FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwaySEC

3:0

HomeAMERICAN

Mississippi St. def. Memphis 3–0

(25-7, 25-11, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MISSST	25	25	25	3
MEM	7	11	23	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MEM above 50 · MISSST below

Biggest swing: 0.8% to Mississippi St. — set 3, MISSST 25-23 MEM. Attack error by Amanda Hardt. MEM win probability 1% → 0%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MISSST 92.5%7.5% MEM

Mississippi St. wins

3-0

49.2%

3-1

31.1%

3-2

12.2%

Memphis wins

3-0

0.9%

3-1

2.2%

3-2

4.4%

MISSST break %: 50.0% vs this opp
MEM break %: 38.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Amanda HardtAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Amanda Hardt
Set 3 · MISSST 25-23 MEM · MISSST 99% → 100%
02
MISSST serverAce+0.8%
Mississippi St. ace on Caitlyn Little
Set 1 · MISSST 1-0 MEM · MISSST 92% → 93%
03
Sydney MarshallBad set+0.7%
Bad set by Sydney Marshall
Set 1 · MISSST 2-0 MEM · MISSST 93% → 94%
04
Amanda HardtAttack error+0.6%
Amanda Hardt stuffed by Bernardita Aguilar & Noella Obi
Set 1 · MISSST 3-0 MEM · MISSST 94% → 94%
05
MISSST serverAce+0.5%
Mississippi St. ace on Genesis Rodriguez
Set 1 · MISSST 4-0 MEM · MISSST 94% → 95%
06
Bernardita AguilarAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Bernardita Aguilar
Set 3 · MISSST 24-23 MEM · MEM 0% → 1%
07
Kaylee ParkerAttack error+0.4%
Kaylee Parker stuffed by Ava Anderson & Bernardita Aguilar
Set 2 · MISSST 2-0 MEM · MISSST 97% → 97%
08
MEM serverAce+0.4%
Memphis ace on Lindsey Mangelson
Set 2 · MISSST 6-4 MEM · MEM 2% → 3%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Mississippi St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
1Bernardita AguilarOH	3	13	1	20	.600	1	2	1	7	0	5	2.5	17.5
3Lindsey MangelsonOH	3	6	3	15	.200	1	6	1	7	1	3	1.5	13.5
20Noella ObiOPP	3	5	0	6	.833	0	2	1	1	0	6	3	10
10Paloma RoutaboulOH	3	5	3	19	.105	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	6
21Ava AndersonMB	3	3	1	8	.250	2	0	0	0	0	4	2	5
24Cayley HansonS	3	1	0	2	.500	23	1	1	6	0	0	0	2
4McKenna YatesDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	0	7	0	0	0	1
6Avery PowerDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Mary NealDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0
13Sydnie WallerOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	8	70	.357	31	12	4	31	2	20	10	75

Memphishome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
15Amanda HardtOH	3	6	6	25	.000	2	1	1	2	1	2	1	8
2Arianna MongareMB	3	6	1	12	.417	0	0	2	3	0	3	1.5	7.5
3Caitlyn LittleOH	3	4	6	18	-.111	1	0	0	13	3	1	0.5	4.5
7Kaylee ParkerOH	3	2	5	11	-.273	0	0	0	0	3	1	0.5	2.5
22Sydney MarshallS	3	2	3	8	-.125	20	0	0	2	0	0	0	2
14Genesis RodriguezOH	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0
16Lillian HamiltonOH	3	6	2	11	.364	0	0	1	2	0	3	1.5	7.5
9Abigail SchlueterL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
10Jordan TurnerS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
21Dawn MooreS	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Taylor HamptonL/DS	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
5Tewabech WoodsonDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team totals		26	25	89	.011	25	2	4	26	12	10	5	41

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 MISSST · MEM 3

Set 1

25-7

Longest run 8 MISSSTMEM 1

Set 2

25-11

Longest run 8 MISSSTMEM 3

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 5 MISSSTMEM 3

Bars above the line = Memphis leads, below = Mississippi St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Mississippi St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%7/7	68%13/19
2	50%6/12	68%13/19
3	57%4/7	50%4/8
4	57%4/7	0%0/4
5	80%4/5	71%10/14
6	100%4/4	60%6/10
All	69%29/42	62%46/74

Memphis

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	41%7/17	0%0/5
2	28%5/18	22%2/9
3	67%4/6	44%4/9
4	36%4/11	50%4/8
5	50%4/8	43%3/7
6	29%4/14	0%0/4
All	38%28/74	31%13/42

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

116 rallies

Rally log

#	MISSST-MEM	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MISSST	MISSST×7	Ace	MISSST server	aced Caitlyn Little	+0.8
2	2-0	MISSST	MISSST×7	Bad set	Sydney Marshall		+0.7
3	3-0	MISSST	MISSST×7	Attack err	Amanda Hardt	blk Bernardita Aguilar, Noella Obi	+0.6
4	4-0	MISSST	MISSST×7	Ace	MISSST server	aced Genesis Rodriguez	+0.5
5	5-0	MISSST	MISSST×7	Ace	MISSST server	aced Genesis Rodriguez	+0.4
6	6-0	MISSST	MISSST×7	Attack err	Amanda Hardt		+0.3
7	7-0	MISSST	MISSST×7	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
8	7-1	MISSST	MEM	Serve err	MISSST server		+0.2
9	8-1	MEM	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
10	8-2	MISSST	MEM	Serve err	MISSST server		+0.2
11	9-2	MEM	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Paloma Routaboul	+0.2
12	10-2	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Caitlyn Little		+0.2
13	10-3	MISSST	MEM	Serve err	MISSST server		+0.1
14	11-3	MEM	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.1
15	11-4	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Arianna Mongare	set Sydney Marshall	+0.1
16	12-4	MEM	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.1
17	12-5	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Lillian Hamilton	set Sydney Marshall	+0.1
18	13-5	MEM	MISSST×3	Serve err	MEM server		+0.1
19	14-5	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Amanda Hardt		+0.1
20	15-5	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Noella Obi		+0.1
21	15-6	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Amanda Hardt	set Sydney Marshall	+0.0
22	16-6	MEM	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.0
23	17-6	MISSST	MISSST	Ace	MISSST server	aced Kaylee Parker	+0.0
24	17-7	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Kaylee Parker	set Amanda Hardt	+0.0
25	18-7	MEM	MISSST×8	Attack err	Amanda Hardt	blk Bernardita Aguilar, Noella Obi	+0.0
26	19-7	MISSST	MISSST×8	Attack err	Kaylee Parker		+0.0
27	20-7	MISSST	MISSST×8	Attack err	Caitlyn Little		+0.0
28	21-7	MISSST	MISSST×8	Attack err	Sydney Marshall	blk Ava Anderson, Paloma Routaboul	+0.0
29	22-7	MISSST	MISSST×8	Attack err	Sydney Marshall		+0.0
30	23-7	MISSST	MISSST×8	Ace	MISSST server	aced Kaylee Parker	+0.0
31	24-7	MISSST	MISSST×8	Attack err	Caitlyn Little	blk Ava Anderson, Bernardita Aguilar	+0.0
32	25-7	MISSST	MISSST×8	Attack err	Kaylee Parker	blk Ava Anderson, Paloma Routaboul	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	MEM	MISSST	Attack err	Lillian Hamilton		+0.4
2	2-0	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Kaylee Parker	blk Ava Anderson, Bernardita Aguilar	+0.4
3	2-1	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Lillian Hamilton	set Sydney Marshall	+0.4
4	3-1	MEM	MISSST×3	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
5	4-1	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Cayley Hanson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.4
6	5-1	MISSST	MISSST×3	Ace	MISSST server	aced Caitlyn Little	+0.3
7	5-2	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Amanda Hardt	set Abigail Schlueter	+0.3
8	6-2	MEM	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Bernardita Aguilar	+0.3
9	6-3	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Arianna Mongare	set Sydney Marshall	+0.3
10	6-4	MEM	MEM	Ace	MEM server	aced Lindsey Mangelson	+0.4
11	7-4	MEM	MISSST×8	Kill	Ava Anderson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.3
12	8-4	MISSST	MISSST×8	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Ava Anderson	+0.4
13	9-4	MISSST	MISSST×8	Attack err	Taylor Hampton		+0.3
14	10-4	MISSST	MISSST×8	Attack err	Dawn Moore		+0.2
15	11-4	MISSST	MISSST×8	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set McKenna Yates	+0.2
16	12-4	MISSST	MISSST×8	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.1
17	13-4	MISSST	MISSST×8	Ace	MISSST server	aced Taylor Hampton	+0.1
18	14-4	MISSST	MISSST×8	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set McKenna Yates	+0.0
19	14-5	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Amanda Hardt	set Sydney Marshall	+0.0
20	14-6	MEM	MEM	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson	blk Caitlyn Little, Arianna Mongare	+0.0
21	15-6	MEM	MISSST	Serve err	MEM server		+0.1
22	16-6	MISSST	MISSST	Ace	MISSST server	aced Genesis Rodriguez	+0.0
23	16-7	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Sydney Marshall	set Amanda Hardt	+0.0
24	17-7	MEM	MISSST×6	Attack err	Kaylee Parker	blk Noella Obi, Lindsey Mangelson	+0.0
25	18-7	MISSST	MISSST×6	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.0
26	19-7	MISSST	MISSST×6	Ace	MISSST server	aced Amanda Hardt	+0.0
27	20-7	MISSST	MISSST×6	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set McKenna Yates	+0.0
28	21-7	MISSST	MISSST×6	Attack err	Caitlyn Little	blk Bernardita Aguilar, Noella Obi	+0.0
29	22-7	MISSST	MISSST×6	Ace	MISSST server	aced Tewabech Woodson	+0.0
30	22-8	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Kaylee Parker	set Sydney Marshall	+0.0
31	23-8	MEM	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.0
32	24-8	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Caitlyn Little		+0.0
33	24-9	MISSST	MEM×3	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Sydney Marshall	+0.0
34	24-10	MEM	MEM×3	Attack err	Paloma Routaboul	blk Kaylee Parker, Lillian Hamilton	+0.0
35	24-11	MEM	MEM×3	Kill	Amanda Hardt	set Sydney Marshall	+0.0
36	25-11	MEM	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Lillian Hamilton	set Sydney Marshall	+0.2
2	1-1	MEM	MISSST×5	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
3	2-1	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Lindsey Mangelson	+0.2
4	3-1	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Ava Anderson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
5	4-1	MISSST	MISSST×5	Ace	MISSST server	aced Kaylee Parker	+0.2
6	5-1	MISSST	MISSST×5	Attack err	Amanda Hardt		+0.1
7	5-2	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Lillian Hamilton	set Sydney Marshall	+0.1
8	6-2	MEM	MISSST	Kill	Ava Anderson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.1
9	7-2	MISSST	MISSST	Ace	MISSST server	aced Caitlyn Little	+0.1
10	7-3	MISSST	MEM×3	Kill	Arianna Mongare	set Sydney Marshall	+0.1
11	7-4	MEM	MEM×3	Kill	Arianna Mongare	set Caitlyn Little	+0.2
12	7-5	MEM	MEM×3	Attack err	Ava Anderson	blk Arianna Mongare, Amanda Hardt	+0.2
13	8-5	MEM	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
14	8-6	MISSST	MEM×3	Kill	Amanda Hardt	set Sydney Marshall	+0.2
15	8-7	MEM	MEM×3	Ace	MEM server	aced Mary Neal	+0.3
16	8-8	MEM	MEM×3	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Sydney Marshall	+0.3
17	9-8	MEM	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
18	10-8	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Arianna Mongare		+0.3
19	11-8	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
20	11-9	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Sydney Marshall	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
21	12-9	MEM	MISSST×3	Serve err	MEM server		+0.2
22	13-9	MISSST	MISSST×3	Attack err	Kaylee Parker	blk Lindsey Mangelson, Noella Obi	+0.2
23	14-9	MISSST	MISSST×3	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Cayley Hanson	+0.1
24	14-10	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Abigail Schlueter	+0.1
25	15-10	MEM	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.1
26	15-11	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Amanda Hardt	set Sydney Marshall	+0.1
27	16-11	MEM	MISSST	Attack err	Lillian Hamilton		+0.1
28	16-12	MISSST	MEM×3	Bad set	Cayley Hanson		+0.1
29	16-13	MEM	MEM×3	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.2
30	16-14	MEM	MEM×3	Kill	Lillian Hamilton	set Sydney Marshall	+0.3
31	17-14	MEM	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
32	17-15	MISSST	MEM	Attack err	Paloma Routaboul	blk Arianna Mongare, Lillian Hamilton	+0.2
33	17-16	MEM	MEM	Kill	Arianna Mongare	set Sydney Marshall	+0.4
34	18-16	MEM	MISSST	Serve err	MEM server		+0.3
35	18-17	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Arianna Mongare	set Sydney Marshall	+0.3
36	19-17	MEM	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Ava Anderson	+0.3
37	20-17	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Caitlyn Little		+0.4
38	20-18	MISSST	MEM	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.2
39	21-18	MEM	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.3
40	22-18	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Sydney Marshall	blk Lindsey Mangelson, Noella Obi	+0.2
41	22-19	MISSST	MEM	Serve err	MISSST server		+0.1
42	23-19	MEM	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
43	23-20	MISSST	MEM	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Sydney Marshall	+0.1
44	24-20	MEM	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Cayley Hanson	+0.2
45	24-21	MISSST	MEM×3	Kill	Lillian Hamilton	set Sydney Marshall	+0.1
46	24-22	MEM	MEM×3	Attack err	Paloma Routaboul	blk Lillian Hamilton, Amanda Hardt	+0.2
47	24-23	MEM	MEM×3	Attack err	Bernardita Aguilar		+0.5
48	25-23	MEM	MISSST	Attack err	Amanda Hardt		+0.8

Score shown after each rally, Mississippi St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.