FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwaySUN-BELT

3:0

HomeUAC-

Southern Miss. def. Central Ark. 3–0

(25-18, 25-17, 35-33)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
S MISS	25	25	35	3
C ARK	18	17	33	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

C ARK above 50 · S MISS below

Biggest swing: 3.4% to Central Ark. — set 3, S MISS 24-25 C ARK. Diana Wells stuffed by Greyson Button & Nicole Sargent. C ARK win probability 5% → 8%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

S MISS 77.5%22.5% C ARK

Southern Miss. wins

3-0

29.2%

3-1

29.5%

3-2

18.8%

Central Ark. wins

3-0

3.8%

3-1

7.6%

3-2

11.1%

S MISS break %: 46.4% vs this opp
C ARK break %: 40.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Diana WellsAttack error+3.4%
Diana Wells stuffed by Greyson Button & Nicole Sargent
Set 3 · S MISS 24-25 C ARK · C ARK 5% → 8%
02
Kennady MartindaleKill+3.4%
Kill by Kennady Martindale (set by Tatelyn Brandsma)
Set 3 · S MISS 27-28 C ARK · C ARK 5% → 8%
03
C ARK serverAce+3.4%
Central Ark. ace on Kaylee Lowther
Set 3 · S MISS 31-32 C ARK · C ARK 5% → 8%
04
Nicole SargentAttack error+3.0%
Attack error by Nicole Sargent
Set 3 · S MISS 24-23 C ARK · S MISS 94% → 97%
05
Diana WellsKill+3.0%
Kill by Diana Wells (set by Allie Hazelwood)
Set 3 · S MISS 27-26 C ARK · S MISS 94% → 97%
06
Allie HazelwoodKill+3.0%
Kill by Allie Hazelwood (set by Sadie McAda)
Set 3 · S MISS 29-28 C ARK · S MISS 94% → 97%
07
Tatelyn BrandsmaAttack error+3.0%
Attack error by Tatelyn Brandsma
Set 3 · S MISS 34-33 C ARK · S MISS 94% → 97%
08
Diana WellsKill+2.7%
Kill by Diana Wells (set by Sunni Sheppard)
Set 3 · S MISS 35-33 C ARK · S MISS 97% → 100%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Southern Miss.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Sadie McAdaOH	3	17	5	40	.300	1	1	4	15	0	0	0	0	18
16Elly StewartMB	3	9	3	21	.286	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
7Allie HazelwoodS	3	3	0	7	.429	41	3	0	10	0	1	3	2.5	8.5
2Aubrey JuddOH	3	7	3	19	.211	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	8
13Lillie JohnsonMB	3	4	2	8	.250	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	5
5Kaylee LowtherL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	8	2	0	0	0	0
21Diana WellsOH	3	11	7	40	.100	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	11
11Lindsey SmithL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	0	1
3Sunni SheppardL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	1	22	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		51	20	137	.226	48	7	7	69	4	2	6	5	85

Central Ark.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Nicole SargentOPP	3	8	2	20	.300	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	9
12Sarah CarnathanOH	3	8	9	41	-.024	0	0	0	12	3	0	1	0.5	8.5
20Greyson ButtonMB	3	5	3	18	.111	0	0	0	1	1	0	6	3	8
8McKinzee HaasMB	3	5	2	13	.231	0	1	0	3	0	1	2	2	8
4Kennady MartindaleMB	2	8	3	22	.227	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	8
23Sophie SkinnerS	2	0	0	4	.000	15	0	0	2	0	0	4	2	2
5Olivia KremerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	1	12	0	0	0	0	3
22Cameron McDanielL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	1	16	0	0	0	0	0
2Trinity HamiltonOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	9	0	0	0	0	0
11Fiona VanDykeOH	2	2	3	12	-.083	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
16Tatelyn BrandsmaS	1	1	1	2	.000	18	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
Team totals		37	23	133	.105	35	4	3	60	7	1	16	9	68

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 S MISS · C ARK 5

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 4 S MISSC ARK 3

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 5 S MISSC ARK 4

Set 3

35-33

Longest run 4 S MISSC ARK 5

Bars above the line = Central Ark. leads, below = Southern Miss. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Southern Miss.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%8/16	53%8/15
2	53%8/15	50%8/16
3	54%7/13	42%5/12
4	78%7/9	59%10/17
5	78%7/9	42%5/12
6	86%6/7	50%6/12
All	62%43/69	50%42/84

Central Ark.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%8/17	42%5/12
2	62%8/13	38%5/13
3	37%7/19	47%7/15
4	70%7/10	42%5/12
5	46%6/13	30%3/10
6	50%6/12	14%1/7
All	50%42/84	38%26/69

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

153 rallies

Rally log

#	S MISS-C ARK	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	McKinzee Haas		+1.7
2	2-0	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Kennady Martindale		+1.6
3	2-1	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Sophie Skinner	+1.3
4	2-2	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Lillie Johnson	blk Sarah Carnathan, McKinzee Haas	+1.8
5	3-2	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.4
6	3-3	S MISS	C ARK	Serve err	S MISS server		+1.5
7	4-3	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.4
8	5-3	S MISS	S MISS	Ace	S MISS server	aced Team	+1.7
9	5-4	S MISS	C ARK	Attack err	Diana Wells		+1.4
10	6-4	C ARK	S MISS	Serve err	C ARK server		+1.4
11	6-5	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Sophie Skinner	+1.4
12	6-6	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Diana Wells	blk Greyson Button, Sophie Skinner	+2.0
13	7-6	C ARK	S MISS×3	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.5
14	8-6	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.9
15	9-6	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.7
16	9-7	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Sophie Skinner	+1.3
17	10-7	C ARK	S MISS×3	Kill	Allie Hazelwood	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.3
18	11-7	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda		+1.5
19	12-7	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.2
20	12-8	S MISS	C ARK	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.8
21	13-8	C ARK	S MISS×4	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.9
22	14-8	S MISS	S MISS×4	Ace	S MISS server	aced Kennady Martindale	+0.9
23	15-8	S MISS	S MISS×4	Ace	S MISS server	aced Sarah Carnathan	+0.7
24	16-8	S MISS	S MISS×4	Ace	S MISS server	aced Sarah Carnathan	+0.4
25	16-9	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Sophie Skinner	+0.2
26	17-9	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.3
27	17-10	S MISS	C ARK×3	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Sophie Skinner	+0.2
28	17-11	C ARK	C ARK×3	Attack err	Diana Wells		+0.4
29	17-12	C ARK	C ARK×3	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Sophie Skinner	+0.7
30	18-12	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Aubrey Judd	+0.7
31	18-13	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Sophie Skinner	+0.5
32	18-14	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Elly Stewart		+0.9
33	19-14	C ARK	S MISS	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan	blk Aubrey Judd	+1.0
34	20-14	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.8
35	20-15	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Sophie Skinner	+0.4
36	21-15	C ARK	S MISS	Attack err	Kennady Martindale		+0.6
37	21-16	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Sophie Skinner	+0.3
38	21-17	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Sadie McAda	blk Sophie Skinner, McKinzee Haas	+0.7
39	22-17	C ARK	S MISS×3	Kill	Allie Hazelwood	set Kaylee Lowther	+0.8
40	23-17	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.5
41	24-17	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Fiona VanDyke		+0.2
42	24-18	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Fiona VanDyke	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
43	25-18	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	C ARK	C ARK×4	Attack err	Aubrey Judd		+1.5
2	0-2	C ARK	C ARK×4	Attack err	Sadie McAda	blk McKinzee Haas	+1.6
3	0-3	C ARK	C ARK×4	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Sophie Skinner	+1.7
4	0-4	C ARK	C ARK×4	Ace	C ARK server	aced Kaylee Lowther	+1.7
5	1-4	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.1
6	2-4	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+1.5
7	2-5	S MISS	C ARK	Serve err	S MISS server		+1.4
8	3-5	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.2
9	3-6	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Sophie Skinner	+1.4
10	4-6	C ARK	S MISS×4	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.2
11	5-6	S MISS	S MISS×4	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.6
12	6-6	S MISS	S MISS×4	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+1.6
13	7-6	S MISS	S MISS×4	Ace	S MISS server	aced Greyson Button	+1.6
14	7-7	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Sophie Skinner	+1.3
15	8-7	C ARK	S MISS	Attack err	Greyson Button		+1.2
16	8-8	S MISS	C ARK	Attack err	Sadie McAda	blk Sophie Skinner, Greyson Button	+1.3
17	8-9	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Fiona VanDyke	set Cameron McDaniel	+1.9
18	9-9	C ARK	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.4
19	10-9	S MISS	S MISS×3	Ace	S MISS server	aced Sarah Carnathan	+1.7
20	11-9	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Fiona VanDyke	blk Lillie Johnson, Allie Hazelwood	+1.6
21	11-10	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Sophie Skinner	+1.2
22	12-10	C ARK	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.3
23	13-10	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Fiona VanDyke		+1.5
24	14-10	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.2
25	14-11	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Sophie Skinner	+0.8
26	15-11	C ARK	S MISS×3	Attack err	McKinzee Haas		+1.0
27	16-11	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Nicole Sargent		+1.0
28	17-11	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.7
29	17-12	S MISS	C ARK	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.4
30	17-13	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Diana Wells	blk Nicole Sargent, Greyson Button	+0.8
31	18-13	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.8
32	18-14	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Sunni Sheppard	+0.6
33	18-15	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Diana Wells	blk Greyson Button, Sophie Skinner	+1.1
34	19-15	C ARK	S MISS×5	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Sarah Carnathan	+1.1
35	20-15	S MISS	S MISS×5	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+1.0
36	21-15	S MISS	S MISS×5	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan	blk Allie Hazelwood, Elly Stewart	+0.6
37	22-15	S MISS	S MISS×5	Attack err	Greyson Button		+0.3
38	23-15	S MISS	S MISS×5	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan	blk Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
39	23-16	S MISS	C ARK	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.0
40	24-16	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
41	24-17	S MISS	C ARK	Attack err	Elly Stewart		+0.0
42	25-17	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.6
2	1-1	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.6
3	1-2	S MISS	C ARK×4	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.6
4	1-3	C ARK	C ARK×4	Attack err	Lillie Johnson		+0.8
5	1-4	C ARK	C ARK×4	Ace	C ARK server	aced Diana Wells	+0.9
6	1-5	C ARK	C ARK×4	Kill	Greyson Button	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.9
7	2-5	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.6
8	2-6	S MISS	C ARK×5	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.7
9	2-7	C ARK	C ARK×5	Attack err	Elly Stewart	blk Greyson Button, Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.9
10	2-8	C ARK	C ARK×5	Attack err	Diana Wells		+0.8
11	2-9	C ARK	C ARK×5	Attack err	Aubrey Judd		+0.7
12	2-10	C ARK	C ARK×5	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.6
13	3-10	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.3
14	3-11	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.5
15	4-11	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.3
16	4-12	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.5
17	5-12	C ARK	S MISS	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.3
18	5-13	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Tatelyn Brandsma	set Trinity Hamilton	+0.5
19	5-14	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.4
20	6-14	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.2
21	7-14	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.4
22	7-15	S MISS	C ARK×3	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.4
23	7-16	C ARK	C ARK×3	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.4
24	7-17	C ARK	C ARK×3	Ace	C ARK server	aced Team	+0.3
25	8-17	C ARK	S MISS×4	Kill	Lillie Johnson	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
26	9-17	S MISS	S MISS×4	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Sunni Sheppard	+0.2
27	10-17	S MISS	S MISS×4	Kill	Diana Wells	set Aubrey Judd	+0.3
28	11-17	S MISS	S MISS×4	Ace	S MISS server	aced Team	+0.4
29	11-18	S MISS	C ARK	Attack err	Aubrey Judd		+0.5
30	12-18	C ARK	S MISS×3	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.3
31	13-18	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.5
32	14-18	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Aubrey Judd	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.7
33	14-19	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.8
34	15-19	C ARK	S MISS	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.5
35	16-19	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.9
36	16-20	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+1.0
37	17-20	C ARK	S MISS×3	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.7
38	18-20	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Greyson Button		+1.1
39	19-20	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.4
40	19-21	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+1.5
41	20-21	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.2
42	20-22	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+1.6
43	21-22	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+1.2
44	21-23	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+1.8
45	22-23	C ARK	S MISS×3	Serve err	C ARK server		+1.3
46	23-23	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Diana Wells	set Sunni Sheppard	+2.5
47	24-23	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Nicole Sargent		+3.0
48	24-24	S MISS	C ARK	Serve err	S MISS server		+2.3
49	24-25	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Diana Wells	blk Greyson Button, Nicole Sargent	+3.4
50	25-25	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.6
51	25-26	S MISS	C ARK	Serve err	S MISS server		+2.6
52	26-26	C ARK	S MISS	Bad set	Tatelyn Brandsma		+2.6
53	27-26	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+3.0
54	27-27	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+2.3
55	27-28	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+3.4
56	28-28	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.6
57	29-28	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Allie Hazelwood	set Sadie McAda	+3.0
58	29-29	S MISS	C ARK	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+2.3
59	30-29	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.3
60	30-30	S MISS	C ARK	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+2.3
61	31-30	C ARK	S MISS	Attack err	Kennady Martindale	blk Lillie Johnson, Allie Hazelwood	+2.3
62	31-31	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+2.3
63	31-32	C ARK	C ARK	Ace	C ARK server	aced Kaylee Lowther	+3.4
64	32-32	C ARK	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.6
65	32-33	S MISS	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+2.6
66	33-33	C ARK	S MISS×3	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+2.6
67	34-33	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Tatelyn Brandsma		+3.0
68	35-33	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Diana Wells	set Sunni Sheppard	+2.7

Score shown after each rally, Southern Miss. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.