FinalSun, Sep 13, 2026

AwaySUN-BELT

3:0

HomeAMERICAN

Ga. Southern def. East Carolina 3–0

(25-17, 25-15, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
GA SOU	25	25	25	3
E CAR	17	15	16	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

E CAR above 50 · GA SOU below

Biggest swing: 1.7% to Ga. Southern — set 1, GA SOU 2-0 E CAR. Kill by Anna Powell. E CAR win probability 19% → 17%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

GA SOU 79.8%20.2% E CAR

Ga. Southern wins

3-0

31.4%

3-1

30.2%

3-2

18.3%

East Carolina wins

3-0

3.3%

3-1

6.7%

3-2

10.2%

GA SOU break %: 42.2% vs this opp
E CAR break %: 36.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Anna PowellKill+1.7%
Kill by Anna Powell
Set 1 · GA SOU 2-0 E CAR · GA SOU 81% → 83%
02
Anna PowellAttack error+1.6%
Attack error by Anna Powell
Set 2 · GA SOU 12-11 E CAR · E CAR 8% → 9%
03
Gabby BabinskiKill+1.5%
Kill by Gabby Babinski (set by Lexi Duffy)
Set 1 · GA SOU 5-2 E CAR · GA SOU 83% → 84%
04
Reagan BarthKill+1.5%
Kill by Reagan Barth (set by Bella Ekeler)
Set 2 · GA SOU 14-11 E CAR · GA SOU 92% → 93%
05
GA SOU serverAce+1.4%
Ga. Southern ace on Angeles Alderete
Set 1 · GA SOU 10-6 E CAR · GA SOU 84% → 86%
06
Reagan BarthKill+1.4%
Kill by Reagan Barth (set by Bella Ekeler)
Set 2 · GA SOU 2-1 E CAR · GA SOU 89% → 90%
07
Beka PfefferkornAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Beka Pfefferkorn
Set 2 · GA SOU 5-4 E CAR · E CAR 8% → 9%
08
Ellie PateAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Ellie Pate
Set 2 · GA SOU 3-1 E CAR · GA SOU 90% → 92%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Ga. Southernaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BA	BLK	PTS
25Reagan BarthOH	3	11	6	29	.172	1	1	3	12	4	2	14
16Anna PowellOH	3	13	3	28	.357	0	1	1	9	0	0	14
7Alex MyersMB	3	8	0	17	.471	0	2	1	1	3	1.5	11.5
12Beka PfefferkornOH	3	4	1	14	.214	0	0	0	1	2	1	5
11Kayla KnowlesOH	3	1	1	5	.000	1	0	0	0	7	3.5	4.5
29Bella EkelerS	3	0	0	0	–	16	0	0	3	0	0	0
23Gabby BabinskiOH	3	6	2	14	.286	0	0	0	1	4	2	8
2Lexi DuffyS	3	1	0	1	1.000	15	0	0	10	0	0	1
5Maddie CuginoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	0	0	21	0	0	0
4Ava OlsenOH	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3Mayte CamachoDS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Sam BowronOH	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	13	110	.282	41	4	5	58	20	10	75

East Carolinahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Kai BaileyMB	3	8	2	20	.300	1	0	0	0	0	4	2	10
3Angeles AldereteOH	3	7	9	32	-.063	1	2	5	2	0	1	0.5	7.5
19Ellie PateOH	3	6	8	33	-.061	1	0	8	0	0	0	0	6
22Brook WatkinsS	3	1	0	4	.250	23	1	7	1	1	2	2	3
8Allison ButrumL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
6Ekwe AnwahMB	2	2	0	6	.333	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
2Brooklyn AllisonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	11	0	0	0	0	0
4Emma OrtizL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	5	1	0	0	0	0
12Aulie HuffOH	2	2	2	12	.000	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
10Lhogan WrightOH	2	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
16Clara CloningerDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
7Nina EdwardsMB	1	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
40Naala KasungaOPP	1	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
21Jaci HallOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	23	118	.051	27	4	44	4	1	8	5	48

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 GA SOU · E CAR 4

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 5 GA SOUE CAR 3

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 6 GA SOUE CAR 3

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 5 GA SOUE CAR 4

Bars above the line = East Carolina leads, below = Ga. Southern leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Ga. Southern

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	17%1/6
2	75%6/8	57%8/14
3	75%6/8	54%7/13
4	67%6/9	50%6/12
5	75%6/8	54%7/13
6	86%6/7	60%9/15
All	74%37/50	52%38/73

East Carolina

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%6/12	30%3/10
2	46%6/13	0%0/6
3	60%6/10	33%3/9
4	50%6/12	40%4/10
5	30%6/20	25%2/8
6	83%5/6	14%1/7
All	48%35/73	26%13/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

123 rallies

Rally log

#	GA SOU-E CAR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	E CAR	GA SOU	Serve err	E CAR server		+1.1
2	2-0	GA SOU	GA SOU	Kill	Anna Powell		+1.7
3	2-1	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Brook Watkins	+1.1
4	3-1	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Anna Powell	set Bella Ekeler	+1.1
5	3-2	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Brook Watkins	+1.1
6	4-2	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Alex Myers	set Bella Ekeler	+1.1
7	5-2	GA SOU	GA SOU	Kill	Gabby Babinski	set Lexi Duffy	+1.5
8	5-3	GA SOU	E CAR	Attack err	Gabby Babinski		+1.0
9	6-3	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Alex Myers	set Lexi Duffy	+1.0
10	6-4	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Angeles Alderete	+1.0
11	7-4	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Reagan Barth	set Kayla Knowles	+1.0
12	7-5	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Brook Watkins	+1.0
13	8-5	E CAR	GA SOU	Attack err	Reagan Barth		+1.0
14	8-6	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Brook Watkins	+1.0
15	9-6	E CAR	GA SOU×4	Attack err	Angeles Alderete	blk Kayla Knowles, Reagan Barth	+1.1
16	10-6	GA SOU	GA SOU×4	Ace	GA SOU server	aced Angeles Alderete	+1.4
17	11-6	GA SOU	GA SOU×4	Kill	Anna Powell	set Bella Ekeler	+1.1
18	12-6	GA SOU	GA SOU×4	Kill	Anna Powell	set Bella Ekeler	+0.8
19	12-7	GA SOU	E CAR	Serve err	GA SOU server		+0.4
20	13-7	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Anna Powell	set Bella Ekeler	+0.5
21	14-7	GA SOU	GA SOU	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+0.6
22	14-8	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Brook Watkins	set Ellie Pate	+0.3
23	15-8	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Alex Myers	set Bella Ekeler	+0.3
24	16-8	GA SOU	GA SOU	Kill	Anna Powell	set Lexi Duffy	+0.3
25	16-9	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Brook Watkins	+0.1
26	17-9	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Alex Myers	set Lexi Duffy	+0.2
27	17-10	GA SOU	E CAR×3	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Brook Watkins	+0.1
28	17-11	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Brook Watkins	+0.3
29	17-12	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Reagan Barth	blk Aulie Huff, Kai Bailey	+0.5
30	18-12	E CAR	GA SOU×5	Kill	Lexi Duffy	set Reagan Barth	+0.5
31	19-12	GA SOU	GA SOU×5	Attack err	Aulie Huff	blk Kayla Knowles, Reagan Barth	+0.4
32	20-12	GA SOU	GA SOU×5	Attack err	Angeles Alderete	blk Kayla Knowles, Gabby Babinski	+0.2
33	21-12	GA SOU	GA SOU×5	Ace	GA SOU server	aced Brook Watkins	+0.1
34	22-12	GA SOU	GA SOU×5	Attack err	Kai Bailey		+0.0
35	22-13	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Brook Watkins	+0.0
36	22-14	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Reagan Barth		+0.0
37	23-14	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Gabby Babinski	set Mayte Camacho	+0.0
38	23-15	GA SOU	E CAR×3	Attack err	Reagan Barth	blk Brook Watkins, Kai Bailey	+0.0
39	23-16	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Reagan Barth	blk Kai Bailey, Brook Watkins	+0.0
40	23-17	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Reagan Barth	blk Brook Watkins	+0.0
41	24-17	E CAR	GA SOU	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.1
42	25-17	GA SOU	GA SOU	Kill	Anna Powell	set Sam Bowron	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Brook Watkins	+1.0
2	1-1	E CAR	GA SOU×3	Attack err	Angeles Alderete		+0.9
3	2-1	GA SOU	GA SOU×3	Kill	Reagan Barth	set Bella Ekeler	+1.4
4	3-1	GA SOU	GA SOU×3	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+1.3
5	3-2	GA SOU	E CAR	Serve err	GA SOU server		+0.8
6	4-2	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Kayla Knowles	set Bella Ekeler	+0.8
7	5-2	GA SOU	GA SOU	Attack err	Ellie Pate	blk Alex Myers, Beka Pfefferkorn	+1.1
8	5-3	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Brook Watkins	+0.7
9	5-4	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Beka Pfefferkorn		+1.3
10	6-4	E CAR	GA SOU×3	Attack err	Aulie Huff		+0.9
11	7-4	GA SOU	GA SOU×3	Attack err	Angeles Alderete		+1.2
12	8-4	GA SOU	GA SOU×3	Kill	Anna Powell	set Maddie Cugino	+1.0
13	8-5	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Emma Ortiz	+0.6
14	9-5	E CAR	GA SOU	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.6
15	9-6	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Brook Watkins	+0.6
16	10-6	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Gabby Babinski	set Lexi Duffy	+0.7
17	10-7	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Brook Watkins	+0.6
18	11-7	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Reagan Barth	set Lexi Duffy	+0.7
19	11-8	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Brook Watkins	+0.6
20	12-8	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Reagan Barth	set Bella Ekeler	+0.7
21	12-9	GA SOU	E CAR×3	Serve err	GA SOU server		+0.6
22	12-10	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Ekwe Anwah	set Brook Watkins	+1.2
23	12-11	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Anna Powell		+1.6
24	13-11	E CAR	GA SOU	Serve err	E CAR server		+1.1
25	14-11	GA SOU	GA SOU	Kill	Reagan Barth	set Bella Ekeler	+1.5
26	14-12	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Ekwe Anwah	set Brook Watkins	+0.9
27	15-12	E CAR	GA SOU×3	Kill	Anna Powell	set Bella Ekeler	+1.0
28	16-12	GA SOU	GA SOU×3	Attack err	Angeles Alderete		+1.2
29	17-12	GA SOU	GA SOU×3	Kill	Gabby Babinski	set Maddie Cugino	+0.9
30	17-13	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Brook Watkins	+0.4
31	18-13	E CAR	GA SOU×6	Kill	Anna Powell	set Lexi Duffy	+0.5
32	19-13	GA SOU	GA SOU×6	Kill	Reagan Barth	set Lexi Duffy	+0.5
33	20-13	GA SOU	GA SOU×6	Kill	Gabby Babinski	set Maddie Cugino	+0.3
34	21-13	GA SOU	GA SOU×6	Kill	Reagan Barth	set Maddie Cugino	+0.1
35	22-13	GA SOU	GA SOU×6	Attack err	Ellie Pate	blk Alex Myers, Reagan Barth	+0.0
36	23-13	GA SOU	GA SOU×6	Ace	GA SOU server	aced Emma Ortiz	+0.0
37	23-14	GA SOU	E CAR	Serve err	GA SOU server		+0.0
38	24-14	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Alex Myers	set Lexi Duffy	+0.0
39	24-15	GA SOU	E CAR	Serve err	GA SOU server		+0.0
40	25-15	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Reagan Barth	set Lexi Duffy	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Reagan Barth	set Maddie Cugino	+0.4
2	2-0	GA SOU	GA SOU	Attack err	Angeles Alderete		+0.7
3	2-1	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Brook Watkins	+0.4
4	3-1	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Beka Pfefferkorn	set Bella Ekeler	+0.4
5	4-1	GA SOU	GA SOU	Kill	Beka Pfefferkorn	set Bella Ekeler	+0.6
6	4-2	GA SOU	E CAR	Attack err	Anna Powell		+0.4
7	4-3	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Reagan Barth		+0.7
8	5-3	E CAR	GA SOU	Attack err	Naala Kasunga		+0.4
9	5-4	GA SOU	E CAR×4	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Brook Watkins	+0.5
10	5-5	E CAR	E CAR×4	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Brook Watkins	+0.8
11	5-6	E CAR	E CAR×4	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Kai Bailey	+0.9
12	5-7	E CAR	E CAR×4	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Brook Watkins	+1.0
13	6-7	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Anna Powell	set Lexi Duffy	+0.6
14	6-8	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Brook Watkins	+0.7
15	7-8	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Gabby Babinski	set Lexi Duffy	+0.6
16	8-8	GA SOU	GA SOU	Ace	GA SOU server	aced Angeles Alderete	+1.0
17	8-9	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Brook Watkins	+0.7
18	9-9	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Reagan Barth	set Lexi Duffy	+0.6
19	10-9	GA SOU	GA SOU	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+0.9
20	10-10	GA SOU	E CAR	Attack err	Anna Powell		+0.6
21	10-11	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Kayla Knowles		+1.1
22	11-11	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Anna Powell		+0.7
23	11-12	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Nina Edwards	set Brook Watkins	+0.7
24	12-12	E CAR	GA SOU×4	Kill	Anna Powell	set Bella Ekeler	+0.7
25	13-12	GA SOU	GA SOU×4	Kill	Beka Pfefferkorn	set Bella Ekeler	+1.1
26	14-12	GA SOU	GA SOU×4	Attack err	Nina Edwards	blk Alex Myers, Beka Pfefferkorn	+1.0
27	15-12	GA SOU	GA SOU×4	Attack err	Angeles Alderete		+0.8
28	15-13	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Naala Kasunga	set Brook Watkins	+0.5
29	16-13	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Beka Pfefferkorn	set Bella Ekeler	+0.5
30	16-14	GA SOU	E CAR	Attack err	Gabby Babinski	blk Angeles Alderete, Kai Bailey	+0.5
31	17-14	E CAR	GA SOU×3	Kill	Alex Myers	set Lexi Duffy	+0.5
32	18-14	GA SOU	GA SOU×3	Kill	Alex Myers	set Lexi Duffy	+0.7
33	19-14	GA SOU	GA SOU×3	Kill	Alex Myers	set Lexi Duffy	+0.4
34	19-15	GA SOU	E CAR	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+0.2
35	20-15	E CAR	GA SOU×5	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+0.3
36	21-15	GA SOU	GA SOU×5	Attack err	Ellie Pate	blk Kayla Knowles, Gabby Babinski	+0.2
37	22-15	GA SOU	GA SOU×5	Attack err	Ellie Pate	blk Gabby Babinski, Kayla Knowles	+0.1
38	23-15	GA SOU	GA SOU×5	Attack err	Angeles Alderete		+0.0
39	24-15	GA SOU	GA SOU×5	Attack err	Kai Bailey	blk Kayla Knowles, Reagan Barth	+0.0
40	24-16	GA SOU	E CAR	Kill	Lhogan Wright	set Brook Watkins	+0.0
41	25-16	E CAR	GA SOU	Kill	Reagan Barth	set Maddie Cugino	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Ga. Southern first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.