Saint Mary's (CA) def. Eastern Wash. 3-0 Volleyball (Sep 10)

FinalThu, Sep 10, 2026 · Neutral site

3:0

Saint Mary's (CA) beat Eastern Wash. 3-0 (25-23, 25-23, 25-23) on Thu, Sep 10, 2026 at a neutral site. Saint Mary's (CA)'s Antonie Kelnárová led with 14 kills, and Alayna Pearson added 12 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 1:50 PM CT · final Sep 10

Set	1	2	3	Sets
STMARY	25	25	25	3
E WASH	23	23	23	0

Win probability

Eastern Wash. above 50 · Saint Mary's (CA) below

Biggest swing: 5.6% to Saint Mary's (CA) — set 1, STMARY 24-23 E WASH. Aspyn Reed stuffed by Anaya Thrower & Layne Dent. E WASH win probability 16% → 11%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

STMARY 87.5%12.5% E WASH

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0

40.5%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

15.4%

Eastern Wash. wins

3-0

1.8%

3-1

3.9%

3-2

6.8%

STMARY break %: 48.7% vs this opp
E WASH break %: 39.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Anaya Thrower&Layne DentBlock+5.6%
Aspyn Reed stuffed by Anaya Thrower & Layne Dent
Set 1 · STMARY 24-23 E WASH · STMARY 84% → 89%
02
Makenzie JacksonAttack error+5.1%
Attack error by Makenzie Jackson
Set 1 · STMARY 22-23 E WASH · E WASH 15% → 20%
03
Anaya ThrowerKill+4.6%
Kill by Anaya Thrower (set by Sadie White)
Set 1 · STMARY 25-23 E WASH · STMARY 89% → 94%
04
Anaya Thrower&Makenzie JacksonBlock+3.7%
Aspyn Reed stuffed by Anaya Thrower & Makenzie Jackson
Set 1 · STMARY 23-23 E WASH · STMARY 80% → 84%
05
Antonie KelnárováKill+3.6%
Kill by Antonie Kelnárová (set by Caitlin Prior)
Set 1 · STMARY 22-21 E WASH · STMARY 84% → 88%
06
Antonie KelnárováKill+3.5%
Kill by Antonie Kelnárová (set by Caitlin Prior)
Set 1 · STMARY 21-21 E WASH · STMARY 81% → 84%
07
Kalista LukovichAttack error+3.2%
Attack error by Kalista Lukovich
Set 2 · STMARY 25-23 E WASH · STMARY 95% → 98%
08
Hadlee GrayKill+3.1%
Kill by Hadlee Gray (set by Caitlin Prior)
Set 2 · STMARY 24-23 E WASH · STMARY 92% → 95%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Saint Mary's (CA)away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
2Antonie KelnárováOH	3	14	7	37	.189	1	2	3	8	2	2	1	17
11Anaya ThrowerMB	3	6	2	11	.364	1	0	0	2	0	5	2.5	8.5
7Caroline FormankovaOPP	3	4	4	13	.000	0	1	0	6	1	0	0	5
10Ava GalvanMB	3	5	2	12	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5
22Caitlin PriorS	3	0	1	3	-.333	29	3	1	6	0	0	0	3
4Makenzie JacksonOPP	2	4	4	11	.000	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	5
9Layne DentOH	3	3	4	14	-.071	1	0	0	5	0	1	0.5	3.5
21Sadie WhiteS	3	1	0	5	.200	12	0	1	4	0	0	0	1
24Alayna PearsonL/DS	3	0	1	2	-.500	2	1	2	12	0	0	0	1
1Hadlee GrayOH	2	10	2	21	.381	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	10
12Natalie PeeteL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	27	129	.155	46	7	7	54	3	10	5	75

Eastern Wash.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Aspyn ReedOH	3	9	6	26	.115	1	0	1	6	1	1	3	2.5	11.5
9Kalista LukovichOH	3	6	5	34	.029	3	3	1	4	1	0	1	0.5	9.5
8Sidney GrayMB	3	3	1	9	.222	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	5
11Judith BolomboyMB	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	2.5	2.5
6Jailyn DavenportS	3	1	0	10	.100	15	0	1	1	0	0	2	1	2
4Reese BetschartOH	3	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	0	1
12Bria CarlisleMB	3	3	2	8	.125	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
14Elle BruegmanDS	3	0	0	2	.000	3	0	0	14	2	0	0	0	0
2Jade LivingstonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Stephanie GroswirtS	1	3	0	6	.500	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3
10Makena GambyS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Quincy MoranOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		26	14	99	.121	23	3	5	40	7	1	18	10	69

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 STMARY · E WASH 6

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 3 STMARYE WASH 4

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 3 STMARYE WASH 4

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 5 STMARYE WASH 6

Bars above the line = Eastern Wash. leads, below = Saint Mary's (CA) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Saint Mary's (CA)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%3/4	40%2/5
2	50%3/6	25%1/4
3	43%3/7	50%3/6
4	100%2/2	60%3/5
5	100%2/2	33%1/3
6	100%2/2	0%0/2
All	65%15/23	40%10/25

Eastern Wash.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%3/5	0%0/2
2	75%3/4	25%1/4
3	50%3/6	50%3/6
4	40%2/5	57%4/7
5	67%2/3	0%0/2
6	100%2/2	0%0/2
All	60%15/25	35%8/23

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

144 rallies

#	STMARY-E WASH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Kalista Lukovich		+1.1
2	1-1	STMARY	E WASH	Attack err	Caroline Formankova		+1.0
3	2-1	E WASH	STMARY	Serve err	Eastern Wash.		+0.9
4	2-2	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Kalista Lukovich	set Jailyn Davenport	+1.0
5	3-2	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+0.9
6	4-2	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+1.1
7	4-3	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Kalista Lukovich	+0.9
8	4-4	E WASH	E WASH	Blocked	Caitlin Prior	blk Aspyn Reed, Judith Bolomboy	+1.3
9	5-4	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Sadie White	set Caitlin Prior	+1.0
10	6-4	STMARY	STMARY	Blocked	Bria Carlisle	blk Antonie Kelnárová, Anaya Thrower	+1.2
11	6-5	STMARY	E WASH	Attack err	Bria Carlisle		+1.0
12	7-5	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+0.9
13	8-5	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Kalista Lukovich		+1.0
14	8-6	STMARY	E WASH	Attack err	Caroline Formankova		+0.8
15	9-6	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Caroline Formankova	set Layne Dent	+0.8
16	9-7	STMARY	E WASH	Bad set	Antonie Kelnárová		+0.8
17	10-7	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+0.9
18	10-8	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Sidney Gray	set Jailyn Davenport	+0.9
19	10-9	E WASH	E WASH	Blocked	Ava Galvan	blk Sidney Gray, Bria Carlisle	+1.3
20	11-9	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Caroline Formankova	set Caitlin Prior	+1.1
21	12-9	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+1.2
22	12-10	STMARY	E WASH×4	Kill	Bria Carlisle	set Jailyn Davenport	+0.9
23	12-11	E WASH	E WASH×4	Ace	Eastern Wash.	aced Caroline Formankova	+1.4
24	12-12	E WASH	E WASH×4	Attack err	Alayna Pearson		+1.8
25	12-13	E WASH	E WASH×4	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson		+2.0
26	13-13	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+1.5
27	13-14	STMARY	E WASH×3	Kill	Sidney Gray	set Jailyn Davenport	+1.7
28	13-15	E WASH	E WASH×3	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Jailyn Davenport	+2.4
29	13-16	E WASH	E WASH×3	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+2.5
30	14-16	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+1.6
31	14-17	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Bria Carlisle	set Jailyn Davenport	+2.1
32	15-17	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+1.7
33	15-18	STMARY	E WASH	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+2.2
34	16-18	E WASH	STMARY	Serve err	Eastern Wash.		+1.7
35	16-19	STMARY	E WASH	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+2.3
36	17-19	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Caroline Formankova	set Sadie White	+1.8
37	18-19	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Alayna Pearson	+2.6
38	18-20	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Jailyn Davenport		+2.7
39	19-20	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Caitlin Prior	+2.2
40	19-21	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Sidney Gray	set Jailyn Davenport	+3.0
41	20-21	E WASH	STMARY×3	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Caitlin Prior	+2.3
42	21-21	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+3.5
43	22-21	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+3.6
44	22-22	STMARY	E WASH	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+3.0
45	22-23	E WASH	E WASH	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson		+5.1
46	23-23	E WASH	STMARY×3	Blocked	Aspyn Reed	blk Anaya Thrower, Makenzie Jackson	+3.7
47	24-23	STMARY	STMARY×3	Blocked	Aspyn Reed	blk Anaya Thrower, Layne Dent	+5.6
48	25-23	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+4.6
Set 2
1	1-0	E WASH	STMARY×3	Serve err	Eastern Wash.		+0.6
2	2-0	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+0.7
3	3-0	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	Saint Mary's (CA)	aced Elle Bruegman	+0.6
4	3-1	STMARY	E WASH	Blocked	Makenzie Jackson	blk Sidney Gray, Kalista Lukovich	+0.5
5	4-1	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+0.5
6	4-2	STMARY	E WASH	Bad set	Makenzie Jackson		+0.5
7	4-3	E WASH	E WASH	Kill	Bria Carlisle		+0.8
8	5-3	E WASH	STMARY×3	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Caitlin Prior	+0.6
9	6-3	STMARY	STMARY×3	Attack err	Aspyn Reed		+0.7
10	7-3	STMARY	STMARY×3	Attack err	Sidney Gray		+0.6
11	7-4	STMARY	E WASH×4	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+0.5
12	7-5	E WASH	E WASH×4	Attack err	Anaya Thrower		+0.7
13	7-6	E WASH	E WASH×4	Bad set	Sadie White		+0.9
14	7-7	E WASH	E WASH×4	Blocked	Anaya Thrower	blk Bria Carlisle, Judith Bolomboy	+1.0
15	8-7	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+0.8
16	8-8	STMARY	E WASH×4	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Kalista Lukovich	+0.9
17	8-9	E WASH	E WASH×4	Attack err	Caroline Formankova		+1.2
18	8-10	E WASH	E WASH×4	Blocked	Antonie Kelnárová	blk Judith Bolomboy, Jailyn Davenport	+1.3
19	8-11	E WASH	E WASH×4	Attack err	Hadlee Gray		+1.4
20	9-11	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+1.0
21	10-11	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Anaya Thrower	+1.3
22	10-12	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Kalista Lukovich	set Jailyn Davenport	+1.2
23	11-12	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+1.0
24	11-13	STMARY	E WASH	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson		+1.2
25	12-13	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Caitlin Prior	+1.1
26	12-14	STMARY	E WASH	Bad set	Caitlin Prior		+1.3
27	12-15	E WASH	E WASH	Kill	Kalista Lukovich	set Jailyn Davenport	+1.7
28	13-15	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+1.1
29	14-15	STMARY	STMARY	Blocked	Kalista Lukovich	blk Anaya Thrower, Makenzie Jackson	+1.5
30	14-16	STMARY	E WASH	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+1.4
31	15-16	E WASH	STMARY×3	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Caitlin Prior	+1.2
32	16-16	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Hadlee Gray	+1.6
33	17-16	STMARY	STMARY×3	Blocked	Bria Carlisle	blk Antonie Kelnárová, Anaya Thrower	+1.5
34	17-17	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Elle Bruegman	+1.3
35	17-18	E WASH	E WASH	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Jailyn Davenport	+1.9
36	18-18	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+1.4
37	19-18	STMARY	STMARY	Ace	Saint Mary's (CA)	aced Aspyn Reed	+1.8
38–39	20-19		STMARY · E WASH	NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			·
40	20-20	STMARY	E WASH	Blocked	Antonie Kelnárová	blk Jailyn Davenport, Judith Bolomboy	+1.7
41	20-21	E WASH	E WASH	Attack err	Hadlee Gray		+2.6
42	21-21	E WASH	STMARY	Attack err	Aspyn Reed		+1.9
43	21-22	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Kalista Lukovich	set Jailyn Davenport	+2.4
44	22-22	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+2.2
45	23-22	STMARY	STMARY	Bad set	Jailyn Davenport		+3.0
46	23-23	STMARY	E WASH	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+2.4
47	24-23	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Caitlin Prior	+3.1
48	25-23	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Kalista Lukovich		+3.2
Set 3
1	0-1	STMARY	E WASH×3	Kill	Kalista Lukovich	set Aspyn Reed	+0.4
2	0-2	E WASH	E WASH×3	Attack err	Layne Dent		+0.5
3	0-3	E WASH	E WASH×3	Blocked	Layne Dent	blk Sidney Gray, Bria Carlisle	+0.5
4	1-3	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+0.4
5	1-4	STMARY	E WASH	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+0.4
6	1-5	E WASH	E WASH	Attack err	Layne Dent		+0.6
7	2-5	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Sadie White	+0.4
8	2-6	STMARY	E WASH	Blocked	Antonie Kelnárová	blk Aspyn Reed	+0.5
9	3-6	E WASH	STMARY×3	Attack err	Aspyn Reed		+0.4
10	4-6	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	Saint Mary's (CA)	aced Reese Betschart	+0.5
11	5-6	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	Saint Mary's (CA)		+0.5
12	5-7	STMARY	E WASH	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+0.5
13	6-7	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Caitlin Prior	+0.4
14	7-7	STMARY	STMARY	Bad set	Kalista Lukovich		+0.5
15	7-8	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Kalista Lukovich	set Jailyn Davenport	+0.4
16	8-8	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Alayna Pearson	+0.4
17	8-9	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Reese Betschart	set Jailyn Davenport	+0.5
18	9-9	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+0.4
19	9-10	STMARY	E WASH×6	Serve err	Saint Mary's (CA)		+0.5
20	9-11	E WASH	E WASH×6	Ace	Eastern Wash.	aced Antonie Kelnárová	+0.7
21	9-12	E WASH	E WASH×6	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Elle Bruegman	+0.7
22	9-13	E WASH	E WASH×6	Blocked	Layne Dent	blk Sidney Gray, Aspyn Reed	+0.7
23	9-14	E WASH	E WASH×6	Bad set	Antonie Kelnárová		+0.7
24–25	10-15		STMARY · E WASH	NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.3
26	10-16	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Stephanie Groswirt	set Elle Bruegman	+0.5
27	11-16	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Caitlin Prior	+0.3
28	12-16	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Aspyn Reed		+0.5
29	12-17	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Jailyn Davenport	+0.6
30	13-17	E WASH	STMARY×3	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Caitlin Prior	+0.4
31	14-17	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	Saint Mary's (CA)	aced Kalista Lukovich	+0.6
32	15-17	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Caroline Formankova	set Antonie Kelnárová	+0.7
33	15-18	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Stephanie Groswirt	+0.7
34	16-18	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Caitlin Prior	+0.6
35	16-19	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Aspyn Reed	set Jailyn Davenport	+0.8
36	17-19	E WASH	STMARY	Serve err	Eastern Wash.		+0.6
37	18-19	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+0.9
38	18-20	STMARY	E WASH	Bad set	Ava Galvan		+0.9
39	19-20	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+0.7
40	19-21	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Stephanie Groswirt	set Kalista Lukovich	+1.0
41	20-21	E WASH	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Caitlin Prior	+0.8
42	20-22	STMARY	E WASH	Kill	Stephanie Groswirt	set Caroline Formankova	+1.1
43	20-23	E WASH	E WASH	Blocked	Ava Galvan	blk Aspyn Reed, Judith Bolomboy	+1.2
44	21-23	E WASH	STMARY×5	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Caitlin Prior	+0.6
45	22-23	STMARY	STMARY×5	Attack err	Kalista Lukovich		+1.1
46	23-23	STMARY	STMARY×5	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Caitlin Prior	+1.6
47	24-23	STMARY	STMARY×5	Kill	Hadlee Gray	set Caitlin Prior	+1.9
48	25-23	STMARY	STMARY×5	Ace	Saint Mary's (CA)	aced Elle Bruegman	+1.5

Score shown after each rally, Saint Mary's (CA) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Saint Mary's (CA) def. Eastern Wash. 3–0