Mississippi State vs Tennessee: Tennessee Wins 3-0 (Nov 6)

FinalFri, Nov 6, 2026SECN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Tennessee 86.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 6, 5:25 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Tennessee beat visiting Mississippi St. 3-0 (25-20, 25-14, 29-27) on Fri, Nov 6, 2026. Tennessee's Kennedi Rogers led with 19 kills, and Jalyn Stout added 15 digs.

Data through Nov 10, 6:20 PM CT · final Nov 6

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MISSST	20	14	27	0
TENN	25	25	29	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Kennedi Rogers needed just 3 sets for 19 kills. Tennessee swept Mississippi St.

The biggest single-rally swing was 2.2 points, and Mississippi St.'s high was 17% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Tennessee at 86%.

Mississippi St.Tennessee

Break %+16.5 pts
23.840.3
On serve: 31/77 against 15/63 (Mississippi St. sideout 59.7%).
Hitting+.131
.223.354
Kills and errors: 55–10 vs 39–12.
Longest run+3
36
Tennessee scored 6 straight in the second set to go from 6–6 to a 12–6 lead. That set ended 25–14.

Tennessee above 50Mississippi St. belowMax swing 2.2%

Mississippi St.Tennessee

Aces: Mississippi St. 3·Tennessee 5
Serve err: Mississippi St. 6·Tennessee 9
Blocks: Mississippi St. 5·Tennessee 73 BS · 4 BA vs 1 BS · 12 BA
Digs: Mississippi St. 52·Tennessee 50

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Tennessee above 50 · Mississippi St. below

Biggest swing: 2.2% to Tennessee — set 3, MISSST 25-26 TENN. Bernardita Aguilar stuffed by Kennedi Rogers & Chelsea Sutton. TENN win probability 96% → 98%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MISSST 11.2%88.8% TENN

Mississippi St. wins

3-0

1.5%

3-1

3.5%

3-2

6.2%

Tennessee wins

3-0

42.4%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.8%

MISSST break %: 35.7% vs this opp
TENN break %: 44.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Kennedi Rogers&Chelsea SuttonBlock+2.2%
Bernardita Aguilar stuffed by Kennedi Rogers & Chelsea Sutton
Set 3 · MISSST 25-26 TENN · TENN 96% → 98%
02
Kennedi RogersAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by Kennedi Rogers
Set 1 · MISSST 18-19 TENN · MISSST 11% → 13%
03
Kennedi RogersKill+2.1%
Kill by Kennedi Rogers (set by Caroline Kerr)
Set 1 · MISSST 19-22 TENN · TENN 89% → 91%
04
Kennedi RogersAttack error+1.9%
Attack error by Kennedi Rogers
Set 1 · MISSST 8-7 TENN · MISSST 15% → 16%
05
Jalyn StoutKill+1.9%
Kill by Jalyn Stout (set by Caroline Kerr)
Set 1 · MISSST 19-21 TENN · TENN 87% → 89%
06
Lindsey MangelsonKill+1.8%
Kill by Lindsey Mangelson (set by Mary Neal)
Set 1 · MISSST 14-15 TENN · MISSST 11% → 13%
07
Gha'Naye Whitfield-MossKill+1.8%
Kill by Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss (set by Cayley Hanson)
Set 3 · MISSST 24-23 TENN · MISSST 4% → 6%
08
Jalyn Stout&Anni TangBlock+1.8%
Paloma Routaboul stuffed by Jalyn Stout & Anni Tang
Set 3 · MISSST 24-24 TENN · TENN 94% → 96%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Mississippi St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Gha'Naye Whitfield-MossMB	3	10	3	15	.467	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10
10Paloma RoutaboulOH	3	9	3	37	.162	0	0	0	5	1	0	1	0.5	9.5
20Noella ObiOPP	3	5	0	9	.556	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
3Lindsey MangelsonOH	3	6	2	24	.167	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	1	7
21Ava AndersonMB	2	2	1	5	.200	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
5Erin KlineS	2	0	0	0	–	9	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
1Bernardita AguilarOH	3	7	3	26	.154	1	0	2	5	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
24Cayley HansonS	3	0	0	4	.000	24	1	1	9	0	0	0	0	1
8Mary NealDS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	1	0	7	2	0	0	0	1
4McKenna YatesDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	19	0	0	0	0	0
6Avery PowerDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	12	121	.223	38	3	6	52	5	3	4	5	61

Tennesseehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
0Kennedi RogersOH	3	19	4	44	.341	1	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	19.5
7Jalyn StoutS	3	10	1	17	.529	0	0	1	15	0	0	2	1	11
17Anni TangMB	3	8	2	14	.429	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	3	11
16Chelsea SuttonMB	3	9	3	19	.316	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	10
15Maggie DosticOH	3	5	0	21	.238	1	2	3	12	0	0	2	1	8
11Caroline KerrS	3	4	0	10	.400	34	0	2	8	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
1Emma FrietchL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
13Raegan BurnsL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	5	1	2	7	1	0	0	0	1
14Sydney JaynesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		55	10	127	.354	44	5	9	50	3	1	12	7	79

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 MISSST · TENN 6

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 3 MISSSTTENN 3

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 2 MISSSTTENN 6

Set 3

27-29

Longest run 3 MISSSTTENN 4

Bars above the line = Tennessee leads, below = Mississippi St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Mississippi St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	55%6/11	14%1/7
2	75%6/8	33%3/9
3	63%5/8	25%2/8
4	71%5/7	29%2/7
5	50%5/10	0%0/5
6	56%5/9	17%1/6
All	60%32/53	21%9/42

Tennessee

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%6/8	38%3/8
2	67%6/9	50%6/12
3	86%6/7	25%2/8
4	71%5/7	29%2/7
5	100%5/5	55%6/11
6	83%5/6	29%2/7
All	79%33/42	40%21/53

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

140 rallies

#	MISSST-TENN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.9
2	1-1	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+1.0
3	1-2	MISSST	TENN	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.9
4	1-3	TENN	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Chelsea Sutton	+1.2
5	2-3	TENN	MISSST	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+0.9
6	3-3	MISSST	MISSST	Ace	Mississippi St.		+1.5
7	3-4	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Caroline Kerr	set McKenna Yates	+1.0
8	4-4	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set McKenna Yates	+1.1
9	5-4	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+1.7
10	5-5	MISSST	TENN×3	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Caroline Kerr	+1.1
11	5-6	TENN	TENN×3	Ace	Tennessee	aced Lindsey Mangelson	+1.6
12	5-7	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Caroline Kerr		+1.4
13	6-7	TENN	MISSST×3	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+1.0
14	7-7	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+1.7
15	8-7	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+1.9
16	8-8	MISSST	TENN	Blocked	Lindsey Mangelson	blk Caroline Kerr, Anni Tang	+1.2
17	9-8	TENN	MISSST	Blocked	Anni Tang	blk Ava Anderson	+1.4
18	9-9	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+1.3
19	9-10	TENN	TENN	Ace	Tennessee	aced Mary Neal	+1.8
20	10-10	TENN	MISSST	Attack err	Anni Tang		+1.3
21	10-11	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Kennedi Rogers	+1.2
22	11-11	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+1.4
23	11-12	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Caroline Kerr	+1.3
24	11-13	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss		+1.7
25	12-13	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+1.2
26	12-14	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+1.2
27	12-15	TENN	TENN	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Cayley Hanson	+1.5
28	13-15	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.0
29	14-15	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Mary Neal	+1.8
30	14-16	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Caroline Kerr	set Raegan Burns	+1.3
31	15-16	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.4
32	15-17	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Anni Tang	set Caroline Kerr	+1.4
33	15-18	TENN	TENN	Kill	Anni Tang	set Caroline Kerr	+1.7
34	16-18	TENN	MISSST	Serve err	Tennessee		+1.0
35	16-19	MISSST	TENN	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+1.2
36	17-19	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+1.0
37	18-19	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+2.2
38	18-20	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+1.7
39	19-20	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+1.6
40	19-21	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+1.9
41	19-22	TENN	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+2.1
42	20-22		MISSST	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+1.0
43	20-23	MISSST	TENN×3	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+1.4
44	20-24	TENN	TENN×3	Blocked	Bernardita Aguilar	blk Chelsea Sutton, Maggie Dostic	+1.0
45	20-25	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Raegan Burns	+0.3
Set 2
1	0-1	TENN	TENN	Ace	Tennessee	aced Mary Neal	+0.9
2	1-1	TENN	MISSST	Serve err	Tennessee		+0.7
3	2-1	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.1
4	2-2	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Anni Tang	set Caroline Kerr	+0.7
5	3-2	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Ava Anderson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.8
6	4-2	MISSST	MISSST	Blocked	Jalyn Stout	blk Lindsey Mangelson	+1.3
7	4-3	MISSST	TENN×3	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.8
8	4-4	TENN	TENN×3	Attack err	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss		+1.1
9	4-5	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Kennedi Rogers		+1.1
10	5-5	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set McKenna Yates	+0.8
11	5-6	MISSST	TENN	Attack err	Ava Anderson		+0.7
12	6-6	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+0.8
13	6-7	MISSST	TENN×6	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Caroline Kerr	+0.8
14	6-8	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+1.0
15	6-9	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Anni Tang		+0.9
16	6-10	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Anni Tang	set Caroline Kerr	+0.7
17	6-11	TENN	TENN×6	Ace	Tennessee	aced Paloma Routaboul	+0.6
18	6-12	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Paloma Routaboul	+0.4
19	7-12	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+0.2
20	7-13	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Raegan Burns	+0.3
21	8-13	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
22	8-14	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.3
23	9-14	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
24	9-15	MISSST	TENN×3	Kill	Anni Tang	set Caroline Kerr	+0.3
25	9-16	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Emma Frietch	+0.3
26	9-17	TENN	TENN×3	Ace	Tennessee		+0.2
27	10-17	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.1
28	10-18	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
29	11-18	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Ava Anderson	set Erin Kline	+0.1
30	11-19	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Caroline Kerr	set Erin Kline	+0.1
31	11-20	TENN	TENN	Bad set	Erin Kline		+0.1
32	12-20	TENN	MISSST	Blocked	Chelsea Sutton	blk Paloma Routaboul, Ava Anderson	·
33	12-21	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Caroline Kerr	·
34	13-21	TENN	MISSST	Serve err	Tennessee		·
35	13-22	MISSST	TENN×3	Kill	Anni Tang	set Caroline Kerr	·
36	13-23	TENN	TENN×3	Blocked	Paloma Routaboul	blk Jalyn Stout, Anni Tang	·
37	13-24	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	·
38	14-24	TENN	MISSST	Serve err	Tennessee		·
39	14-25	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	·
Set 3
1	1-0	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.5
2	1-1	MISSST	TENN×4	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.4
3	1-2	TENN	TENN×4	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Maggie Dostic	+0.5
4	1-3	TENN	TENN×4	Attack err	Paloma Routaboul		+0.4
5	1-4	TENN	TENN×4	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.4
6	2-4	TENN	MISSST×3	Blocked	Chelsea Sutton	blk Noella Obi	+0.3
7	3-4	MISSST	MISSST×3	Blocked	Chelsea Sutton	blk Bernardita Aguilar, Noella Obi	+0.5
8	4-4	MISSST	MISSST×3	Ace	Mississippi St.		+0.5
9	4-5	MISSST	TENN	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.4
10	5-5	TENN	MISSST	Serve err	Tennessee		+0.4
11	5-6	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Chelsea Sutton	+0.4
12	6-6	TENN	MISSST	Serve err	Tennessee		+0.4
13	6-7	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Caroline Kerr	+0.4
14	6-8	TENN	TENN	Blocked	Bernardita Aguilar	blk Anni Tang	+0.5
15	7-8	TENN	MISSST	Serve err	Tennessee		+0.4
16	7-9	MISSST	TENN	Blocked	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	blk Maggie Dostic, Anni Tang	+0.4
17	8-9	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
18	9-9	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
19	9-10	MISSST	TENN	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.4
20	9-11	TENN	TENN	Kill	Anni Tang	set Noella Obi	+0.6
21	10-11	TENN	MISSST	Serve err	Tennessee		+0.4
22	10-12	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.4
23	11-12	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
24	11-13	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.4
25	12-13	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
26	13-13	MISSST	MISSST	Ace	Mississippi St.	aced Raegan Burns	+0.7
27	13-14	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.5
28	14-14	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Bernardita Aguilar	+0.6
29	14-15	MISSST	TENN	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.5
30	15-15	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
31	15-16	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.6
32	16-16	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
33	16-17	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Raegan Burns	+0.6
34	16-18	TENN	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.8
35	17-18	TENN	MISSST	Serve err	Tennessee		+0.5
36	17-19	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
37	18-19	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.5
38	18-20	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Raegan Burns	+0.6
39	19-20	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set McKenna Yates	+0.6
40	19-21	MISSST	TENN	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.7
41	20-21	TENN	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.6
42	21-21	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Cayley Hanson	+1.3
43	22-21	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Cayley Hanson	+1.7
44	22-22	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Cayley Hanson	+1.1
45	23-22	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Cayley Hanson	+1.4
46	23-23	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+1.3
47	24-23	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Cayley Hanson	+1.8
48	24-24	MISSST	TENN	Blocked	Paloma Routaboul	blk Jalyn Stout, Anni Tang	+1.8
49	25-24	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+1.8
50	25-25	MISSST	TENN	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+1.8
51	25-26	TENN	TENN	Blocked	Bernardita Aguilar	blk Kennedi Rogers, Chelsea Sutton	+2.2
52	26-26	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set McKenna Yates	+1.5
53	26-27	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+1.5
54	27-27	TENN	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+1.5
55	27-28	MISSST	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+1.5
56	27-29	TENN	TENN	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Cayley Hanson	+1.8

Score shown after each rally, Mississippi St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Tennessee def. Mississippi St. 3–0

Kennedi Rogers needed just 3 sets for 19 kills. Tennessee swept Mississippi St.