FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayIVY-LEAGUE

3:0

HomeNEC

Cornell def. New Haven 3–0

(25-20, 25-20, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CORN	25	25	25	3
NEWHAV	20	20	23	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NEWHAV above 50 · CORN below

Biggest swing: 2.4% to New Haven — set 1, CORN 14-17 NEWHAV. Kill by Lauren MacKellar (set by Caroline Johnston). NEWHAV win probability 16% → 18%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CORN 90.3%9.7% NEWHAV

Cornell wins

3-0

44.9%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

13.8%

New Haven wins

3-0

1.3%

3-1

3.0%

3-2

5.5%

CORN break %: 48.8% vs this opp
NEWHAV break %: 38.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Lauren MacKellarKill+2.4%
Kill by Lauren MacKellar (set by Caroline Johnston)
Set 1 · CORN 14-17 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 16% → 18%
02
Marley AlefaioAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by Marley Alefaio
Set 1 · CORN 17-17 NEWHAV · CORN 86% → 88%
03
CORN serverAce+2.1%
Cornell ace on Alejandra Mejia
Set 1 · CORN 16-17 NEWHAV · CORN 84% → 86%
04
Jaida SioneKill+2.1%
Kill by Jaida Sione (set by Mary Wolcott)
Set 1 · CORN 18-17 NEWHAV · CORN 88% → 90%
05
Caroline JohnstonKill+2.0%
Kill by Caroline Johnston (set by Josie Foster)
Set 1 · CORN 10-14 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 16% → 18%
06
Marley AlefaioKill+2.0%
Kill by Marley Alefaio (set by Caroline Johnston)
Set 1 · CORN 10-13 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 14% → 16%
07
Jaida SioneKill+2.0%
Kill by Jaida Sione (set by Sarita Pomar)
Set 1 · CORN 20-18 NEWHAV · CORN 90% → 92%
08
Marley AlefaioAttack error+1.9%
Marley Alefaio stuffed by Ava Bogan & Mary Wolcott
Set 1 · CORN 14-15 NEWHAV · CORN 84% → 86%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Cornellaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
20Mackenzie ParsonsMB	3	12	2	25	.400	0	1	2	2	0	1	4	3	16
24Jaida SioneOH	3	11	1	22	.455	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	11.5
17Ellery WilliamsonOH	3	9	7	29	.069	0	0	1	7	1	0	0	0	9
7Ava BoganMB	3	5	3	9	.222	0	0	0	3	0	1	3	2.5	7.5
12Mary WolcottS	3	0	0	2	.000	27	1	1	6	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
8Trinidy TienL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
21Kiran RioOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	4
11Sophia AhrensOH	3	1	2	9	-.111	1	0	0	3	0	0	4	2	3
2Sarita PomarL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	1	13	2	0	0	0	1
25Madison WoodL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
3Sydney ZancaOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
16Charlotte NowakOH	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
4Caroline HoldsworthL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
15Nevaeh TienS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	15	98	.235	35	7	11	40	5	2	14	9	75

New Havenhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
20Marley AlefaioOH	3	11	3	29	.276	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
16Lauren MacKellarOH	3	8	5	26	.115	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.5	8.5
18Josie FosterMB	3	2	2	12	.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	4	2	4
21Kira LynchMB	3	3	2	10	.100	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4
22Caroline JohnstonS	3	2	0	5	.400	22	0	0	8	0	0	2	1	3
1Alejandra MejiaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	3	1	7	1	0	0	0	3
12Quinn YenshawOH	3	5	8	21	-.143	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	5
19Mirella RedererL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	2	3	9	3	0	0	0	2
8Camryn HarrisL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	0
2Payton MalinoskiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		31	20	103	.107	30	5	8	40	7	1	8	5	63

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 CORN · NEWHAV 8

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 4 CORNNEWHAV 8

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 5 CORNNEWHAV 4

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 4 CORNNEWHAV 4

Bars above the line = New Haven leads, below = Cornell leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Cornell

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	29%2/7
2	100%7/7	56%9/16
3	54%7/13	42%5/12
4	64%7/11	63%12/19
5	35%6/17	45%5/11
6	63%5/8	38%3/8
All	60%39/65	49%36/73

New Haven

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	36%4/11
2	58%7/12	0%0/7
3	41%7/17	30%3/10
4	46%6/13	36%4/11
5	63%5/8	70%14/20
6	63%5/8	17%1/6
All	51%37/73	40%26/65

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

138 rallies

Rally log

#	CORN-NEWHAV	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Jaida Sione		+1.1
2	1-1	NEWHAV	CORN×3	Kill	Ava Bogan	set Mary Wolcott	+0.8
3	2-1	CORN	CORN×3	Kill	Jaida Sione	set Mary Wolcott	+1.0
4	3-1	CORN	CORN×3	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+0.9
5	3-2	CORN	NEWHAV	Attack err	Mackenzie Parsons		+0.7
6	4-2	NEWHAV	CORN	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+0.7
7	4-3	CORN	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Kira Lynch	set Caroline Johnston	+0.7
8	4-4	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Ace	NEWHAV server	aced Jaida Sione	+1.1
9	4-5	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Ace	NEWHAV server	aced Sarita Pomar	+1.3
10	5-5	NEWHAV	CORN	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+0.9
11	6-5	CORN	CORN	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw		+1.1
12	6-6	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+1.0
13	7-6	NEWHAV	CORN×4	Kill	Ellery Williamson	set Mary Wolcott	+0.9
14	8-6	CORN	CORN×4	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw	blk Ava Bogan, Sophia Ahrens	+1.0
15	9-6	CORN	CORN×4	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw	blk Ava Bogan, Sophia Ahrens	+0.9
16	10-6	CORN	CORN×4	Ace	CORN server	aced Camryn Harris	+0.7
17	10-7	CORN	NEWHAV×8	Serve err	CORN server		+0.5
18	10-8	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×8	Ace	NEWHAV server	aced Ellery Williamson	+0.9
19	10-9	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×8	Attack err	Ava Bogan	blk Josie Foster, Caroline Johnston	+1.1
20	10-10	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×8	Attack err	Ellery Williamson		+1.4
21	10-11	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×8	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Alejandra Mejia	+1.6
22	10-12	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×8	Ace	NEWHAV server	aced Caroline Holdsworth	+1.9
23	10-13	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×8	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+2.0
24	10-14	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×8	Kill	Caroline Johnston	set Josie Foster	+2.0
25	11-14	NEWHAV	CORN	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+1.2
26	12-14	CORN	CORN	Kill	Ellery Williamson	set Sarita Pomar	+1.8
27	12-15	CORN	NEWHAV	Attack err	Ava Bogan		+1.7
28	13-15	NEWHAV	CORN	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+1.4
29	14-15	CORN	CORN	Attack err	Marley Alefaio	blk Ava Bogan, Mary Wolcott	+1.9
30	14-16	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+1.8
31	14-17	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+2.4
32	15-17	NEWHAV	CORN×4	Kill	Jaida Sione	set Mary Wolcott	+1.5
33	16-17	CORN	CORN×4	Ace	CORN server	aced Alejandra Mejia	+2.1
34	17-17	CORN	CORN×4	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+2.2
35	18-17	CORN	CORN×4	Kill	Jaida Sione	set Mary Wolcott	+2.1
36	18-18	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+1.7
37	19-18	NEWHAV	CORN×3	Kill	Jaida Sione	set Sarita Pomar	+1.7
38	20-18	CORN	CORN×3	Kill	Jaida Sione	set Sarita Pomar	+2.0
39	21-18	CORN	CORN×3	Serve err	CORN server		+1.5
40	21-19	CORN	NEWHAV	Serve err	CORN server		+0.9
41	22-19	NEWHAV	CORN×3	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+1.2
42	23-19	CORN	CORN×3	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw	blk Sophia Ahrens, Mackenzie Parsons	+0.9
43	24-19	CORN	CORN×3	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw		+0.4
44	24-20	CORN	NEWHAV	Serve err	CORN server		+0.1
45	25-20	NEWHAV	CORN	Kill	Mackenzie Parsons	set Mary Wolcott	+0.2
Set 2
1	0-1	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.6
2	1-1	NEWHAV	CORN×3	Attack err	Kira Lynch	blk Ava Bogan	+0.6
3	2-1	CORN	CORN×3	Serve err	CORN server		+0.7
4	3-1	CORN	CORN×3	Kill	Mackenzie Parsons		+0.6
5	3-2	CORN	NEWHAV	Serve err	CORN server		+0.5
6	4-2	NEWHAV	CORN×3	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw		+0.5
7	5-2	CORN	CORN×3	Attack err	Josie Foster	blk Mackenzie Parsons	+0.5
8	6-2	CORN	CORN×3	Ace	CORN server	aced Lauren MacKellar	+0.4
9	6-3	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.3
10	7-3	NEWHAV	CORN×5	Kill	Mackenzie Parsons	set Mary Wolcott	+0.3
11	8-3	CORN	CORN×5	Kill	Mackenzie Parsons	set Mary Wolcott	+0.4
12	9-3	CORN	CORN×5	Ace	CORN server	aced Mirella Rederer	+0.3
13	10-3	CORN	CORN×5	Kill	Mackenzie Parsons		+0.2
14	11-3	CORN	CORN×5	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw		+0.1
15	11-4	CORN	NEWHAV×4	Serve err	CORN server		+0.1
16	11-5	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×4	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.2
17	11-6	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×4	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Kira Lynch	+0.2
18	11-7	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×4	Ace	NEWHAV server	aced Sarita Pomar	+0.3
19	12-7	NEWHAV	CORN	Kill	Mackenzie Parsons	set Mary Wolcott	+0.3
20	12-8	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Mirella Rederer	+0.3
21	13-8	NEWHAV	CORN	Kill	Sophia Ahrens	set Mary Wolcott	+0.3
22	13-9	CORN	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.3
23	13-10	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Ellery Williamson		+0.5
24	13-11	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Ellery Williamson		+0.7
25	14-11	NEWHAV	CORN	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+0.6
26	14-12	CORN	NEWHAV	Serve err	CORN server		+0.5
27	15-12	NEWHAV	CORN	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+0.6
28	15-13	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.6
29	16-13	NEWHAV	CORN	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+0.6
30	16-14	CORN	NEWHAV×4	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Mirella Rederer	+0.6
31	16-15	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×4	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+1.0
32	16-16	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×4	Attack err	Sophia Ahrens		+1.3
33	16-17	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×4	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+1.6
34	17-17	NEWHAV	CORN	Kill	Mackenzie Parsons	set Mary Wolcott	+1.1
35	17-18	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+1.3
36	18-18	NEWHAV	CORN×3	Kill	Mackenzie Parsons	set Sophia Ahrens	+1.2
37	19-18	CORN	CORN×3	Kill	Ava Bogan	set Mary Wolcott	+1.5
38	20-18	CORN	CORN×3	Kill	Ava Bogan		+1.3
39	20-19	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Josie Foster	set Kira Lynch	+1.0
40	21-19	NEWHAV	CORN×3	Kill	Ellery Williamson	set Mary Wolcott	+1.1
41	22-19	CORN	CORN×3	Attack err	Kira Lynch		+1.1
42	23-19	CORN	CORN×3	Kill	Ellery Williamson	set Mary Wolcott	+0.6
43	23-20	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Caroline Johnston	set Camryn Harris	+0.3
44	24-20	NEWHAV	CORN	Kill	Ava Bogan	set Mary Wolcott	+0.4
45	25-20	CORN	CORN	Kill	Jaida Sione	set Mary Wolcott	+0.2
Set 3
1	1-0	NEWHAV	CORN	Kill	Jaida Sione	set Sarita Pomar	+0.2
2	1-1	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Kira Lynch	set Caroline Johnston	+0.3
3	2-1	NEWHAV	CORN	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+0.2
4	3-1	CORN	CORN	Kill	Mackenzie Parsons	set Mary Wolcott	+0.3
5	3-2	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+0.2
6	3-3	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Mackenzie Parsons	blk Lauren MacKellar, Josie Foster	+0.4
7	4-3	NEWHAV	CORN	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+0.3
8	5-3	CORN	CORN	Attack err	Josie Foster	blk Mackenzie Parsons, Sophia Ahrens	+0.3
9	5-4	CORN	NEWHAV	Serve err	CORN server		+0.3
10	5-5	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+0.4
11	6-5	NEWHAV	CORN	Kill	Mackenzie Parsons	set Mary Wolcott	+0.3
12	6-6	CORN	NEWHAV	Serve err	CORN server		+0.3
13	6-7	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.5
14	7-7	NEWHAV	CORN	Kill	Ellery Williamson	set Mary Wolcott	+0.3
15	7-8	CORN	NEWHAV	Serve err	CORN server		+0.4
16	8-8	NEWHAV	CORN	Kill	Ellery Williamson	set Mary Wolcott	+0.3
17	8-9	CORN	NEWHAV	Serve err	CORN server		+0.4
18	9-9	NEWHAV	CORN×3	Kill	Jaida Sione	set Mary Wolcott	+0.4
19	10-9	CORN	CORN×3	Kill	Mackenzie Parsons	set Mary Wolcott	+0.4
20	11-9	CORN	CORN×3	Attack err	Marley Alefaio	blk Mackenzie Parsons, Jaida Sione	+0.4
21	11-10	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Mirella Rederer	+0.3
22	12-10	NEWHAV	CORN	Kill	Jaida Sione	set Mary Wolcott	+0.3
23	12-11	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.3
24	13-11	NEWHAV	CORN×4	Kill	Jaida Sione	set Mary Wolcott	+0.3
25	14-11	CORN	CORN×4	Kill	Mackenzie Parsons	set Mary Wolcott	+0.4
26	15-11	CORN	CORN×4	Ace	CORN server	aced Mirella Rederer	+0.3
27	16-11	CORN	CORN×4	Ace	CORN server	aced Mirella Rederer	+0.2
28	16-12	CORN	NEWHAV	Serve err	CORN server		+0.1
29	17-12	NEWHAV	CORN	Kill	Ellery Williamson	set Mary Wolcott	+0.2
30	17-13	CORN	NEWHAV×4	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+0.1
31	17-14	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×4	Attack err	Ellery Williamson		+0.2
32	17-15	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×4	Attack err	Sophia Ahrens	blk Josie Foster, Marley Alefaio	+0.4
33	17-16	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×4	Attack err	Ellery Williamson		+0.5
34	18-16	NEWHAV	CORN	Kill	Ellery Williamson	set Mary Wolcott	+0.4
35	18-17	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Josie Foster	set Caroline Johnston	+0.4
36	18-18	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Ava Bogan	blk Kira Lynch	+0.7
37	19-18	NEWHAV	CORN	Kill	Ellery Williamson	set Nevaeh Tien	+0.6
38	19-19	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.6
39	20-19	NEWHAV	CORN	Kill	Ava Bogan	set Nevaeh Tien	+0.6
40	20-20	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.7
41	21-20	NEWHAV	CORN	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw	blk Sydney Zanca, Mackenzie Parsons	+0.7
42	21-21	CORN	NEWHAV	Kill	Kira Lynch	set Caroline Johnston	+0.7
43	22-21	NEWHAV	CORN	Kill	Jaida Sione	set Sarita Pomar	+0.8
44	23-21	CORN	CORN	Ace	CORN server	aced Team	+0.9
45	23-22	CORN	NEWHAV	Attack err	Ellery Williamson		+0.5
46	24-22	NEWHAV	CORN	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+0.8
47	24-23	CORN	NEWHAV	Attack err	Ellery Williamson	blk Josie Foster, Caroline Johnston	+0.5
48	25-23	NEWHAV	CORN	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+1.0

Score shown after each rally, Cornell first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.