CollegeVolleyball
Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 18, 2026

Bellarmine def. Chattanooga 31

(25-22, 19-25, 25-12, 25-22)
Set1234Sets
CHAT222512221
BELLAR251925253

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BELLAR above 50 · CHAT below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100BELLARCHATBiggest swing +4.3% BELLAR · S1 20-21rally 175 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.3% to Bellarmine — set 1, CHAT 20-21 BELLAR. Attack error by Kynli Kirkendoll. BELLAR win probability 75%79%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CHAT 22.6%77.4% BELLAR

Chattanooga wins

3-0
3.8%
3-1
7.6%
3-2
11.1%

Bellarmine wins

3-0
29.1%
3-1
29.4%
3-2
18.9%
CHAT break %
41.6% vs this opp
BELLAR break %
47.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

  1. 01
    Kynli KirkendollAttack error+4.3%

    Attack error by Kynli Kirkendoll

    Set 1 · CHAT 20-21 BELLAR · BELLAR 75%79%

  2. 02
    Natalie BlandKill+4.1%

    Kill by Natalie Bland (set by Mary Herman)

    Set 1 · CHAT 20-20 BELLAR · BELLAR 70%75%

  3. 03
    Mary HermanKill+3.9%

    Kill by Mary Herman

    Set 1 · CHAT 20-22 BELLAR · BELLAR 79%83%

  4. 04
    Natalie BlandAttack error+3.8%

    Attack error by Natalie Bland

    Set 4 · CHAT 16-13 BELLAR · CHAT 21%25%

  5. 05

    Kill by Ashley Reynolds (set by Kynli Kirkendoll)

    Set 4 · CHAT 15-13 BELLAR · CHAT 17%21%

  6. 06
    Erika SmithKill+3.7%

    Kill by Erika Smith (set by Maddie Carnes)

    Set 4 · CHAT 16-16 BELLAR · BELLAR 81%85%

  7. 07
    Delaney WingenbachAttack error+3.7%

    Delaney Wingenbach stuffed by Erika Smith & Maddie Carnes

    Set 4 · CHAT 16-17 BELLAR · BELLAR 85%89%

  8. 08
    Gracie RoseAttack error+3.6%

    Attack error by Gracie Rose

    Set 1 · CHAT 20-19 BELLAR · BELLAR 67%70%

Official NCAA box

Box score

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415437.2970225200017
46723-.04300021010.56.5
45318.111200600005
42010.200000200424
4205.4002610900003
4001.000100320000
46416.12500241132.58.5
4214.250111420003
40004001830000
4000000210000
3000400200000
1034-.750000100000
Team totals3822118.1363845581218581
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413634.20603310210117
415942.1430002100015
410117.52920450010.510.5
48218.3330000004210
47324.167000210218
4107.143473270031.55.5
4000030600003
4000123400002
4000014000001
40002012000000
Team totals5421142.232521217564110694

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 CHAT · BELLAR 7

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 4 CHATBELLAR 7

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 4 CHATBELLAR 4

Set 3

12-25

Longest run 3 CHATBELLAR 7

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 4 CHATBELLAR 5

Bars above the line = Bellarmine leads, below = Chattanooga leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Chattanooga

SlotSideout %Break %
1
91%10/11
60%12/20
2
64%9/14
29%4/14
3
43%9/21
10%1/10
4
50%8/16
40%6/15
5
41%7/17
27%3/11
6
50%7/14
42%5/12
All
54%50/93
38%31/82

Bellarmine

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%10/19
31%4/13
2
67%10/15
29%4/14
3
75%9/12
53%10/19
4
67%8/12
33%4/12
5
70%7/10
65%13/20
6
50%7/14
53%8/15
All
62%51/82
46%43/93

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

175 rallies

Rally log

#CHAT-BELLARSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0BELLARCHATAttack errNatalie Bland+1.5
21-1CHATBELLAR×3KillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+1.4
31-2BELLARBELLAR×3Attack errElena Vukmanovblk Mary Herman, Maddie Hagan+1.7
41-3BELLARBELLAR×3KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.6
52-3BELLARCHATKillElena Vukmanovset Caiti Barthel+1.3
62-4CHATBELLARAttack errGracie Rose+1.3
73-4BELLARCHATKillGracie Roseset Ashley Reynolds+1.4
83-5CHATBELLARAttack errJordin Glassblk Natalie Bland+1.4
94-5BELLARCHATKillJordin Glassset Ashley Reynolds+1.4
105-5CHATCHATKillJordin Glassset Ashley Reynolds+2.0
115-6CHATBELLARKillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+1.5
126-6BELLARCHATKillGracie Roseset Ashley Reynolds+1.6
136-7CHATBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Abbie Lyttle+1.6
146-8BELLARBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.9
157-8BELLARCHATServe errBELLAR server+1.5
168-8CHATCHATBad setMady Yaden+2.1
178-9CHATBELLARServe errCHAT server+1.7
189-9BELLARCHATServe errBELLAR server+1.8
199-10CHATBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.8
2010-10BELLARCHATAttack errMady Yaden+1.9
2110-11CHATBELLARKillMaddie Haganset Maddie Carnes+1.8
2211-11BELLARCHAT×4Serve errBELLAR server+1.9
2312-11CHATCHAT×4KillGracie Roseset Caiti Barthel+2.6
2413-11CHATCHAT×4Attack errNatalie Blandblk Jordin Glass+2.8
2514-11CHATCHAT×4Attack errMaddie Haganblk Gracie Rose, Bailey Burgess+2.9
2614-12CHATBELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+2.0
2715-12BELLARCHATKillJordin Glassset Mallory Merz+2.4
2815-13CHATBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+2.0
2916-13BELLARCHATKillGracie Roseset Ashley Reynolds+2.5
3017-13CHATCHATAttack errErika Smith+2.9
3117-14CHATBELLARKillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+1.8
3218-14BELLARCHATKillElena Vukmanovset Ashley Reynolds+2.4
3318-15CHATBELLARAttack errJordin Glass+1.8
3419-15BELLARCHATServe errBELLAR server+2.5
3519-16CHATBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.8
3620-16BELLARCHATServe errBELLAR server+2.5
3720-17CHATBELLAR×7KillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+1.7
3820-18BELLARBELLAR×7KillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+2.9
3920-19BELLARBELLAR×7Attack errGracie Rose+3.6
4020-20BELLARBELLAR×7KillNatalie Blandset Mary Herman+4.1
4120-21BELLARBELLAR×7Attack errKynli Kirkendoll+4.3
4220-22BELLARBELLAR×7KillMary Herman+3.9
4320-23BELLARBELLAR×7KillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+2.9
4421-23BELLARCHATKillGracie Roseset Caiti Barthel+1.4
4521-24CHATBELLARKillMaddie Haganset Maddie Carnes+2.4
4622-24BELLARCHATAttack errNatalie Bland+1.0
4722-25CHATBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+2.2
Set 2
11-0CHATCHATKillElena Vukmanovset Ashley Reynolds+1.5
22-0CHATCHATAceCHAT serveraced Maddie Hagan+1.6
32-1CHATBELLARAttack errGracie Rose+1.2
43-1BELLARCHATKillKynli Kirkendollset Ashley Reynolds+1.3
54-1CHATCHATKillJordin Glassset Ashley Reynolds+1.7
64-2CHATBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Payton Parsons+1.2
75-2BELLARCHATServe errBELLAR server+1.4
85-3CHATBELLARServe errCHAT server+1.2
95-4BELLARBELLARAceBELLAR serveraced Caroline Peterson+1.6
106-4BELLARCHATAttack errErika Smith+1.4
116-5CHATBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+1.3
126-6BELLARBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.6
137-6BELLARCHATServe errBELLAR server+1.4
147-7CHATBELLARKillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+1.3
158-7BELLARCHAT×4KillElena Vukmanovset Ashley Reynolds+1.4
169-7CHATCHAT×4Attack errMady Yaden+1.9
1710-7CHATCHAT×4KillBailey Burgessset Ashley Reynolds+2.0
1811-7CHATCHAT×4KillElena Vukmanovset Ashley Reynolds+1.9
1911-8CHATBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.3
2012-8BELLARCHATKillElena Vukmanovset Mallory Merz+1.6
2112-9CHATBELLARServe errCHAT server+1.3
2213-9BELLARCHATKillKynli Kirkendollset Mallory Merz+1.6
2314-9CHATCHATAttack errNatalie Blandblk Bailey Burgess, Jordin Glass+1.9
2414-10CHATBELLARKillMaddie Haganset Maddie Carnes+1.1
2515-10BELLARCHATServe errBELLAR server+1.5
2615-11CHATBELLARKillMaddie Haganset Maddie Carnes+1.1
2716-11BELLARCHATKillJordin Glassset Ashley Reynolds+1.5
2816-12CHATBELLAR×3Attack errElena Vukmanov+1.1
2916-13BELLARBELLAR×3Attack errElena Vukmanovblk Erika Smith, Maddie Carnes+1.7
3016-14BELLARBELLAR×3AceBELLAR serveraced Finley Hilliard+2.0
3117-14BELLARCHAT×3KillCaroline Petersonset Ashley Reynolds+2.0
3218-14CHATCHAT×3KillElena Vukmanovset Ashley Reynolds+2.3
3319-14CHATCHAT×3KillAshley Reynoldsset Caroline Peterson+1.9
3419-15CHATBELLARServe errCHAT server+1.0
3520-15BELLARCHATServe errBELLAR server+1.6
3621-15CHATCHATKillElena Vukmanovset Ashley Reynolds+1.3
3721-16CHATBELLAR×4KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.6
3821-17BELLARBELLAR×4AceBELLAR serveraced Elena Vukmanov+1.1
3921-18BELLARBELLAR×4AceBELLAR serveraced Elena Vukmanov+1.6
4021-19BELLARBELLAR×4AceBELLAR serveraced Caiti Barthel+2.2
4122-19BELLARCHAT×4KillElena Vukmanovset Mallory Merz+2.6
4223-19CHATCHAT×4Attack errMady Yaden+2.4
4324-19CHATCHAT×4KillGracie Roseset Kynli Kirkendoll+1.3
4425-19CHATCHAT×4Attack errMady Yaden+0.4
Set 3
11-0BELLARCHATKillElena Vukmanovset Caiti Barthel+2.3
21-1CHATBELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+2.1
31-2BELLARBELLARKillMaddie Haganset Maddie Carnes+2.6
42-2BELLARCHATKillElena Vukmanovset Ashley Reynolds+2.2
52-3CHATBELLARServe errCHAT server+2.1
63-3BELLARCHATAttack errMaddie Hagan+2.2
73-4CHATBELLARAttack errGracie Rose+2.2
84-4BELLARCHATServe errBELLAR server+2.3
94-5CHATBELLAR×7KillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+2.2
104-6BELLARBELLAR×7KillMaddie Carnesset Payton Parsons+2.6
114-7BELLARBELLAR×7Attack errJordin Glass+2.4
124-8BELLARBELLAR×7AceBELLAR serveraced Caiti Barthel+2.1
134-9BELLARBELLAR×7Attack errGracie Rose+1.7
144-10BELLARBELLAR×7AceBELLAR serveraced Jordin Glass+1.4
154-11BELLARBELLAR×7KillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+1.1
165-11BELLARCHATAttack errNatalie Bland+0.7
175-12CHATBELLAR×4Bad setAshley Reynolds+0.8
185-13BELLARBELLAR×4KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.8
195-14BELLARBELLAR×4Attack errKynli Kirkendoll+0.5
205-15BELLARBELLAR×4AceBELLAR serveraced Caroline Peterson+0.3
216-15BELLARCHAT×3KillElena Vukmanovset Ashley Reynolds+0.2
227-15CHATCHAT×3Attack errMady Yaden+0.3
238-15CHATCHAT×3KillCaroline Petersonset Ashley Reynolds+0.5
248-16CHATBELLARAttack errCaroline Petersonblk Erika Smith, Maddie Carnes+0.5
258-17BELLARBELLARAceBELLAR serveraced Caiti Barthel+0.4
269-17BELLARCHATServe errBELLAR server+0.2
279-18CHATBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.3
289-19BELLARBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+0.2
2910-19BELLARCHATKillElena Vukmanovset Ryan Oden+0.1
3011-19CHATCHATAttack errMady Yaden+0.2
3111-20CHATBELLAR×4Attack errGracie Rose+0.2
3211-21BELLARBELLAR×4AceBELLAR serveraced Ryan Oden+0.1
3311-22BELLARBELLAR×4KillMaddie Haganset Maddie Carnes+0.0
3411-23BELLARBELLAR×4AceBELLAR serveraced Gracie Rose+0.0
3512-23BELLARCHATServe errBELLAR server+0.0
3612-24CHATBELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+0.0
3712-25BELLARBELLARKillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+0.0
Set 4
10-1CHATBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.6
21-1BELLARCHATAttack errMady Yadenblk Bailey Burgess, Jordin Glass+1.7
32-1CHATCHATAceCHAT serveraced Mady Yaden+2.3
42-2CHATBELLARAttack errJordin Glass+1.8
52-3BELLARBELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+2.2
63-3BELLARCHATKillBailey Burgessset Ashley Reynolds+1.8
73-4CHATBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+1.8
83-5BELLARBELLARAttack errDelaney Wingenbachblk Erika Smith, Maddie Hagan+2.1
94-5BELLARCHATKillKynli Kirkendollset Ashley Reynolds+1.7
104-6CHATBELLARKillMaddie Haganset Maddie Carnes+1.7
115-6BELLARCHATKillKynli Kirkendollset Ashley Reynolds+1.7
125-7CHATBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+1.7
135-8BELLARBELLARAceBELLAR serveraced Ryan Oden+2.0
146-8BELLARCHATServe errBELLAR server+1.6
156-9CHATBELLARKillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+1.6
167-9BELLARCHAT×4KillElena Vukmanovset Ashley Reynolds+1.6
178-9CHATCHAT×4Attack errMady Yadenblk Bailey Burgess, Jordin Glass+2.3
189-9CHATCHAT×4KillJordin Glassset Ashley Reynolds+2.7
1910-9CHATCHAT×4Attack errMary Herman+3.0
2010-10CHATBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+2.3
2111-10BELLARCHATServe errBELLAR server+2.5
2211-11CHATBELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+2.3
2312-11BELLARCHATServe errBELLAR server+2.6
2412-12CHATBELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+2.4
2512-13BELLARBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Mary Herman+3.0
2613-13BELLARCHAT×4Serve errBELLAR server+2.5
2714-13CHATCHAT×4AceCHAT serveraced Natalie Bland+3.5
2815-13CHATCHAT×4KillAshley Reynoldsset Kynli Kirkendoll+3.7
2916-13CHATCHAT×4Attack errNatalie Bland+3.8
3016-14CHATBELLAR×5KillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+2.5
3116-15BELLARBELLAR×5Attack errDelaney Wingenbach+3.5
3216-16BELLARBELLAR×5KillErika Smithset Maddie Carnes+3.7
3316-17BELLARBELLAR×5Attack errDelaney Wingenbachblk Erika Smith, Maddie Carnes+3.7
3416-18BELLARBELLAR×5Attack errGracie Rose+3.4
3517-18BELLARCHATKillKynli Kirkendollset Ashley Reynolds+2.6
3617-19CHATBELLAR×4KillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+2.9
3717-20BELLARBELLAR×4Attack errElena Vukmanov+3.1
3817-21BELLARBELLAR×4KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+2.3
3917-22BELLARBELLAR×4Attack errKynli Kirkendoll+1.4
4018-22BELLARCHATKillElena Vukmanovset Ashley Reynolds+0.6
4118-23CHATBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.0
4219-23BELLARCHATServe errBELLAR server+0.4
4320-23CHATCHATAceCHAT serveraced Natalie Bland+1.1
4420-24CHATBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.5
4521-24BELLARCHATAttack errMady Yaden+0.5
4622-24CHATCHATAttack errMaddie Hagan+1.6
4722-25CHATBELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+2.7

Score shown after each rally, Chattanooga first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.