Final · 5 setsThu, Oct 15, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Saint Mary's (CA) def. San Francisco 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Saint Mary's (CA) 56.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 15, 7:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Saint Mary's (CA) won at San Francisco 3-2 (21-25, 25-27, 25-11, 25-17, 15-11) on Thu, Oct 15, 2026. Saint Mary's (CA)'s Antonie Kelnárová led with 20 kills.

Data through · final Oct 15

Set12345Sets
STMARY21252525153
S FRAN25271117112

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Alayna Pearson served 5 aces, and Saint Mary's (CA) needed every one.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Saint Mary's (CA)'s RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Saint Mary's (CA) went in as RallyIQ's 57% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Saint Mary's (CA) 24–24 San Francisco

    San Francisco won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 27–25 and lead 2–0.

    Saint Mary's (CA) 35% → 15%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Saint Mary's (CA) 3–5 San Francisco

    Saint Mary's (CA)'s low point. Saint Mary's (CA) then won 22 of the next 28 rallies and the set 25–11.

    Saint Mary's (CA) 11% → 28%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Saint Mary's (CA) 8–8 San Francisco

    From 8–8, Saint Mary's (CA) scored 5 straight to lead 13–8.

    Saint Mary's (CA) 54% → 98%

San Francisco above 50Saint Mary's (CA) belowMax swing 12.3%

Saint Mary's (CA)San Francisco

Sideout %
Saint Mary's (CA) 64.1·San Francisco 52.7
Break %
Saint Mary's (CA) 47.3·San Francisco 35.9
Hitting
Saint Mary's (CA) .313·San Francisco .243
Longest run
Saint Mary's (CA) 7·San Francisco 5

Antonie Kelnárová
5 of her kills came in the stretches above. 20 K, .310, 21 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

San Francisco above 50 · Saint Mary's (CA) below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+12.3% STMARYrally 202 · set 5

Biggest swing: 12.3% to Saint Mary's (CA) — set 5, STMARY 10-8 S FRAN. Kill by Layne Dent (set by Antonie Kelnárová). S FRAN win probability 37% → 24%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

STMARY 68.4%31.6% S FRAN

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0
22.1%
3-1
26.2%
3-2
20.0%

San Francisco wins

3-0
6.2%
3-1
11.2%
3-2
14.3%
STMARY break %
44.5% vs this opp
S FRAN break %
40.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Layne DentKill+12.3%

    Kill by Layne Dent (set by Antonie Kelnárová)

    Set 5 · STMARY 10-8 S FRAN · STMARY 63% → 76%

  2. 02
    Maeve BaileyBlock+11.1%

    Antonie Kelnárová stuffed by Maeve Bailey

    Set 2 · STMARY 25-27 S FRAN · S FRAN 74% → 85%

  3. 03
    Antonie KelnárováAttack error+10.8%

    Attack error by Antonie Kelnárová

    Set 2 · STMARY 23-24 S FRAN · S FRAN 63% → 74%

  4. 04

    Makenzie Jackson stuffed by Maeve Bailey & Petra Fritz

    Set 2 · STMARY 25-26 S FRAN · S FRAN 63% → 74%

  5. 05
    Makenzie JacksonBlock+10.5%

    Andjela Sojic stuffed by Makenzie Jackson

    Set 2 · STMARY 25-24 S FRAN · STMARY 35% → 45%

  6. 06

    Ace by Caroline Formankova

    Set 5 · STMARY 11-8 S FRAN · STMARY 76% → 86%

  7. 07

    Kill by Katariina Korhonen (set by Piper Justiss)

    Set 5 · STMARY 6-6 S FRAN · S FRAN 36% → 46%

  8. 08
    Talula LenoirAttack error+9.7%

    Attack error by Talula Lenoir

    Set 5 · STMARY 6-4 S FRAN · STMARY 61% → 71%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
520742.3102119200021
59320.30010010111.510.5
57117.353001100218
5427.286442480010.56.5
56115.333000000006
5013-.333101510000
516529.3790003100016
5000–753700005
5000–032000003
5001.000223600002
Team totals6220134.313571315406143111
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
519234.5001244500021
511425.28012372010.513.5
58523.13000000031.59.5
55111.364000301649
5013-.3332101700000
4226.000021301226
53411-.091000200425
5000–1902100000
4000–5001510000
2012-.500100000000
2000–000200000
1000–001000000
1000–000000000
Team totals4820115.2434861244132161091

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Saint Mary's (CA) vs San Francisco

Season series · Saint Mary's (CA) leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 STMARY · S FRAN 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 STMARYS FRAN 5

Set 2

25-27

Longest run 5 STMARYS FRAN 4

Set 3

25-11

Longest run 7 STMARYS FRAN 3

Set 4

25-17

Longest run 4 STMARYS FRAN 2

Set 5

15-11

Longest run 5 STMARYS FRAN 2

Bars above the line = San Francisco leads, below = Saint Mary's (CA) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Saint Mary's (CA)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%9/15
30%3/10
2
75%9/12
61%14/23
3
53%8/15
44%7/16
4
64%7/11
30%3/10
5
46%6/13
63%10/16
6
67%6/9
40%4/10
All
60%45/75
48%41/85

San Francisco

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%10/21
25%3/12
2
50%9/18
44%7/16
3
64%7/11
27%3/11
4
33%6/18
42%5/12
5
67%6/9
57%8/14
6
75%6/8
40%4/10
All
52%44/85
40%30/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

202 rallies

#STMARY-S FRANSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0S FRANSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+1.8
22-0STMARYSTMARYBad setJordan Smart+2.4
32-1STMARYS FRANKillAndjela Sojicset Jordan Smart+1.8
43-1S FRANSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+1.8
53-2STMARYS FRANAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+1.8
63-3S FRANS FRANAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+2.5
74-3S FRANSTMARYAttack errPetra Fritz+1.9
84-4STMARYS FRANKillMaeve Baileyset Jordan Smart+2.0
95-4S FRANSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+2.0
105-5STMARYS FRAN×5Serve errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.0
115-6S FRANS FRAN×5AcePetra Fritz+2.8
125-7S FRANS FRAN×5BlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Maeve Bailey, Hokulani Perez+2.8
135-8S FRANS FRAN×5BlockedLayne Dentblk Maeve Bailey, Hokulani Perez+2.7
145-9S FRANS FRAN×5AcePetra Fritzaced Layne Dent+2.6
156-9S FRANSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+1.7
167-9STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Alayna Pearson+2.5
177-10STMARYS FRANServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.2
188-10S FRANSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+2.0
198-11STMARYS FRAN×3KillKatariina Korhonenset Laura Amaro+2.2
208-12S FRANS FRAN×3Attack errMakenzie Jackson+2.7
218-13S FRANS FRAN×3KillKatariina Korhonenset Jordan Smart+2.4
229-13S FRANSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Makenzie Jackson+1.4
2310-13STMARYSTMARYAttack errAndjela Sojic+2.3
2410-14STMARYS FRANServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.2
2511-14S FRANSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.8
2611-15STMARYS FRANServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.2
2712-15S FRANSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+1.8
2812-16STMARYS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Jordan Smart+2.3
2913-16S FRANSTMARYKillSadie Whiteset Alayna Pearson+1.8
3013-17STMARYS FRANBlockedLayne Dentblk Maeve Bailey, Hokulani Perez+2.3
3114-17S FRANSTMARYServe errSan Francisco+1.8
3214-18STMARYS FRAN×3KillHokulani Perezset Piper Justiss+2.3
3314-19S FRANS FRAN×3BlockedMakenzie Jacksonblk Emma Neukirchen+2.4
3414-20S FRANS FRAN×3KillEmma Neukirchenset Piper Justiss+1.7
3515-20S FRANSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+0.7
3615-21STMARYS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+1.2
3716-21S FRANSTMARY×3KillAva Galvanset Sadie White+0.6
3817-21STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errAndjela Sojic+1.3
3918-21STMARYSTMARY×3Serve errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.1
4018-22STMARYS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Jordan Smart+2.4
4119-22S FRANSTMARY×3Serve errSan Francisco+1.4
4220-22STMARYSTMARY×3AceNatalie Peeteaced Katariina Korhonen+3.0
4321-22STMARYSTMARY×3AceNatalie Peete+4.6
4421-23STMARYS FRAN×3Serve errNatalie Peete+5.0
4521-24S FRANS FRAN×3AceEmma Neukirchenaced Antonie Kelnárová+4.8
4621-25S FRANS FRAN×3KillAndjela Sojicset Jordan Smart+2.0
Set 2
10-1STMARYS FRANKillAndjela Sojicset Jordan Smart+2.0
20-2S FRANS FRANBad setSadie White+2.7
31-2S FRANSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Maeve Bailey+1.9
42-2STMARYSTMARYAttack errMaeve Bailey+2.7
52-3STMARYS FRANKillAndjela Sojicset Jordan Smart+2.1
63-3S FRANSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+2.1
74-3STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Anaya Thrower+2.8
84-4STMARYS FRAN×3KillPetra Fritzset Piper Justiss+2.1
94-5S FRANS FRAN×3KillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+2.9
104-6S FRANS FRAN×3KillKatariina Korhonenset Laura Amaro+2.9
115-6S FRANSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+2.1
126-6STMARYSTMARY×3KillAnaya Thrower+2.9
137-6STMARYSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+3.0
147-7STMARYS FRAN×4Serve errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.3
157-8S FRANS FRAN×4Attack errAnaya Thrower+3.1
167-9S FRANS FRAN×4Attack errLayne Dent+3.2
177-10S FRANS FRAN×4BlockedLayne Dentblk Emma Neukirchen, Hokulani Perez+3.1
188-10S FRANSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+2.1
198-11STMARYS FRAN×3KillHokulani Perezset Piper Justiss+2.4
208-12S FRANS FRAN×3BlockedLayne Dentblk Emma Neukirchen, Andjela Sojic+2.9
218-13S FRANS FRAN×3Serve errSan Francisco+2.6
229-13S FRANSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+1.6
239-14STMARYS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Jordan Smart+2.0
2410-14S FRANSTMARYServe errSan Francisco+1.5
2511-14STMARYSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+2.5
2611-15STMARYS FRANServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.4
2711-16S FRANS FRANAceEmma Neukirchenaced Mikayla Haner+2.6
2812-16S FRANSTMARY×5KillMakenzie Jacksonset Alayna Pearson+1.5
2913-16STMARYSTMARY×5BlockedPetra Fritzblk Makenzie Jackson, Anaya Thrower+2.6
3014-16STMARYSTMARY×5KillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+3.2
3115-16STMARYSTMARY×5AceAlayna Pearsonaced Petra Fritz+3.8
3216-16STMARYSTMARY×5KillAntonie Kelnárováset Alayna Pearson+4.2
3316-17STMARYS FRANBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Maeve Bailey, Andjela Sojic+3.5
3417-17S FRANSTMARY×3Bad setPiper Justiss+3.4
3518-17STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errHokulani Perez+4.7
3619-17STMARYSTMARY×3KillSadie Whiteset Mikayla Haner+4.6
3719-18STMARYS FRAN×3KillHokulani Perezset Piper Justiss+3.1
3819-19S FRANS FRAN×3KillMaeve Baileyset Piper Justiss+5.0
3919-20S FRANS FRAN×3Attack errSadie White+5.7
4020-20S FRANSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+4.2
4120-21STMARYS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+4.8
4221-21S FRANSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+4.6
4321-22STMARYS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Laura Amaro+5.4
4422-22S FRANSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+5.2
4523-22STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Jordan Smart+8.3
4623-23STMARYS FRANServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+6.1
4723-24S FRANS FRANAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+10.8
4824-24S FRANSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+8.2
4925-24STMARYSTMARYBlockedAndjela Sojicblk Makenzie Jackson+10.5
5025-25STMARYS FRAN×3KillPetra Fritzset Jordan Smart+8.0
5125-26S FRANS FRAN×3BlockedMakenzie Jacksonblk Maeve Bailey, Petra Fritz+10.8
5225-27S FRANS FRAN×3BlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Maeve Bailey+11.1
Set 3
11-0S FRANSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+1.4
21-1STMARYS FRAN×3KillAndjela Sojicset Jordan Smart+1.4
31-2S FRANS FRAN×3AceKatariina Korhonen+1.9
41-3S FRANS FRAN×3Attack errSadie White+1.9
52-3S FRANSTMARYServe errKatariina Korhonen+1.4
62-4STMARYS FRANKillEmma Neukirchenset Jordan Smart+1.5
73-4S FRANSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.4
83-5STMARYS FRANKillAndjela Sojicset Jordan Smart+1.5
94-5S FRANSTMARY×4Serve errSan Francisco+1.5
105-5STMARYSTMARY×4AceAlayna Pearsonaced Katariina Korhonen+2.0
116-5STMARYSTMARY×4KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+2.0
127-5STMARYSTMARY×4Attack errHokulani Perez+2.0
137-6STMARYS FRANServe errAlayna Pearson+1.5
148-6S FRANSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Alayna Pearson+1.6
159-6STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errHokulani Perez+1.9
1610-6STMARYSTMARY×3BlockedKatariina Korhonenblk Anaya Thrower, Sadie White+1.8
1710-7STMARYS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Piper Justiss+1.2
1811-7S FRANSTMARYAttack errJordan Smart+1.4
1912-7STMARYSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+1.5
2012-8STMARYS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+1.0
2113-8S FRANSTMARYAttack errEmma Neukirchen+1.2
2214-8STMARYSTMARYAttack errEmma Neukirchen+1.2
2314-9STMARYS FRANServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+0.7
2415-9S FRANSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+0.9
2516-9STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Emma Neukirchen+0.9
2616-10STMARYS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Jordan Smart+0.5
2717-10S FRANSTMARYServe errSan Francisco+0.6
2818-10STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+0.6
2918-11STMARYS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Jordan Smart+0.2
3019-11S FRANSTMARY×7KillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+0.4
3120-11STMARYSTMARY×7AceAlayna Pearson+0.3
3221-11STMARYSTMARY×7Attack errPetra Fritz+0.1
3322-11STMARYSTMARY×7Attack errPetra Fritz·
3423-11STMARYSTMARY×7AceAlayna Pearson·
3524-11STMARYSTMARY×7KillAntonie Kelnárováset Alayna Pearson·
3625-11STMARYSTMARY×7KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White·
Set 4
10-1STMARYS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Katariina Korhonen+2.7
21-1S FRANSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+2.6
31-2STMARYS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Jordan Smart+2.7
42-2S FRANSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+2.7
52-3STMARYS FRANServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.8
63-3S FRANSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+2.7
74-3STMARYSTMARYAttack errHokulani Perez+3.7
84-4STMARYS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+2.8
94-5S FRANS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Laura Amaro+3.8
105-5S FRANSTMARY×4Attack errKatariina Korhonen+2.9
116-5STMARY
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.8
127-5STMARYSTMARY×4AceAlayna Pearson+3.8
138-5STMARYSTMARY×4KillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+3.6
148-6STMARYS FRANServe errAlayna Pearson+2.5
159-6S FRANSTMARYServe errSan Francisco+2.8
169-7STMARYS FRANServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.6
1710-7S FRANSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+2.8
1811-7STMARYSTMARYAceAntonie Kelnárováaced Katariina Korhonen+3.4
1911-8STMARYS FRANKillAndjela Sojicset Jordan Smart+2.2
2012-8S FRANSTMARY×3KillSadie Whiteset Natalie Peete+2.6
2113-8STMARYSTMARY×3AceCaroline Formankovaaced Laura Amaro+2.9
2214-8STMARYSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Natalie Peete+2.3
2314-9STMARYS FRANKillMaeve Baileyset Jordan Smart+1.4
2415-9S FRANSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+1.7
2516-9STMARYSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+1.7
2616-10STMARYS FRANKillMaeve Baileyset Piper Justiss+0.9
2716-11S FRANS FRANAttack errAva Galvan+1.6
2817-11S FRANSTMARYServe errSan Francisco+1.7
2917-12STMARYS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+1.2
3018-12S FRANSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+1.6
3118-13STMARYS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+1.1
3219-13S FRANSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+1.6
3320-13STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.3
3420-14STMARYS FRANAttack errMikayla Haner+0.5
3520-15S FRANS FRANAceKatariina Korhonenaced Antonie Kelnárová+1.2
3621-15S FRANSTMARYKillSadie Whiteset Antonie Kelnárová+1.4
3722-15STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+0.9
3822-16STMARYS FRANKillAndjela Sojicset Petra Fritz+0.3
3923-16S FRANSTMARYAttack errAndjela Sojic+0.5
4023-17STMARYS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Jordan Smart+0.2
4124-17S FRANSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+0.3
4225-17STMARYSTMARYAceSadie Whiteaced Katariina Korhonen+1.1
Set 5
11-0S FRANSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+6.4
21-1STMARYS FRANServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+6.4
32-1S FRANSTMARYServe errSan Francisco+6.6
43-1STMARYSTMARYAceSadie Whiteaced Petra Fritz+8.5
53-2STMARYS FRANServe errSadie White+6.2
64-2S FRANSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Alayna Pearson+6.7
74-3STMARYS FRANBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Andjela Sojic, Maeve Bailey+6.4
84-4S FRANS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Piper Justiss+9.5
95-4S FRANSTMARYServe errSan Francisco+7.5
106-4STMARYSTMARYAttack errTalula Lenoir+9.7
116-5STMARYS FRANKillMaeve Baileyset Piper Justiss+6.9
126-6S FRANS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+10.4
137-6S FRANSTMARYServe errSan Francisco+8.4
147-7STMARYS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Talula Lenoir+8.4
158-7S FRANSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+8.9
168-8STMARYS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+8.9
179-8S FRANSTMARY×5KillLayne Dentset Sadie White+9.6
1810-8STMARYSTMARY×5KillLayne Dentset Antonie Kelnárová+12.3
1911-8STMARYSTMARY×5AceCaroline Formankova+10.5
2012-8STMARYSTMARY×5Attack errAndjela Sojic+7.6
2113-8STMARYSTMARY×5AceCaroline Formankovaaced Katariina Korhonen+4.3
2213-9STMARYS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Jordan Smart+1.3
2313-10S FRANS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Laura Amaro+3.5
2414-10S FRANSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+4.9
2514-11STMARYS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Jordan Smart+1.5
2615-11S FRANSTMARYServe errSan Francisco+3.5

Score shown after each rally, Saint Mary's (CA) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).