FinalFri, Nov 6, 2026Watch on B1G+

Washington def. Northwestern 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Washington 94.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 6, 8:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Washington beat visiting Northwestern 3-0 (25-17, 25-15, 25-22) on Fri, Nov 6, 2026. Washington's Maija Howse led with 13 kills, and Simona Mateska added 12 digs.

Data through · final Nov 6

Set123Sets
NW1715220
WASH2525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Maija Howse hit .619 with 13 kills as Washington rolled past Northwestern.

The biggest single-rally swing was 1.5 points, and Northwestern's high was 10% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Washington at 94%.

NorthwesternWashington
  • Break %+18.6 pts
    32.150.7

    On serve: 37/73 against 18/56 (Northwestern sideout 49.3%).

  • Hitting+.189
    .213.402

    50 kills, 11 errors vs 33 kills, 14 errors.

Washington above 50Northwestern belowMax swing 1.5%

NorthwesternWashington

Aces
Northwestern 2·Washington 7
Serve err
Northwestern 4·Washington 7
Blocks
Northwestern 4·Washington 40 BS · 8 BA vs 0 BS · 8 BA
Digs
Northwestern 31·Washington 40

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Washington above 50 · Northwestern below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+1.5% NWrally 129 · set 3

Biggest swing: 1.5% to Northwestern — set 1, NW 11-8 WASH. Attack error by Samantha Destler. WASH win probability 91% → 90%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NW 5.8%94.2% WASH

Northwestern wins

3-0
0.7%
3-1
1.7%
3-2
3.5%

Washington wins

3-0
53.3%
3-1
30.3%
3-2
10.7%
NW break %
35.5% vs this opp
WASH break %
47.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Samantha DestlerAttack error+1.5%

    Attack error by Samantha Destler

    Set 1 · NW 11-8 WASH · NW 9% → 10%

  2. 02
    Mara StiglicKill+1.3%

    Kill by Mara Stiglic (set by Ellie Stiernagle)

    Set 1 · NW 10-8 WASH · NW 8% → 9%

  3. 03
    NorthwesternService error+1.2%

    Northwestern service error

    Set 1 · NW 7-4 WASH · NW 8% → 9%

  4. 04
    Mara StiglicAttack error+1.2%

    Attack error by Mara Stiglic

    Set 1 · NW 11-10 WASH · WASH 90% → 92%

  5. 05
    Julia HuntKill+1.2%

    Kill by Julia Hunt (set by Andrea Fabikovicova)

    Set 1 · NW 11-11 WASH · WASH 92% → 93%

  6. 06
    Katy WesselsKill+1.1%

    Kill by Katy Wessels (set by Andrea Fabikovicova)

    Set 1 · NW 8-7 WASH · WASH 91% → 92%

  7. 07
    Isabella BullingtonAttack error+1.1%

    Attack error by Isabella Bullington

    Set 1 · NW 14-16 WASH · WASH 94% → 95%

  8. 08
    Hayley SchaafKill+1.1%

    Kill by Hayley Schaaf (set by Ellie Stiernagle)

    Set 1 · NW 5-3 WASH · NW 7% → 8%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
310224.3330005000010
38625.080001120008
37320.200010200008
3329.11110000031.54.5
3113.0002501600423
3000–100310000
3408.50000000010.54.5
3000–311900001
3000–001320000
2000–000000000
2000–000200000
1000–000020000
Team totals331489.213302431708454
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
313021.61900040031.514.5
312429.27601312000013
310427.2220014100010
3719.66722210010.59.5
36061.00000000031.57.5
3214.2503631100010.55.5
3011-1.000710500001
3000–200410000
Team totals501197.402477740208475

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 NW · WASH 4

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 NWWASH 4

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 3 NWWASH 4

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 NWWASH 4

Bars above the line = Washington leads, below = Northwestern leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northwestern

SlotSideout %Break %
1
39%7/18
42%5/12
2
55%6/11
13%1/8
3
75%6/8
25%2/8
4
67%6/9
33%3/9
5
55%6/11
45%5/11
6
31%5/16
25%2/8
All
49%36/73
32%18/56

Washington

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%8/13
65%11/17
2
70%7/10
53%8/15
3
100%6/6
50%6/12
4
55%6/11
25%2/8
5
67%6/9
25%2/8
6
71%5/7
62%8/13
All
68%38/56
51%37/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

129 rallies

#NW-WASHSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1NWWASHServe errNorthwestern+0.5
21-1WASHNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+0.5
31-2NWWASHKillMaija Howseset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.5
42-2WASHNWKillCampbell Parisset Simona Mateska+0.5
52-3NWWASHKillJulia Huntset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.5
63-3WASHNW×3BlockedSimona Mateskablk Hayley Schaaf, Ellie Stiernagle+0.6
74-3NWNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+0.9
85-3NWNW×3KillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+1.1
95-4NWWASHKillAndrea Fabikovicovaset Julia Hunt+0.7
106-4WASHNWServe errJulia Hunt+0.8
117-4NWNWServe errNorthwestern+1.2
127-5NWWASHKillSimona Mateskaset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.7
138-5WASHNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.0
148-6NWWASH×3KillSimona Mateskaset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.8
158-7WASHWASH×3KillKaty Wesselsset Andrea Fabikovicova+1.1
168-8WASHWASH×3KillSamantha Destlerset Kaitlyn Nguyen+1.0
179-8WASHNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+0.8
1810-8NWNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.3
1911-8NWNW×3Attack errSamantha Destler+1.5
2011-9NWWASH×4KillSamantha Destlerset Kaitlyn Nguyen+0.9
2111-10WASHWASH×4Attack errMara Stiglic+1.2
2211-11WASHWASH×4KillJulia Huntset Andrea Fabikovicova+1.2
2311-12WASHWASH×4KillSamantha Destlerset Andrea Fabikovicova+1.1
2412-12WASHNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+0.8
2512-13NWWASHKillMaija Howseset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.8
2613-13WASHNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+0.9
2713-14NWWASHServe errNorthwestern+0.8
2814-14WASHNWKillEllie Stiernagleset Lauren Dignan+0.9
2914-15NWWASHKillSimona Mateskaset Julia Hunt+0.9
3014-16WASHWASHAttack errIsabella Bullington+1.1
3115-16WASHNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Lauren Dignan+0.8
3215-17NWWASH×4KillAndrea Fabikovicovaset Addy Azavedo+0.8
3315-18WASHWASH×4Attack errMaya Stillwell+0.9
3415-19WASHWASH×4AceAndrea Fabikovicovaaced Gigi Navarrete+0.6
3515-20WASHWASH×4BlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Maija Howse, Katy Wessels+0.4
3616-20WASHNWServe errAndrea Fabikovicova+0.2
3716-21NWWASH×3KillKaty Wesselsset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.3
3816-22WASHWASH×3KillSamantha Destlerset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.2
3916-23WASHWASH×3KillMaija Howseset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.1
4017-23WASHNWAttack errSamantha Destler·
4117-24NWWASHKillMaija Howseset Andrea Fabikovicova·
4217-25WASHWASHAttack errMaya Stillwell·
Set 2
10-1WASHWASHKillKaty Wesselsset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.4
21-1WASHNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+0.3
31-2NWWASHKillMaija Howseset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.3
42-2WASHNW×3BlockedSamantha Destlerblk Maya Stillwell, Ellie Stiernagle+0.4
53-2NWNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.6
64-2NWNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+0.7
74-3NWWASHKillMaija Howseset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.4
85-3WASHNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+0.5
95-4NWWASHKillSamantha Destlerset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.4
106-4WASHNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+0.5
116-5NWWASHServe errNorthwestern+0.4
126-6WASHWASHAttack errEllie Stiernagle+0.6
137-6WASHNWServe errSamantha Destler+0.5
147-7NWWASHKillSimona Mateskaset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.4
157-8WASHWASHAceJulia Huntaced Lily Wagner+0.6
168-8WASHNWServe errJulia Hunt+0.4
178-9NWWASH×4KillSimona Mateskaset Kaitlyn Nguyen+0.4
188-10WASHWASH×4AceAndrea Fabikovicovaaced Lily Wagner+0.5
198-11WASHWASH×4KillKaty Wesselsset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.4
208-12WASHWASH×4KillSimona Mateskaset Kaitlyn Nguyen+0.3
219-12WASHNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+0.2
229-13NWWASHKillSimona Mateskaset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.2
239-14WASHWASHAttack errIsabella Bullington+0.2
2410-14WASHNWServe errSimona Mateska+0.2
2510-15NWWASH×3Serve errNorthwestern+0.2
2610-16WASHWASH×3AceKaitlyn Nguyenaced Isabella Bullington+0.2
2710-17WASHWASH×3Attack errCampbell Paris+0.1
2811-17WASHNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle·
2911-18NWWASH×3KillMaija Howseset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.1
3011-19WASHWASH×3Attack errCampbell Paris·
3111-20WASHWASH×3BlockedMara Stiglicblk Andrea Fabikovicova, Julia Hunt·
3212-20WASHNW×3KillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle·
3313-20NWNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle·
3414-20NWNW×3AceLauren Dignanaced Addy Azavedo·
3514-21NWWASHKillSamantha Destlerset Andrea Fabikovicova·
3615-21WASHNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle·
3715-22NWWASH×4KillJulia Huntset Andrea Fabikovicova·
3815-23WASHWASH×4Attack errMara Stiglic·
3915-24WASHWASH×4AceJulia Huntaced Isabella Bullington·
4015-25WASHWASH×4Attack errIsabella Bullington·
Set 3
11-0NWNWAttack errKaitlyn Nguyen+0.2
21-1NWWASHKillMaija Howseset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.2
32-1WASHNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+0.2
42-2NWWASH×4KillMaija Howseset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.2
52-3WASHWASH×4KillSamantha Destlerset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.2
62-4WASHWASH×4KillJulia Hunt+0.2
72-5WASHWASH×4KillJulia Huntset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.2
83-5WASHNWAttack errSamantha Destler+0.1
93-6NWWASHKillSamantha Destlerset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.1
104-6WASHNWAttack errAndrea Fabikovicova+0.1
114-7NWWASHKillJulia Huntset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.1
125-7WASHNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+0.1
136-7NWNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+0.2
146-8NWWASHKillSimona Mateskaset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.1
156-9WASHWASHKillSimona Mateskaset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.2
167-9WASHNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+0.1
178-9NWNW×3BlockedSimona Mateskablk Ellie Stiernagle, Maya Stillwell+0.2
189-9NWNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+0.3
199-10NWWASH×3KillSimona Mateskaset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.2
209-11WASHWASH×3BlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Katy Wessels, Maija Howse+0.3
219-12WASHWASH×3BlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Maija Howse, Katy Wessels+0.2
2210-12WASHNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+0.1
2311-12NWNWAttack errSimona Mateska+0.3
2411-13NWWASHKillMaija Howseset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.2
2511-14WASHWASHAceSimona Mateskaaced Drew Wright+0.2
2612-14WASHNWServe errSimona Mateska+0.2
2713-14NWNWKillCampbell Parisset Drew Wright+0.3
2813-15NWWASHKillKaty Wesselsset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.2
2914-15WASHNWKillMara Stiglicset Maya Stillwell+0.2
3014-16NWWASHKillJulia Huntset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.2
3115-16WASHNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+0.2
3216-16NWNWAttack errJulia Hunt+0.4
3316-17NWWASHKillSimona Mateskaset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.3
3417-17WASHNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+0.3
3518-17NWNWAceMara Stiglicaced Samantha Destler+0.6
3618-18NWWASHKillSimona Mateskaset Addy Azavedo+0.4
3719-18WASHNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+0.5
3819-19NWWASHKillKaty Wesselsset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.4
3919-20WASHWASHAceAndrea Fabikovicovaaced Gigi Navarrete+0.6
4020-20WASHNWBlockedSimona Mateskablk Ellie Stiernagle, Maya Stillwell+0.4
4121-20NWNWKillCampbell Parisset Lauren Dignan+0.8
4221-21NWWASH×3KillMaija Howseset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.5
4321-22WASHWASH×3KillSamantha Destlerset Kaitlyn Nguyen+0.7
4421-23WASHWASH×3KillMaija Howseset Kaitlyn Nguyen+0.6
4522-23WASHNWServe errSimona Mateska+0.3
4622-24NWWASHKillMaija Howseset Andrea Fabikovicova+0.5
4722-25WASHWASHKillSamantha Destlerset Kaitlyn Nguyen+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Northwestern first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).