FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayBIG-EAST

3:0

HomeNEC

Providence def. New Haven 3–0

(25-14, 26-24, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
PROV	25	26	25	3
NEWHAV	14	24	20	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NEWHAV above 50 · PROV below

Biggest swing: 2.6% to Providence — set 2, PROV 24-24 NEWHAV. Kill by Sophia Adkins (set by Miller McDonald). NEWHAV win probability 7% → 4%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

PROV 95.7%4.3% NEWHAV

Providence wins

3-0

57.5%

3-1

29.1%

3-2

9.1%

New Haven wins

3-0

0.5%

3-1

1.2%

3-2

2.6%

PROV break %: 50.3% vs this opp
NEWHAV break %: 37.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Sophia AdkinsKill+2.6%
Kill by Sophia Adkins (set by Miller McDonald)
Set 2 · PROV 24-24 NEWHAV · PROV 93% → 96%
02
Lauren MacKellarAttack error+1.9%
Attack error by Lauren MacKellar
Set 2 · PROV 25-24 NEWHAV · PROV 96% → 98%
03
Lauren MacKellarKill+1.8%
Kill by Lauren MacKellar (set by Caroline Johnston)
Set 2 · PROV 22-24 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 6% → 8%
04
Lauren MacKellarKill+1.5%
Kill by Lauren MacKellar (set by Caroline Johnston)
Set 2 · PROV 20-23 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 6% → 8%
05
Lauren MacKellarAttack error+1.4%
Attack error by Lauren MacKellar
Set 2 · PROV 26-24 NEWHAV · PROV 98% → 99%
06
Macy TaylorAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Macy Taylor
Set 2 · PROV 18-21 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 5% → 7%
07
Lauren MacKellarAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Lauren MacKellar
Set 2 · PROV 22-23 NEWHAV · PROV 93% → 94%
08
Sarah MusialBad set+1.3%
Bad set by Sarah Musial
Set 2 · PROV 20-22 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 5% → 6%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Providenceaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
21Sophia AdkinsOH	3	11	4	25	.280	1	0	2	6	3	1	0.5	11.5
11Lyric BerryMB	3	8	2	14	.429	1	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	10.5
0Aubrey EasterwoodMB	3	7	2	14	.357	1	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	9.5
9Tori OtterMB	3	5	2	15	.200	0	0	0	2	0	4	2	7
15Macy TaylorOH	3	4	1	16	.188	1	0	1	5	0	1	0.5	4.5
1Miller McDonaldS	3	1	0	1	1.000	17	0	1	3	0	0	0	1
7Shea DupuisOH	3	5	2	11	.273	0	0	0	3	0	4	2	7
20Sarah MusialS	3	1	1	2	.000	14	1	1	1	0	0	0	2
6Ava DyerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	2	0	13	0	0	0	2
8Gwenyth KossOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	0	3	0	0	0	2
Team totals		42	14	98	.286	37	5	5	36	3	20	10	76

New Havenhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
16Lauren MacKellarOH	3	18	5	35	.371	0	0	1	7	1	0	0	18
12Quinn YenshawOH	3	4	6	25	-.080	0	0	0	3	0	1	0.5	4.5
4Hannah AdderlyMB	3	3	3	11	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	3
18Josie FosterMB	3	2	0	4	.500	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
22Caroline JohnstonS	3	0	2	4	-.500	22	2	0	6	0	0	0	2
1Alejandra MejiaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
20Marley AlefaioOH	3	7	7	23	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
23Liahnna OrangeS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
8Camryn HarrisL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	2	10	4	0	0	0
2Payton MalinoskiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
14Zaira KearnsS	1	0	1	1	-1.000	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Lauren FickOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		34	24	104	.096	34	3	4	38	5	4	2	58

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 PROV · NEWHAV 3

Set 1

25-14

Longest run 6 PROVNEWHAV 3

Set 2

26-24

Longest run 5 PROVNEWHAV 3

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 4 PROVNEWHAV 3

Bars above the line = New Haven leads, below = Providence leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Providence

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	14%1/7
2	64%7/11	56%9/16
3	86%6/7	57%8/14
4	50%6/12	63%10/16
5	75%6/8	40%4/10
6	56%5/9	55%6/11
All	63%38/60	51%38/74

New Haven

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	46%6/13
2	30%6/20	38%5/13
3	40%6/15	25%2/8
4	50%6/12	33%3/9
5	56%5/9	33%3/9
6	71%5/7	38%3/8
All	49%36/74	37%22/60

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

134 rallies

Rally log

#	PROV-NEWHAV	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Alejandra Mejia	+0.6
2	1-1	NEWHAV	PROV	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+0.4
3	1-2	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.5
4	2-2	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+0.5
5	2-3	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Camryn Harris	+0.5
6	3-3	NEWHAV	PROV×4	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.5
7	4-3	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Hannah Adderly		+0.6
8	5-3	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Sarah Musial	+0.5
9	6-3	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+0.4
10	6-4	PROV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.3
11	6-5	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Sophia Adkins	blk Josie Foster, Marley Alefaio	+0.5
12	6-6	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Ace	NEWHAV server	aced Sophia Adkins	+0.7
13	7-6	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+0.5
14	8-6	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Marley Alefaio	blk Shea Dupuis, Lyric Berry	+0.5
15	8-7	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.5
16	9-7	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Sarah Musial	+0.4
17	9-8	PROV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Shea Dupuis		+0.5
18	10-8	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+0.4
19	10-9	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.5
20	10-10	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.8
21	11-10	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+0.6
22	11-11	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.7
23	12-11	NEWHAV	PROV×6	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.6
24	13-11	PROV	PROV×6	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw		+0.7
25	14-11	PROV	PROV×6	Kill	Tori Otter	set Lyric Berry	+0.6
26	15-11	PROV	PROV×6	Ace	PROV server	aced Lauren MacKellar	+0.4
27	16-11	PROV	PROV×6	Bad set	Quinn Yenshaw		+0.3
28	17-11	PROV	PROV×6	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+0.2
29	17-12	PROV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+0.1
30	18-12	NEWHAV	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
31	19-12	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+0.1
32	20-12	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Marley Alefaio	blk Shea Dupuis, Lyric Berry	+0.1
33	20-13	PROV	NEWHAV	Serve err	PROV server		+0.0
34	21-13	NEWHAV	PROV×3	Attack err	Caroline Johnston		+0.0
35	22-13	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
36	23-13	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Sarah Musial	+0.0
37	23-14	PROV	NEWHAV	Serve err	PROV server		+0.0
38	24-14	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Sarah Musial	set Ava Dyer	+0.0
39	25-14	PROV	PROV	Ace	PROV server	aced Camryn Harris	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Alejandra Mejia	+0.3
2	1-1	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+0.3
3	1-2	PROV	NEWHAV	Serve err	PROV server		+0.3
4	1-3	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.5
5	2-3	NEWHAV	PROV	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+0.3
6	3-3	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+0.4
7	3-4	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.4
8	4-4	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Miller McDonald	set Sophia Adkins	+0.3
9	4-5	PROV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.4
10	4-6	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Ace	NEWHAV server	aced Sophia Adkins	+0.5
11	4-7	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Ace	NEWHAV server	aced Sophia Adkins	+0.6
12	5-7	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Sarah Musial	+0.4
13	5-8	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Josie Foster	set Caroline Johnston	+0.5
14	6-8	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+0.4
15	7-8	PROV	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+0.5
16	7-9	PROV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Sarah Musial		+0.5
17	7-10	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+0.7
18	7-11	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Aubrey Easterwood		+0.8
19	8-11	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+0.5
20	8-12	PROV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.6
21	8-13	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Tori Otter		+0.8
22	8-14	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+0.8
23	9-14	NEWHAV	PROV×5	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Miller McDonald	+0.4
24	10-14	PROV	PROV×5	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.6
25	11-14	PROV	PROV×5	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw	blk Tori Otter, Aubrey Easterwood	+0.7
26	12-14	PROV	PROV×5	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw	blk Tori Otter, Aubrey Easterwood	+0.7
27	13-14	PROV	PROV×5	Attack err	Hannah Adderly	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Sophia Adkins	+0.7
28	13-15	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.7
29	14-15	NEWHAV	PROV	Attack err	Caroline Johnston		+0.6
30	14-16	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Camryn Harris	+0.7
31	15-16	NEWHAV	PROV×3	Attack err	Marley Alefaio	blk Tori Otter, Lyric Berry	+0.6
32	16-16	PROV	PROV×3	Ace	PROV server	aced Camryn Harris	+0.8
33	17-16	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Marley Alefaio	blk Shea Dupuis, Lyric Berry	+0.7
34	17-17	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.6
35	17-18	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+1.0
36	18-18	NEWHAV	PROV	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+0.7
37	18-19	PROV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.9
38	18-20	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Sophia Adkins	blk Josie Foster, Quinn Yenshaw	+1.3
39	18-21	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Macy Taylor		+1.3
40	19-21	NEWHAV	PROV	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw	blk Shea Dupuis, Lyric Berry	+0.7
41	20-21	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Macy Taylor	+1.1
42	20-22	PROV	NEWHAV	Bad set	Sarah Musial		+1.3
43	20-23	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+1.5
44	21-23	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Camryn Harris	+0.6
45	22-23	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+1.3
46	22-24	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+1.8
47	23-24	NEWHAV	PROV×4	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+1.0
48	24-24	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+2.6
49	25-24	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+1.9
50	26-24	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+1.4
Set 3
1	1-0	NEWHAV	PROV	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+0.1
2	1-1	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Hannah Adderly	set Caroline Johnston	+0.1
3	2-1	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Sarah Musial	+0.1
4	3-1	PROV	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+0.1
5	3-2	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Hannah Adderly	set Caroline Johnston	+0.1
6	3-3	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Aubrey Easterwood		+0.2
7	4-3	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Macy Taylor	+0.1
8	4-4	PROV	NEWHAV	Serve err	PROV server		+0.1
9	5-4	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
10	5-5	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.1
11	6-5	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
12	7-5	PROV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins		+0.2
13	7-6	PROV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Josie Foster		+0.1
14	7-7	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Tori Otter		+0.2
15	8-7	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Caroline Johnston	+0.1
16	8-8	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.2
17	9-8	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Sarah Musial	+0.2
18	10-8	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw		+0.2
19	10-9	PROV	NEWHAV×3	Serve err	PROV server		+0.1
20	10-10	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Shea Dupuis		+0.2
21	10-11	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Lyric Berry		+0.3
22	11-11	NEWHAV	PROV	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+0.2
23	12-11	PROV	PROV	Ace	PROV server	aced Camryn Harris	+0.2
24	12-12	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Hannah Adderly	set Zaira Kearns	+0.2
25	13-12	NEWHAV	PROV×4	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+0.2
26	14-12	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.2
27	15-12	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Marley Alefaio	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter	+0.2
28	16-12	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Zaira Kearns		+0.1
29	16-13	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Hannah Adderly	+0.1
30	16-14	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Lyric Berry		+0.2
31	17-14	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Aubrey Easterwood	+0.1
32	18-14	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Hannah Adderly		+0.1
33	18-15	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Zaira Kearns	+0.1
34	19-15	NEWHAV	PROV×3	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
35	20-15	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.1
36	21-15	PROV	PROV×3	Ace	PROV server	aced Camryn Harris	+0.0
37	21-16	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Zaira Kearns	+0.0
38	22-16	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
39	22-17	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Josie Foster	set Zaira Kearns	+0.0
40	22-18	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Zaira Kearns	+0.0
41	23-18	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+0.1
42	24-18	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw		+0.0
43	24-19	PROV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Zaira Kearns	+0.0
44	24-20	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Zaira Kearns	+0.0
45	25-20	NEWHAV	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sarah Musial	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Providence first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.