FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwaySWAC

0:3

HomeSUN-BELT

Southern Miss. def. Jackson St. 3–0

(25-23, 25-19, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
JACKST	23	19	20	0
S MISS	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

S MISS above 50 · JACKST below

Biggest swing: 2.7% to Southern Miss. — set 1, JACKST 23-25 S MISS. Jayla David stuffed by Lillie Johnson. S MISS win probability 93% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

JACKST 7.8%92.2% S MISS

Jackson St. wins

3-0

1.0%

3-1

2.3%

3-2

4.5%

Southern Miss. wins

3-0

48.6%

3-1

31.2%

3-2

12.4%

JACKST break %: 39.5% vs this opp
S MISS break %: 50.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Jayla DavidAttack error+2.7%
Jayla David stuffed by Lillie Johnson
Set 1 · JACKST 23-25 S MISS · S MISS 93% → 96%
02
Diana WellsAttack error+1.6%
Attack error by Diana Wells
Set 1 · JACKST 23-24 S MISS · JACKST 5% → 7%
03
Hope BriggsAttack error+1.2%
Hope Briggs stuffed by Sadie McAda & Lillie Johnson
Set 1 · JACKST 21-24 S MISS · S MISS 94% → 96%
04
Diana WellsAttack error+1.1%
Diana Wells stuffed by Hope Briggs & Jayla David
Set 1 · JACKST 4-3 S MISS · JACKST 8% → 9%
05
Parker FeatherstoneKill+1.0%
Kill by Parker Featherstone (set by Naija Gadis)
Set 1 · JACKST 9-10 S MISS · JACKST 7% → 8%
06
Emily DavisAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Emily Davis
Set 1 · JACKST 3-3 S MISS · JACKST 7% → 8%
07
Diana WellsKill+0.9%
Kill by Diana Wells (set by Allie Hazelwood)
Set 1 · JACKST 4-5 S MISS · S MISS 92% → 93%
08
Lillie JohnsonAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Lillie Johnson
Set 1 · JACKST 21-23 S MISS · JACKST 5% → 6%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Jackson St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
9Shelby ZandersMB	3	6	1	16	.313	0	0	2	2	0	4	2	8
0Sophia McKenzieOH	3	5	4	28	.036	0	0	1	5	2	1	0.5	5.5
10Jayla DavidMB	3	4	2	12	.167	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
1Hope BriggsOH	3	3	3	18	.000	0	0	0	3	1	4	2	5
3Parker FeatherstoneOH	3	4	2	16	.125	0	0	0	12	0	1	0.5	4.5
2Kayla TroutmanS	2	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
12Jada ConstanzaOH	3	2	4	10	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
14Ryleigh DavisS	3	1	0	5	.200	3	0	0	3	0	3	1.5	2.5
16Maya ReevesDS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	1
7Giannelle AsomaniL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	1	8	4	0	0	1
6Naija GadisS	3	0	0	0	–	9	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
15Kyra DoveMB	2	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	3
8Mackenzie MooreOH	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		27	17	109	.092	22	1	4	43	10	22	11	62

Southern Miss.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Sadie McAdaOH	3	14	6	32	.250	0	2	1	13	0	0	1	0.5	16.5
16Elly StewartMB	3	6	1	13	.385	0	3	1	1	0	0	2	1	10
9Emily DavisOH	3	8	6	22	.091	0	0	0	5	0	0	2	1	9
7Allie HazelwoodS	3	1	0	3	.333	34	1	1	7	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
5Kaylee LowtherL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	3	5	0	0	0	0	2
13Lillie JohnsonMB	1	0	2	3	-.667	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	1.5
21Diana WellsOH	3	9	6	22	.136	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	9
18Morgen DurgensS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
3Sunni SheppardL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	1	14	0	0	0	0	1
11Lindsey SmithL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
8Maggie SewellMB	2	4	1	12	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
23Miranda HolincheckL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
10Tarah YunesOH	1	2	1	7	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
4Sophie SosaMB	1	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
2Aubrey JuddOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20Ella WardDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	25	119	.160	40	10	8	59	1	2	8	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 JACKST · S MISS 7

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 4 JACKSTS MISS 4

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 4 JACKSTS MISS 7

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 4 JACKSTS MISS 6

Bars above the line = Southern Miss. leads, below = Jackson St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Jackson St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	32%7/22	25%2/8
2	55%6/11	50%7/14
3	75%6/8	57%8/14
4	75%6/8	33%3/9
5	28%5/18	33%3/9
6	67%4/6	50%5/10
All	47%34/73	44%28/64

Southern Miss.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	62%8/13
2	44%7/16	56%9/16
3	43%6/14	50%6/12
4	86%6/7	14%1/7
5	63%5/8	44%4/9
6	56%5/9	69%11/16
All	56%36/64	53%39/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

137 rallies

Rally log

#	JACKST-S MISS	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	JACKST	S MISS×3	Kill	Emily Davis	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.6
2	0-2	S MISS	S MISS×3	Ace	S MISS server	aced Team	+0.7
3	0-3	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Hope Briggs		+0.6
4	1-3	S MISS	JACKST×4	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.5
5	2-3	JACKST	JACKST×4	Attack err	Diana Wells		+0.8
6	3-3	JACKST	JACKST×4	Attack err	Emily Davis		+0.9
7	4-3	JACKST	JACKST×4	Attack err	Diana Wells	blk Hope Briggs, Jayla David	+1.1
8	4-4	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Emily Davis	set Sunni Sheppard	+0.8
9	4-5	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.9
10	5-5	S MISS	JACKST	Kill	Jayla David	set Kayla Troutman	+0.8
11	5-6	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.7
12	6-6	S MISS	JACKST	Attack err	Diana Wells		+0.8
13	6-7	JACKST	S MISS	Attack err	Shelby Zanders	blk Allie Hazelwood	+0.8
14	6-8	S MISS	S MISS	Ace	S MISS server	aced Sophia McKenzie	+0.9
15	7-8	S MISS	JACKST	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.7
16	7-9	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.7
17	7-10	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.8
18	8-10	S MISS	JACKST	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.6
19	9-10	JACKST	JACKST	Kill	Parker Featherstone	set Naija Gadis	+1.0
20	9-11	JACKST	S MISS	Serve err	JACKST server		+0.8
21	9-12	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Jada Constanza		+0.8
22	10-12	S MISS	JACKST	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.7
23	10-13	JACKST	S MISS×4	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.7
24	10-14	S MISS	S MISS×4	Attack err	Hope Briggs		+0.7
25	10-15	S MISS	S MISS×4	Ace	S MISS server	aced Hope Briggs	+0.5
26	10-16	S MISS	S MISS×4	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.4
27	11-16	S MISS	JACKST	Attack err	Lillie Johnson		+0.2
28	12-16	JACKST	JACKST	Kill	Jayla David		+0.4
29	12-17	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Emily Davis	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.4
30	12-18	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart		+0.4
31	13-18	S MISS	JACKST	Kill	Hope Briggs	set Kayla Troutman	+0.2
32	14-18	JACKST	JACKST	Attack err	Elly Stewart	blk Hope Briggs, Shelby Zanders	+0.4
33	14-19	JACKST	S MISS	Serve err	JACKST server		+0.4
34	15-19	S MISS	JACKST	Kill	Hope Briggs	set Kayla Troutman	+0.3
35	15-20	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.4
36	16-20	S MISS	JACKST	Kill	Jada Constanza	set Naija Gadis	+0.3
37	17-20	JACKST	JACKST	Attack err	Sadie McAda	blk Shelby Zanders, Jada Constanza	+0.6
38	17-21	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.7
39	17-22	S MISS	S MISS	Ace	S MISS server	aced Maya Reeves	+0.5
40	18-22	S MISS	JACKST	Kill	Shelby Zanders	set Naija Gadis	+0.2
41	18-23	JACKST	S MISS	Serve err	JACKST server		+0.3
42	19-23	S MISS	JACKST×3	Kill	Jayla David	set Naija Gadis	+0.2
43	20-23	JACKST	JACKST×3	Attack err	Emily Davis	blk Hope Briggs, Jayla David	+0.4
44	21-23	JACKST	JACKST×3	Attack err	Lillie Johnson		+0.9
45	21-24	JACKST	S MISS	Attack err	Hope Briggs	blk Sadie McAda, Lillie Johnson	+1.2
46	22-24	S MISS	JACKST	Kill	Maya Reeves	set Ryleigh Davis	+0.5
47	23-24	JACKST	JACKST	Attack err	Diana Wells		+1.6
48	23-25	JACKST	S MISS	Attack err	Jayla David	blk Lillie Johnson	+2.7
Set 2
1	0-1	S MISS	S MISS	Ace	S MISS server	aced Team	+0.5
2	1-1	S MISS	JACKST	Attack err	Emily Davis	blk Jayla David, Parker Featherstone	+0.5
3	2-1	JACKST	JACKST	Kill	Sophia McKenzie	set Giannelle Asomani	+0.7
4	2-2	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.5
5	3-2	S MISS	JACKST	Kill	Sophia McKenzie	set Giannelle Asomani	+0.6
6	3-3	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.5
7	3-4	S MISS	S MISS	Attack err	Sophia McKenzie		+0.6
8	4-4	S MISS	JACKST	Kill	Ryleigh Davis	set Ryleigh Davis	+0.5
9	5-4	JACKST	JACKST	Attack err	Diana Wells		+0.7
10	5-5	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.5
11	6-5	S MISS	JACKST	Kill	Shelby Zanders	set Naija Gadis	+0.6
12	6-6	JACKST	S MISS	Serve err	JACKST server		+0.6
13	6-7	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Sunni Sheppard	+0.6
14	7-7	S MISS	JACKST	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.6
15	8-7	JACKST	JACKST	Kill	Parker Featherstone		+0.8
16	8-8	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.6
17	8-9	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.7
18	9-9	S MISS	JACKST	Kill	Jayla David	set Naija Gadis	+0.6
19	9-10	JACKST	S MISS×7	Kill	Maggie Sewell	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.6
20	9-11	S MISS	S MISS×7	Attack err	Parker Featherstone	blk Maggie Sewell, Emily Davis	+0.6
21	9-12	S MISS	S MISS×7	Kill	Maggie Sewell	set Ryleigh Davis	+0.5
22	9-13	S MISS	S MISS×7	Kill	Emily Davis	set Maggie Sewell	+0.4
23	9-14	S MISS	S MISS×7	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.3
24	9-15	S MISS	S MISS×7	Attack err	Parker Featherstone		+0.2
25	9-16	S MISS	S MISS×7	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.2
26	10-16	S MISS	JACKST	Kill	Parker Featherstone	set Ryleigh Davis	+0.1
27	10-17	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Maggie Sewell	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
28	10-18	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Emily Davis	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
29	11-18	S MISS	JACKST×4	Kill	Kyra Dove	set Ryleigh Davis	+0.1
30	12-18	JACKST	JACKST×4	Bad set	Ella Ward		+0.1
31	13-18	JACKST	JACKST×4	Ace	JACKST server	aced Ella Ward	+0.2
32	14-18	JACKST	JACKST×4	Kill	Shelby Zanders	set Giannelle Asomani	+0.3
33	14-19	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.3
34	14-20	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Sunni Sheppard	+0.2
35	15-20	S MISS	JACKST×3	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.1
36	16-20	JACKST	JACKST×3	Kill	Shelby Zanders	set Naija Gadis	+0.2
37	17-20	JACKST	JACKST×3	Kill	Sophia McKenzie	set Giannelle Asomani	+0.4
38	17-21	JACKST	S MISS	Attack err	Sophia McKenzie		+0.4
39	17-22	S MISS	S MISS	Ace	S MISS server	aced Giannelle Asomani	+0.3
40	18-22	S MISS	JACKST	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.2
41	19-22	JACKST	JACKST	Kill	Jada Constanza	set Giannelle Asomani	+0.4
42	19-23	JACKST	S MISS×3	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.4
43	19-24	S MISS	S MISS×3	Ace	S MISS server	aced Giannelle Asomani	+0.2
44	19-25	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Morgen Durgens	+0.1
Set 3
1	0-1	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Emily Davis	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.2
2	0-2	S MISS	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.2
3	1-2	S MISS	JACKST	Kill	Parker Featherstone	set Kayla Troutman	+0.2
4	1-3	JACKST	S MISS×3	Kill	Emily Davis	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.2
5	1-4	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Sophia McKenzie	blk Emily Davis, Elly Stewart	+0.2
6	1-5	S MISS	S MISS×3	Ace	S MISS server	aced Sophia McKenzie	+0.2
7	2-5	S MISS	JACKST	Kill	Sophia McKenzie	set Kayla Troutman	+0.1
8	3-5	JACKST	JACKST	Attack err	Emily Davis		+0.2
9	3-6	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Diana Wells	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.2
10	4-6	S MISS	JACKST	Attack err	Diana Wells	blk Hope Briggs, Shelby Zanders	+0.2
11	4-7	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Elly Stewart	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.2
12	5-7	S MISS	JACKST	Kill	Shelby Zanders	set Naija Gadis	+0.2
13	5-8	JACKST	S MISS×6	Attack err	Jada Constanza	blk Allie Hazelwood, Elly Stewart	+0.2
14	5-9	S MISS	S MISS×6	Ace	S MISS server	aced Giannelle Asomani	+0.2
15	5-10	S MISS	S MISS×6	Ace	S MISS server	aced Giannelle Asomani	+0.1
16	5-11	S MISS	S MISS×6	Attack err	Jada Constanza		+0.1
17	5-12	S MISS	S MISS×6	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
18	5-13	S MISS	S MISS×6	Attack err	Jada Constanza		+0.1
19	6-13	S MISS	JACKST	Kill	Shelby Zanders	set Naija Gadis	+0.0
20	6-14	JACKST	S MISS	Attack err	Jayla David		+0.0
21	7-14	S MISS	JACKST	Attack err	Sadie McAda	blk Ryleigh Davis, Kyra Dove	+0.0
22	7-15	JACKST	S MISS×3	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
23	7-16	S MISS	S MISS×3	Kill	Tarah Yunes	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
24	7-17	S MISS	S MISS×3	Attack err	Mackenzie Moore		+0.0
25	8-17	S MISS	JACKST	Attack err	Emily Davis	blk Mackenzie Moore, Kyra Dove	+0.0
26	9-17	JACKST	JACKST	Kill	Sophia McKenzie	set Giannelle Asomani	+0.0
27	9-18	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Emily Davis	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
28	10-18	S MISS	JACKST×4	Kill	Hope Briggs	set Kayla Troutman	+0.0
29	11-18	JACKST	JACKST×4	Attack err	Sophie Sosa		+0.0
30	12-18	JACKST	JACKST×4	Attack err	Tarah Yunes		+0.0
31	13-18	JACKST	JACKST×4	Attack err	Emily Davis		+0.1
32	13-19	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Tarah Yunes	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
33	14-19	S MISS	JACKST	Attack err	Sophie Sosa	blk Shelby Zanders, Sophia McKenzie	+0.1
34	14-20	JACKST	S MISS	Attack err	Sophia McKenzie		+0.1
35	15-20	S MISS	JACKST	Serve err	S MISS server		+0.1
36	16-20	JACKST	JACKST	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+0.1
37	16-21	JACKST	S MISS×4	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1
38	16-22	S MISS	S MISS×4	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Kaylee Lowther	+0.1
39	16-23	S MISS	S MISS×4	Kill	Sadie McAda	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
40	16-24	S MISS	S MISS×4	Kill	Allie Hazelwood	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.0
41	17-24	S MISS	JACKST×4	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+0.0
42	18-24	JACKST	JACKST×4	Attack err	Maggie Sewell	blk Kyra Dove, Ryleigh Davis	+0.0
43	19-24	JACKST	JACKST×4	Attack err	Sadie McAda		+0.0
44	20-24	JACKST	JACKST×4	Attack err	Sadie McAda	blk Ryleigh Davis, Kyra Dove	+0.0
45	20-25	JACKST	S MISS	Kill	Maggie Sewell	set Allie Hazelwood	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Jackson St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.