	NEVADA	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+1.3
32	14-18	NEVADA	NEVADA	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová	blk Ceren Sert, Madison Long	+1.6
33	15-18	NEVADA	STMARY×4	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+0.9
34	16-18	STMARY	STMARY×4	Ace	STMARY server	aced Malia Pilimai	+1.5
35	17-18	STMARY	STMARY×4	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+1.8
36	18-18	STMARY	STMARY×4	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+2.1
37	18-19	STMARY	NEVADA	Serve err	STMARY server		+1.7
38	18-20	NEVADA	NEVADA	Serve err	NEVADA server		+2.3
39	19-20	NEVADA	STMARY×7	Serve err	NEVADA server		+1.5
40	20-20	STMARY	STMARY×7	Ace	STMARY server	aced Mckaley Herr	+2.4
41	21-20	STMARY	STMARY×7	Ace	STMARY server	aced Mckaley Herr	+2.6
42	22-20	STMARY	STMARY×7	Ace	STMARY server	aced Malia Pilimai	+2.4
43	23-20	STMARY	STMARY×7	Ace	STMARY server	aced Summer Suppik	+1.8
44	24-20	STMARY	STMARY×7	Ace	STMARY server	aced Mckaley Herr	+1.0
45	25-20	STMARY	STMARY×7	Ace	STMARY server	aced Malia Pilimai	+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Saint Mary's (CA) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.