FinalThu, Sep 10, 2026

AwayWCC

3:0

HomeBIG-SKY

Saint Mary's (CA) def. Eastern Wash. 3–0

(25-23, 25-23, 25-23)

Set	1	2*	3*	Sets
STMARY	25	25	25	3
E WASH	23	23	23	0

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

E WASH above 50 · STMARY below

Biggest swing: 8.4% to Saint Mary's (CA) — set 1, STMARY 24-23 E WASH. Aspyn Reed stuffed by Anaya Thrower & Layne Dent. E WASH win probability 32% → 24%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

STMARY 71.0%29.0% E WASH

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0

24.0%

3-1

27.3%

3-2

19.8%

Eastern Wash. wins

3-0

5.4%

3-1

10.1%

3-2

13.4%

STMARY break %: 46.8% vs this opp
E WASH break %: 42.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Aspyn ReedAttack error+8.4%
Aspyn Reed stuffed by Anaya Thrower & Layne Dent
Set 1 · STMARY 24-23 E WASH · STMARY 68% → 76%
02
Anaya ThrowerKill+7.7%
Kill by Anaya Thrower (set by Sadie White)
Set 1 · STMARY 25-23 E WASH · STMARY 76% → 84%
03
Makenzie JacksonAttack error+7.1%
Attack error by Makenzie Jackson
Set 1 · STMARY 22-23 E WASH · E WASH 31% → 38%
04
Kalista LukovichAttack error+6.3%
Attack error by Kalista Lukovich
Set 2 · STMARY 25-23 E WASH · STMARY 88% → 94%
05
Hadlee GrayKill+5.5%
Kill by Hadlee Gray (set by Caitlin Prior)
Set 2 · STMARY 24-23 E WASH · STMARY 82% → 88%
06
Antonie KelnárováKill+5.5%
Kill by Antonie Kelnárová (set by Caitlin Prior)
Set 1 · STMARY 22-21 E WASH · STMARY 68% → 74%
07
Aspyn ReedAttack error+5.4%
Aspyn Reed stuffed by Anaya Thrower & Makenzie Jackson
Set 1 · STMARY 23-23 E WASH · STMARY 62% → 68%
08
Jailyn DavenportBad set+5.4%
Bad set by Jailyn Davenport
Set 2 · STMARY 23-22 E WASH · STMARY 81% → 87%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Saint Mary's (CA)away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
2Antonie KelnárováOH	3	14	7	37	.189	1	2	3	8	2	2	1	17
11Anaya ThrowerMB	3	6	2	11	.364	1	0	0	2	0	5	2.5	8.5
7Caroline FormankovaOPP	3	4	4	13	.000	0	1	0	6	1	0	0	5
10Ava GalvanMB	3	5	2	12	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5
22Caitlin PriorS	3	0	1	3	-.333	29	3	1	6	0	0	0	3
4Makenzie JacksonOPP	2	4	4	11	.000	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	5
9Layne DentOH	3	3	4	14	-.071	1	0	0	5	0	1	0.5	3.5
21Sadie WhiteS	3	1	0	5	.200	12	0	1	4	0	0	0	1
24Alayna PearsonL/DS	3	0	1	2	-.500	2	1	2	12	0	0	0	1
1Hadlee GrayOH	2	10	2	21	.381	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	10
12Natalie PeeteL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	27	129	.155	46	7	7	54	3	10	5	75

Eastern Wash.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Aspyn ReedOH	3	9	6	26	.115	1	0	1	6	1	1	3	2.5	11.5
9Kalista LukovichOH	3	6	5	34	.029	3	3	1	4	1	0	1	0.5	9.5
8Sidney GrayMB	3	3	1	9	.222	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	5
11Judith BolomboyMB	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	2.5	2.5
6Jailyn DavenportS	3	1	0	10	.100	15	0	1	1	0	0	2	1	2
4Reese BetschartOH	3	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	0	1
12Bria CarlisleMB	3	3	2	8	.125	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
14Elle BruegmanDS	3	0	0	2	.000	3	0	0	14	2	0	0	0	0
2Jade LivingstonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Stephanie GroswirtS	1	3	0	6	.500	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3
10Makena GambyS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Quincy MoranOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		26	14	99	.121	23	3	5	40	7	1	18	10	69

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 STMARY · E WASH 6

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 3 STMARYE WASH 4

Set 2*

25-23

Longest run 3 STMARYE WASH 4

Set 3*

25-23

Longest run 5 STMARYE WASH 6

Bars above the line = Eastern Wash. leads, below = Saint Mary's (CA) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Saint Mary's (CA)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%3/4	40%2/5
2	50%3/6	25%1/4
3	43%3/7	50%3/6
4	100%2/2	60%3/5
5	100%2/2	33%1/3
6	100%2/2	0%0/2
All	65%15/23	40%10/25

Eastern Wash.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%3/5	0%0/2
2	75%3/4	25%1/4
3	50%3/6	50%3/6
4	40%2/5	57%4/7
5	67%2/3	0%0/2
6	100%2/2	0%0/2
All	60%15/25	35%8/23

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

144 rallies

Rally log

#	STMARY-E WASH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Kalista Lukovich		+2.0
2	1-1	STMARY	E WASH	Attack err	Caroline Formankova		+1.6
3	2-1	E WASH	STMARY	Serve err	E WASH server		+1.6
4	2-2	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Kalista Lukovich	set Jailyn Davenport	+1.7
5	3-2	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+1.6
6	4-2	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+2.0
7	4-3	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Kalista Lukovich	+1.6
8	4-4	E WASH	E WASH	Attack err	Caitlin Prior	blk Aspyn Reed, Judith Bolomboy	+2.2
9	5-4	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Sadie White	set Caitlin Prior	+1.7
10	6-4	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Bria Carlisle	blk Antonie Kelnárová, Anaya Thrower	+2.1
11	6-5	STMARY	E WASH	Attack err	Bria Carlisle		+1.7
12	7-5	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+1.7
13	8-5	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Kalista Lukovich		+1.9
14	8-6	STMARY	E WASH	Attack err	Caroline Formankova		+1.5
15	9-6	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Caroline Formankova	set Layne Dent	+1.6
16	9-7	STMARY	E WASH	Bad set	Antonie Kelnárová		+1.5
17	10-7	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+1.6
18	10-8	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Sidney Gray	set Jailyn Davenport	+1.6
19	10-9	E WASH	E WASH	Attack err	Ava Galvan	blk Sidney Gray, Bria Carlisle	+2.3
20	11-9	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Caroline Formankova	set Caitlin Prior	+1.9
21	12-9	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+2.2
22	12-10	STMARY	E WASH×4	Kill	Bria Carlisle	set Jailyn Davenport	+1.6
23	12-11	E WASH	E WASH×4	Ace	E WASH server	aced Caroline Formankova	+2.4
24	12-12	E WASH	E WASH×4	Attack err	Alayna Pearson		+2.8
25	12-13	E WASH	E WASH×4	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson		+3.0
26	13-13	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+2.4
27	13-14	STMARY	E WASH×3	Kill	Sidney Gray	set Jailyn Davenport	+2.6
28	13-15	E WASH	E WASH×3	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Jailyn Davenport	+3.3
29	13-16	E WASH	E WASH×3	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+3.3
30	14-16	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+2.2
31	14-17	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Bria Carlisle	set Jailyn Davenport	+2.8
32	15-17	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+2.3
33	15-18	STMARY	E WASH	Serve err	STMARY server		+2.9
34	16-18	E WASH	STMARY	Serve err	E WASH server		+2.3
35	16-19	STMARY	E WASH	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+3.0
36	17-19	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Caroline Formankova	set Sadie White	+2.4
37	18-19	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Alayna Pearson	+3.6
38	18-20	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Jailyn Davenport		+3.6
39	19-20	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Caitlin Prior	+3.1
40	19-21	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Sidney Gray	set Jailyn Davenport	+4.0
41	20-21	E WASH	STMARY×3	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Caitlin Prior	+3.3
42	21-21	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+5.0
43	22-21	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+5.5
44	22-22	STMARY	E WASH	Serve err	STMARY server		+4.5
45	22-23	E WASH	E WASH	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson		+7.1
46	23-23	E WASH	STMARY×3	Attack err	Aspyn Reed	blk Anaya Thrower, Makenzie Jackson	+5.4
47	24-23	STMARY	STMARY×3	Attack err	Aspyn Reed	blk Anaya Thrower, Layne Dent	+8.4
48	25-23	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+7.7
Set 2
1	1-0	E WASH	STMARY×3	Serve err	E WASH server		+1.3
2	2-0	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+1.5
3	3-0	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	STMARY server	aced Elle Bruegman	+1.4
4	3-1	STMARY	E WASH	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson	blk Sidney Gray, Kalista Lukovich	+1.1
5	4-1	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+1.2
6	4-2	STMARY	E WASH	Bad set	Makenzie Jackson		+1.1
7	4-3	E WASH	E WASH	Kill	Bria Carlisle		+1.6
8	5-3	E WASH	STMARY×3	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+1.3
9	6-3	STMARY	STMARY×3	Attack err	Aspyn Reed		+1.5
10	7-3	STMARY	STMARY×3	Attack err	Sidney Gray		+1.4
11	7-4	STMARY	E WASH×4	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+1.0
12	7-5	E WASH	E WASH×4	Attack err	Anaya Thrower		+1.5
13	7-6	E WASH	E WASH×4	Bad set	Sadie White		+1.7
14	7-7	E WASH	E WASH×4	Attack err	Anaya Thrower	blk Bria Carlisle, Judith Bolomboy	+1.9
15	8-7	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+1.5
16	8-8	STMARY	E WASH×4	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Kalista Lukovich	+1.6
17	8-9	E WASH	E WASH×4	Attack err	Caroline Formankova		+2.2
18	8-10	E WASH	E WASH×4	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová	blk Judith Bolomboy, Jailyn Davenport	+2.3
19	8-11	E WASH	E WASH×4	Attack err	Hadlee Gray		+2.3
20	9-11	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+1.6
21	10-11	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Anaya Thrower	+2.2
22	10-12	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Kalista Lukovich	set Jailyn Davenport	+2.0
23	11-12	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+1.8
24	11-13	STMARY	E WASH	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson		+2.0
25	12-13	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Caitlin Prior	+1.9
26	12-14	STMARY	E WASH	Bad set	Caitlin Prior		+2.1
27	12-15	E WASH	E WASH	Kill	Kalista Lukovich	set Jailyn Davenport	+2.6
28	13-15	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+1.8
29	14-15	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Kalista Lukovich	blk Anaya Thrower, Makenzie Jackson	+2.5
30	14-16	STMARY	E WASH	Serve err	STMARY server		+2.3
31	15-16	E WASH	STMARY×3	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Caitlin Prior	+2.1
32	16-16	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Hadlee Gray	+2.8
33	17-16	STMARY	STMARY×3	Attack err	Bria Carlisle	blk Antonie Kelnárová, Anaya Thrower	+2.8
34	17-17	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Elle Bruegman	+2.4
35	17-18	E WASH	E WASH	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Jailyn Davenport	+3.3
36	18-18	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+2.5
37	19-18	STMARY	STMARY	Ace	STMARY server	aced Aspyn Reed	+3.3
38	19-19	STMARY	E WASH	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+2.7
39	20-19	E WASH	STMARY	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+2.8
40	20-20	STMARY	E WASH	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová	blk Jailyn Davenport, Judith Bolomboy	+2.9
41	20-21	E WASH	E WASH	Attack err	Hadlee Gray		+4.3
42	21-21	E WASH	STMARY	Attack err	Aspyn Reed		+3.3
43	21-22	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Kalista Lukovich	set Jailyn Davenport	+4.0
44	22-22	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+3.7
45	23-22	STMARY	STMARY	Bad set	Jailyn Davenport		+5.4
46	23-23	STMARY	E WASH	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+4.3
47	24-23	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Caitlin Prior	+5.5
48	25-23	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Kalista Lukovich		+6.3
Set 3
1	0-1	STMARY	E WASH×3	Kill	Kalista Lukovich	set Aspyn Reed	+0.8
2	0-2	E WASH	E WASH×3	Attack err	Layne Dent		+1.0
3	0-3	E WASH	E WASH×3	Attack err	Layne Dent	blk Sidney Gray, Bria Carlisle	+1.0
4	1-3	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+0.7
5	1-4	STMARY	E WASH	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.8
6	1-5	E WASH	E WASH	Attack err	Layne Dent		+1.0
7	2-5	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Sadie White	+0.7
8	2-6	STMARY	E WASH	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová	blk Aspyn Reed	+0.9
9	3-6	E WASH	STMARY×3	Attack err	Aspyn Reed		+0.7
10	4-6	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	STMARY server	aced Reese Betschart	+1.0
11	5-6	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	STMARY server	aced Team	+1.0
12	5-7	STMARY	E WASH	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.9
13	6-7	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Caitlin Prior	+0.8
14	7-7	STMARY	STMARY	Bad set	Kalista Lukovich		+1.1
15	7-8	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Kalista Lukovich	set Jailyn Davenport	+0.9
16	8-8	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Alayna Pearson	+0.9
17	8-9	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Reese Betschart	set Jailyn Davenport	+1.0
18	9-9	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+0.9
19	9-10	STMARY	E WASH×6	Serve err	STMARY server		+1.0
20	9-11	E WASH	E WASH×6	Ace	E WASH server	aced Antonie Kelnárová	+1.3
21	9-12	E WASH	E WASH×6	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Elle Bruegman	+1.3
22	9-13	E WASH	E WASH×6	Attack err	Layne Dent	blk Sidney Gray, Aspyn Reed	+1.2
23	9-14	E WASH	E WASH×6	Bad set	Antonie Kelnárová		+1.1
24	9-15	E WASH	E WASH×6	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.9
25	10-15	E WASH	STMARY	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.6
26	10-16	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Stephanie Groswirt	set Elle Bruegman	+0.8
27	11-16	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Caitlin Prior	+0.5
28	12-16	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Aspyn Reed		+0.9
29	12-17	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Jailyn Davenport	+0.9
30	13-17	E WASH	STMARY×3	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Caitlin Prior	+0.7
31	14-17	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	STMARY server	aced Kalista Lukovich	+1.1
32	15-17	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Caroline Formankova	set Antonie Kelnárová	+1.3
33	15-18	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Stephanie Groswirt	+1.3
34	16-18	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Caitlin Prior	+1.0
35	16-19	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Jailyn Davenport	+1.4
36	17-19	E WASH	STMARY	Serve err	E WASH server		+1.1
37	18-19	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+1.6
38	18-20	STMARY	E WASH	Bad set	Ava Galvan		+1.6
39	19-20	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+1.4
40	19-21	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Stephanie Groswirt	set Kalista Lukovich	+1.8
41	20-21	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+1.5
42	20-22	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Stephanie Groswirt	set Caroline Formankova	+2.0
43	20-23	E WASH	E WASH	Attack err	Ava Galvan	blk Aspyn Reed, Judith Bolomboy	+2.1
44	21-23	E WASH	STMARY×5	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Caitlin Prior	+1.0
45	22-23	STMARY	STMARY×5	Attack err	Kalista Lukovich		+2.0
46	23-23	STMARY	STMARY×5	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Caitlin Prior	+3.0
47	24-23	STMARY	STMARY×5	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Caitlin Prior	+3.8
48	25-23	STMARY	STMARY×5	Ace	STMARY server	aced Elle Bruegman	+3.4

Score shown after each rally, Saint Mary's (CA) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.