FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

#25OREGNOregon

3:0

HomeCUSA

W KYWestern Ky.

Oregon def. Western Ky. 3–0

(25-23, 25-20, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
OREGN	25	25	25	3
W KY	23	20	23	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

W KY above 50 · OREGN below

Biggest swing: 5.9% to Oregon — set 1, OREGN 23-21 W KY. Kill by Dalia Vîrlan. W KY win probability 31% → 25%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

OREGN 65.5%34.5% W KY

Oregon wins

3-0

20.3%

3-1

25.1%

3-2

20.1%

Western Ky. wins

3-0

7.0%

3-1

12.4%

3-2

15.2%

OREGN break %: 41.7% vs this opp
W KY break %: 38.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Dalia VîrlanKill+5.9%
Kill by Dalia Vîrlan
Set 1 · OREGN 23-21 W KY · OREGN 69% → 75%
02
Alanah ClementeKill+5.8%
Kill by Alanah Clemente (set by Marina Crownover)
Set 1 · OREGN 25-23 W KY · OREGN 74% → 80%
03
Marlee ArringtonAttack error+5.5%
Marlee Arrington stuffed by Eliza McKnight & Sonja Laaksonen
Set 1 · OREGN 21-21 W KY · W KY 30% → 36%
04
Kaira KnoxAttack error+4.8%
Kaira Knox stuffed by Valentina Vaulet
Set 3 · OREGN 24-23 W KY · OREGN 91% → 96%
05
Dalia VîrlanKill+4.8%
Kill by Dalia Vîrlan (set by Kamden Mitchell)
Set 1 · OREGN 21-19 W KY · OREGN 68% → 73%
06
Marlee ArringtonKill+4.7%
Kill by Marlee Arrington (set by Kamden Mitchell)
Set 1 · OREGN 19-18 W KY · OREGN 63% → 68%
07
W KY serverService error+4.5%
Western Ky. service error
Set 1 · OREGN 24-22 W KY · OREGN 72% → 76%
08
Kaira KnoxAttack error+4.5%
Kaira Knox stuffed by Valentina Vaulet & Dalia Vîrlan
Set 3 · OREGN 25-23 W KY · OREGN 96% → 100%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Oregonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Dalia VîrlanMB	3	8	1	12	.583	0	1	4	1	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
8Valentina VauletOH	3	7	2	14	.357	3	0	3	7	3	1	1	1.5	8.5
7Alanah ClementeOPP	3	6	5	15	.067	0	2	3	3	0	0	0	0	8
14Iva SucurovicMB	3	6	2	8	.500	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	7
44Marina CrownoverS	3	0	1	2	-.500	15	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	0
1Maila RibeiroL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
3Sjakkie DonkersOH	3	4	2	11	.182	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	5
21Marlena GraciaS	3	2	0	3	.667	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
2Reese SheppardL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	2	3	7	1	0	0	0	2
11Marlee ArringtonOPP	2	2	1	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
5Kamden MitchellS	2	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22Laura EichertOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Lizzy RobinsonL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	14	69	.304	33	6	17	23	7	2	2	3	75

Western Ky.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Kaira KnoxOH	3	8	3	13	.385	0	0	1	2	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
20Kate RushS	3	4	0	8	.500	19	3	6	4	0	1	0	1	8
22Faith YoungOH	3	6	1	10	.500	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	1	7
21Eliza McKnightOH	3	3	0	7	.429	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
3Kennedy CherryL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
16Sonja LaaksonenOH	2	1	3	7	-.286	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
17Alivia SkidmoreOH	3	6	3	14	.214	0	1	2	0	0	1	1	1.5	8.5
2Tayler BaronL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	2	2	7	0	0	0	0	2
8Cali FosterL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
9Camila AdamsDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
13Kendall MellerOH	2	0	0	4	.000	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	2
18Aubrey SearsOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		28	10	65	.277	26	7	23	18	6	4	6	7	66

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 OREGN · W KY 5

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 4 OREGNW KY 3

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 4 OREGNW KY 5

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 3 OREGNW KY 4

Bars above the line = Western Ky. leads, below = Oregon leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Oregon

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%9/15	46%6/13
2	69%9/13	36%5/14
3	70%7/10	50%7/14
4	58%7/12	30%3/10
5	55%6/11	60%9/15
6	86%6/7	14%1/7
All	65%44/68	42%31/73

Western Ky.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%9/17	47%7/15
2	62%8/13	25%3/12
3	70%7/10	33%4/12
4	43%6/14	42%5/12
5	67%6/9	14%1/7
6	60%6/10	40%4/10
All	58%42/73	35%24/68

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

141 rallies

Rally log

#	OREGN-W KY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	W KY	W KY	Ace	W KY server	aced Maila Ribeiro	+2.5
2	0-2	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Valentina Vaulet	blk Kaira Knox	+2.6
3	1-2	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+1.6
4	1-3	OREGN	W KY	Attack err	Dalia Vîrlan		+1.8
5	2-3	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+1.7
6	3-3	OREGN	OREGN	Attack err	Sonja Laaksonen		+2.6
7	3-4	OREGN	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+1.8
8	4-4	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+1.7
9	4-5	OREGN	W KY	Serve err	OREGN server		+1.9
10	5-5	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Alanah Clemente	set Marina Crownover	+1.8
11	5-6	OREGN	W KY	Serve err	OREGN server		+1.9
12	6-6	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Alanah Clemente	set Marina Crownover	+1.8
13	6-7	OREGN	W KY	Serve err	OREGN server		+2.0
14	7-7	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Iva Sucurovic	set Marlena Gracia	+1.9
15	7-8	OREGN	W KY×3	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+2.0
16	7-9	W KY	W KY×3	Ace	W KY server	aced Team	+3.1
17	7-10	W KY	W KY×3	Attack err	Iva Sucurovic		+3.0
18	8-10	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Iva Sucurovic	+1.8
19	9-10	OREGN	OREGN	Attack err	Sonja Laaksonen		+2.9
20	9-11	OREGN	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+2.2
21	10-11	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Marlena Gracia	+2.0
22	11-11	OREGN	OREGN	Attack err	Sonja Laaksonen		+3.2
23	11-12	OREGN	W KY	Serve err	OREGN server		+2.3
24	12-12	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Alanah Clemente	set Marina Crownover	+2.2
25	12-13	OREGN	W KY×3	Serve err	OREGN server		+2.4
26	12-14	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Cali Foster	+3.6
27	12-15	W KY	W KY×3	Attack err	Alanah Clemente	blk Alivia Skidmore	+3.5
28	13-15	W KY	OREGN×4	Serve err	W KY server		+2.0
29	14-15	OREGN	OREGN×4	Attack err	Alivia Skidmore		+3.4
30	15-15	OREGN	OREGN×4	Ace	OREGN server	aced Cali Foster	+3.8
31	16-15	OREGN	OREGN×4	Kill	Iva Sucurovic	set Marina Crownover	+3.9
32	16-16	OREGN	W KY	Kill	Kate Rush	set Tayler Baron	+2.6
33	16-17	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Alanah Clemente	blk Alivia Skidmore, Faith Young	+4.3
34	17-17	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Iva Sucurovic	set Marina Crownover	+2.8
35	17-18	OREGN	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+3.1
36	18-18	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Marina Crownover	+3.0
37	19-18	OREGN	OREGN	Kill	Marlee Arrington	set Kamden Mitchell	+4.7
38	19-19	OREGN	W KY	Kill	Kate Rush	set Tayler Baron	+3.1
39	20-19	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+3.4
40	21-19	OREGN	OREGN	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan	set Kamden Mitchell	+4.8
41	21-20	OREGN	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+2.7
42	21-21	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Marlee Arrington	blk Eliza McKnight, Sonja Laaksonen	+5.5
43	22-21	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+4.3
44	23-21	OREGN	OREGN	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan		+5.9
45	23-22	OREGN	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+2.7
46	24-22	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+4.5
47	24-23	OREGN	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+2.4
48	25-23	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Alanah Clemente	set Marina Crownover	+5.8
Set 2
1	0-1	OREGN	W KY	Attack err	Marina Crownover		+1.4
2	1-1	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+1.4
3	1-2	OREGN	W KY	Serve err	OREGN server		+1.5
4	1-3	W KY	W KY	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kennedy Cherry	+2.3
5	2-3	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+1.4
6	2-4	OREGN	W KY	Serve err	OREGN server		+1.6
7	3-4	W KY	OREGN×3	Kill	Alanah Clemente	set Marina Crownover	+1.5
8	4-4	OREGN	OREGN×3	Bad set	Kate Rush		+2.2
9	5-4	OREGN	OREGN×3	Attack err	Alivia Skidmore		+2.2
10	5-5	OREGN	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+1.5
11	6-5	W KY	OREGN×4	Kill	Sjakkie Donkers	set Valentina Vaulet	+1.5
12	7-5	OREGN	OREGN×4	Ace	OREGN server	aced Team	+2.2
13	8-5	OREGN	OREGN×4	Ace	OREGN server	aced Team	+2.0
14	9-5	OREGN	OREGN×4	Attack err	Alivia Skidmore	blk Iva Sucurovic	+1.8
15	9-6	OREGN	W KY	Serve err	OREGN server		+1.1
16	10-6	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+1.2
17	11-6	OREGN	OREGN	Ace	OREGN server	aced Cali Foster	+1.5
18	11-7	OREGN	W KY	Attack err	Iva Sucurovic		+0.8
19	11-8	W KY	W KY	Ace	W KY server	aced Valentina Vaulet	+1.6
20	12-8	W KY	OREGN×3	Serve err	W KY server		+1.2
21	13-8	OREGN	OREGN×3	Ace	OREGN server	aced Kennedy Cherry	+1.5
22	14-8	OREGN	OREGN×3	Ace	OREGN server	aced Kennedy Cherry	+1.1
23	14-9	OREGN	W KY	Kill	Sonja Laaksonen	set Kate Rush	+0.6
24	15-9	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+0.7
25	15-10	OREGN	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.6
26	16-10	W KY	OREGN×3	Serve err	W KY server		+0.7
27	17-10	OREGN	OREGN×3	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan	set Marina Crownover	+0.7
28	18-10	OREGN	OREGN×3	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan	set Marina Crownover	+0.4
29	18-11	OREGN	W KY	Kill	Eliza McKnight	set Kate Rush	+0.2
30	19-11	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+0.3
31	19-12	OREGN	W KY	Serve err	OREGN server		+0.1
32	20-12	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Sjakkie Donkers	set Marina Crownover	+0.2
33	20-13	OREGN	W KY×5	Kill	Kate Rush	set Camila Adams	+0.1
34	20-14	W KY	W KY×5	Attack err	Alanah Clemente		+0.3
35	20-15	W KY	W KY×5	Attack err	Sjakkie Donkers		+0.5
36	20-16	W KY	W KY×5	Kill	Kate Rush	set Camila Adams	+0.9
37	20-17	W KY	W KY×5	Ace	W KY server	aced Valentina Vaulet	+1.4
38	21-17	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+1.4
39	21-18	OREGN	W KY	Serve err	OREGN server		+0.9
40	22-18	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Marlee Arrington	set Kamden Mitchell	+1.4
41	23-18	OREGN	OREGN	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Kamden Mitchell	+1.1
42	23-19	OREGN	W KY	Serve err	OREGN server		+0.3
43	24-19	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+0.5
44	24-20	OREGN	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.1
45	25-20	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+0.3
Set 3
1	1-0	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+0.8
2	2-0	OREGN	OREGN	Attack err	Faith Young		+1.2
3	2-1	OREGN	W KY×3	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+0.8
4	2-2	W KY	W KY×3	Ace	W KY server	aced Valentina Vaulet	+1.2
5	2-3	W KY	W KY×3	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+1.3
6	3-3	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Marina Crownover	+0.9
7	3-4	OREGN	W KY×4	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Kate Rush	+0.9
8	3-5	W KY	W KY×4	Ace	W KY server	aced Team	+1.4
9	3-6	W KY	W KY×4	Attack err	Alanah Clemente		+1.4
10	3-7	W KY	W KY×4	Kill	Kaira Knox	set Eliza McKnight	+1.3
11	4-7	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+0.8
12	4-8	OREGN	W KY	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+0.9
13	5-8	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+0.8
14	6-8	OREGN	OREGN	Kill	Sjakkie Donkers	set Valentina Vaulet	+1.3
15	6-9	OREGN	W KY	Serve err	OREGN server		+1.0
16	7-9	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Alanah Clemente	set Marina Crownover	+0.9
17	7-10	OREGN	W KY	Serve err	OREGN server		+1.0
18	8-10	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Marlena Gracia	set Sjakkie Donkers	+0.9
19	9-10	OREGN	OREGN	Kill	Marlena Gracia	set Valentina Vaulet	+1.5
20	9-11	OREGN	W KY	Attack err	Alanah Clemente	blk Kendall Meller	+1.1
21	9-12	W KY	W KY	Ace	W KY server	aced Reese Sheppard	+1.6
22	10-12	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Iva Sucurovic	set Marlena Gracia	+1.0
23	11-12	OREGN	OREGN	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan	set Marlena Gracia	+1.6
24	11-13	OREGN	W KY	Serve err	OREGN server		+1.2
25	12-13	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Marlena Gracia	+1.1
26	12-14	OREGN	W KY	Serve err	OREGN server		+1.3
27	13-14	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan	set Marina Crownover	+1.1
28	14-14	OREGN	OREGN	Attack err	Kaira Knox		+1.8
29	14-15	OREGN	W KY×4	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kate Rush	+1.3
30	14-16	W KY	W KY×4	Kill	Alivia Skidmore		+2.0
31	14-17	W KY	W KY×4	Attack err	Sjakkie Donkers	blk Kate Rush	+1.9
32	14-18	W KY	W KY×4	Kill	Alivia Skidmore	set Kennedy Cherry	+1.7
33	15-18	W KY	OREGN×3	Serve err	W KY server		+0.8
34	16-18	OREGN	OREGN×3	Kill	Iva Sucurovic	set Marina Crownover	+1.6
35	17-18	OREGN	OREGN×3	Kill	Sjakkie Donkers	set Iva Sucurovic	+2.0
36	17-19	OREGN	W KY	Serve err	OREGN server		+1.6
37	18-19	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+1.4
38	18-20	OREGN	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+1.8
39	19-20	W KY	OREGN	Serve err	W KY server		+1.4
40	20-20	OREGN	OREGN	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Kate Rush	+2.7
41	20-21	OREGN	W KY	Kill	Faith Young	set Kate Rush	+2.1
42	20-22	W KY	W KY	Attack err	Valentina Vaulet	blk Faith Young, Kaira Knox	+3.1
43	21-22	W KY	OREGN	Kill	Iva Sucurovic	set Marlena Gracia	+1.6
44	22-22	OREGN	OREGN	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan	set Marlena Gracia	+3.3
45	22-23	OREGN	W KY	Serve err	OREGN server		+2.8
46	23-23	W KY	OREGN×3	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan	set Marlena Gracia	+2.6
47	24-23	OREGN	OREGN×3	Attack err	Kaira Knox	blk Valentina Vaulet	+4.8
48	25-23	OREGN	OREGN×3	Attack err	Kaira Knox	blk Valentina Vaulet, Dalia Vîrlan	+4.5

Score shown after each rally, Oregon first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.