FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayMVC

3:0

HomeBIG-SOUTH

Drake def. Radford 3–0

(25-19, 25-20, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
DRAKE	25	25	25	3
RADFRD	19	20	21	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

RADFRD above 50 · DRAKE below

Biggest swing: 3.8% to Drake — set 2, DRAKE 20-19 RADFRD. Kill by Bliss Beck. RADFRD win probability 19% → 15%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

DRAKE 69.5%30.5% RADFRD

Drake wins

3-0

22.9%

3-1

26.7%

3-2

19.9%

Radford wins

3-0

5.8%

3-1

10.7%

3-2

13.9%

DRAKE break %: 44.7% vs this opp
RADFRD break %: 40.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Bliss BeckKill+3.8%
Kill by Bliss Beck
Set 2 · DRAKE 20-19 RADFRD · DRAKE 81% → 85%
02
DRAKE serverAce+3.6%
Drake ace on Addison Cunnagin
Set 2 · DRAKE 19-19 RADFRD · DRAKE 77% → 81%
03
Caroline SmithAttack error+3.6%
Attack error by Caroline Smith
Set 2 · DRAKE 17-19 RADFRD · RADFRD 22% → 25%
04
DRAKE serverAce+3.6%
Drake ace on Mia Jannazzo
Set 2 · DRAKE 21-19 RADFRD · DRAKE 85% → 88%
05
Taryn RobertsKill+3.1%
Kill by Taryn Roberts
Set 1 · DRAKE 11-12 RADFRD · RADFRD 31% → 34%
06
Shay McMillenKill+3.0%
Kill by Shay McMillen (set by Jasmine Dulan)
Set 1 · DRAKE 13-12 RADFRD · DRAKE 68% → 71%
07
DRAKE serverAce+3.0%
Drake ace on Addison Cunnagin
Set 2 · DRAKE 23-20 RADFRD · DRAKE 89% → 92%
08
Lisa MelencianoKill+2.9%
Kill by Lisa Melenciano (set by Katie Quick)
Set 2 · DRAKE 22-20 RADFRD · DRAKE 86% → 89%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Drakeaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Shay McMillenOH	3	11	1	19	.526	0	3	4	5	1	0	0	0	14
6Bliss BeckMB	3	9	1	14	.571	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	1.5	10.5
5Caroline SmithOH	3	9	3	26	.231	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	9
13Lisa MelencianoOH	3	6	4	19	.105	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
4Aniyah DavisOH	3	6	2	12	.333	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6
2Katie QuickS	3	0	0	0	–	19	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	1
23Kamryn BehrnsOH	3	6	1	20	.250	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6
3Jasmine DulanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	4	1	23	1	0	0	0	4
11Carolyn MaserS	3	0	0	0	–	19	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
1Bella FariaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	0	0
24Finley SchelhaasL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	12	110	.318	44	9	7	53	4	1	2	2	75

Radfordhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
18Taryn RobertsMB	3	11	0	17	.647	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	12
24Aubrey HatchOH	3	7	1	25	.240	0	1	0	10	0	2	1	9
9Addison CunnaginOH	3	6	2	20	.200	1	0	2	3	3	0	0	6
25Maja BochenekMB	3	4	2	12	.167	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	5.5
2Macie PotterOH	3	4	3	28	.036	3	0	2	4	3	2	1	5
22Lea GageS	3	4	0	10	.400	27	0	1	4	0	0	0	4
7Rose WhitemountainDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	0	1	0	0	2
1Mia JannazzoOH	3	0	0	1	.000	2	1	1	20	1	0	0	1
10Katrina MillerOH	1	0	1	5	-.200	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		36	9	118	.229	33	4	7	43	9	10	5	60

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 DRAKE · RADFRD 6

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 5 DRAKERADFRD 4

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 4 DRAKERADFRD 3

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 7 DRAKERADFRD 6

Bars above the line = Radford leads, below = Drake leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Drake

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	50%6/12
2	50%7/14	53%8/15
3	70%7/10	59%10/17
4	83%5/6	67%10/15
5	56%5/9	44%4/9
6	42%5/12	17%1/6
All	59%36/61	53%39/74

Radford

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	54%7/13
2	39%7/18	46%6/13
3	33%6/18	42%5/12
4	45%5/11	33%3/9
5	56%5/9	17%1/6
6	100%5/5	38%3/8
All	47%35/74	41%25/61

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

135 rallies

Rally log

#	DRAKE-RADFRD	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	DRAKE	RADFRD	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano		+1.7
2	0-2	RADFRD	RADFRD	Kill	Taryn Roberts		+2.3
3	1-2	RADFRD	DRAKE×5	Serve err	RADFRD server		+1.6
4	2-2	DRAKE	DRAKE×5	Kill	Aniyah Davis	set Katie Quick	+2.2
5	3-2	DRAKE	DRAKE×5	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Macie Potter	+2.2
6	4-2	DRAKE	DRAKE×5	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Addison Cunnagin	+2.1
7	5-2	DRAKE	DRAKE×5	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+1.9
8	5-3	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Taryn Roberts	set Lea Gage	+1.4
9	6-3	RADFRD	DRAKE	Serve err	RADFRD server		+1.5
10	6-4	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Addison Cunnagin	set Mia Jannazzo	+1.4
11	7-4	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+1.5
12	7-5	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Lea Gage	set Macie Potter	+1.4
13	8-5	RADFRD	DRAKE×3	Serve err	RADFRD server		+1.5
14	9-5	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Carolyn Maser	+1.8
15	10-5	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Bad set	Lea Gage		+1.5
16	10-6	DRAKE	RADFRD×4	Kill	Maja Bochenek	set Lea Gage	+1.0
17	10-7	RADFRD	RADFRD×4	Kill	Taryn Roberts	set Lea Gage	+1.7
18	10-8	RADFRD	RADFRD×4	Ace	RADFRD server	aced Bella Faria	+2.0
19	10-9	RADFRD	RADFRD×4	Ace	RADFRD server	aced Bella Faria	+2.4
20	11-9	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Carolyn Maser	+1.9
21	11-10	DRAKE	RADFRD×3	Kill	Macie Potter	set Lea Gage	+1.9
22	11-11	RADFRD	RADFRD×3	Kill	Taryn Roberts	set Lea Gage	+2.8
23	11-12	RADFRD	RADFRD×3	Kill	Taryn Roberts		+3.1
24	12-12	RADFRD	DRAKE×3	Kill	Aniyah Davis	set Carolyn Maser	+2.2
25	13-12	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Jasmine Dulan	+3.0
26	14-12	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Macie Potter	+2.8
27	14-13	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Aubrey Hatch	set Lea Gage	+2.0
28	15-13	RADFRD	DRAKE×3	Attack err	Addison Cunnagin		+2.2
29	16-13	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+2.6
30	17-13	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Aniyah Davis	set Katie Quick	+2.1
31	17-14	DRAKE	RADFRD	Serve err	DRAKE server		+1.3
32	17-15	RADFRD	RADFRD	Kill	Aubrey Hatch	set Lea Gage	+2.3
33	18-15	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Jasmine Dulan	+2.1
34	18-16	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Maja Bochenek	set Lea Gage	+1.8
35	19-16	RADFRD	DRAKE×3	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+2.2
36	20-16	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Carolyn Maser	+2.3
37	21-16	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Carolyn Maser	+1.5
38	21-17	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Addison Cunnagin	set Lea Gage	+0.7
39	22-17	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+1.0
40	23-17	DRAKE	DRAKE	Attack err	Macie Potter		+0.7
41	23-18	DRAKE	RADFRD	Serve err	DRAKE server		+0.2
42	24-18	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+0.3
43	24-19	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Macie Potter	set Lea Gage	+0.1
44	25-19	RADFRD	DRAKE	Attack err	Macie Potter		+0.2
Set 2
1	1-0	RADFRD	DRAKE	Serve err	RADFRD server		+1.3
2	1-1	DRAKE	RADFRD×3	Kill	Addison Cunnagin	set Lea Gage	+1.3
3	1-2	RADFRD	RADFRD×3	Kill	Macie Potter	set Katie Quick	+1.9
4	1-3	RADFRD	RADFRD×3	Attack err	Caroline Smith		+2.0
5	2-3	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Aniyah Davis	set Katie Quick	+1.4
6	2-4	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Taryn Roberts	set Lea Gage	+1.5
7	2-5	RADFRD	RADFRD	Kill	Aubrey Hatch	set Macie Potter	+2.1
8	3-5	RADFRD	DRAKE	Bad set	Lea Gage		+1.4
9	4-5	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Addison Cunnagin	+2.0
10	4-6	DRAKE	RADFRD	Attack err	Kamryn Behrns		+1.6
11	5-6	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+1.5
12	5-7	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Lea Gage	set Mia Jannazzo	+1.7
13	5-8	RADFRD	RADFRD	Bad set	Bella Faria		+2.2
14	6-8	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+1.5
15	7-8	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Carolyn Maser	+2.1
16	7-9	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Addison Cunnagin	set Lea Gage	+1.8
17	8-9	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Aniyah Davis	set Carolyn Maser	+1.6
18	8-10	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Addison Cunnagin	set Lea Gage	+1.8
19	9-10	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+1.7
20	9-11	DRAKE	RADFRD	Serve err	DRAKE server		+1.9
21	10-11	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+1.7
22	10-12	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Aubrey Hatch	set Lea Gage	+1.9
23	11-12	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Katie Quick	+1.8
24	12-12	DRAKE	DRAKE	Attack err	Katrina Miller		+2.5
25	12-13	DRAKE	RADFRD	Attack err	Caroline Smith	blk Maja Bochenek, Aubrey Hatch	+2.0
26	12-14	RADFRD	RADFRD	Attack err	Bliss Beck	blk Katrina Miller, Maja Bochenek	+2.8
27	13-14	RADFRD	DRAKE	Bad set	Lea Gage		+1.9
28	14-14	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Carolyn Maser	+2.7
29	14-15	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Maja Bochenek	set Lea Gage	+2.2
30	15-15	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Carolyn Maser	+2.1
31	15-16	DRAKE	RADFRD	Serve err	DRAKE server		+2.3
32	16-16	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+2.2
33	16-17	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Addison Cunnagin	set Lea Gage	+2.5
34	17-17	RADFRD	DRAKE	Attack err	Addison Cunnagin		+2.3
35	17-18	DRAKE	RADFRD	Serve err	DRAKE server		+2.6
36	17-19	RADFRD	RADFRD	Attack err	Caroline Smith		+3.6
37	18-19	RADFRD	DRAKE×4	Serve err	RADFRD server		+2.3
38	19-19	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Addison Cunnagin	+3.6
39	20-19	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Bliss Beck		+3.8
40	21-19	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Mia Jannazzo	+3.6
41	21-20	DRAKE	RADFRD	Serve err	DRAKE server		+2.3
42	22-20	RADFRD	DRAKE×4	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+2.9
43	23-20	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Addison Cunnagin	+3.0
44	24-20	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+1.6
45	25-20	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Bliss Beck		+0.5
Set 3
1	1-0	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Katie Quick	+1.0
2	1-1	DRAKE	RADFRD×3	Kill	Taryn Roberts	set Lea Gage	+0.7
3	1-2	RADFRD	RADFRD×3	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano	blk Macie Potter, Taryn Roberts	+1.1
4	1-3	RADFRD	RADFRD×3	Kill	Taryn Roberts	set Lea Gage	+1.1
5	2-3	RADFRD	DRAKE×3	Serve err	RADFRD server		+0.8
6	3-3	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Team	+1.1
7	4-3	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Jasmine Dulan	+1.0
8	4-4	DRAKE	RADFRD×4	Serve err	DRAKE server		+0.8
9	4-5	RADFRD	RADFRD×4	Kill	Aubrey Hatch	set Lea Gage	+1.1
10	4-6	RADFRD	RADFRD×4	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano		+1.2
11	4-7	RADFRD	RADFRD×4	Ace	RADFRD server	aced Jasmine Dulan	+1.2
12	5-7	RADFRD	DRAKE×7	Kill	Aniyah Davis	set Katie Quick	+0.8
13	6-7	DRAKE	DRAKE×7	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Jasmine Dulan	+1.1
14	7-7	DRAKE	DRAKE×7	Attack err	Maja Bochenek	blk Bliss Beck, Lisa Melenciano	+1.2
15	8-7	DRAKE	DRAKE×7	Attack err	Macie Potter		+1.2
16	9-7	DRAKE	DRAKE×7	Attack err	Aubrey Hatch		+1.1
17	10-7	DRAKE	DRAKE×7	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Macie Potter	+1.0
18	11-7	DRAKE	DRAKE×7	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Rose Whitemountain	+0.9
19	11-8	DRAKE	RADFRD×3	Kill	Macie Potter	set Lea Gage	+0.6
20	11-9	RADFRD	RADFRD×3	Ace	RADFRD server	aced Shay McMillen	+0.9
21	11-10	RADFRD	RADFRD×3	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano	blk Macie Potter, Maja Bochenek	+1.1
22	12-10	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Katie Quick	+0.9
23	12-11	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Maja Bochenek	set Lea Gage	+0.9
24	13-11	RADFRD	DRAKE	Serve err	RADFRD server		+0.9
25	13-12	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Lea Gage	set Addison Cunnagin	+0.9
26	14-12	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+1.0
27	14-13	DRAKE	RADFRD×6	Kill	Lea Gage	set Macie Potter	+0.9
28	14-14	RADFRD	RADFRD×6	Attack err	Aniyah Davis		+1.5
29	14-15	RADFRD	RADFRD×6	Attack err	Shay McMillen	blk Aubrey Hatch, Taryn Roberts	+1.6
30	14-16	RADFRD	RADFRD×6	Kill	Taryn Roberts	set Lea Gage	+1.7
31	14-17	RADFRD	RADFRD×6	Attack err	Aniyah Davis		+1.6
32	14-18	RADFRD	RADFRD×6	Kill	Aubrey Hatch	set Lea Gage	+1.4
33	15-18	RADFRD	DRAKE×4	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+0.8
34	16-18	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Katie Quick	+1.4
35	17-18	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Katie Quick	+1.7
36	18-18	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Katie Quick	+1.9
37	18-19	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Taryn Roberts	set Lea Gage	+1.6
38	19-19	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Katie Quick	+1.5
39	19-20	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Taryn Roberts	set Lea Gage	+1.7
40	20-20	RADFRD	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Jasmine Dulan	+1.6
41	21-20	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Jasmine Dulan	+2.3
42	21-21	DRAKE	RADFRD	Kill	Aubrey Hatch	set Lea Gage	+1.8
43	22-21	RADFRD	DRAKE×4	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+2.0
44	23-21	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+2.4
45	24-21	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+1.6
46	25-21	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Attack err	Maja Bochenek	blk Bliss Beck	+0.6

Score shown after each rally, Drake first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.