FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwaySUN-BELT

3:0

HomeCUSA

Southern Miss. def. Jacksonville St. 3–0

(25-22, 25-19, 25-14)

Set	1*	2*	3*	Sets
S MISS	25	25	25	3
JAX ST	22	19	14	0

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

JAX ST above 50 · S MISS below

Biggest swing: 3.4% to Jacksonville St. — set 1, S MISS 22-22 JAX ST. Attack error by Aubrey Judd. JAX ST win probability 10% → 14%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

S MISS 89.1%10.9% JAX ST

Southern Miss. wins

3-0

42.9%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.6%

Jacksonville St. wins

3-0

1.5%

3-1

3.4%

3-2

6.1%

S MISS break %: 48.8% vs this opp
JAX ST break %: 39.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Aubrey JuddAttack error+3.4%
Attack error by Aubrey Judd
Set 1 · S MISS 22-22 JAX ST · JAX ST 10% → 14%
02
Sophia SchweikertAttack error+3.3%
Attack error by Sophia Schweikert
Set 1 · S MISS 24-22 JAX ST · S MISS 90% → 93%
03
Aubrey JuddAttack error+3.1%
Attack error by Aubrey Judd
Set 1 · S MISS 23-22 JAX ST · S MISS 86% → 90%
04
Sophia SchweikertKill+2.0%
Kill by Sophia Schweikert (set by Sofia Varela)
Set 1 · S MISS 21-20 JAX ST · JAX ST 8% → 10%
05
Aubrey JuddKill+1.9%
Kill by Aubrey Judd (set by Allie Hazelwood)
Set 1 · S MISS 22-20 JAX ST · S MISS 90% → 92%
06
Azavia ThomasKill+1.7%
Kill by Azavia Thomas (set by Sofia Varela)
Set 1 · S MISS 22-21 JAX ST · JAX ST 8% → 10%
07
Azavia ThomasAttack error+1.6%
Attack error by Azavia Thomas
Set 1 · S MISS 25-22 JAX ST · S MISS 93% → 95%
08
Taya NordmannKill+1.3%
Kill by Taya Nordmann (set by Sofia Varela)
Set 1 · S MISS 12-11 JAX ST · JAX ST 9% → 10%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Southern Miss.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
6Sadie McAdaOH	3	11	1	23	.435	1	0	3	6	1	2	1	12
16Elly StewartMB	3	8	0	11	.727	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
13Lillie JohnsonMB	3	5	2	9	.333	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
2Aubrey JuddOH	3	6	2	13	.308	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6
7Allie HazelwoodS	3	1	0	2	.500	28	2	1	8	0	2	1	4
5Kaylee LowtherL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	1	4	1	0	0	3
21Diana WellsOH	3	6	2	21	.190	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	6
3Sunni SheppardL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	5	3	2	9	0	0	0	4
11Lindsey SmithL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	3	1	0	0	1
18Morgen DurgensS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	7	80	.388	34	10	10	35	4	8	4	75

Jacksonville St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
1Sophia SchweikertOH	3	10	2	24	.333	0	1	3	3	3	0	0	11
13Taya NordmannMB	3	7	1	10	.600	0	1	2	0	0	2	1	9
26Claire EvansOH	3	5	3	16	.125	0	0	4	6	3	1	0.5	5.5
8Lauren BuchananOH	3	4	4	19	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	4.5
2Addison StoneS	3	0	0	0	–	15	1	0	4	0	0	0	1
17D'Yanna SpicerMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
9Azavia ThomasOH	3	6	2	15	.267	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
11Reese TiesingDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	1
7Gemma MorrisDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	4	3	0	0	0
23Sofia VarelaS	3	0	0	0	–	14	0	2	6	0	0	0	0
16Delaney MoonL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Chloe MittelstadtOPP	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15Riley HuffMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	12	84	.238	30	4	13	29	10	6	3	55

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 S MISS · JAX ST 4

Set 1*

25-22

Longest run 4 S MISSJAX ST 3

Set 2*

25-19

Longest run 4 S MISSJAX ST 4

Set 3*

25-14

Longest run 7 S MISSJAX ST 2

Bars above the line = Jacksonville St. leads, below = Southern Miss. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Southern Miss.

No clean sets to split.

Jacksonville St.

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	S MISS-JAX ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	S MISS	JAX ST	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+1.0
2	1-1	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda		+0.9
3	2-1	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Claire Evans		+1.1
4	2-2	S MISS	JAX ST	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.9
5	3-2	JAX ST	S MISS	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.8
6	4-2	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Lillie Johnson		+1.0
7	4-3	S MISS	JAX ST	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.8
8	4-4	JAX ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Diana Wells		+1.2
9	5-4	JAX ST	S MISS	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.9
10	5-5	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert		+1.0
11	6-5	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.9
12	6-6	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Addison Stone	+1.0
13	7-6	JAX ST	S MISS	Serve err	JAX ST server		+1.0
14	7-7	S MISS	JAX ST	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+1.1
15	8-7	JAX ST	S MISS	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+1.0
16	9-7	S MISS	S MISS	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+1.2
17	9-8	S MISS	JAX ST	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+1.0
18	10-8	JAX ST	S MISS	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.9
19	11-8	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Lillie Johnson		+1.0
20	11-9	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+0.8
21	12-9	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Sunni Sheppard	+0.8
22	12-10	S MISS	JAX ST	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+0.8
23	12-11	JAX ST	JAX ST	Kill	Taya Nordmann	set Sofia Varela	+1.3
24	13-11	JAX ST	S MISS	Serve err	JAX ST server		+1.1
25	14-11	S MISS	S MISS	Serve err	S MISS server		+1.2
26	14-12	S MISS	JAX ST	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.9
27	15-12	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.9
28	15-13	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Sofia Varela	+0.9
29	16-13	JAX ST	S MISS×4	Kill	Diana Wells	set Sunni Sheppard	+1.0
30	17-13	S MISS	S MISS×4	Ace	S MISS server	aced Claire Evans	+1.0
31	18-13	S MISS	S MISS×4	Ace	S MISS server	aced Team	+0.7
32	19-13	S MISS	S MISS×4	Kill	Elly Stewart		+0.5
33	19-14	S MISS	JAX ST	Bad set	Elly Stewart		+0.2
34	19-15	JAX ST	JAX ST	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.5
35	20-15	JAX ST	S MISS	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.5
36	20-16	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+0.4
37	20-17	JAX ST	JAX ST	Ace	JAX ST server	aced Kaylee Lowther	+0.8
38	21-17	JAX ST	S MISS	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.8
39	21-18	S MISS	JAX ST×3	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Addison Stone	+0.6
40	21-19	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Sofia Varela	+1.3
41	21-20	JAX ST	JAX ST×3	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Sofia Varela	+2.0
42	22-20	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.9
43	22-21	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Sofia Varela	+1.7
44	22-22	JAX ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Aubrey Judd		+3.4
45	23-22	JAX ST	S MISS×3	Attack err	Aubrey Judd		+3.1
46	24-22	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Sophia Schweikert		+3.3
47	25-22	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Azavia Thomas		+1.6
Set 2
1	1-0	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Sunni Sheppard	+0.5
2	1-1	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Sofia Varela	+0.6
3	2-1	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.6
4	3-1	S MISS	S MISS	Ace	S MISS server	aced Sophia Schweikert	+0.7
5	3-2	S MISS	JAX ST	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.5
6	4-2	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.5
7	5-2	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.6
8	5-3	S MISS	JAX ST×4	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Sofia Varela	+0.5
9	5-4	JAX ST	JAX ST×4	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Addison Stone	+0.7
10	5-5	JAX ST	JAX ST×4	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Addison Stone	+0.9
11	5-6	JAX ST	JAX ST×4	Ace	JAX ST server	aced Sadie McAda	+1.0
12	6-6	JAX ST	S MISS	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.7
13	6-7	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+0.8
14	7-7	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Sunni Sheppard		+0.7
15	8-7	S MISS	S MISS	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.9
16	8-8	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Lauren Buchanan	set Addison Stone	+0.8
17	9-8	JAX ST	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda		+0.7
18	10-8	S MISS	S MISS×3	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.8
19	11-8	S MISS	S MISS×3	Ace	S MISS server	aced Gemma Morris	+0.7
20	11-9	S MISS	JAX ST	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.6
21	11-10	JAX ST	JAX ST	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.9
22	12-10	JAX ST	S MISS×3	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.7
23	13-10	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.8
24	14-10	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.6
25	14-11	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Claire Evans	set Sofia Varela	+0.5
26	15-11	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.5
27	15-12	S MISS	JAX ST	Attack err	Aubrey Judd		+0.5
28	15-13	JAX ST	JAX ST	Ace	JAX ST server	aced Team	+0.8
29	16-13	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.7
30	16-14	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Sofia Varela	+0.6
31	16-15	JAX ST	JAX ST	Kill	Diana Wells	set Addison Stone	+1.1
32	17-15	JAX ST	S MISS×4	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.9
33	18-15	S MISS	S MISS×4	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.0
34	19-15	S MISS	S MISS×4	Bad set	Addison Stone		+0.7
35	20-15	S MISS	S MISS×4	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.5
36	20-16	S MISS	JAX ST	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.3
37	21-16	JAX ST	S MISS	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.4
38	22-16	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Allie Hazelwood		+0.2
39	22-17	S MISS	JAX ST	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
40	23-17	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Lillie Johnson		+0.2
41	23-18	S MISS	JAX ST	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
42	23-19	JAX ST	JAX ST	Kill	Taya Nordmann	set Sofia Varela	+0.2
43	24-19	JAX ST	S MISS	Attack err	Taya Nordmann		+0.2
44	25-19	S MISS	S MISS	Bad set	Sofia Varela		+0.1
Set 3
1	0-1	S MISS	JAX ST	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.3
2	1-1	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd		+0.3
3	1-2	S MISS	JAX ST	Attack err	Aubrey Judd		+0.3
4	2-2	JAX ST	S MISS×7	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.3
5	3-2	S MISS	S MISS×7	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.4
6	4-2	S MISS	S MISS×7	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.3
7	5-2	S MISS	S MISS×7	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.3
8	6-2	S MISS	S MISS×7	Ace	S MISS server	aced Gemma Morris	+0.2
9	7-2	S MISS	S MISS×7	Ace	S MISS server	aced Sophia Schweikert	+0.2
10	8-2	S MISS	S MISS×7	Attack err	Azavia Thomas		+0.1
11	8-3	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Taya Nordmann	set Sofia Varela	+0.1
12	8-4	JAX ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Diana Wells	blk D'Yanna Spicer, Azavia Thomas	+0.2
13	9-4	JAX ST	S MISS	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.2
14	10-4	S MISS	S MISS	Ace	S MISS server	aced Claire Evans	+0.2
15	10-5	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Azavia Thomas	set Sofia Varela	+0.1
16	11-5	JAX ST	S MISS×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
17	12-5	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Lauren Buchanan		+0.1
18	13-5	S MISS	S MISS×3	Ace	S MISS server	aced Claire Evans	+0.1
19	13-6	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert		+0.0
20	14-6	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda		+0.1
21	14-7	S MISS	JAX ST	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+0.0
22	15-7	JAX ST	S MISS	Serve err	JAX ST server		+0.1
23	16-7	S MISS	S MISS	Ace	S MISS server	aced Sophia Schweikert	+0.0
24	16-8	S MISS	JAX ST	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.0
25	17-8	JAX ST	S MISS	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
26	17-9	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Taya Nordmann		+0.0
27	18-9	JAX ST	S MISS	Attack err	Taya Nordmann		+0.0
28	18-10	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert	set Sofia Varela	+0.0
29	18-11	JAX ST	JAX ST	Attack err	Diana Wells		+0.0
30	19-11	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Riley Huff	+0.0
31	19-12	S MISS	JAX ST	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.0
32	20-12	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart		+0.0
33	21-12	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Lauren Buchanan	blk Allie Hazelwood, Elly Stewart	+0.0
34	21-13	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Sophia Schweikert		+0.0
35	22-13	JAX ST	S MISS×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
36	23-13	S MISS	S MISS×3	Ace	S MISS server	aced Gemma Morris	+0.0
37	24-13	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Claire Evans	blk Allie Hazelwood, Lillie Johnson	+0.0
38	24-14	S MISS	JAX ST	Kill	Claire Evans	set Addison Stone	+0.0
39	25-14	JAX ST	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Southern Miss. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.