FinalTue, Sep 1, 2026

AwayPATRIOT

3:0

HomeNEC

Holy Cross def. New Haven 3–0

(25-22, 25-22, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
HOLYCR	25	25	25	3
NEWHAV	22	22	20	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NEWHAV above 50 · HOLYCR below

Biggest swing: 4.3% to Holy Cross — set 2, HOLYCR 22-21 NEWHAV. Kill by Drew Flanagan (set by Emma Sorensen). NEWHAV win probability 17% → 13%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

HOLYCR 73.4%26.6% NEWHAV

Holy Cross wins

3-0

25.7%

3-1

28.1%

3-2

19.5%

New Haven wins

3-0

4.8%

3-1

9.2%

3-2

12.6%

HOLYCR break %: 46.4% vs this opp
NEWHAV break %: 41.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Drew FlanaganKill+4.3%
Kill by Drew Flanagan (set by Emma Sorensen)
Set 2 · HOLYCR 22-21 NEWHAV · HOLYCR 83% → 87%
02
HOLYCR serverAce+3.9%
Holy Cross ace on Camryn Harris
Set 2 · HOLYCR 23-21 NEWHAV · HOLYCR 87% → 91%
03
Lauren MacKellarAttack error+3.6%
Attack error by Lauren MacKellar
Set 2 · HOLYCR 20-20 NEWHAV · HOLYCR 79% → 83%
04
Georgia MurphyKill+3.6%
Kill by Georgia Murphy (set by Drew Flanagan)
Set 2 · HOLYCR 24-22 NEWHAV · HOLYCR 89% → 92%
05
HOLYCR serverService error+3.3%
Holy Cross service error
Set 2 · HOLYCR 20-21 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 17% → 20%
06
Kat TeepeKill+3.1%
Kill by Kat Teepe (set by Tuana Ozarpaci)
Set 2 · HOLYCR 21-21 NEWHAV · HOLYCR 80% → 83%
07
Marley AlefaioAttack error+3.1%
Marley Alefaio stuffed by Isa Glover
Set 2 · HOLYCR 19-20 NEWHAV · HOLYCR 76% → 79%
08
Hannah AdderlyKill+2.8%
Kill by Hannah Adderly (set by Caroline Johnston)
Set 2 · HOLYCR 14-16 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 18% → 21%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Holy Crossaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Emma SorensenOH	3	14	0	27	.519	3	1	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	15.5
16Georgia MurphyOH	3	7	2	19	.263	1	2	1	7	1	0	0	0	9
8Lacey MurphyMB	3	7	3	13	.308	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
13Isa GloverMB	3	3	1	7	.286	1	0	2	2	0	2	2	3	6
23Sarahya CollegeOH	3	1	2	11	-.091	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	3
22Drew FlanaganS	3	1	0	2	.500	13	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	2
11Kat TeepeOH	3	6	3	16	.188	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6
3Tuana OzarpaciS	3	0	0	5	.000	10	2	0	6	0	0	0	0	2
21Alana WhitwellL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	4	0	2	7	0	0	0	0	0
15Elizabeth HallDS	3	0	0	1	.000	4	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0
26Keira MullenS	1	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
6Emilia PowderlyS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	11	106	.283	37	7	8	41	3	3	6	6	75

New Havenhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Lauren MacKellarOH	3	14	4	34	.294	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	14
4Hannah AdderlyMB	3	6	3	13	.231	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2.5	8.5
18Josie FosterMB	3	6	2	11	.364	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	7
20Marley AlefaioOH	3	4	5	24	-.042	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
22Caroline JohnstonS	3	2	0	6	.333	28	0	2	10	0	0	0	0	2
19Mirella RedererL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	0	1
12Quinn YenshawOH	3	4	1	13	.231	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
1Alejandra MejiaL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	2	2	2	2	0	0	0	2
2Payton MalinoskiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	7	0	0	0	0	1
8Camryn HarrisL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	3	0	1	5	3	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	15	105	.210	32	3	7	43	7	3	3	4.5	64

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 HOLYCR · NEWHAV 5

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 4 HOLYCRNEWHAV 3

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 5 HOLYCRNEWHAV 5

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 4 HOLYCRNEWHAV 3

Bars above the line = New Haven leads, below = Holy Cross leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Holy Cross

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	57%8/14
2	44%8/18	27%3/11
3	78%7/9	42%5/12
4	78%7/9	22%2/9
5	67%6/9	60%9/15
6	75%6/8	50%6/12
All	64%42/66	45%33/73

New Haven

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%8/16	11%1/9
2	58%7/12	53%9/17
3	88%7/8	50%7/14
4	50%6/12	22%2/9
5	46%6/13	25%2/8
6	50%6/12	33%3/9
All	55%40/73	36%24/66

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

139 rallies

Rally log

#	HOLYCR-NEWHAV	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+1.5
2	1-1	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+1.6
3	1-2	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Bad set	Elizabeth Hall		+2.1
4	2-2	NEWHAV	HOLYCR×4	Kill	Lacey Murphy	set Drew Flanagan	+1.6
5	3-2	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×4	Ace	HOLYCR server	aced Alejandra Mejia	+2.0
6	4-2	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×4	Bad set	Caroline Johnston		+1.9
7	5-2	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×4	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Alana Whitwell	+1.7
8	5-3	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Josie Foster	set Caroline Johnston	+1.3
9	6-3	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Bad set	Payton Malinoski		+1.4
10	7-3	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Ace	HOLYCR server	aced Team	+1.6
11	7-4	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+1.2
12	8-4	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Lacey Murphy	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+1.2
13	9-4	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Attack err	Hannah Adderly		+1.4
14	9-5	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+0.9
15	9-6	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Kat Teepe		+1.5
16	10-6	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Georgia Murphy	set Emma Sorensen	+1.3
17	11-6	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Kill	Georgia Murphy	set Drew Flanagan	+1.4
18	11-7	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Georgia Murphy	+1.0
19	11-8	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+1.5
20	12-8	NEWHAV	HOLYCR×4	Attack err	Marley Alefaio	blk Sarahya College	+1.4
21	13-8	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×4	Kill	Emma Sorensen		+1.4
22	14-8	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×4	Attack err	Josie Foster	blk Isa Glover	+1.1
23	15-8	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×4	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+0.8
24	15-9	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Josie Foster	set Emma Sorensen	+0.5
25	15-10	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.8
26	16-10	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Drew Flanagan	+0.8
27	16-11	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Attack err	Sarahya College		+0.6
28	16-12	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Ace	NEWHAV server	aced Georgia Murphy	+1.2
29	17-12	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Lacey Murphy	set Drew Flanagan	+1.1
30	18-12	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Ace	HOLYCR server	aced Alejandra Mejia	+1.0
31	18-13	HOLYCR	NEWHAV×3	Bad set	Emma Sorensen		+0.6
32	18-14	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Lacey Murphy		+1.1
33	18-15	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Payton Malinoski	+1.6
34	19-15	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Kat Teepe	set Elizabeth Hall	+1.6
35	19-16	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+1.2
36	20-16	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Georgia Murphy	set Elizabeth Hall	+1.6
37	21-16	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Kill	Kat Teepe	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+1.4
38	21-17	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+0.7
39	21-18	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+1.4
40	22-18	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+1.6
41	22-19	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Hannah Adderly	set Caroline Johnston	+1.0
42	22-20	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Mirella Rederer	set Camryn Harris	+2.2
43	23-20	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+2.6
44	23-21	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+1.6
45	24-21	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+2.6
46	24-22	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Caroline Johnston	set Camryn Harris	+1.1
47	25-22	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar	blk Lacey Murphy, Emma Sorensen	+2.4
Set 2
1	0-1	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+1.3
2	1-1	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Drew Flanagan	+1.3
3	1-2	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+1.4
4	1-3	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+1.8
5	2-3	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Lacey Murphy	set Drew Flanagan	+1.3
6	2-4	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+1.5
7	3-4	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Elizabeth Hall	+1.3
8	3-5	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Bad set	Tuana Ozarpaci		+1.5
9	4-5	NEWHAV	HOLYCR×3	Attack err	Hannah Adderly		+1.4
10	5-5	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Kill	Isa Glover	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+1.8
11	6-5	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Bad set	Marley Alefaio		+1.7
12	6-6	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Attack err	Georgia Murphy		+1.4
13	6-7	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Bad set	Emma Sorensen		+1.9
14	7-7	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Kat Teepe	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+1.5
15	8-7	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+1.8
16	8-8	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+1.5
17	9-8	NEWHAV	HOLYCR×5	Kill	Sarahya College	set Drew Flanagan	+1.5
18	10-8	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×5	Ace	HOLYCR server	aced Team	+1.8
19	11-8	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×5	Attack err	Marley Alefaio	blk Sarahya College, Isa Glover	+1.6
20	12-8	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×5	Ace	HOLYCR server	aced Camryn Harris	+1.4
21	13-8	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×5	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Alana Whitwell	+1.1
22	13-9	HOLYCR	NEWHAV×5	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+0.8
23	13-10	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×5	Ace	NEWHAV server	aced Elizabeth Hall	+1.3
24	13-11	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×5	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+1.6
25	13-12	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×5	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Drew Flanagan	+1.9
26	13-13	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×5	Kill	Josie Foster		+2.3
27	14-13	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Isa Glover	set Drew Flanagan	+1.8
28	14-14	HOLYCR	NEWHAV×5	Kill	Josie Foster	set Caroline Johnston	+1.9
29	14-15	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×5	Attack err	Sarahya College	blk Hannah Adderly, Quinn Yenshaw	+2.6
30	14-16	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×5	Kill	Hannah Adderly	set Caroline Johnston	+2.8
31	14-17	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×5	Kill	Hannah Adderly		+2.7
32	14-18	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×5	Ace	NEWHAV server	aced Team	+2.5
33	15-18	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+1.4
34	15-19	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+2.0
35	16-19	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+1.4
36	17-19	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Bad set	Caroline Johnston		+2.4
37	17-20	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+2.5
38	18-20	NEWHAV	HOLYCR×3	Kill	Georgia Murphy	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+1.9
39	19-20	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Attack err	Marley Alefaio	blk Isa Glover	+3.1
40	20-20	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+3.6
41	20-21	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+3.3
42	21-21	NEWHAV	HOLYCR×3	Kill	Kat Teepe	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+3.1
43	22-21	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Kill	Drew Flanagan	set Emma Sorensen	+4.3
44	23-21	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Ace	HOLYCR server	aced Camryn Harris	+3.9
45	23-22	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+2.3
46	24-22	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Georgia Murphy	set Drew Flanagan	+3.6
47	25-22	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+2.5
Set 3
1	1-0	NEWHAV	HOLYCR×4	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw	blk Isa Glover, Sarahya College	+0.7
2	2-0	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×4	Attack err	Hannah Adderly		+0.8
3	3-0	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×4	Kill	Lacey Murphy	set Drew Flanagan	+0.7
4	4-0	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×4	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Alana Whitwell	+0.7
5	4-1	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Serve err	HOLYCR server		+0.5
6	5-1	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Georgia Murphy	+0.5
7	5-2	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Attack err	Kat Teepe		+0.5
8	6-2	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Elizabeth Hall	+0.5
9	6-3	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Attack err	Kat Teepe	blk Marley Alefaio, Hannah Adderly	+0.5
10	7-3	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Lacey Murphy	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.5
11	7-4	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Attack err	Isa Glover	blk Josie Foster	+0.5
12	8-4	NEWHAV	HOLYCR×3	Kill	Kat Teepe	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.5
13	9-4	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Attack err	Josie Foster		+0.6
14	10-4	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Kill	Georgia Murphy		+0.5
15	10-5	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.3
16	11-5	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Georgia Murphy	set Drew Flanagan	+0.4
17	11-6	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+0.3
18	12-6	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Isa Glover	set Drew Flanagan	+0.4
19	12-7	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Hannah Adderly	set Caroline Johnston	+0.3
20	12-8	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Bad set	Elizabeth Hall		+0.5
21	13-8	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Lacey Murphy	set Drew Flanagan	+0.5
22	14-8	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Alana Whitwell	+0.5
23	14-9	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.3
24	15-9	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Bad set	Marley Alefaio		+0.4
25	15-10	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Hannah Adderly	set Caroline Johnston	+0.3
26	16-10	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+0.4
27	17-10	HOLYCR	HOLYCR	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+0.3
28	17-11	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Josie Foster	set Caroline Johnston	+0.2
29	18-11	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Kat Teepe	set Tuana Ozarpaci	+0.2
30	18-12	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Josie Foster	set Caroline Johnston	+0.2
31	19-12	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Drew Flanagan	+0.2
32	19-13	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.1
33	20-13	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Isa Glover	+0.2
34	20-14	HOLYCR	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Hannah Adderly	set Caroline Johnston	+0.1
35	20-15	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.3
36	20-16	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Lacey Murphy	blk Hannah Adderly	+0.4
37	21-16	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Kill	Emma Sorensen	set Drew Flanagan	+0.5
38	21-17	HOLYCR	NEWHAV	Kill	Caroline Johnston	set Camryn Harris	+0.3
39	22-17	NEWHAV	HOLYCR	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+0.4
40	22-18	HOLYCR	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.2
41	22-19	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Georgia Murphy		+0.6
42	22-20	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Lacey Murphy		+1.0
43	23-20	NEWHAV	HOLYCR×3	Kill	Keira Mullen	set Emilia Powderly	+1.1
44	24-20	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Kill	Keira Mullen	set Emma Sorensen	+0.8
45	25-20	HOLYCR	HOLYCR×3	Ace	HOLYCR server	aced Camryn Harris	+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Holy Cross first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.