FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayOVC

0:3

HomeSOCON

Chattanooga def. Tennessee St. 3–0

(25-12, 25-14, 28-26)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
TENNST	12	14	26	0
CHAT	25	25	28	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CHAT above 50 · TENNST below

Biggest swing: 0.4% to Tennessee St. — set 3, TENNST 25-24 CHAT. Kill by Wiktoria Jakubik (set by Sydney Robinson). CHAT win probability 100% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

TENNST 1.0%99.0% CHAT

Tennessee St. wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.7%

Chattanooga wins

3-0

74.3%

3-1

21.0%

3-2

3.7%

TENNST break %: 34.3% vs this opp
CHAT break %: 52.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Wiktoria JakubikKill+0.4%
Kill by Wiktoria Jakubik (set by Sydney Robinson)
Set 3 · TENNST 25-24 CHAT · TENNST 0% → 1%
02
Jordin GlassKill+0.3%
Kill by Jordin Glass (set by Mallory Merz)
Set 3 · TENNST 25-25 CHAT · CHAT 99% → 99%
03
CHAT serverService error+0.3%
Chattanooga service error
Set 3 · TENNST 26-25 CHAT · TENNST 1% → 1%
04
Kynli KirkendollKill+0.3%
Kill by Kynli Kirkendoll (set by Mallory Merz)
Set 3 · TENNST 26-26 CHAT · CHAT 99% → 99%
05
TENNST serverAce+0.3%
Tennessee St. ace on Jordin Glass
Set 1 · TENNST 5-2 CHAT · TENNST 1% → 2%
06
Melae LacyAttack error+0.3%
Attack error by Melae Lacy
Set 3 · TENNST 26-27 CHAT · CHAT 99% → 100%
07
Gracie RoseAttack error+0.3%
Attack error by Gracie Rose
Set 3 · TENNST 24-24 CHAT · TENNST 0% → 0%
08
Addison WalkerAttack error+0.2%
Attack error by Addison Walker
Set 1 · TENNST 3-1 CHAT · TENNST 1% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Tennessee St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
11Wiktoria JakubikOH	3	10	1	17	.529	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.5	11.5
16Sydney RobinsonMB	3	7	5	28	.071	2	0	1	6	1	0	0	7
1Carsyn StansberryOH	3	3	5	22	-.091	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3
15Triniti JacksonS	3	1	0	3	.333	22	1	1	7	0	1	0.5	2.5
13Gabriella BlevinsMB	2	1	2	6	-.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
5Savanna MooreMB	2	0	1	5	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Melae LacyOH	3	8	4	25	.160	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	9
3Sydni PostonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	3	2	7	2	0	0	3
10Italya CarterS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	1	4	0	0	0	0
4Jordan ImperialL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	15	3	0	0	0
6Mimi HarrisS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
7Gabrielle WashingtonMB	1	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	2
Team totals		31	19	112	.107	31	5	7	42	7	6	3	52

Chattanoogahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Jordin GlassMB	3	16	1	22	.682	0	0	2	6	1	1	1	1.5	17.5
11Kynli KirkendollMB	3	7	3	20	.200	0	1	0	7	1	2	1	2.5	10.5
16Ashley ReynoldsS	3	6	1	9	.556	27	1	1	6	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
23Gracie RoseOH	3	3	2	16	.063	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
1Addison WalkerOH	2	3	1	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
6Delaney WingenbachOH	1	2	1	5	.200	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2
39Elena VukmanovOH	3	7	0	17	.412	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	7
9Caiti BarthelL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	4	1	12	1	0	0	0	4
2Ryan OdenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	1
4Mallory MerzS	2	0	0	0	–	7	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
12Sophia GarridoOH	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
15Destiny WigginsOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Finley HilliardL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	10	98	.347	41	7	6	51	5	3	4	5	78

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 TENNST · CHAT 9

Set 1

12-25

Longest run 3 TENNSTCHAT 6

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 3 TENNSTCHAT 9

Set 3

26-28

Longest run 4 TENNSTCHAT 5

Bars above the line = Chattanooga leads, below = Tennessee St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Tennessee St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	88%7/8	54%7/13
2	78%7/9	56%9/16
3	40%6/15	36%4/11
4	24%4/17	0%0/6
5	20%4/20	0%0/4
6	57%4/7	0%0/4
All	42%32/76	37%20/54

Chattanooga

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	29%2/7
2	54%7/13	0%0/7
3	64%7/11	42%5/12
4	100%5/5	62%8/13
5	100%4/4	83%19/23
6	67%4/6	71%10/14
All	63%34/54	58%44/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	TENNST-CHAT	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	TENNST	CHAT	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.1
2	1-1	CHAT	TENNST×3	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.1
3	2-1	TENNST	TENNST×3	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.2
4	3-1	TENNST	TENNST×3	Attack err	Addison Walker		+0.2
5	3-2	TENNST	CHAT	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.2
6	4-2	CHAT	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Triniti Jackson	+0.2
7	5-2	TENNST	TENNST	Ace	TENNST server	aced Jordin Glass	+0.3
8	5-3	TENNST	CHAT×3	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.2
9	5-4	CHAT	CHAT×3	Attack err	Gabriella Blevins		+0.2
10	5-5	CHAT	CHAT×3	Attack err	Sydney Robinson		+0.2
11	6-5	CHAT	TENNST	Serve err	CHAT server		+0.2
12	6-6	TENNST	CHAT×3	Kill	Gracie Rose	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.2
13	6-7	CHAT	CHAT×3	Attack err	Sydney Robinson		+0.2
14	6-8	CHAT	CHAT×3	Ace	CHAT server	aced Sydni Poston	+0.2
15	7-8	CHAT	TENNST	Kill	Melae Lacy	set Mimi Harris	+0.1
16	7-9	TENNST	CHAT×4	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.1
17	7-10	CHAT	CHAT×4	Kill	Delaney Wingenbach	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.1
18	7-11	CHAT	CHAT×4	Kill	Delaney Wingenbach		+0.1
19	7-12	CHAT	CHAT×4	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.1
20	8-12	CHAT	TENNST	Kill	Melae Lacy	set Mimi Harris	+0.0
21	8-13	TENNST	CHAT	Attack err	Carsyn Stansberry		+0.1
22	9-13	CHAT	TENNST	Attack err	Delaney Wingenbach	blk Melae Lacy, Wiktoria Jakubik	+0.1
23	9-14	TENNST	CHAT	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.1
24	10-14	CHAT	TENNST	Serve err	CHAT server		+0.1
25	10-15	TENNST	CHAT	Attack err	Gabriella Blevins		+0.1
26	10-16	CHAT	CHAT	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.0
27	11-16	CHAT	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
28	11-17	TENNST	CHAT×3	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.0
29	11-18	CHAT	CHAT×3	Ace	CHAT server	aced Sydni Poston	+0.0
30	11-19	CHAT	CHAT×3	Kill	Gracie Rose	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.0
31	12-19	CHAT	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
32	12-20	TENNST	CHAT×6	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.0
33	12-21	CHAT	CHAT×6	Attack err	Sydney Robinson		+0.0
34	12-22	CHAT	CHAT×6	Attack err	Melae Lacy	blk Kynli Kirkendoll	+0.0
35	12-23	CHAT	CHAT×6	Kill	Elena Vukmanov	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.0
36	12-24	CHAT	CHAT×6	Kill	Ashley Reynolds	set Ryan Oden	+0.0
37	12-25	CHAT	CHAT×6	Kill	Elena Vukmanov	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	CHAT	CHAT	Ace	CHAT server	aced Carsyn Stansberry	+0.1
2	1-1	CHAT	TENNST	Serve err	CHAT server		+0.1
3	2-1	TENNST	TENNST	Kill	Melae Lacy	set Triniti Jackson	+0.1
4	2-2	TENNST	CHAT	Kill	Addison Walker	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.1
5	3-2	CHAT	TENNST	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.1
6	3-3	TENNST	CHAT×3	Kill	Addison Walker	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.1
7	3-4	CHAT	CHAT×3	Kill	Addison Walker	set Caiti Barthel	+0.1
8	3-5	CHAT	CHAT×3	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.1
9	4-5	CHAT	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Sydni Poston	+0.1
10	4-6	TENNST	CHAT	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.1
11	4-7	CHAT	CHAT	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll		+0.1
12	5-7	CHAT	TENNST	Kill	Gabriella Blevins	set Italya Carter	+0.1
13	5-8	TENNST	CHAT×9	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.0
14	5-9	CHAT	CHAT×9	Ace	CHAT server	aced Jordan Imperial	+0.1
15	5-10	CHAT	CHAT×9	Kill	Ashley Reynolds	set Caiti Barthel	+0.0
16	5-11	CHAT	CHAT×9	Kill	Ashley Reynolds	set Caiti Barthel	+0.0
17	5-12	CHAT	CHAT×9	Attack err	Sydney Robinson		+0.0
18	5-13	CHAT	CHAT×9	Attack err	Carsyn Stansberry	blk Kynli Kirkendoll, Ashley Reynolds	+0.0
19	5-14	CHAT	CHAT×9	Ace	CHAT server	aced Jordan Imperial	+0.0
20	5-15	CHAT	CHAT×9	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.0
21	5-16	CHAT	CHAT×9	Kill	Elena Vukmanov	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.0
22	6-16	CHAT	TENNST	Kill	Carsyn Stansberry	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
23	6-17	TENNST	CHAT×3	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.0
24	6-18	CHAT	CHAT×3	Attack err	Wiktoria Jakubik	blk Jordin Glass	+0.0
25	6-19	CHAT	CHAT×3	Attack err	Carsyn Stansberry		+0.0
26	7-19	CHAT	TENNST×3	Kill	Triniti Jackson	set Sydney Robinson	+0.0
27	8-19	TENNST	TENNST×3	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
28	9-19	TENNST	TENNST×3	Kill	Melae Lacy	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
29	9-20	TENNST	CHAT	Kill	Elena Vukmanov	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.0
30	10-20	CHAT	TENNST×3	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
31	11-20	TENNST	TENNST×3	Ace	TENNST server	aced Caiti Barthel	+0.0
32	12-20	TENNST	TENNST×3	Kill	Melae Lacy	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
33	12-21	TENNST	CHAT	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
34	13-21	CHAT	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
35	13-22	TENNST	CHAT	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Mallory Merz	+0.0
36	13-23	CHAT	CHAT	Attack err	Savanna Moore	blk Kynli Kirkendoll	+0.0
37	14-23	CHAT	TENNST	Attack err	Kynli Kirkendoll		+0.0
38	14-24	TENNST	CHAT	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
39	14-25	CHAT	CHAT	Kill	Gracie Rose	set Mallory Merz	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	TENNST	TENNST	Kill	Carsyn Stansberry	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
2	2-0	TENNST	TENNST	Kill	Melae Lacy	set Jordan Imperial	+0.1
3	2-1	TENNST	CHAT	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Mallory Merz	+0.0
4	3-1	CHAT	TENNST	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.1
5	4-1	TENNST	TENNST	Ace	TENNST server	aced Gracie Rose	+0.1
6	4-2	TENNST	CHAT	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.0
7	5-2	CHAT	TENNST×3	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.1
8	6-2	TENNST	TENNST×3	Attack err	Gracie Rose	blk Gabrielle Washington, Melae Lacy	+0.1
9	7-2	TENNST	TENNST×3	Kill	Gabrielle Washington	set Triniti Jackson	+0.1
10	7-3	TENNST	CHAT	Serve err	TENNST server		+0.1
11	8-3	CHAT	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Triniti Jackson	+0.1
12	8-4	TENNST	CHAT×5	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.1
13	8-5	CHAT	CHAT×5	Kill	Ashley Reynolds	set Caiti Barthel	+0.1
14	8-6	CHAT	CHAT×5	Ace	CHAT server	aced Sydney Robinson	+0.1
15	8-7	CHAT	CHAT×5	Attack err	Gabrielle Washington		+0.1
16	8-8	CHAT	CHAT×5	Attack err	Sydney Robinson		+0.1
17	9-8	CHAT	TENNST	Kill	Sydney Robinson	set Italya Carter	+0.1
18	9-9	TENNST	CHAT×5	Kill	Elena Vukmanov	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.1
19	9-10	CHAT	CHAT×5	Ace	CHAT server	aced Jordan Imperial	+0.1
20	9-11	CHAT	CHAT×5	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.0
21	9-12	CHAT	CHAT×5	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.0
22	9-13	CHAT	CHAT×5	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Finley Hilliard	+0.0
23	10-13	CHAT	TENNST	Attack err	Ashley Reynolds	blk Triniti Jackson, Gabrielle Washington	+0.0
24	10-14	TENNST	CHAT	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.0
25	11-14	CHAT	TENNST×4	Attack err	Sophia Garrido		+0.0
26	12-14	TENNST	TENNST×4	Attack err	Jordin Glass		+0.0
27	13-14	TENNST	TENNST×4	Attack err	Kynli Kirkendoll		+0.1
28	14-14	TENNST	TENNST×4	Ace	TENNST server	aced Elena Vukmanov	+0.1
29	14-15	TENNST	CHAT	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Mallory Merz	+0.1
30	15-15	CHAT	TENNST	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.1
31	15-16	TENNST	CHAT	Attack err	Melae Lacy	blk Jordin Glass, Gracie Rose	+0.1
32	15-17	CHAT	CHAT	Bad set	Triniti Jackson		+0.1
33	16-17	CHAT	TENNST	Serve err	CHAT server		+0.1
34	17-17	TENNST	TENNST	Kill	Melae Lacy	set Sydni Poston	+0.1
35	17-18	TENNST	CHAT	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Mallory Merz	+0.1
36	18-18	CHAT	TENNST	Kill	Melae Lacy	set Triniti Jackson	+0.1
37	18-19	TENNST	CHAT	Kill	Ashley Reynolds	set Finley Hilliard	+0.1
38	19-19	CHAT	TENNST	Serve err	CHAT server		+0.1
39	19-20	TENNST	CHAT	Kill	Ashley Reynolds	set Finley Hilliard	+0.1
40	19-21	CHAT	CHAT	Attack err	Carsyn Stansberry		+0.1
41	20-21	CHAT	TENNST	Attack err	Kynli Kirkendoll		+0.1
42	20-22	TENNST	CHAT	Kill	Elena Vukmanov	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.1
43	20-23	CHAT	CHAT	Kill	Elena Vukmanov	set Ashley Reynolds	+0.1
44	21-23	CHAT	TENNST	Kill	Carsyn Stansberry	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
45	21-24	TENNST	CHAT	Attack err	Carsyn Stansberry		+0.1
46	22-24	CHAT	TENNST×4	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Triniti Jackson	+0.0
47	23-24	TENNST	TENNST×4	Ace	TENNST server	aced Kynli Kirkendoll	+0.1
48	24-24	TENNST	TENNST×4	Attack err	Gracie Rose		+0.3
49	25-24	TENNST	TENNST×4	Kill	Wiktoria Jakubik	set Sydney Robinson	+0.4
50	25-25	TENNST	CHAT	Kill	Jordin Glass	set Mallory Merz	+0.3
51	26-25	CHAT	TENNST	Serve err	CHAT server		+0.3
52	26-26	TENNST	CHAT×3	Kill	Kynli Kirkendoll	set Mallory Merz	+0.3
53	26-27	CHAT	CHAT×3	Attack err	Melae Lacy		+0.3
54	26-28	CHAT	CHAT×3	Attack err	Melae Lacy		+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Tennessee St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.