FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayNEC

0:3

HomeAMERICA-EAST

Binghamton def. New Haven 3–0

(25-19, 25-22, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NEWHAV	19	22	21	0
BINGHA	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BINGHA above 50 · NEWHAV below

Biggest swing: 2.1% to Binghamton — set 2, NEWHAV 22-24 BINGHA. Binghamton ace on Mirella Rederer. BINGHA win probability 95% → 97%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NEWHAV 9.5%90.5% BINGHA

New Haven wins

3-0

1.2%

3-1

2.9%

3-2

5.4%

Binghamton wins

3-0

45.3%

3-1

31.5%

3-2

13.7%

NEWHAV break %: 37.8% vs this opp
BINGHA break %: 47.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
BINGHA serverAce+2.1%
Binghamton ace on Mirella Rederer
Set 2 · NEWHAV 22-24 BINGHA · BINGHA 95% → 97%
02
Viktoria DimitrovaKill+2.0%
Kill by Viktoria Dimitrova (set by Regan Kadel)
Set 1 · NEWHAV 17-18 BINGHA · BINGHA 88% → 90%
03
Lauren MacKellarAttack error+1.9%
Lauren MacKellar stuffed by Hannah Olmstead & Viktoria Dimitrova
Set 1 · NEWHAV 18-20 BINGHA · BINGHA 90% → 92%
04
Lauren MacKellarAttack error+1.9%
Lauren MacKellar stuffed by Viktoria Dimitrova & Hannah Olmstead
Set 2 · NEWHAV 20-20 BINGHA · BINGHA 91% → 93%
05
Maya Coblentz-BrownKill+1.9%
Kill by Maya Coblentz-Brown (set by Regan Kadel)
Set 2 · NEWHAV 20-21 BINGHA · BINGHA 93% → 95%
06
Quinn YenshawAttack error+1.9%
Quinn Yenshaw stuffed by Maya Coblentz-Brown
Set 2 · NEWHAV 22-23 BINGHA · BINGHA 94% → 95%
07
Lauren MacKellarKill+1.8%
Kill by Lauren MacKellar (set by Mirella Rederer)
Set 1 · NEWHAV 13-12 BINGHA · NEWHAV 10% → 12%
08
Marley AlefaioKill+1.7%
Kill by Marley Alefaio (set by Caroline Johnston)
Set 1 · NEWHAV 17-16 BINGHA · NEWHAV 12% → 13%

Official NCAA box

Box score

New Havenaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Lauren MacKellarOH	3	12	9	34	.088	2	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
20Marley AlefaioOH	3	11	5	29	.207	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	11
21Kira LynchMB	3	6	1	11	.455	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	7
18Josie FosterMB	3	5	1	11	.364	0	1	5	0	0	2	1	6
22Caroline JohnstonS	3	4	2	9	.222	34	1	7	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
1Alejandra MejiaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
12Quinn YenshawOH	3	10	8	30	.067	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10
19Mirella RedererL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	1	9	2	0	0	0	0
2Payton MalinoskiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	11	0	0	0	0	0
8Camryn HarrisL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	26	124	.177	43	5	55	5	1	4	3	62

Binghamtonhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Viktoria DimitrovaOH	3	16	1	36	.417	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	18
23Francesca PierdonatiMB	3	7	1	13	.462	0	3	0	3	0	5	2.5	12.5
11Hannah OlmsteadMB	3	3	3	8	.000	0	0	0	0	1	7	4.5	7.5
22Briana BinagiOH	3	4	3	17	.059	1	0	3	10	0	1	0.5	4.5
4Regan KadelS	3	0	0	2	.000	24	1	0	4	0	1	0.5	1.5
1Eve RomanL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	0
8Maya Coblentz-BrownOH	3	4	1	21	.143	0	0	0	1	1	5	3.5	7.5
2Celeste OcampoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	16	0	0	0	1
24Magi MilicevicOH	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
7Eleanor DorritieOH	2	2	0	8	.250	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
9Maia MarinS	2	1	0	1	1.000	8	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team totals		37	9	107	.262	33	5	5	42	2	24	14	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 NEWHAV · BINGHA 6

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 NEWHAVBINGHA 6

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 3 NEWHAVBINGHA 3

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 3 NEWHAVBINGHA 6

Bars above the line = Binghamton leads, below = New Haven leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

New Haven

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%9/15	36%4/11
2	40%8/20	31%4/13
3	64%7/11	27%3/11
4	55%6/11	30%3/10
5	60%6/10	25%2/8
6	86%6/7	40%4/10
All	57%42/74	32%20/63

Binghamton

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	56%9/16	43%6/14
2	80%8/10	58%11/19
3	70%7/10	42%5/12
4	78%7/9	22%2/9
5	60%6/10	57%8/14
6	75%6/8	0%0/6
All	68%43/63	43%32/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

137 rallies

Rally log

#	NEWHAV-BINGHA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.9
2	1-1	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar	blk Francesca Pierdonati, Viktoria Dimitrova	+0.8
3	2-1	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Kira Lynch	set Payton Malinoski	+0.9
4	2-2	NEWHAV	BINGHA×4	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Regan Kadel	+0.8
5	2-3	BINGHA	BINGHA×4	Ace	BINGHA server	aced Team	+1.0
6	2-4	BINGHA	BINGHA×4	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+0.9
7	2-5	BINGHA	BINGHA×4	Bad set	Caroline Johnston		+0.8
8	3-5	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.6
9	3-6	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Regan Kadel	+0.6
10	4-6	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Mirella Rederer	+0.6
11	5-6	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Hannah Olmstead		+1.0
12	5-7	NEWHAV	BINGHA×3	Kill	Briana Binagi	set Regan Kadel	+0.7
13	5-8	BINGHA	BINGHA×3	Kill	Francesca Pierdonati		+0.8
14	5-9	BINGHA	BINGHA×3	Kill	Francesca Pierdonati		+0.7
15	6-9	BINGHA	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.5
16	7-9	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.8
17	8-9	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Briana Binagi		+1.1
18	8-10	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Francesca Pierdonati	set Regan Kadel	+0.8
19	9-10	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.9
20	10-10	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Briana Binagi		+1.4
21	10-11	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Francesca Pierdonati	set Regan Kadel	+1.0
22	11-11	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Serve err	BINGHA server		+1.1
23	11-12	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Regan Kadel	+1.0
24	12-12	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Lauren MacKellar	+1.2
25	13-12	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Mirella Rederer	+1.8
26	13-13	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar	blk Regan Kadel, Hannah Olmstead	+1.2
27	14-13	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Josie Foster	set Caroline Johnston	+1.4
28	14-14	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Regan Kadel	+1.3
29	15-14	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+1.5
30	15-15	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Maya Coblentz-Brown	set Regan Kadel	+1.4
31	16-15	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+1.6
32	16-16	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Attack err	Marley Alefaio	blk Maya Coblentz-Brown, Francesca Pierdonati	+1.5
33	17-16	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+1.7
34	17-17	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Briana Binagi	set Regan Kadel	+1.6
35	17-18	BINGHA	BINGHA	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Regan Kadel	+2.0
36	18-18	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+1.6
37	18-19	NEWHAV	BINGHA×6	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw		+1.6
38	18-20	BINGHA	BINGHA×6	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar	blk Hannah Olmstead, Viktoria Dimitrova	+1.9
39	18-21	BINGHA	BINGHA×6	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw		+1.5
40	18-22	BINGHA	BINGHA×6	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Regan Kadel	+0.9
41	18-23	BINGHA	BINGHA×6	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova		+0.5
42	18-24	BINGHA	BINGHA×6	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Regan Kadel	+0.2
43	19-24	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Attack err	Hannah Olmstead		+0.0
44	19-25	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Hannah Olmstead	set Regan Kadel	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Kira Lynch	set Caroline Johnston	+0.8
2	1-1	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+0.5
3	2-1	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.6
4	2-2	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Attack err	Kira Lynch	blk Hannah Olmstead	+0.5
5	3-2	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+0.6
6	3-3	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+0.6
7	3-4	BINGHA	BINGHA	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar	blk Hannah Olmstead, Briana Binagi	+0.7
8	4-4	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+0.6
9	4-5	NEWHAV	BINGHA×3	Attack err	Josie Foster	blk Maya Coblentz-Brown, Hannah Olmstead	+0.5
10	4-6	BINGHA	BINGHA×3	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw		+0.7
11	4-7	BINGHA	BINGHA×3	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw		+0.6
12	5-7	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Josie Foster	set Caroline Johnston	+0.4
13	6-7	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Maya Coblentz-Brown		+0.7
14	6-8	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Francesca Pierdonati	set Regan Kadel	+0.5
15	7-8	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Serve err	BINGHA server		+0.5
16	7-9	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Francesca Pierdonati	set Regan Kadel	+0.5
17	7-10	BINGHA	BINGHA	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Regan Kadel	+0.6
18	8-10	BINGHA	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.5
19	9-10	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Kira Lynch	set Caroline Johnston	+0.8
20	10-10	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.9
21	10-11	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+0.7
22	11-11	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.8
23	11-12	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Hannah Olmstead	set Regan Kadel	+0.7
24	12-12	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+0.8
25	13-12	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Hannah Olmstead	blk Josie Foster, Lauren MacKellar	+1.2
26	13-13	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Maya Coblentz-Brown	set Regan Kadel	+0.8
27	14-13	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+1.0
28	15-13	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Caroline Johnston	set Briana Binagi	+1.5
29	15-14	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw	blk Hannah Olmstead, Maya Coblentz-Brown	+0.9
30	16-14	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Josie Foster	set Caroline Johnston	+1.2
31	16-15	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Briana Binagi	set Regan Kadel	+1.0
32	17-15	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+1.3
33	18-15	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+1.7
34	18-16	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Attack err	Caroline Johnston		+1.0
35	19-16	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Serve err	BINGHA server		+1.4
36	19-17	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Maia Marin	+1.0
37	19-18	BINGHA	BINGHA	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+1.6
38	20-18	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+1.6
39	20-19	NEWHAV	BINGHA×3	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Maia Marin	+1.2
40	20-20	BINGHA	BINGHA×3	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar	blk Viktoria Dimitrova, Hannah Olmstead	+1.9
41	20-21	BINGHA	BINGHA×3	Kill	Maya Coblentz-Brown	set Regan Kadel	+1.9
42	21-21	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+1.5
43	21-22	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Regan Kadel	+1.6
44	22-22	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+1.7
45	22-23	NEWHAV	BINGHA×3	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw	blk Maya Coblentz-Brown	+1.9
46	22-24	BINGHA	BINGHA×3	Ace	BINGHA server	aced Mirella Rederer	+2.1
47	22-25	BINGHA	BINGHA×3	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw	blk Maya Coblentz-Brown, Francesca Pierdonati	+1.0
Set 3
1	0-1	BINGHA	BINGHA	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Maia Marin	+0.3
2	1-1	BINGHA	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.2
3	2-1	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Viktoria Dimitrova		+0.4
4	3-1	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Mirella Rederer	+0.4
5	3-2	NEWHAV	BINGHA×6	Kill	Eleanor Dorritie	set Maia Marin	+0.3
6	3-3	BINGHA	BINGHA×6	Ace	BINGHA server	aced Team	+0.4
7	3-4	BINGHA	BINGHA×6	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+0.3
8	3-5	BINGHA	BINGHA×6	Ace	BINGHA server	aced Mirella Rederer	+0.3
9	3-6	BINGHA	BINGHA×6	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Maia Marin	+0.2
10	3-7	BINGHA	BINGHA×6	Ace	BINGHA server	aced Team	+0.2
11	4-7	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Mirella Rederer	+0.1
12	5-7	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Josie Foster	set Caroline Johnston	+0.3
13	5-8	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Hannah Olmstead	set Maia Marin	+0.2
14	6-8	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.2
15	6-9	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Bad set	Quinn Yenshaw		+0.2
16	7-9	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Serve err	BINGHA server		+0.2
17	7-10	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Briana Binagi	set Regan Kadel	+0.2
18	7-11	BINGHA	BINGHA	Attack err	Caroline Johnston		+0.2
19	8-11	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Attack err	Briana Binagi	blk Caroline Johnston, Josie Foster	+0.2
20	8-12	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+0.2
21	9-12	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Caroline Johnston	set Mirella Rederer	+0.2
22	9-13	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+0.2
23	9-14	BINGHA	BINGHA	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar	blk Viktoria Dimitrova, Francesca Pierdonati	+0.2
24	10-14	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Caroline Johnston	+0.1
25	11-14	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Francesca Pierdonati	blk Kira Lynch	+0.2
26	11-15	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Maia Marin	+0.2
27	12-15	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Kira Lynch	set Caroline Johnston	+0.2
28	12-16	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Maia Marin	set Briana Binagi	+0.2
29	13-16	BINGHA	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Caroline Johnston	+0.2
30	14-16	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Caroline Johnston	+0.3
31	15-16	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Josie Foster	set Caroline Johnston	+0.4
32	15-17	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+0.4
33	15-18	BINGHA	BINGHA	Attack err	Quinn Yenshaw	blk Hannah Olmstead, Maya Coblentz-Brown	+0.4
34	16-18	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Quinn Yenshaw	set Mirella Rederer	+0.3
35	16-19	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Maya Coblentz-Brown	set Regan Kadel	+0.3
36	16-20	BINGHA	BINGHA	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+0.3
37	17-20	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Caroline Johnston	set Alejandra Mejia	+0.2
38	18-20	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Caroline Johnston		+0.4
39	18-21	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Kill	Francesca Pierdonati	set Regan Kadel	+0.3
40	19-21	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Kill	Kira Lynch	set Caroline Johnston	+0.3
41	19-22	NEWHAV	BINGHA×3	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar	blk Eleanor Dorritie, Francesca Pierdonati	+0.4
42	19-23	BINGHA	BINGHA×3	Kill	Viktoria Dimitrova	set Maia Marin	+0.3
43	19-24	BINGHA	BINGHA×3	Kill	Eleanor Dorritie	set Maia Marin	+0.1
44	20-24	BINGHA	NEWHAV	Serve err	BINGHA server		+0.0
45	21-24	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Kira Lynch	set Lauren MacKellar	+0.1
46	21-25	NEWHAV	BINGHA	Serve err	NEWHAV server		+0.1

Score shown after each rally, New Haven first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.