FinalThu, Sep 17, 2026

AwaySUN-BELT

0:3

HomeAMERICAN

Memphis def. Southern Miss. 3–0

(25-19, 25-21, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
S MISS	19	21	21	0
MEM	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MEM above 50 · S MISS below

Biggest swing: 5.4% to Memphis — set 2, S MISS 21-23 MEM. Attack error by Diana Wells. MEM win probability 73% → 78%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

S MISS 54.7%45.3% MEM

Southern Miss. wins

3-0

14.6%

3-1

20.7%

3-2

19.4%

Memphis wins

3-0

10.6%

3-1

16.8%

3-2

17.9%

S MISS break %: 45.1% vs this opp
MEM break %: 44.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Diana WellsAttack error+5.4%
Attack error by Diana Wells
Set 2 · S MISS 21-23 MEM · MEM 73% → 78%
02
Caitlyn LittleKill+5.4%
Kill by Caitlyn Little (set by Sydney Marshall)
Set 2 · S MISS 19-21 MEM · MEM 70% → 76%
03
Emily DavisAttack error+5.0%
Emily Davis stuffed by Caitlyn Little & Kaylee Parker
Set 2 · S MISS 21-24 MEM · MEM 78% → 83%
04
Sadie McAdaAttack error+4.9%
Attack error by Sadie McAda
Set 2 · S MISS 18-19 MEM · MEM 65% → 70%
05
Caitlyn LittleKill+4.8%
Kill by Caitlyn Little (set by Sydney Marshall)
Set 2 · S MISS 20-22 MEM · MEM 72% → 77%
06
Sadie McAdaAttack error+4.6%
Sadie McAda stuffed by Arianna Mongare & Sydney Marshall
Set 3 · S MISS 21-23 MEM · MEM 90% → 95%
07
Sydney MarshallKill+4.3%
Kill by Sydney Marshall (set by Genesis Rodriguez)
Set 2 · S MISS 19-20 MEM · MEM 66% → 70%
08
Sadie McAdaKill+4.2%
Kill by Sadie McAda (set by Allie Hazelwood)
Set 2 · S MISS 17-16 MEM · S MISS 34% → 38%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Southern Miss.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
6Sadie McAdaOH	3	17	9	40	.200	0	0	1	6	0	2	1	18
16Elly StewartMB	3	5	1	16	.250	0	2	0	1	0	1	0.5	7.5
2Aubrey JuddOH	3	5	1	13	.308	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	5.5
5Kaylee LowtherL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	5	1	0	0	2
7Allie HazelwoodS	3	0	2	5	-.400	34	1	0	3	0	0	0	1
13Lillie JohnsonMB	2	1	2	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
21Diana WellsOH	3	8	6	22	.091	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8
3Sunni SheppardL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	2	0	2	13	1	0	0	0
8Maggie SewellMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
9Emily DavisOH	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	1
11Lindsey SmithL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
18Morgen DurgensS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	22	105	.143	36	6	5	39	5	6	3	61

Memphishome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Caitlyn LittleOH	3	15	5	37	.270	0	2	3	2	2	0	4	2	19
2Arianna MongareMB	3	8	1	11	.636	1	0	0	3	0	0	6	3	11
7Kaylee ParkerOH	3	6	0	12	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	3	9
15Amanda HardtOH	3	7	2	18	.278	1	1	3	10	2	0	0	0	8
22Sydney MarshallS	3	2	1	6	.167	38	0	0	5	0	0	2	1	3
14Genesis RodriguezOH	3	0	0	0	–	2	2	2	6	1	0	0	0	2
21Dawn MooreS	3	5	1	11	.364	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	2	7
9Abigail SchlueterL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	11	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	10	95	.347	43	5	8	39	6	1	20	11	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 S MISS · MEM 5

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 4 S MISSMEM 5

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 4 S MISSMEM 3

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 4 S MISSMEM 4

Bars above the line = Memphis leads, below = Southern Miss. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Southern Miss.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%7/16	40%4/10
2	44%7/16	22%2/9
3	43%6/14	46%6/13
4	55%6/11	45%5/11
5	75%6/8	40%4/10
6	56%5/9	33%3/9
All	50%37/74	39%24/62

Memphis

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	60%9/15
2	54%7/13	53%8/15
3	70%7/10	50%7/14
4	67%6/9	45%5/11
5	50%6/12	45%5/11
6	71%5/7	38%3/8
All	61%38/62	50%37/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

136 rallies

Rally log

#	S MISS-MEM	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.9
2	1-1	S MISS	MEM×5	Kill	Amanda Hardt	set Sydney Marshall	+1.9
3	1-2	MEM	MEM×5	Ace	MEM server	aced Diana Wells	+2.4
4	1-3	MEM	MEM×5	Attack err	Aubrey Judd	blk Caitlyn Little, Arianna Mongare	+2.5
5	1-4	MEM	MEM×5	Kill	Arianna Mongare	set Sydney Marshall	+2.4
6	1-5	MEM	MEM×5	Attack err	Lillie Johnson	blk Caitlyn Little, Arianna Mongare	+2.3
7	2-5	MEM	S MISS	Serve err	MEM server		+1.7
8	3-5	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.3
9	3-6	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Sydney Marshall	+2.0
10	3-7	MEM	MEM	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Genesis Rodriguez	+2.4
11	4-7	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.7
12	4-8	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Kaylee Parker	set Sydney Marshall	+2.0
13	5-8	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.7
14	5-9	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Kaylee Parker	set Sydney Marshall	+2.0
15	5-10	MEM	MEM	Ace	MEM server	aced Team	+2.2
16	6-10	MEM	S MISS×4	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.5
17	7-10	S MISS	S MISS×4	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.2
18	8-10	S MISS	S MISS×4	Attack err	Sydney Marshall		+2.5
19	9-10	S MISS	S MISS×4	Attack err	Amanda Hardt		+2.8
20	9-11	S MISS	MEM×3	Kill	Amanda Hardt	set Sydney Marshall	+2.5
21	9-12	MEM	MEM×3	Attack err	Sadie McAda	blk Dawn Moore, Arianna Mongare	+2.9
22	9-13	MEM	MEM×3	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+2.7
23	10-13	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.8
24	11-13	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.7
25	11-14	S MISS	MEM×3	Kill	Arianna Mongare	set Sydney Marshall	+2.5
26	11-15	MEM	MEM×3	Ace	MEM server	aced Kaylee Lowther	+2.8
27	11-16	MEM	MEM×3	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+2.4
28	12-16	MEM	S MISS	Serve err	MEM server		+1.5
29	12-17	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Arianna Mongare	set Sydney Marshall	+1.9
30	12-18	MEM	MEM	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Sydney Marshall	+1.8
31	13-18	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.0
32	14-18	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.7
33	14-19	S MISS	MEM	Attack err	Diana Wells		+1.9
34	15-19	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.3
35	16-19	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Caitlyn Little		+2.3
36	16-20	S MISS	MEM×3	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Sydney Marshall	+2.5
37	16-21	MEM	MEM×3	Attack err	Elly Stewart	blk Caitlyn Little, Kaylee Parker	+2.3
38	16-22	MEM	MEM×3	Attack err	Diana Wells	blk Kaylee Parker, Dawn Moore	+1.4
39	17-22	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.5
40	18-22	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.1
41	18-23	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Dawn Moore	set Sydney Marshall	+1.5
42	18-24	MEM	MEM	Kill	Sydney Marshall	set Amanda Hardt	+0.8
43	19-24	MEM	S MISS	Serve err	MEM server		+0.1
44	19-25	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Dawn Moore	set Sydney Marshall	+0.3
Set 2
1	1-0	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda		+2.5
2	1-1	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Amanda Hardt	set Sydney Marshall	+2.0
3	2-1	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.0
4	2-2	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Sydney Marshall	+2.0
5	2-3	MEM	MEM	Attack err	Lillie Johnson		+2.6
6	3-3	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.1
7	3-4	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Sydney Marshall	+2.2
8	4-4	MEM	S MISS×3	Attack err	Caitlyn Little		+2.1
9	5-4	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Diana Wells	set Sunni Sheppard	+2.7
10	6-4	S MISS	S MISS×3	Ace	S MISS server	aced Amanda Hardt	+2.7
11	6-5	S MISS	MEM×3	Attack err	Diana Wells	blk Kaylee Parker, Dawn Moore	+2.1
12	6-6	MEM	MEM×3	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+2.8
13	6-7	MEM	MEM×3	Ace	MEM server	aced Team	+2.9
14	7-7	MEM	S MISS	Serve err	MEM server		+2.3
15	7-8	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Kaylee Parker	set Sydney Marshall	+2.4
16	8-8	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.4
17	8-9	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Dawn Moore	set Sydney Marshall	+2.5
18	9-9	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.4
19	10-9	S MISS	S MISS	Ace	S MISS server	aced Genesis Rodriguez	+3.1
20	10-10	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Arianna Mongare	set Sydney Marshall	+2.5
21	11-10	MEM	S MISS	Serve err	MEM server		+2.6
22	11-11	S MISS	MEM	Serve err	S MISS server		+2.6
23	11-12	MEM	MEM	Attack err	Diana Wells		+3.4
24	12-12	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.7
25	12-13	S MISS	MEM	Serve err	S MISS server		+2.9
26	12-14	MEM	MEM	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Sydney Marshall	+3.6
27	13-14	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.7
28	13-15	S MISS	MEM	Serve err	S MISS server		+3.0
29	13-16	MEM	MEM	Attack err	Allie Hazelwood	blk Kaylee Parker	+3.5
30	14-16	MEM	S MISS×4	Serve err	MEM server		+2.4
31	15-16	S MISS	S MISS×4	Attack err	Dawn Moore	blk Sadie McAda, Elly Stewart	+3.6
32	16-16	S MISS	S MISS×4	Ace	S MISS server	aced Abigail Schlueter	+4.0
33	17-16	S MISS	S MISS×4	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+4.2
34	17-17	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Amanda Hardt	set Sydney Marshall	+3.4
35	18-17	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Sunni Sheppard	+3.6
36	18-18	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Arianna Mongare	set Sydney Marshall	+3.6
37	18-19	MEM	MEM	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+4.9
38	19-19	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+3.9
39	19-20	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Sydney Marshall	set Genesis Rodriguez	+4.3
40	19-21	MEM	MEM	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Sydney Marshall	+5.4
41	20-21	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+3.7
42	20-22	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Sydney Marshall	+4.8
43	21-22	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+3.9
44	21-23	S MISS	MEM×3	Attack err	Diana Wells		+5.4
45	21-24	MEM	MEM×3	Attack err	Emily Davis	blk Caitlyn Little, Kaylee Parker	+5.0
46	21-25	MEM	MEM×3	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Sydney Marshall	+2.2
Set 3
1	0-1	MEM	MEM×3	Ace	MEM server	aced Sunni Sheppard	+1.7
2	0-2	MEM	MEM×3	Kill	Amanda Hardt	set Sydney Marshall	+1.7
3	0-3	MEM	MEM×3	Kill	Arianna Mongare	set Sydney Marshall	+1.7
4	1-3	MEM	S MISS	Serve err	MEM server		+1.3
5	1-4	S MISS	MEM	Attack err	Allie Hazelwood		+1.4
6	1-5	MEM	MEM	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+1.7
7	2-5	MEM	S MISS×4	Kill	Maggie Sewell	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.2
8	3-5	S MISS	S MISS×4	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.7
9	4-5	S MISS	S MISS×4	Attack err	Caitlyn Little		+1.8
10	5-5	S MISS	S MISS×4	Attack err	Arianna Mongare	blk Sadie McAda, Maggie Sewell	+1.9
11	5-6	S MISS	MEM×3	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Abigail Schlueter	+1.6
12	5-7	MEM	MEM×3	Kill	Kaylee Parker	set Sydney Marshall	+2.0
13	5-8	MEM	MEM×3	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Sydney Marshall	+1.9
14	6-8	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.4
15	7-8	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Caitlyn Little	blk Maggie Sewell, Aubrey Judd	+1.9
16	7-9	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Kaylee Parker	set Sydney Marshall	+1.7
17	8-9	MEM	S MISS	Attack err	Amanda Hardt		+1.6
18	8-10	S MISS	MEM	Serve err	S MISS server		+1.7
19	9-10	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.6
20	9-11	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Dawn Moore	set Sydney Marshall	+1.8
21	9-12	MEM	MEM	Attack err	Diana Wells		+2.1
22	10-12	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.5
23	11-12	S MISS	S MISS	Ace	S MISS server	aced Caitlyn Little	+2.2
24	11-13	S MISS	MEM	Serve err	S MISS server		+1.9
25	12-13	MEM	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.8
26	13-13	S MISS	S MISS×3	Ace	S MISS server	aced Amanda Hardt	+2.4
27	14-13	S MISS	S MISS×3	Ace	S MISS server	aced Caitlyn Little	+2.5
28	14-14	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Amanda Hardt	set Sydney Marshall	+2.0
29	14-15	MEM	MEM	Attack err	Sadie McAda	blk Arianna Mongare, Sydney Marshall	+2.7
30	15-15	MEM	S MISS	Serve err	MEM server		+2.1
31	16-15	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.8
32	16-16	S MISS	MEM×3	Kill	Arianna Mongare	set Sydney Marshall	+2.2
33	16-17	MEM	MEM×3	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Sydney Marshall	+3.0
34	16-18	MEM	MEM×3	Kill	Kaylee Parker	set Sydney Marshall	+3.0
35	17-18	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.2
36	18-18	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Caitlyn Little		+3.1
37	18-19	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Sydney Marshall	+2.8
38	19-19	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.7
39	19-20	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Caitlyn Little	set Sydney Marshall	+3.0
40	20-20	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.9
41	20-21	S MISS	MEM	Kill	Dawn Moore	set Sydney Marshall	+3.3
42	21-21	MEM	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+3.2
43	21-22	S MISS	MEM×4	Attack err	Sadie McAda	blk Dawn Moore, Arianna Mongare	+3.8
44	21-23	MEM	MEM×4	Attack err	Sadie McAda	blk Arianna Mongare, Sydney Marshall	+4.6
45	21-24	MEM	MEM×4	Kill	Arianna Mongare	set Sydney Marshall	+3.5
46	21-25	MEM	MEM×4	Kill	Amanda Hardt	set Arianna Mongare	+1.5

Score shown after each rally, Southern Miss. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.