Fresno St. at Saint Mary's (CA)

RallyIQ prediction

Match prediction

FRESNO 33.2%66.8% STMARY

Fresno St. wins

3-0

6.6%

3-1

11.8%

3-2

14.8%

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0

21.1%

3-1

25.6%

3-2

20.0%

FRESNO break %: 42.5% vs this opp
STMARY break %: 45.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Once the first serve goes up, this becomes a live win-probability chart that updates point by point.