FinalSat, Oct 10, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Ball St. def. Central Mich. 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Ball St. 99.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 2:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Ball St. beat visiting Central Mich. 3-0 (25-20, 25-14, 25-14) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. Ava Smith led Ball St. with 10 kills; Central Mich.'s Taylor Cripe had a match-high 12.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set123Sets
C MICH2014140
BALLST2525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

6 aces from Mallory Pike in a Ball St. rout.

Win probability never moved more than 0.1 points on one rally; Central Mich. topped out at <1% in Set 1. Ball St. went in as RallyIQ's >99% pick.

Central Mich.Ball St.
  • Break %+24.8 pts
    30.054.8

    40 of 73 on serve vs 15 of 50, so Central Mich.'s sideout was 45.2%.

  • Hitting+.145
    .195.340

    43 kills, 9 errors vs 29 kills, 13 errors.

Ball St. above 50Central Mich. belowMax swing 0.1%

Central Mich.Ball St.

Aces
Central Mich. 2·Ball St. 13
Serve err
Central Mich. 5·Ball St. 8
Blocks
Central Mich. 3·Ball St. 32 BS · 2 BA vs 1 BS · 4 BA
Digs
Central Mich. 41·Ball St. 36

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Ball St. above 50 · Central Mich. below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100rally 123 · set 3

No single rally moved win probability by a full point: Ball St. stayed the heavy favorite throughout.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

C MICH 0.2%99.8% BALLST

Central Mich. wins

3-0
0.0%
3-1
0.0%
3-2
0.1%

Ball St. wins

3-0
85.4%
3-1
13.2%
3-2
1.3%
C MICH break %
31.4% vs this opp
BALLST break %
53.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
312631.19401014200013
35216.188012230006
3509.55600100010.55.5
3011-1.0001301600000
2126-.16700010111.52.5
2015-.200000000000
3307.429000000003
3001.0001000100000
3000–300500000
3000–2011270000
1213.333000000002
1103.333000001012
Team totals291382.1952825411322348
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
310126.34603020010.513.5
3003.000160310006
35113.308000100005
25111.364001001227
24211.182002300004
11011.0001011200002
3102.500101600001
3000–2031300000
27212.417000000007
2408.500030000007
2011-1.000180030010.50.5
2000–100200000
14110.300000010004
12021.000000000002
1000–100100000
Team totals439100.3403413836214375

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 C MICH · BALLST 8

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 2 C MICHBALLST 3

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 3 C MICHBALLST 5

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 3 C MICHBALLST 8

Bars above the line = Ball St. leads, below = Central Mich. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Central Mich.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
100%3/3
40%2/5
2
50%3/6
25%1/4
3
75%3/4
25%1/4
4
50%2/4
0%0/3
5
50%2/4
0%0/2
6
67%2/3
33%1/3
All
63%15/24
24%5/21

Ball St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%3/5
33%1/3
2
75%3/4
0%0/3
3
75%3/4
50%3/6
4
100%3/3
25%1/4
5
100%2/2
50%2/4
6
67%2/3
50%2/4
All
76%16/21
38%9/24

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

123 rallies

#C MICH-BALLSTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passer
Set 1
11-0C MICHC MICHAttack errCamryn Wise
21-1C MICHBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lindsey Green
32-1BALLSTC MICHServe errBall St.
42-2C MICHBALLSTKillGwen Crullset Lindsey Green
52-3BALLSTBALLSTAttack errKarla Sanchez George
63-3BALLSTC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Brytn Lyon
73-4C MICHBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lindsey Green
84-4BALLSTC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Brytn Lyon
94-5C MICHBALLSTKillGwen Crull
104-6BALLSTBALLSTAttack errTaylor Cripe
115-6BALLSTC MICHServe errBall St.
125-7C MICHBALLSTKillMerritt Sliwaset Lindsey Green
135-8BALLSTBALLSTAceBall St.aced Cheyenne Gunner
146-8BALLSTC MICHServe errBall St.
156-9C MICHBALLSTKillMerritt Sliwa
166-10BALLSTBALLSTKillCamryn Wise
177-10BALLSTC MICHAttack errTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green
187-11C MICHBALLSTServe errCentral Mich.
198-11BALLSTC MICHKillCheyenne Gunnerset Brytn Lyon
209-11C MICHC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Rainey Weidman
219-12C MICHBALLSTKillAva Smithset Sophie Ledbetter
2210-12BALLSTC MICHBlockedAva Smithblk Karla Sanchez George
2311-12C MICHC MICHAttack errGwen Crull
2411-13C MICHBALLSTBlockedKarla Sanchez Georgeblk Ava Smith, Gwen Crull
2512-13BALLSTC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Brytn Lyon
2612-14C MICHBALLSTKillMerritt Sliwaset Lindsey Green
2713-14BALLSTC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Ceci Bustamante
2813-15C MICHBALLSTKillLindsey Greenset Elizabeth Tabeling
2913-16BALLSTBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Allie Wuestenfeld
3014-16BALLSTC MICHKillCheyenne Gunnerset Audrey Hackney
3115-16C MICHC MICHAttack errMerritt Sliwa
3215-17C MICHBALLSTKillMerritt Sliwaset Lindsey Green
3316-17BALLSTC MICHKillBrenna Storzset Audrey Hackney
3417-17C MICHC MICHKillCheyenne Gunnerset Brytn Lyon
3517-18C MICHBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green
3618-18BALLSTC MICHKillKarla Sanchez Georgeset Rainey Weidman
3718-19C MICHBALLST×3Serve errCentral Mich.
3818-20BALLSTBALLST×3KillAva Smithset Lindsey Green
3918-21BALLSTBALLST×3Attack errBrytn Lyon
4019-21BALLSTC MICHServe errBall St.
4119-22C MICHBALLSTServe errCentral Mich.
4219-23BALLSTBALLSTAceBall St.aced Cheyenne Gunner
4320-23BALLSTC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Brytn Lyon
4420-24C MICHBALLSTBlockedTeyhlor Thomasblk Gwen Crull
4520-25BALLSTBALLSTAttack errCheyenne Gunner
Set 2
10-1BALLSTBALLST×3AceBall St.aced Cheyenne Gunner
20-2BALLSTBALLST×3AceBall St.aced Rainey Weidman
30-3BALLST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

41-3BALLSTC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Brytn Lyon
51-4C MICHBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Reese Axness
62-4BALLSTC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Brytn Lyon
72-5C MICHBALLST×4KillGwen Crullset Reese Axness
82-6BALLSTBALLST×4BlockedTaylor Cripeblk Reese Axness, Gwen Crull
92-7BALLSTBALLST×4KillAva Smithset Reese Axness
102-8BALLSTBALLST×4KillGwen Crull
113-8BALLSTC MICHServe errBall St.
123-9C MICHBALLSTKillGwen Crullset Reese Axness
134-9BALLSTC MICHKillCheyenne Gunnerset Audrey Hackney
145-9C MICHC MICHKillBrenna Storzset Audrey Hackney
155-10C MICHBALLSTKillMerritt Sliwa
166-10BALLSTC MICHKillLilly Mullholandset Audrey Hackney
177-10C MICHC MICHKillBrenna Storz
187-11C MICHBALLSTKillMerritt Sliwaset Reese Axness
198-11BALLSTC MICHBlockedMerritt Sliwablk Brenna Storz, Karla Sanchez George
208-12C MICHBALLST×3KillAllie Wuestenfeld
218-13BALLSTBALLST×3AceBall St.aced Rainey Weidman
228-14BALLSTBALLST×3AceBall St.aced Rainey Weidman
239-14BALLSTC MICH×3KillTaylor Cripeset Brytn Lyon
2410-14C MICHC MICH×3KillTaylor Cripeset Ceci Bustamante
2511-14C MICHC MICH×3Attack errTiffany Snook
2611-15C MICHBALLST×5KillAva Smithset Reese Axness
2711-16BALLSTBALLST×5KillLeah Pikeset Reese Axness
2811-17BALLSTBALLST×5KillAva Smithset Reese Axness
2911-18BALLSTBALLST×5KillTiffany Snookset Reese Axness
3011-19BALLSTBALLST×5Attack errTaylor Cripe
3112-19BALLSTC MICHServe errBall St.
3212-20C MICHBALLSTKillAva Smithset Sophie Ledbetter
3313-20BALLSTC MICHKillTaylor Cripe
3414-20C MICHC MICHKillLilly Mullholandset Audrey Hackney
3514-21C MICHBALLST×5KillLeah Pike
3614-22BALLSTBALLST×5KillMerritt Sliwa
3714-23BALLST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

3814-24BALLSTBALLST×5Attack errCheyenne Gunner
3914-25BALLSTBALLST×5AceBall St.aced Taylor Cripe
Set 3
10-1C MICHBALLSTKillAudrey Geerset Reese Axness
21-1BALLSTC MICHKillBrenna Storzset Brytn Lyon
32-1C MICHC MICHKillAlexis Carperset Brytn Lyon
42-2C MICHBALLSTKillAudrey Geer
52-3BALLSTBALLSTKillLeah Pike
63-3BALLSTC MICHKillTaylor Cripeset Brytn Lyon
73-4C MICHBALLSTAttack errTaylor Cripeset Audrey Hackney
84-4BALLSTC MICHKillLilly Mullholandset Audrey Hackney
95-4C MICHC MICHAceCentral Mich.aced Audrey Geer
105-5C MICHBALLST×3KillAva Smithset Reese Axness
115-6BALLSTBALLST×3Attack errTaylor Cripe
125-7BALLSTBALLST×3KillCamryn Wise
136-7BALLSTC MICHKillCheyenne Gunnerset Audrey Hackney
146-8C MICHBALLSTServe errCentral Mich.
157-8BALLSTC MICHKillBrenna Storzset Audrey Hackney
167-9C MICHBALLST×4KillLucy McCollumset Reese Axness
177-10BALLSTBALLST×4AceBall St.aced Taylor Cripe
187-11BALLSTBALLST×4KillCamryn Wiseset Reese Axness
197-12BALLSTBALLST×4KillCamryn Wise
208-12BALLSTC MICH×3KillCheyenne Gunner
219-12C MICHC MICH×3AceCentral Mich.aced Mallory Pike
2210-12C MICHC MICH×3Attack errAudrey Geer
2310-13C MICHBALLSTServe errCentral Mich.
2410-14BALLSTBALLSTKillLucy McCollumset Reese Axness
2511-14BALLSTC MICHServe errBall St.
2611-15C MICHBALLSTKillAudrey Geerset Reese Axness
2711-16BALLSTBALLSTAttack errAlexis Carper
2812-16BALLSTC MICHServe errBall St.
2912-17C MICHBALLSTKillAudrey Geer
3013-17BALLSTC MICHKillMeisha Sykesset Audrey Hackney
3114-17C MICHC MICHBlockedReese Axnessblk Meisha Sykes
3214-18C MICHBALLST×8KillLeah Pikeset Reese Axness
3314-19BALLSTBALLST×8Attack errTaylor Cripe
3414-20BALLSTBALLST×8AceBall St.aced Rainey Weidman
3514-21BALLSTBALLST×8AceBall St.aced Rainey Weidman
3614-22BALLSTBALLST×8AceBall St.aced Rainey Weidman
3714-23BALLST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

3814-24BALLSTBALLST×8KillAva Smithset Kendall Eden
3914-25BALLSTBALLST×8KillCamryn Wiseset Reese Axness

Score shown after each rally, Central Mich. first.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).