Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 8, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Nicholls def. LSU New Orleans 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Nicholls 65.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 8, 6:25 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Nicholls won at LSU New Orleans 3-1 (29-27, 25-18, 21-25, 25-20) on Thu, Oct 8, 2026. Nicholls' Amelie Shalfoon led with 15 kills, and Natalia Navarro added 19 digs.

Data through · final Oct 8

Set1234Sets
NICHST292521253
UNO271825201

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Amelie Shalfoon hit .387 on 31 swings as Nicholls edged LSU New Orleans.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Nicholls's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Nicholls at 66%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Nicholls 23–20 LSU New Orleans

    4 straight LSU New Orleans points turned a 20–23 deficit into a 24–23 lead.

    Nicholls 77% → 55%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 1 · Nicholls 26–26 LSU New Orleans

    Nicholls closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 29–27 and lead 1–0.

    Nicholls 63% → 80%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Nicholls 10–12 LSU New Orleans

    6 straight Nicholls points turned a 10–12 deficit into a 16–12 lead.

    Nicholls 74% → 94%

LSU New Orleans above 50Nicholls belowMax swing 9.6%

NichollsLSU New Orleans

Sideout %
Nicholls 60.4·LSU New Orleans 54.5
Break %
Nicholls 45.5·LSU New Orleans 39.6
Hitting
Nicholls .240·LSU New Orleans .174
Longest run
Nicholls 6·LSU New Orleans 5

Kera Arrington
5 kills on .063, 5.5 points; 3 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

LSU New Orleans above 50 · Nicholls below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.6% UNOrally 190 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.6% to LSU New Orleans — set 1, NICHST 23-24 UNO. Kill by Nyakuak Lual (set by Defne Eciroglu). UNO win probability 35% → 45%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NICHST 59.0%41.0% UNO

Nicholls wins

3-0
16.7%
3-1
22.5%
3-2
19.8%

LSU New Orleans wins

3-0
9.1%
3-1
15.0%
3-2
16.9%
NICHST break %
44.2% vs this opp
UNO break %
42.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Nyakuak LualKill+9.6%

    Kill by Nyakuak Lual (set by Defne Eciroglu)

    Set 1 · NICHST 23-24 UNO · UNO 35% → 45%

  2. 02

    Kill by Kera Arrington (set by Isabella Padilla)

    Set 1 · NICHST 28-27 UNO · NICHST 63% → 72%

  3. 03

    Kill by Kera Arrington (set by Isabella Padilla)

    Set 1 · NICHST 29-27 UNO · NICHST 72% → 80%

  4. 04

    Kill by Amelie Shalfoon (set by Isabella Padilla)

    Set 1 · NICHST 24-24 UNO · NICHST 55% → 63%

  5. 05
    Armie HallKill+7.6%

    Kill by Armie Hall (set by Defne Eciroglu)

    Set 1 · NICHST 24-25 UNO · UNO 37% → 45%

  6. 06
    Ava FrermanAttack error+7.6%

    Attack error by Ava Frerman

    Set 1 · NICHST 25-25 UNO · NICHST 55% → 63%

  7. 07
    Ryan WilliamsKill+7.6%

    Kill by Ryan Williams (set by Vladana Ristic)

    Set 1 · NICHST 25-26 UNO · UNO 37% → 45%

  8. 08
    Maya SchirmerKill+7.6%

    Kill by Maya Schirmer (set by Isabella Padilla)

    Set 1 · NICHST 26-26 UNO · NICHST 55% → 63%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415331.38700020111.516.5
410843.047023131010.512.5
4708.87500010031.58.5
45115.267020200218
4000–010420001
4012-.50028011100000
49120.4000003002110
4002.0004211910002
4001.0001912500001
35416.06300021010.55.5
3318.250100200003
Team totals5419146.24052876481106100
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415443.2560003002116
4539.222002000427
35513.000000000005
27517.11800022010.57.5
21011.0001301400001
2002.000000100000
48836.00023193010.511.5
49225.2800000002110
4000–3311000003
41011.00016121300002
4001.0006001010000
4000–101610000
3103.333010101224
2000–1001500000
1204.500000000002
Team totals5427155.1745189648112790

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Nicholls vs LSU New Orleans

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 NICHST · UNO 5

Set 1

29-27

Longest run 4 NICHSTUNO 4

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 3 NICHSTUNO 3

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 3 NICHSTUNO 5

Set 4

25-20

Longest run 6 NICHSTUNO 4

Bars above the line = LSU New Orleans leads, below = Nicholls leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Nicholls

SlotSideout %Break %
1
61%11/18
44%8/18
2
64%9/14
50%9/18
3
56%9/16
50%9/18
4
100%9/9
36%5/14
5
56%9/16
47%8/17
6
44%8/18
43%6/14
All
60%55/91
45%45/99

LSU New Orleans

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%11/20
57%12/21
2
60%9/15
35%6/17
3
53%9/17
44%7/16
4
64%9/14
10%1/10
5
47%8/17
40%6/15
6
50%8/16
33%4/12
All
55%54/99
40%36/91

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

190 rallies

#NICHST-UNOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1UNOUNOAttack errHarper Holden+2.3
20-2UNOUNOAceLSU New Orleans aced Lizzie Kraft+2.4
31-2UNONICHSTKillMadison Smithset Isabella Padilla+1.8
41-3NICHSTUNOKillArmie Hallset Defne Eciroglu+1.9
52-3UNONICHSTKillAmelie Shalfoonset Isabella Padilla+1.8
63-3NICHSTNICHSTAttack errRyan Williams+2.4
73-4NICHSTUNO×4KillNyakuak Lualset Defne Eciroglu+1.9
83-5UNOUNO×4BlockedMadison Smithblk Nyakuak Lual, Ryan Williams+2.5
93-6UNOUNO×4AceLSU New Orleans +2.5
103-7UNOUNO×4Attack errMadison Smith+2.5
114-7UNONICHSTBad setMariana Franco+1.7
124-8NICHSTUNOKillRyan Williamsset Mariana Franco+2.0
135-8UNONICHSTKillMadison Smithset Jenna Cicherski+1.7
145-9NICHSTUNOKillNyakuak Lualset Mariana Franco+2.0
156-9UNONICHSTServe errLSU New Orleans +1.7
166-10NICHSTUNOKillElani Ratchkovskaset Mariana Franco+2.1
177-10UNONICHSTServe errLSU New Orleans +1.8
187-11NICHSTUNOKillAva Frermanset Defne Eciroglu+2.1
197-12UNOUNOKillRyan Williamsset Defne Eciroglu+2.4
208-12UNONICHSTKillMadison Smithset Isabella Padilla+1.5
219-12NICHSTNICHSTKillAmelie Shalfoonset Isabella Padilla+2.3
229-13NICHSTUNOKillRyan Williamsset Defne Eciroglu+2.2
2310-13UNONICHST×3KillAmelie Shalfoonset Isabella Padilla+1.8
2411-13NICHSTNICHST×3KillMadison Smithset Jenna Cicherski+2.7
2512-13NICHSTNICHST×3Attack errRyan Williams+3.0
2612-14NICHSTUNOKillArmie Hallset Defne Eciroglu+2.7
2713-14UNONICHSTServe errLSU New Orleans +2.4
2813-15NICHSTUNOKillRyan Williamsset Mariana Franco+2.8
2914-15UNONICHSTKillMaya Schirmerset Jenna Cicherski+2.5
3015-15NICHSTNICHSTBlockedNyakuak Lualblk Harper Holden, Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie+3.5
3115-16NICHSTUNOKillNyakuak Lualset Vladana Ristic+3.0
3216-16UNONICHSTServe errLSU New Orleans +2.9
3317-16NICHSTNICHSTKillHarper Holden+3.8
3417-17NICHSTUNOKillAva Frermanset Vladana Ristic+3.0
3517-18UNOUNOKillAva Frermanset Peyton Cole+4.3
3618-18UNONICHSTAttack errAva Frerman+3.2
3719-18NICHSTNICHSTKillHarper Holdenset Isabella Padilla+4.3
3819-19NICHSTUNOKillArmie Hallset Vladana Ristic+3.4
3919-20UNOUNOAttack errMadison Smith+5.0
4020-20UNONICHST×4Serve errLSU New Orleans +3.8
4121-20NICHSTNICHST×4KillAmelie Shalfoonset Isabella Padilla+5.2
4222-20NICHSTNICHST×4AceNichollsaced Ava Frerman+4.9
4323-20NICHSTNICHST×4AceNichollsaced Ryan Williams+3.8
4423-21NICHSTUNO×4KillRyan Williamsset Defne Eciroglu+1.8
4523-22UNOUNO×4Attack errAmelie Shalfoon+4.1
4623-23UNOUNO×4AceLSU New Orleans aced Lizzie Kraft+6.9
4723-24UNOUNO×4KillNyakuak Lualset Defne Eciroglu+9.6
4824-24UNONICHSTKillAmelie Shalfoonset Isabella Padilla+7.6
4924-25NICHSTUNOKillArmie Hallset Defne Eciroglu+7.6
5025-25UNONICHSTAttack errAva Frerman+7.6
5125-26NICHSTUNOKillRyan Williamsset Vladana Ristic+7.6
5226-26UNONICHSTKillMaya Schirmerset Isabella Padilla+7.6
5326-27NICHSTUNOKillElani Ratchkovskaset Mariana Franco+7.6
5427-27UNONICHST×3KillKera Arringtonset Tierney Terrell+7.6
5528-27NICHSTNICHST×3KillKera Arringtonset Isabella Padilla+9.1
5629-27NICHSTNICHST×3KillKera Arringtonset Isabella Padilla+8.5
Set 2
10-1NICHSTUNO×3KillArmie Hallset Defne Eciroglu+1.6
20-2UNOUNO×3BlockedMadison Smithblk Nyakuak Lual, Armie Hall+2.0
30-3UNOUNO×3AceLSU New Orleans aced Natalia Navarro+2.1
41-3UNONICHSTServe errLSU New Orleans +1.5
51-4NICHSTUNOKillDefne Ecirogluset Ava Frerman+1.7
62-4UNONICHSTKillAmelie Shalfoonset Isabella Padilla+1.5
73-4NICHSTNICHSTAttack errRyan Williams+2.0
83-5NICHSTUNOKillRyan Williamsset Mariana Franco+1.7
93-6UNOUNOKillElani Ratchkovskaset Peyton Cole+2.2
104-6UNONICHSTAttack errNyakuak Lual+1.6
114-7NICHSTUNOServe errNicholls+1.8
125-7UNONICHST×3KillMaya Schirmerset Jenna Cicherski+1.6
136-7NICHSTNICHST×3AceNichollsaced Mia Lopez+2.2
147-7NICHSTNICHST×3Attack errAva Frerman+2.2
157-8NICHSTUNOAttack errKera Arrington+1.9
168-8UNONICHSTKillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Natalia Navarro+1.8
179-8NICHSTNICHSTAttack errAva Frerman+2.3
189-9NICHSTUNO×3KillArmie Hallset Vladana Ristic+1.8
199-10UNOUNO×3KillArmie Hallset Defne Eciroglu+2.5
209-11UNOUNO×3Bad setIsabella Padilla+2.6
2110-11UNONICHSTKillKera Arringtonset Isabella Padilla+1.9
2210-12NICHSTUNOKillArmie Hallset Defne Eciroglu+2.1
2311-12UNONICHSTKillMadison Smithset Isabella Padilla+1.9
2412-12NICHSTNICHSTAttack errRyan Williams+2.6
2512-13NICHSTUNOKillArmie Hallset Defne Eciroglu+2.2
2613-13UNONICHSTKillAmelie Shalfoonset Isabella Padilla+2.1
2713-14NICHSTUNOServe errNicholls+2.3
2814-14UNONICHSTKillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Jenna Cicherski+2.2
2915-14NICHSTNICHSTAceNicholls+2.9
3015-15NICHSTUNOKillElani Ratchkovskaset Ava Frerman+2.3
3116-15UNONICHSTKillKera Arringtonset Jenna Cicherski+2.4
3217-15NICHSTNICHSTAttack errAlana Pierce+2.9
3317-16NICHSTUNOKillElani Ratchkovskaset Mariana Franco+2.2
3418-16UNONICHSTKillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Jenna Cicherski+2.4
3519-16NICHSTNICHSTBlockedArmie Hallblk Amelie Shalfoon+2.7
3619-17NICHSTUNOServe errNicholls+1.8
3720-17UNONICHST×3KillHarper Holdenset Natalia Navarro+2.2
3821-17NICHSTNICHST×3Attack errRyan Williams+2.1
3922-17NICHSTNICHST×3AceNichollsaced Ryan Williams+1.3
4022-18NICHSTUNOKillArmie Hallset Defne Eciroglu+0.6
4123-18UNONICHST×3KillMadison Smithset Natalia Navarro+0.9
4224-18NICHSTNICHST×3KillAmelie Shalfoonset Isabella Padilla+0.5
4325-18NICHSTNICHST×3BlockedArmie Hallblk Maya Schirmer, Madison Smith+0.1
Set 3
10-1UNOUNOKillArmie Hallset Rylie Hallman+1.2
21-1UNONICHST×3KillMadison Smithset Isabella Padilla+0.9
32-1NICHSTNICHST×3Attack errLaura Piva+1.1
43-1NICHSTNICHST×3Attack errArmie Hall+1.1
53-2NICHSTUNOKillLaura Pivaset Rylie Hallman+0.8
64-2UNONICHSTKillAmelie Shalfoonset Isabella Padilla+0.9
74-3NICHSTUNOServe errNicholls+0.9
84-4UNOUNOBlockedMadison Smithblk Nyakuak Lual, Elani Ratchkovska+1.2
95-4UNONICHST×3KillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Jenna Cicherski+0.9
106-4NICHSTNICHST×3Attack errNyakuak Lual+1.2
117-4NICHSTNICHST×3KillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Natalia Navarro+1.1
127-5NICHSTUNOBlockedKera Arringtonblk Nyakuak Lual, Elani Ratchkovska+0.8
138-5UNONICHSTBlockedElani Ratchkovskablk Maya Schirmer, Kera Arrington+0.9
148-6NICHSTUNO×3KillElani Ratchkovskaset Mariana Franco+0.8
158-7UNOUNO×3BlockedZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieblk Derin Nur Aydin, Ava Frerman+1.2
168-8UNOUNO×3KillAva Frermanset Mariana Franco+1.3
179-8UNONICHSTKillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Jenna Cicherski+1.1
189-9NICHSTUNOKillMariana Francoset Vladana Ristic+1.1
199-10UNOUNOAttack errKera Arrington+1.5
2010-10UNONICHST×3KillHarper Holdenset Isabella Padilla+1.1
2111-10NICHSTNICHST×3Attack errArmie Hall+1.4
2212-10NICHSTNICHST×3KillAmelie Shalfoonset Isabella Padilla+1.4
2312-11NICHSTUNOKillAva Frermanset Rylie Hallman+1.1
2413-11UNONICHSTAttack errLaura Piva+1.1
2513-12NICHSTUNOKillArmie Hallset Rylie Hallman+1.1
2613-13UNOUNOAceLSU New Orleans +1.6
2714-13UNONICHSTKillAmelie Shalfoonset Isabella Padilla+1.3
2814-14NICHSTUNO×3Attack errMadison Smith+1.3
2914-15UNOUNO×3KillLaura Pivaset Mariana Franco+1.8
3014-16UNOUNO×3KillElani Ratchkovskaset Mariana Franco+1.9
3115-16UNONICHSTServe errLSU New Orleans +1.3
3215-17NICHSTUNOKillLaura Pivaset Mariana Franco+1.5
3316-17UNONICHSTServe errLSU New Orleans +1.4
3417-17NICHSTNICHSTAttack errAva Frerman+2.0
3517-18NICHSTUNO×5Attack errKera Arrington+1.7
3617-19UNOUNO×5KillElani Ratchkovskaset Mariana Franco+2.2
3717-20UNOUNO×5KillAva Frermanset Mariana Franco+2.1
3817-21UNOUNO×5AceLSU New Orleans aced Kera Arrington+1.7
3917-22UNOUNO×5KillDerin Nur Aydinset Mariana Franco+1.1
4018-22UNONICHSTKillMadison Smithset Jenna Cicherski+0.5
4118-23NICHSTUNOKillAva Frermanset Mia Lopez+0.8
4218-24UNOUNOAttack errMadison Smith+0.4
4319-24UNONICHST×3KillAmelie Shalfoonset Isabella Padilla+0.1
4420-24NICHSTNICHST×3KillMadison Smith+0.2
4521-24NICHSTNICHST×3Attack errAva Frerman+0.5
4621-25NICHSTUNOAttack errIsabella Padilla+0.9
Set 4
10-1NICHSTUNOKillLaura Pivaset Rylie Hallman+2.2
21-1UNONICHSTKillHarper Holdenset Isabella Padilla+2.1
31-2NICHSTUNOKillNyakuak Lualset Rylie Hallman+2.2
41-3UNOUNOAttack errAmelie Shalfoon+2.9
52-3UNONICHSTKillMaya Schirmerset Isabella Padilla+2.2
62-4NICHSTUNOKillElani Ratchkovskaset Mariana Franco+2.4
73-4UNONICHST×3Attack errAva Frerman+2.2
84-4NICHSTNICHST×3KillMaya Schirmerset Jenna Cicherski+2.9
95-4NICHSTNICHST×3AceNichollsaced Vladana Ristic+2.9
105-5NICHSTUNOServe errNicholls+2.3
116-5UNONICHSTKillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Jenna Cicherski+2.3
126-6NICHSTUNOKillAva Frermanset Mariana Franco+2.4
136-7UNOUNOKillArmie Hallset Peyton Cole+3.2
147-7UNONICHSTServe errLSU New Orleans +2.5
157-8NICHSTUNO×3KillArmie Hallset Rylie Hallman+2.6
167-9UNOUNO×3Attack errMadison Smith+3.4
177-10UNOUNO×3BlockedTierney Terrellblk Armie Hall, Derin Nur Aydin+3.4
188-10UNONICHSTKillTierney Terrellset Isabella Padilla+2.4
199-10NICHSTNICHSTBlockedLaura Pivablk Harper Holden, Amelie Shalfoon+3.3
209-11NICHSTUNOKillArmie Hallset Rylie Hallman+2.9
2110-11UNONICHSTKillAmelie Shalfoonset Isabella Padilla+2.7
2210-12NICHSTUNOKillLaura Pivaset Rylie Hallman+3.0
2311-12UNONICHST×6Attack errElani Ratchkovska+2.7
2412-12NICHSTNICHST×6KillMaya Schirmerset Jenna Cicherski+3.7
2513-12NICHSTNICHST×6AceNichollsaced Ava Frerman+3.7
2614-12NICHSTNICHST×6BlockedLaura Pivablk Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie, Maya Schirmer+3.6
2715-12NICHSTNICHST×6Attack errLaura Piva+3.2
2816-12NICHSTNICHST×6KillMadison Smithset Jenna Cicherski+2.7
2916-13NICHSTUNOKillAnia Andersonset Vladana Ristic+1.8
3017-13UNONICHSTKillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Jenna Cicherski+2.2
3117-14NICHSTUNOServe errNicholls+1.8
3218-14UNONICHST×4KillMaya Schirmerset Jenna Cicherski+2.2
3319-14NICHSTNICHST×4KillTierney Terrellset Jenna Cicherski+2.1
3420-14NICHSTNICHST×4AceNichollsaced Ava Frerman+1.4
3521-14NICHSTNICHST×4KillTierney Terrellset Jenna Cicherski+0.8
3621-15NICHSTUNOServe errNicholls+0.3
3722-15UNONICHSTKillZahahrah Edwards-Wyllieset Jenna Cicherski+0.5
3823-15NICHSTNICHSTAttack errAva Frerman+0.3
3923-16NICHSTUNO×4Bad setIsabella Padilla+0.1
4023-17UNOUNO×4AceLSU New Orleans +0.2
4123-18UNOUNO×4Attack errAmelie Shalfoon+0.3
4223-19UNOUNO×4AceLSU New Orleans aced Madison Smith+0.7
4324-19UNONICHSTKillAmelie Shalfoonset Isabella Padilla+1.0
4424-20NICHSTUNOKillAnia Andersonset Rylie Hallman+0.3
4525-20UNONICHSTKillAmelie Shalfoonset Isabella Padilla+0.6

Score shown after each rally, Nicholls first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).