FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

#24OREGNOregon

3:0

HomeMOUNTAIN-WEST

UC DAVUC Davis

Oregon def. UC Davis 3–0

(25-19, 25-18, 27-25)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
OREGN	25	25	27	3
UC DAV	19	18	25	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UC DAV above 50 · OREGN below

Biggest swing: 5.5% to UC Davis — set 3, OREGN 24-24 UC DAV. Kill by Brooke Hibino (set by Mia Starr). UC DAV win probability 4% → 9%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

OREGN 59.8%40.2% UC DAV

Oregon wins

3-0

17.1%

3-1

22.8%

3-2

19.9%

UC Davis wins

3-0

8.8%

3-1

14.7%

3-2

16.7%

OREGN break %: 42.0% vs this opp
UC DAV break %: 40.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Brooke HibinoKill+5.5%
Kill by Brooke Hibino (set by Mia Starr)
Set 3 · OREGN 24-24 UC DAV · UC DAV 4% → 9%
02
Brooke HibinoAttack error+5.3%
Attack error by Brooke Hibino
Set 3 · OREGN 27-25 UC DAV · OREGN 95% → 100%
03
Isabella UmpierreAttack error+3.8%
Isabella Umpierre stuffed by Sjakkie Donkers & Iva Sucurovic
Set 3 · OREGN 25-24 UC DAV · OREGN 91% → 95%
04
Ximena Cordero BarrKill+3.8%
Kill by Ximena Cordero Barr (set by Mia Starr)
Set 3 · OREGN 25-25 UC DAV · UC DAV 5% → 9%
05
Iva SucurovicKill+3.8%
Kill by Iva Sucurovic (set by Marina Crownover)
Set 3 · OREGN 26-25 UC DAV · OREGN 91% → 95%
06
OREGN serverAce+3.5%
Oregon ace on Ximena Cordero Barr
Set 1 · OREGN 19-16 UC DAV · OREGN 66% → 70%
07
Isabella UmpierreKill+3.5%
Kill by Isabella Umpierre (set by Ximena Cordero Barr)
Set 1 · OREGN 17-16 UC DAV · UC DAV 33% → 37%
08
Brooke HibinoAttack error+3.1%
Brooke Hibino stuffed by Marlee Arrington & Dalia Vîrlan
Set 3 · OREGN 22-20 UC DAV · OREGN 93% → 96%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Oregonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Dalia VîrlanMB	3	9	0	15	.600	1	2	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	13.5
8Valentina VauletOH	3	10	4	27	.222	3	2	2	4	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
14Iva SucurovicMB	3	7	2	13	.385	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	2.5	9.5
11Marlee ArringtonOPP	3	5	2	11	.273	1	0	0	3	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
44Marina CrownoverS	3	4	0	5	.800	32	0	2	8	0	1	2	2	6
22Laura EichertOH	2	2	1	8	.125	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
2Reese SheppardL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	0	5	2	0	0	0	2
1Maila RibeiroL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
3Sjakkie DonkersOH	2	7	1	15	.400	0	0	0	5	1	0	1	0.5	7.5
21Marlena GraciaS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	10	94	.362	41	6	6	34	4	2	16	10	77

UC Davishome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
17Isabella UmpierreOPP	3	10	3	23	.304	0	1	4	8	0	1	0.5	11.5
13Ally ChandlerMB	3	6	3	14	.214	1	0	1	1	0	2	1	7
2Mia StarrS	3	1	0	2	.500	28	1	0	5	0	1	0.5	2.5
5Rachel DunaganOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	8	2	0	0	0
12Ana StojanovicOH	2	6	5	15	.067	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
10Allie CaldwellMB	2	0	0	4	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
16Brooke HibinoOH	3	15	6	37	.243	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	16
14Ximena Cordero BarrL/DS	3	2	2	8	.000	4	1	0	7	3	0	0	3
9Demi ColeMB	2	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
3Laela BurgessS	2	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
4Jada JohnsonOPP	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Khloe WongDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	19	104	.212	39	4	7	33	6	4	2	62

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 OREGN · UC DAV 4

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 4 OREGNUC DAV 2

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 5 OREGNUC DAV 4

Set 3

27-25

Longest run 4 OREGNUC DAV 3

Bars above the line = UC Davis leads, below = Oregon leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Oregon

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%8/17	45%5/11
2	80%8/10	50%8/16
3	100%8/8	33%4/12
4	50%8/16	38%5/13
5	100%7/7	56%9/16
6	83%5/6	29%2/7
All	69%44/64	44%33/75

UC Davis

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	42%8/19	50%7/14
2	67%8/12	27%3/11
3	53%8/15	11%1/9
4	64%7/11	33%4/12
5	46%6/13	36%4/11
6	100%5/5	14%1/7
All	56%42/75	31%20/64

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

139 rallies

Rally log

#	OREGN-UC DAV	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	UC DAV	UC DAV	Bad set	Reese Sheppard		+2.5
2	1-1	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Marlee Arrington	set Marina Crownover	+1.7
3	1-2	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Mia Starr	+1.8
4	2-2	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Laura Eichert	set Marlee Arrington	+1.8
5	3-2	OREGN	OREGN	Attack err	Ana Stojanovic		+2.6
6	3-3	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+1.8
7	4-3	UC DAV	OREGN	Serve err	UC DAV server		+1.8
8	5-3	OREGN	OREGN	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Marina Crownover	+2.5
9	5-4	OREGN	UC DAV	Serve err	OREGN server		+1.7
10	6-4	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Iva Sucurovic	set Marina Crownover	+1.8
11	7-4	OREGN	OREGN	Bad set	Isabella Umpierre		+2.4
12	7-5	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+1.6
13	8-5	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Marina Crownover	set Laura Eichert	+1.7
14	8-6	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Marina Crownover	+1.6
15	8-7	UC DAV	UC DAV	Attack err	Valentina Vaulet		+2.6
16	9-7	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan	set Marina Crownover	+2.0
17	9-8	OREGN	UC DAV	Serve err	OREGN server		+1.9
18	9-9	UC DAV	UC DAV	Kill	Ana Stojanovic	set Ximena Cordero Barr	+3.0
19	10-9	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Marina Crownover	+2.1
20	11-9	OREGN	OREGN	Attack err	Isabella Umpierre	blk Laura Eichert, Dalia Vîrlan	+3.0
21	11-10	OREGN	UC DAV	Serve err	OREGN server		+2.0
22	12-10	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Marlee Arrington	set Marina Crownover	+2.2
23	12-11	OREGN	UC DAV	Attack err	Laura Eichert	blk Isabella Umpierre, Ally Chandler	+2.1
24	13-11	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Laura Eichert	set Valentina Vaulet	+2.2
25	13-12	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Ana Stojanovic	set Rachel Dunagan	+2.1
26	14-12	UC DAV	OREGN	Serve err	UC DAV server		+2.3
27	15-12	OREGN	OREGN	Attack err	Brooke Hibino	blk Iva Sucurovic, Marina Crownover	+3.0
28	15-13	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+1.9
29	16-13	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Marina Crownover	+2.2
30	16-14	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Mia Starr	+1.9
31	17-14	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan	set Marina Crownover	+2.3
32	17-15	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+1.9
33	17-16	UC DAV	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Ximena Cordero Barr	+3.5
34	18-16	UC DAV	OREGN×4	Kill	Marina Crownover	set Laura Eichert	+2.8
35	19-16	OREGN	OREGN×4	Ace	OREGN server	aced Ximena Cordero Barr	+3.5
36	20-16	OREGN	OREGN×4	Attack err	Ana Stojanovic		+2.7
37	21-16	OREGN	OREGN×4	Attack err	Ana Stojanovic		+1.8
38	21-17	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Ana Stojanovic	set Mia Starr	+0.7
39	22-17	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan	set Marina Crownover	+1.1
40	22-18	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Ana Stojanovic	set Mia Starr	+0.6
41	23-18	UC DAV	OREGN	Serve err	UC DAV server		+1.0
42	24-18	OREGN	OREGN	Kill	Marina Crownover	set Maila Ribeiro	+0.5
43	24-19	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Mia Starr	set Ally Chandler	+0.1
44	25-19	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Iva Sucurovic	set Marina Crownover	+0.2
Set 2
1	1-0	OREGN	OREGN	Ace	OREGN server	aced Ximena Cordero Barr	+2.2
2	2-0	OREGN	OREGN	Attack err	Ally Chandler		+2.2
3	2-1	OREGN	UC DAV×3	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+1.5
4	2-2	UC DAV	UC DAV×3	Ace	UC DAV server	aced Reese Sheppard	+2.3
5	2-3	UC DAV	UC DAV×3	Attack err	Marlee Arrington		+2.4
6	3-3	UC DAV	OREGN	Attack err	Ana Stojanovic	blk Dalia Vîrlan, Marlee Arrington	+1.6
7	3-4	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+1.7
8	3-5	UC DAV	UC DAV	Attack err	Sjakkie Donkers		+2.5
9	4-5	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Marlee Arrington	set Marina Crownover	+1.6
10	4-6	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+1.8
11	5-6	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Marina Crownover	+1.7
12	5-7	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+1.8
13	5-8	UC DAV	UC DAV	Ace	UC DAV server	aced Sjakkie Donkers	+2.6
14	6-8	UC DAV	OREGN×5	Attack err	Isabella Umpierre	blk Iva Sucurovic, Valentina Vaulet	+1.6
15	7-8	OREGN	OREGN×5	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan	set Marina Crownover	+2.6
16	8-8	OREGN	OREGN×5	Kill	Marina Crownover	set Marina Crownover	+2.7
17	9-8	OREGN	OREGN×5	Ace	OREGN server	aced Rachel Dunagan	+2.7
18	10-8	OREGN	OREGN×5	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Marina Crownover	+2.6
19	10-9	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+1.8
20	11-9	UC DAV	OREGN	Serve err	UC DAV server		+1.9
21	11-10	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Ana Stojanovic	set Ximena Cordero Barr	+1.8
22	12-10	UC DAV	OREGN×4	Attack err	Ana Stojanovic		+2.0
23	13-10	OREGN	OREGN×4	Attack err	Ally Chandler	blk Dalia Vîrlan	+2.6
24	14-10	OREGN	OREGN×4	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan	set Marina Crownover	+2.2
25	15-10	OREGN	OREGN×4	Kill	Sjakkie Donkers		+1.8
26	15-11	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Ana Stojanovic	set Mia Starr	+1.0
27	16-11	UC DAV	OREGN×3	Serve err	UC DAV server		+1.2
28	17-11	OREGN	OREGN×3	Kill	Marlee Arrington	set Valentina Vaulet	+1.3
29	18-11	OREGN	OREGN×3	Ace	OREGN server	aced Brooke Hibino	+0.9
30	18-12	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+0.4
31	19-12	UC DAV	OREGN×3	Kill	Iva Sucurovic	set Marina Crownover	+0.5
32	20-12	OREGN	OREGN×3	Kill	Sjakkie Donkers	set Marina Crownover	+0.4
33	21-12	OREGN	OREGN×3	Attack err	Ally Chandler		+0.2
34	21-13	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Laela Burgess	+0.1
35	22-13	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Sjakkie Donkers	set Maila Ribeiro	+0.1
36	22-14	OREGN	UC DAV×4	Attack err	Iva Sucurovic		+0.0
37	22-15	UC DAV	UC DAV×4	Attack err	Iva Sucurovic		+0.1
38	22-16	UC DAV	UC DAV×4	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Laela Burgess	+0.2
39	22-17	UC DAV	UC DAV×4	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Laela Burgess	+0.4
40	23-17	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Iva Sucurovic	set Marina Crownover	+0.5
41	24-17	OREGN	OREGN	Ace	OREGN server	aced Rachel Dunagan	+0.2
42	24-18	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Laela Burgess	+0.0
43	25-18	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan	set Marina Crownover	+0.1
Set 3
1	0-1	UC DAV	UC DAV	Attack err	Valentina Vaulet		+1.4
2	1-1	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Marina Crownover	+1.0
3	2-1	OREGN	OREGN	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Dalia Vîrlan	+1.4
4	2-2	OREGN	UC DAV	Attack err	Valentina Vaulet		+1.0
5	2-3	UC DAV	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+1.5
6	3-3	UC DAV	OREGN	Serve err	UC DAV server		+1.0
7	3-4	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Mia Starr	+1.1
8	4-4	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Marlee Arrington	set Marina Crownover	+1.0
9	4-5	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Demi Cole	set Mia Starr	+1.1
10	4-6	UC DAV	UC DAV	Ace	UC DAV server	aced Team	+1.6
11	5-6	UC DAV	OREGN	Attack err	Brooke Hibino		+1.1
12	6-6	OREGN	OREGN	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Marina Crownover	+1.6
13	6-7	OREGN	UC DAV	Serve err	OREGN server		+1.2
14	7-7	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Sjakkie Donkers	set Marina Crownover	+1.1
15	7-8	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Ximena Cordero Barr	set Mia Starr	+1.2
16	8-8	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Iva Sucurovic	set Marina Crownover	+1.2
17	8-9	OREGN	UC DAV×3	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+1.2
18	8-10	UC DAV	UC DAV×3	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+1.8
19	8-11	UC DAV	UC DAV×3	Ace	UC DAV server	aced Reese Sheppard	+1.7
20	9-11	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan	set Marina Crownover	+1.1
21	9-12	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Mia Starr	+1.2
22	10-12	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan	set Marina Crownover	+1.1
23	11-12	OREGN	OREGN	Kill	Sjakkie Donkers	set Valentina Vaulet	+1.8
24	11-13	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Mia Starr	+1.4
25	12-13	UC DAV	OREGN×4	Kill	Sjakkie Donkers	set Marina Crownover	+1.3
26	13-13	OREGN	OREGN×4	Ace	OREGN server	aced Ximena Cordero Barr	+2.0
27	14-13	OREGN	OREGN×4	Attack err	Brooke Hibino		+2.0
28	15-13	OREGN	OREGN×4	Attack err	Brooke Hibino	blk Marlee Arrington, Iva Sucurovic	+2.0
29	15-14	OREGN	UC DAV×3	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+1.3
30	15-15	UC DAV	UC DAV×3	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Brooke Hibino	+2.1
31	15-16	UC DAV	UC DAV×3	Attack err	Marlee Arrington		+2.3
32	16-16	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Iva Sucurovic	set Marina Crownover	+1.6
33	17-16	OREGN	OREGN	Attack err	Ximena Cordero Barr	blk Marina Crownover, Iva Sucurovic	+2.4
34	17-17	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Mia Starr	+1.7
35	18-17	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Marina Crownover	+1.8
36	19-17	OREGN	OREGN	Attack err	Ximena Cordero Barr	blk Marina Crownover	+2.4
37	19-18	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Ximena Cordero Barr	+1.5
38	20-18	UC DAV	OREGN	Serve err	UC DAV server		+1.8
39	20-19	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+1.6
40	20-20	UC DAV	UC DAV	Attack err	Valentina Vaulet	blk Ally Chandler, Mia Starr	+2.9
41	21-20	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Valentina Vaulet	set Marina Crownover	+2.3
42	22-20	OREGN	OREGN	Attack err	Brooke Hibino	blk Marlee Arrington, Dalia Vîrlan	+3.1
43	22-21	OREGN	UC DAV	Serve err	OREGN server		+1.7
44	23-21	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Dalia Vîrlan	set Marina Crownover	+2.4
45	23-22	OREGN	UC DAV	Serve err	OREGN server		+1.7
46	24-22	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Sjakkie Donkers	set Marina Crownover	+2.8
47	24-23	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+1.5
48	24-24	UC DAV	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+5.5
49	25-24	UC DAV	OREGN	Attack err	Isabella Umpierre	blk Sjakkie Donkers, Iva Sucurovic	+3.8
50	25-25	OREGN	UC DAV	Kill	Ximena Cordero Barr	set Mia Starr	+3.8
51	26-25	UC DAV	OREGN	Kill	Iva Sucurovic	set Marina Crownover	+3.8
52	27-25	OREGN	OREGN	Attack err	Brooke Hibino		+5.3

Score shown after each rally, Oregon first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.