FinalWed, Sep 16, 2026

AwayMVC

0:3

HomeBIG-TEN

Iowa def. Drake 3–0

(25-21, 25-21, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
DRAKE	21	21	17	0
IOWA	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

IOWA above 50 · DRAKE below

Biggest swing: 1.9% to Drake — set 1, DRAKE 9-6 IOWA. Kill by Caroline Smith (set by Carolyn Maser). IOWA win probability 85% → 83%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

DRAKE 11.2%88.8% IOWA

Drake wins

3-0

1.5%

3-1

3.5%

3-2

6.2%

Iowa wins

3-0

42.4%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.7%

DRAKE break %: 38.3% vs this opp
IOWA break %: 47.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Caroline SmithKill+1.9%
Kill by Caroline Smith (set by Carolyn Maser)
Set 1 · DRAKE 9-6 IOWA · DRAKE 15% → 17%
02
Ksenija TomicKill+1.8%
Kill by Ksenija Tomic (set by Jenna Meitzler)
Set 1 · DRAKE 13-14 IOWA · IOWA 87% → 89%
03
Caroline SmithKill+1.8%
Kill by Caroline Smith (set by Katie Quick)
Set 1 · DRAKE 7-4 IOWA · DRAKE 15% → 16%
04
Jenna MeitzlerKill+1.7%
Kill by Jenna Meitzler (set by Jaimie Marquardt)
Set 1 · DRAKE 11-11 IOWA · IOWA 85% → 87%
05
IOWA serverAce+1.7%
Iowa ace on Caroline Smith
Set 1 · DRAKE 14-16 IOWA · IOWA 89% → 90%
06
IOWA serverAce+1.6%
Iowa ace on Matthea Dalton
Set 1 · DRAKE 9-8 IOWA · IOWA 84% → 86%
07
DRAKE serverAce+1.6%
Drake ace on Marichka Hoshylyk
Set 1 · DRAKE 6-4 IOWA · DRAKE 13% → 15%
08
Lisa MelencianoKill+1.6%
Kill by Lisa Melenciano (set by Katie Quick)
Set 1 · DRAKE 3-0 IOWA · DRAKE 14% → 16%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Drakeaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
13Lisa MelencianoOH	3	11	4	20	.350	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
5Caroline SmithOH	3	9	4	20	.250	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	9
6Bliss BeckMB	3	5	1	8	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	6
4Aniyah DavisOH	3	2	2	9	.000	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	4
16Matthea DaltonOH	3	2	1	4	.250	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	2
2Katie QuickS	3	0	0	1	.000	21	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	1
3Jasmine DulanL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	1	0	11	0	0	0	0	1
11Carolyn MaserS	3	0	0	1	.000	11	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
1Bella FariaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
12Shay McMillenOH	2	4	2	9	.222	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	5
18Isabelle KremerOH	2	3	3	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
23Kamryn BehrnsOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24Finley SchelhaasL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	17	83	.229	35	4	4	24	8	1	4	3	59

Iowahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
6Hallie SteponaitisOH	3	11	3	24	.333	0	1	0	2	0	2	1	13
12Hannah WhittingstallMB	3	9	1	13	.615	0	1	0	1	0	5	2.5	12.5
19Liv MogridgeMB	3	9	2	17	.412	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	10
11Jenna MeitzlerS	3	4	0	8	.500	34	2	2	2	0	3	1.5	7.5
23Ksenija TomicOH	3	5	4	15	.067	0	0	1	3	1	4	2	7
22Rosa VestyMB	3	5	1	10	.400	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	6
0Allison BerentDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	1
2Henlee MoszkowiczL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	0	8	1	0	0	1
13Jaimie MarquardtL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	1	2	0	0	0	1
21Marichka HoshylykOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	1
1Peyton YoungMB	1	2	1	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team totals		45	12	90	.367	40	8	7	23	4	18	9	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 DRAKE · IOWA 4

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 4 DRAKEIOWA 3

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 2 DRAKEIOWA 4

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 DRAKEIOWA 3

Bars above the line = Iowa leads, below = Drake leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Drake

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%8/15	43%6/14
2	53%8/15	20%2/10
3	58%7/12	38%5/13
4	60%6/10	22%2/9
5	60%6/10	0%0/6
6	55%6/11	33%3/9
All	56%41/73	30%18/61

Iowa

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	56%9/16	36%4/11
2	67%8/12	56%10/18
3	73%8/11	38%5/13
4	86%6/7	40%4/10
5	86%6/7	33%3/9
6	75%6/8	50%6/12
All	70%43/61	44%32/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

134 rallies

Rally log

#	DRAKE-IOWA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Attack err	Ksenija Tomic	blk Aniyah Davis	+1.3
2	2-0	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Ksenija Tomic	+1.4
3	3-0	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+1.6
4	3-1	DRAKE	IOWA×3	Kill	Hallie Steponaitis	set Jenna Meitzler	+1.0
5	3-2	IOWA	IOWA×3	Kill	Liv Mogridge	set Jenna Meitzler	+1.4
6	3-3	IOWA	IOWA×3	Kill	Liv Mogridge	set Jenna Meitzler	+1.3
7	4-3	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+1.1
8	4-4	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Hallie Steponaitis	set Jenna Meitzler	+1.0
9	5-4	IOWA	DRAKE×3	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+1.1
10	6-4	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Marichka Hoshylyk	+1.6
11	7-4	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+1.8
12	7-5	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Liv Mogridge	set Jenna Meitzler	+1.1
13	7-6	IOWA	IOWA	Kill	Hannah Whittingstall		+1.5
14	8-6	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+1.3
15	9-6	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Carolyn Maser	+1.9
16	9-7	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Hannah Whittingstall	set Jenna Meitzler	+1.2
17	9-8	IOWA	IOWA	Ace	IOWA server	aced Matthea Dalton	+1.6
18	10-8	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Carolyn Maser	+1.4
19	10-9	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Hannah Whittingstall	set Jenna Meitzler	+1.2
20	11-9	IOWA	DRAKE	Serve err	IOWA server		+1.5
21	11-10	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Hannah Whittingstall	set Jenna Meitzler	+1.3
22	11-11	IOWA	IOWA	Kill	Jenna Meitzler	set Jaimie Marquardt	+1.7
23	12-11	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Matthea Dalton	set Carolyn Maser	+1.5
24	12-12	DRAKE	IOWA	Serve err	DRAKE server		+1.3
25	13-12	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+1.5
26	13-13	DRAKE	IOWA	Serve err	DRAKE server		+1.4
27	13-14	IOWA	IOWA	Kill	Ksenija Tomic	set Jenna Meitzler	+1.8
28	14-14	IOWA	DRAKE	Serve err	IOWA server		+1.4
29	14-15	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Liv Mogridge	set Jenna Meitzler	+1.4
30	14-16	IOWA	IOWA	Ace	IOWA server	aced Caroline Smith	+1.7
31	15-16	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+1.3
32	15-17	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Rosa Vesty	set Jenna Meitzler	+1.3
33	15-18	IOWA	IOWA	Kill	Hannah Whittingstall	set Jenna Meitzler	+1.4
34	16-18	IOWA	DRAKE	Attack err	Hannah Whittingstall		+1.0
35	16-19	DRAKE	IOWA×3	Kill	Hannah Whittingstall	set Jenna Meitzler	+1.1
36	16-20	IOWA	IOWA×3	Kill	Jenna Meitzler		+1.1
37	16-21	IOWA	IOWA×3	Kill	Hallie Steponaitis	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.7
38	17-21	IOWA	DRAKE	Serve err	IOWA server		+0.3
39	17-22	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Hallie Steponaitis	set Henlee Moszkowicz	+0.5
40	17-23	IOWA	IOWA	Attack err	Matthea Dalton		+0.3
41	18-23	IOWA	DRAKE×4	Attack err	Hallie Steponaitis		+0.1
42	19-23	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Aniyah Davis	set Katie Quick	+0.2
43	20-23	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Matthea Dalton	set Katie Quick	+0.5
44	21-23	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+1.1
45	21-24	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Hallie Steponaitis	set Jenna Meitzler	+1.4
46	21-25	IOWA	IOWA	Ace	IOWA server	aced Matthea Dalton	+0.6
Set 2
1	1-0	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.7
2	2-0	DRAKE	DRAKE	Attack err	Liv Mogridge		+1.0
3	2-1	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Liv Mogridge	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.7
4	2-2	IOWA	IOWA	Ace	IOWA server	aced Shay McMillen	+0.9
5	3-2	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.7
6	4-2	DRAKE	DRAKE	Attack err	Liv Mogridge	blk Bliss Beck, Lisa Melenciano	+1.0
7	4-3	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Rosa Vesty	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.7
8	5-3	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.8
9	5-4	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Ksenija Tomic	set Rosa Vesty	+0.7
10	6-4	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+0.9
11	6-5	DRAKE	IOWA	Serve err	DRAKE server		+0.7
12	7-5	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Isabelle Kremer	set Carolyn Maser	+0.9
13	8-5	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Isabelle Kremer	set Carolyn Maser	+1.2
14	8-6	DRAKE	IOWA×3	Kill	Hallie Steponaitis	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.8
15	8-7	IOWA	IOWA×3	Kill	Hallie Steponaitis	set Jenna Meitzler	+1.1
16	8-8	IOWA	IOWA×3	Ace	IOWA server	aced Caroline Smith	+1.1
17	9-8	IOWA	DRAKE	Attack err	Hallie Steponaitis		+0.9
18	9-9	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Liv Mogridge	set Henlee Moszkowicz	+0.8
19	10-9	IOWA	DRAKE	Serve err	IOWA server		+0.9
20	10-10	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Rosa Vesty	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.8
21	11-10	IOWA	DRAKE	Serve err	IOWA server		+1.0
22	12-10	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Katie Quick	+1.4
23	12-11	DRAKE	IOWA×3	Kill	Liv Mogridge	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.9
24	12-12	IOWA	IOWA×3	Attack err	Caroline Smith	blk Rosa Vesty, Hannah Whittingstall	+1.2
25	12-13	IOWA	IOWA×3	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano	blk Ksenija Tomic, Hannah Whittingstall	+1.2
26	13-13	IOWA	DRAKE	Attack err	Rosa Vesty		+0.9
27	14-13	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Carolyn Maser	+1.4
28	14-14	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Hannah Whittingstall	set Jenna Meitzler	+1.0
29	14-15	IOWA	IOWA	Kill	Hannah Whittingstall		+1.3
30	15-15	IOWA	DRAKE	Serve err	IOWA server		+1.0
31	15-16	DRAKE	IOWA	Attack err	Isabelle Kremer	blk Hannah Whittingstall	+1.0
32	16-16	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+1.1
33	16-17	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Jenna Meitzler		+1.1
34	17-17	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Carolyn Maser	+1.2
35	17-18	DRAKE	IOWA	Attack err	Shay McMillen	blk Hallie Steponaitis, Jenna Meitzler	+1.2
36	17-19	IOWA	IOWA	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano		+1.4
37	18-19	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Katie Quick	+1.0
38	18-20	DRAKE	IOWA×4	Attack err	Caroline Smith		+1.1
39	18-21	IOWA	IOWA×4	Ace	IOWA server	aced Finley Schelhaas	+1.2
40	18-22	IOWA	IOWA×4	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano	blk Liv Mogridge, Ksenija Tomic	+0.7
41	18-23	IOWA	IOWA×4	Kill	Ksenija Tomic	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.4
42	19-23	IOWA	DRAKE	Attack err	Ksenija Tomic		+0.1
43	20-23	DRAKE	DRAKE	Attack err	Ksenija Tomic		+0.3
44	20-24	DRAKE	IOWA	Bad set	Caroline Smith		+0.5
45	21-24	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Katie Quick	+0.2
46	21-25	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Rosa Vesty	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.3
Set 3
1	0-1	DRAKE	IOWA×3	Kill	Liv Mogridge	set Ksenija Tomic	+0.3
2	0-2	IOWA	IOWA×3	Ace	IOWA server	aced Shay McMillen	+0.3
3	0-3	IOWA	IOWA×3	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano		+0.3
4	1-3	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Jasmine Dulan	+0.2
5	2-3	DRAKE	DRAKE	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Henlee Moszkowicz	+0.3
6	2-4	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Liv Mogridge	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.3
7	3-4	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Rosa Vesty	+0.3
8	3-5	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Rosa Vesty	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.3
9	4-5	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+0.3
10	4-6	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Ksenija Tomic	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.3
11	5-6	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+0.3
12	5-7	DRAKE	IOWA	Attack err	Bliss Beck	blk Jenna Meitzler, Hannah Whittingstall	+0.3
13	5-8	IOWA	IOWA	Ace	IOWA server	aced Shay McMillen	+0.3
14	6-8	IOWA	DRAKE×3	Kill	Isabelle Kremer	set Caroline Smith	+0.2
15	7-8	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Team	+0.4
16	8-8	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Attack err	Ksenija Tomic		+0.5
17	8-9	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Hallie Steponaitis	set Jaimie Marquardt	+0.4
18	8-10	IOWA	IOWA	Attack err	Isabelle Kremer	blk Liv Mogridge, Hallie Steponaitis	+0.4
19	9-10	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Carolyn Maser	+0.3
20	9-11	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Hallie Steponaitis	set Henlee Moszkowicz	+0.3
21	9-12	IOWA	IOWA	Attack err	Shay McMillen	blk Ksenija Tomic, Rosa Vesty	+0.4
22	10-12	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.3
23	10-13	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Hallie Steponaitis	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.3
24	10-14	IOWA	IOWA	Attack err	Aniyah Davis		+0.3
25	11-14	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Aniyah Davis	set Katie Quick	+0.2
26	11-15	DRAKE	IOWA	Serve err	DRAKE server		+0.2
27	11-16	IOWA	IOWA	Attack err	Caroline Smith		+0.2
28	12-16	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.1
29	12-17	DRAKE	IOWA	Attack err	Caroline Smith		+0.2
30	12-18	IOWA	IOWA	Attack err	Isabelle Kremer	blk Jenna Meitzler, Hannah Whittingstall	+0.2
31	13-18	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+0.1
32	13-19	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Jenna Meitzler		+0.1
33	13-20	IOWA	IOWA	Kill	Hallie Steponaitis	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.1
34	14-20	IOWA	DRAKE	Attack err	Hallie Steponaitis	blk Bliss Beck, Isabelle Kremer	+0.0
35	14-21	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Hannah Whittingstall	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.1
36	15-21	IOWA	DRAKE	Attack err	Peyton Young		+0.0
37	15-22	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Peyton Young	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.0
38	16-22	IOWA	DRAKE	Serve err	IOWA server		+0.0
39	16-23	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Peyton Young	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.0
40	16-24	IOWA	IOWA	Attack err	Aniyah Davis		+0.0
41	17-24	IOWA	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Bella Faria	+0.0
42	17-25	DRAKE	IOWA	Kill	Ksenija Tomic	set Jenna Meitzler	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Drake first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.