FinalThu, Sep 17, 2026

AwayMOUNTAIN-WEST

0:3

HomeWCC

Saint Mary's (CA) def. New Mexico 3–0

(28-26, 25-16, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
N MEX	26	16	20	0
STMARY	28	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

STMARY above 50 · N MEX below

Biggest swing: 10.0% to Saint Mary's (CA) — set 1, N MEX 24-24 STMARY. Attack error by Reagan Miller. STMARY win probability 42% → 52%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

N MEX 46.5%53.5% STMARY

New Mexico wins

3-0

11.1%

3-1

17.3%

3-2

18.1%

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0

14.0%

3-1

20.2%

3-2

19.3%

N MEX break %: 43.4% vs this opp
STMARY break %: 44.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Reagan MillerAttack error+10.0%
Attack error by Reagan Miller
Set 1 · N MEX 24-24 STMARY · STMARY 42% → 52%
02
Makenzie JacksonKill+9.9%
Kill by Makenzie Jackson (set by Sadie White)
Set 1 · N MEX 24-25 STMARY · STMARY 52% → 61%
03
Antonie KelnárováKill+9.7%
Kill by Antonie Kelnárová (set by Sadie White)
Set 1 · N MEX 26-28 STMARY · STMARY 61% → 71%
04
Addison FranceKill+7.6%
Kill by Addison France (set by Madeleine Miller)
Set 1 · N MEX 25-25 STMARY · N MEX 39% → 46%
05
Makenzie JacksonKill+7.6%
Kill by Makenzie Jackson (set by Sadie White)
Set 1 · N MEX 25-26 STMARY · STMARY 54% → 61%
06
Makenzie JacksonAttack error+7.6%
Attack error by Makenzie Jackson
Set 1 · N MEX 26-26 STMARY · N MEX 39% → 46%
07
Anaya ThrowerKill+7.6%
Kill by Anaya Thrower (set by Sadie White)
Set 1 · N MEX 26-27 STMARY · STMARY 54% → 61%
08
Layne DentAttack error+5.2%
Attack error by Layne Dent
Set 1 · N MEX 21-19 STMARY · N MEX 52% → 57%

Official NCAA box

Box score

New Mexicoaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Reagan MillerMB	3	10	5	21	.238	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2.5	12.5
15Addison FranceOPP	3	10	3	34	.206	0	0	0	3	0	1	2	2	12
9Mina StanojevicOH	3	4	3	22	.045	2	0	4	8	4	0	0	0	4
16Madeleine MillerS	3	2	1	6	.167	22	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	3
7Uliana YastrubOH	2	3	3	10	.000	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	1	4
13Zoe LeonardMB	2	0	2	5	-.400	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
14Camila CanedoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	13	2	0	0	0	0
12Seenane BrewerOH	2	0	0	4	.000	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Campbell HollisterMB	1	2	1	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
5Amanda TremeroliOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Angela ZhangS	1	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Ella JoestingL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		31	18	105	.124	30	1	9	33	8	4	4	6	62

Saint Mary's (CA)home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Antonie KelnárováOH	3	14	4	26	.385	1	4	1	10	1	0	0	0	18
11Anaya ThrowerMB	3	9	3	15	.400	0	0	1	1	0	2	1	2.5	11.5
4Makenzie JacksonOPP	3	8	7	24	.042	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	10
9Layne DentOH	3	7	5	20	.100	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7
10Ava GalvanMB	3	4	3	13	.077	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	2.5	6.5
21Sadie WhiteS	3	1	0	4	.250	35	1	1	15	0	0	0	0	2
6Mikayla HanerOH	3	0	1	4	-.250	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
24Alayna PearsonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	2	7	0	0	0	0	1
12Natalie PeeteL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	7	0	0	0	0	1
19Maddie WayMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	23	106	.189	43	8	6	46	1	5	4	7	78

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 N MEX · STMARY 9

Set 1

26-28

Longest run 3 N MEXSTMARY 4

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 3 N MEXSTMARY 9

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 5 N MEXSTMARY 3

Bars above the line = Saint Mary's (CA) leads, below = New Mexico leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

New Mexico

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	50%7/14
2	64%7/11	59%10/17
3	43%6/14	13%1/8
4	32%6/19	33%3/9
5	71%5/7	40%4/10
6	50%5/10	17%1/6
All	47%36/76	41%26/64

Saint Mary's (CA)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%8/18	33%3/9
2	50%7/14	53%8/15
3	70%7/10	42%5/12
4	86%6/7	70%14/20
5	50%5/10	50%5/10
6	100%5/5	50%5/10
All	59%38/64	53%40/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

140 rallies

Rally log

#	N MEX-STMARY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	N MEX	N MEX	Attack err	Ava Galvan		+2.4
2	2-0	N MEX	N MEX	Attack err	Layne Dent	blk Reagan Miller	+2.5
3	2-1	N MEX	STMARY×3	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Layne Dent	+1.8
4	2-2	STMARY	STMARY×3	Attack err	Uliana Yastrub	blk Ava Galvan, Makenzie Jackson	+2.5
5	2-3	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	STMARY server	aced Mina Stanojevic	+2.5
6	3-3	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+2.0
7	4-3	N MEX	N MEX	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson	blk Uliana Yastrub	+2.6
8	4-4	N MEX	STMARY	Attack err	Uliana Yastrub		+2.0
9	5-4	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Addison France	set Madeleine Miller	+2.1
10	5-5	N MEX	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+2.1
11	6-5	STMARY	N MEX	Attack err	Mikayla Haner		+2.1
12	6-6	N MEX	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+2.1
13	7-6	STMARY	N MEX×3	Attack err	Anaya Thrower		+2.2
14	8-6	N MEX	N MEX×3	Kill	Mina Stanojevic	set Madeleine Miller	+2.8
15	9-6	N MEX	N MEX×3	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+2.7
16	9-7	N MEX	STMARY	Serve err	N MEX server		+1.9
17	9-8	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Mina Stanojevic		+2.8
18	10-8	STMARY	N MEX	Serve err	STMARY server		+2.3
19	10-9	N MEX	STMARY	Serve err	N MEX server		+2.2
20	10-10	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Alayna Pearson	+3.0
21	11-10	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+2.5
22	12-10	N MEX	N MEX	Attack err	Ava Galvan		+3.2
23	12-11	N MEX	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Sadie White	+2.3
24	13-11	STMARY	N MEX×3	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+2.6
25	14-11	N MEX	N MEX×3	Kill	Addison France	set Madeleine Miller	+3.1
26	15-11	N MEX	N MEX×3	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová	blk Addison France, Zoe Leonard	+2.8
27	15-12	N MEX	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Sadie White	+1.8
28	16-12	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Addison France	set Madeleine Miller	+2.2
29	17-12	N MEX	N MEX	Kill	Uliana Yastrub	set Camila Canedo	+2.4
30	17-13	N MEX	STMARY×3	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+1.4
31	17-14	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+2.3
32	17-15	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	STMARY server	aced Team	+3.0
33	18-15	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Uliana Yastrub	set Madeleine Miller	+2.8
34	19-15	N MEX	N MEX	Kill	Mina Stanojevic	set Madeleine Miller	+3.1
35	19-16	N MEX	STMARY×4	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+1.8
36	19-17	STMARY	STMARY×4	Ace	STMARY server	aced Mina Stanojevic	+3.1
37	19-18	STMARY	STMARY×4	Ace	STMARY server	aced Camila Canedo	+3.9
38	19-19	STMARY	STMARY×4	Ace	STMARY server	aced Mina Stanojevic	+4.7
39	20-19	STMARY	N MEX×3	Attack err	Layne Dent		+4.1
40	21-19	N MEX	N MEX×3	Attack err	Layne Dent		+5.2
41	22-19	N MEX	N MEX×3	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+4.4
42	22-20	N MEX	STMARY	Attack err	Reagan Miller		+2.3
43	23-20	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+3.6
44	23-21	N MEX	STMARY	Serve err	N MEX server		+2.1
45	24-21	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+3.7
46	24-22	N MEX	STMARY×4	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+1.5
47	24-23	STMARY	STMARY×4	Attack err	Reagan Miller		+4.4
48	24-24	STMARY	STMARY×4	Attack err	Reagan Miller		+10.0
49	24-25	STMARY	STMARY×4	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Sadie White	+9.9
50	25-25	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Addison France	set Madeleine Miller	+7.6
51	25-26	N MEX	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Sadie White	+7.6
52	26-26	STMARY	N MEX	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson		+7.6
53	26-27	N MEX	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+7.6
54	26-28	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+9.7
Set 2
1	0-1	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Sadie White	+2.3
2	1-1	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Madeleine Miller	set Seenane Brewer	+1.8
3	2-1	N MEX	N MEX	Ace	N MEX server	aced Antonie Kelnárová	+2.4
4	2-2	N MEX	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Antonie Kelnárová	+1.9
5	2-3	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Ava Galvan	+2.4
6	3-3	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Addison France	set Mina Stanojevic	+1.9
7	3-4	N MEX	STMARY	Attack err	Zoe Leonard	blk Ava Galvan	+1.9
8	3-5	STMARY	STMARY	Ace	STMARY server	aced Team	+2.5
9	4-5	STMARY	N MEX	Serve err	STMARY server		+1.9
10	4-6	N MEX	STMARY×9	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+2.0
11	4-7	STMARY	STMARY×9	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+2.4
12	4-8	STMARY	STMARY×9	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+2.2
13	4-9	STMARY	STMARY×9	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Mikayla Haner	+2.0
14	4-10	STMARY	STMARY×9	Attack err	Mina Stanojevic	blk Anaya Thrower	+1.7
15	4-11	STMARY	STMARY×9	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+1.4
16	4-12	STMARY	STMARY×9	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+1.0
17	4-13	STMARY	STMARY×9	Attack err	Mina Stanojevic	blk Anaya Thrower	+0.8
18	4-14	STMARY	STMARY×9	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+0.5
19	5-14	STMARY	N MEX	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.3
20	5-15	N MEX	STMARY	Serve err	N MEX server		+0.4
21	6-15	STMARY	N MEX	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.2
22	7-15	N MEX	N MEX	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+0.4
23	7-16	N MEX	STMARY×4	Kill	Layne Dent	set Alayna Pearson	+0.5
24	7-17	STMARY	STMARY×4	Kill	Layne Dent	set Natalie Peete	+0.4
25	7-18	STMARY	STMARY×4	Attack err	Madeleine Miller		+0.2
26	7-19	STMARY	STMARY×4	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+0.1
27	8-19	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+0.0
28	8-20	N MEX	STMARY	Serve err	N MEX server		+0.1
29	9-20	STMARY	N MEX×3	Serve err	STMARY server		+0.0
30	10-20	N MEX	N MEX×3	Attack err	Ava Galvan	blk Reagan Miller	+0.1
31	11-20	N MEX	N MEX×3	Attack err	Layne Dent		+0.1
32	11-21	N MEX	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Sadie White	+0.1
33	12-21	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Reagan Miller	set Madeleine Miller	+0.1
34	12-22	N MEX	STMARY	Kill	Makenzie Jackson	set Sadie White	+0.1
35	12-23	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Zoe Leonard		+0.0
36	13-23	STMARY	N MEX×3	Kill	Addison France	set Madeleine Miller	+0.0
37	14-23	N MEX	N MEX×3	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson		+0.0
38	15-23	N MEX	N MEX×3	Attack err	Anaya Thrower		+0.0
39	15-24	N MEX	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+0.1
40	16-24	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Mina Stanojevic	set Madeleine Miller	+0.0
41	16-25	N MEX	STMARY	Serve err	N MEX server		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	N MEX	N MEX×3	Kill	Addison France	set Madeleine Miller	+1.5
2	2-0	N MEX	N MEX×3	Bad set	Sadie White		+1.6
3	3-0	N MEX	N MEX×3	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson		+1.5
4	3-1	N MEX	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+1.1
5	3-2	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Reagan Miller	blk Ava Galvan	+1.5
6	4-2	STMARY	N MEX×5	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová	blk Addison France	+1.3
7	5-2	N MEX	N MEX×5	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson		+1.6
8	6-2	N MEX	N MEX×5	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+1.5
9	7-2	N MEX	N MEX×5	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson		+1.4
10	8-2	N MEX	N MEX×5	Kill	Campbell Hollister		+1.2
11	8-3	N MEX	STMARY	Serve err	N MEX server		+0.8
12	8-4	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+1.2
13	9-4	STMARY	N MEX	Attack err	Antonie Kelnárová		+1.1
14	9-5	N MEX	STMARY×3	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+0.9
15	9-6	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+1.4
16	9-7	STMARY	STMARY×3	Attack err	Addison France		+1.6
17	10-7	STMARY	N MEX	Attack err	Anaya Thrower		+1.4
18	10-8	N MEX	STMARY×3	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+1.3
19	10-9	STMARY	STMARY×3	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+1.8
20	10-10	STMARY	STMARY×3	Ace	STMARY server	aced Camila Canedo	+1.9
21	11-10	STMARY	N MEX	Attack err	Layne Dent		+1.6
22	11-11	N MEX	STMARY	Kill	Sadie White	set Alayna Pearson	+1.5
23	12-11	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Madeleine Miller	set Mina Stanojevic	+1.6
24	12-12	N MEX	STMARY	Attack err	Reagan Miller		+1.6
25	12-13	STMARY	STMARY	Ace	STMARY server	aced Mina Stanojevic	+2.1
26	13-13	STMARY	N MEX	Attack err	Makenzie Jackson	blk Addison France, Reagan Miller	+1.7
27	13-14	N MEX	STMARY	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+1.7
28	14-14	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Addison France	set Madeleine Miller	+1.7
29	14-15	N MEX	STMARY×3	Kill	Ava Galvan	set Sadie White	+1.8
30	14-16	STMARY	STMARY×3	Attack err	Uliana Yastrub	blk Anaya Thrower, Makenzie Jackson	+2.3
31	14-17	STMARY	STMARY×3	Attack err	Campbell Hollister	blk Makenzie Jackson	+2.1
32	15-17	STMARY	N MEX	Serve err	STMARY server		+1.4
33	15-18	N MEX	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+1.7
34	15-19	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Antonie Kelnárová	set Sadie White	+1.8
35	16-19	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Campbell Hollister	set Madeleine Miller	+1.1
36	16-20	N MEX	STMARY	Attack err	Addison France		+1.4
37	17-20	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Mina Stanojevic	set Angela Zhang	+1.0
38	17-21	N MEX	STMARY	Kill	Anaya Thrower	set Sadie White	+1.4
39	17-22	STMARY	STMARY	Kill	Layne Dent	set Sadie White	+1.2
40	18-22	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Addison France	set Angela Zhang	+0.5
41	18-23	N MEX	STMARY	Serve err	N MEX server		+0.8
42	19-23	STMARY	N MEX	Kill	Addison France	set Angela Zhang	+0.3
43	20-23	N MEX	N MEX	Kill	Uliana Yastrub	set Angela Zhang	+0.9
44	20-24	N MEX	STMARY	Serve err	N MEX server		+1.2
45	20-25	STMARY	STMARY	Attack err	Addison France		+0.5

Score shown after each rally, New Mexico first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.