Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Drake def. Illinois St. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Illinois St. 66.1% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Drake won at Illinois St. 3-2 (20-25, 25-20, 25-15, 13-25, 15-12) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Drake's Kamryn Behrns led with 14 kills.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set12345Sets
DRAKE20252513153
ILL ST25201525122

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Matthea Dalton served 4 aces, and Drake needed every one.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Drake's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Illinois St. went in at 66% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Drake 4–8 Illinois St.

    Drake's low point. Drake then won 21 of the next 33 rallies and the set 25–20.

    Drake 12% → 37%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Drake 5–4 Illinois St.

    Up 5–4, Drake scored 4 straight to make it 9–4.

    Drake 55% → 89%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Drake 12–11 Illinois St.

    Drake won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 15–12 and win the match 3–2.

    Drake 66% → >99%

Illinois St. above 50Drake belowMax swing 16.8%

DrakeIllinois St.

Sideout %
Drake 54.1·Illinois St. 53.6
Break %
Drake 46.4·Illinois St. 45.9
Hitting
Drake .195·Illinois St. .196
Longest run
Drake 10·Illinois St. 9

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Illinois St. above 50 · Drake below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+16.8% DRAKErally 195 · set 5

Biggest swing: 16.8% to Drake — set 5, DRAKE 14-12 ILL ST. Attack error by Jillian Gregory. ILL ST win probability 30% → 13%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DRAKE 31.0%69.0% ILL ST

Drake wins

3-0
6.0%
3-1
10.9%
3-2
14.1%

Illinois St. wins

3-0
22.6%
3-1
26.5%
3-2
19.9%
DRAKE break %
42.0% vs this opp
ILL ST break %
45.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Jillian GregoryAttack error+16.8%

    Attack error by Jillian Gregory

    Set 5 · DRAKE 14-12 ILL ST · DRAKE 70% → 87%

  2. 02
    Illinois St.Service error+14.3%

    Illinois St. service error

    Set 5 · DRAKE 13-11 ILL ST · DRAKE 66% → 80%

  3. 03
    Matthea DaltonKill+13.2%

    Kill by Matthea Dalton (set by Carolyn Maser)

    Set 5 · DRAKE 15-12 ILL ST · DRAKE 87% → 100%

  4. 04
    Illinois St.Service error+12.6%

    Illinois St. service error

    Set 5 · DRAKE 12-10 ILL ST · DRAKE 63% → 76%

  5. 05

    Lisa Melenciano stuffed by Oliwia Caputa & Abby Reck

    Set 5 · DRAKE 11-10 ILL ST · ILL ST 25% → 37%

  6. 06
    Jillian GregoryKill+10.1%

    Kill by Jillian Gregory (set by Ella Craggs)

    Set 5 · DRAKE 13-12 ILL ST · ILL ST 20% → 30%

  7. 07
    Matthea DaltonKill+10.1%

    Kill by Matthea Dalton (set by Katie Quick)

    Set 5 · DRAKE 7-4 ILL ST · DRAKE 63% → 73%

  8. 08
    Ruth ZieglerKill+9.8%

    Kill by Ruth Ziegler (set by Ella Craggs)

    Set 5 · DRAKE 12-11 ILL ST · ILL ST 24% → 34%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Drakeaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
58236.167141222031.513.5
512735.14300040010.512.5
54112.25000010111.55.5
53110.200002200425
5203.6672111700003
2048-.500100200000
514130.43300060010.514.5
5003.0002021800002
51011.0002142230002
46420.100002100006
4000–001210000
4000–100330000
11011.000000000001
Team totals5120159.195468128010110698
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
512428.28602520031.515.5
514444.2270121000015
511734.118114202010.512.5
54014.286000000215
5000–26111400001
38319.263000100219
5104.2504512310006
5103.3331502200001
5000–000410000
32211.00000020010.52.5
3125-.20000010031.52.5
3000–200620000
2106.167000000212
1000–200100000
1000–100000000
Team totals5522168.196511015778014797

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 10 DRAKE · ILL ST 9

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 3 DRAKEILL ST 4

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 6 DRAKEILL ST 4

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 10 DRAKEILL ST 3

Set 4

13-25

Longest run 4 DRAKEILL ST 9

Set 5

15-12

Longest run 4 DRAKEILL ST 3

Bars above the line = Illinois St. leads, below = Drake leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Drake

SlotSideout %Break %
1
41%11/27
50%9/18
2
58%11/19
45%9/20
3
77%10/13
23%3/13
4
39%7/18
64%14/22
5
70%7/10
50%7/14
6
64%7/11
30%3/10
All
54%53/98
46%45/97

Illinois St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%11/19
50%9/18
2
58%11/19
59%16/27
3
36%8/22
8%1/12
4
53%8/15
53%9/17
5
70%7/10
50%7/14
6
58%7/12
30%3/10
All
54%52/97
46%45/98

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

195 rallies

#DRAKE-ILL STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1ILL STILL STAttack errIsabelle Kremer+2.2
21-1ILL STDRAKEKillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick+1.7
32-1DRAKEDRAKEAttack errRuth Ziegler+2.3
42-2DRAKEILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.8
52-3ILL STILL STKillLogan Grevengoed+2.3
63-3ILL STDRAKEServe errIllinois St.+1.8
73-4DRAKEILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Ella Craggs+1.8
84-4ILL STDRAKEKillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick+1.8
95-4DRAKEDRAKEKillKamryn Behrnsset Carolyn Maser+2.5
105-5DRAKEILL ST×4Serve errDrake+1.9
115-6ILL STILL ST×4Attack errKamryn Behrns+2.4
125-7ILL STILL ST×4BlockedIsabelle Kremerblk Logan Grevengoed, Addisyn Pohl+2.3
135-8ILL STILL ST×4Attack errIsabelle Kremer+2.2
146-8ILL STDRAKEServe errIllinois St.+1.6
157-8DRAKEDRAKEBlockedLogan Grevengoedblk Matthea Dalton, Bliss Beck+2.4
167-9DRAKEILL ST×3KillJillian Gregoryset Audrey Clark+1.9
177-10ILL STILL ST×3KillSamantha Bunchset Carolyn Maser+2.3
187-11ILL STILL ST×3BlockedMatthea Daltonblk Addisyn Pohl, Ruth Ziegler+2.0
198-11ILL STDRAKEKillBliss Beckset Carolyn Maser+1.4
208-12DRAKEILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Audrey Clark+1.6
219-12ILL STDRAKEServe errIllinois St.+1.4
229-13DRAKEILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+1.6
239-14ILL STILL STAceIllinois St.aced Bella Faria+1.7
2410-14ILL STDRAKEAttack errRuth Ziegler+1.1
2510-15DRAKEILL ST×3KillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+1.3
2610-16ILL STILL ST×3AceIllinois St.aced Jasmine Dulan+1.3
2710-17ILL STILL ST×3KillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+0.9
2811-17ILL STDRAKEServe errIllinois St.+0.5
2911-18DRAKEILL STServe errDrake+0.7
3012-18ILL STDRAKE×3KillKatie Quickset Isabelle Kremer+0.4
3113-18DRAKEDRAKE×3KillKamryn Behrnsset Carolyn Maser+0.9
3214-18DRAKEDRAKE×3Attack errAddisyn Pohl+1.3
3314-19DRAKEILL ST×3KillLogan Grevengoedset Audrey Clark+1.3
3414-20ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Gregory+1.1
3514-21ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Gregoryset Audrey Clark+0.6
3615-21ILL STDRAKEServe errIllinois St.+0.3
3716-21DRAKEDRAKEKillKamryn Behrnsset Carolyn Maser+0.6
3816-22DRAKEILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Audrey Clark+0.7
3917-22ILL STDRAKEKillMatthea Daltonset Carolyn Maser+0.3
4018-22DRAKEDRAKEKillAniyah Davis+0.8
4118-23DRAKEILL STServe errDrake+1.0
4218-24ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+0.5
4319-24ILL STDRAKEKillKamryn Behrnsset Carolyn Maser+0.1
4420-24DRAKEDRAKEAttack errJillian Gregory+0.3
4520-25DRAKEILL STAttack errLisa Melenciano+0.5
Set 2
11-0DRAKEDRAKEKillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick+2.0
21-1DRAKEILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+1.5
31-2ILL STILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Peyton Turner+1.9
42-2ILL STDRAKEServe errIllinois St.+1.5
52-3DRAKEILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Ella Craggs+1.5
63-3ILL STDRAKEKillMatthea Daltonset Audrey Clark+1.5
73-4DRAKEILL STBlockedIsabelle Kremerblk Addisyn Pohl, Logan Grevengoed+1.5
84-4ILL STDRAKEKillBliss Beckset Katie Quick+1.6
94-5DRAKEILL ST×4KillLogan Grevengoedset Audrey Clark+1.6
104-6ILL STILL ST×4AceIllinois St.aced Jasmine Dulan+2.0
114-7ILL STILL ST×4KillRuth Zieglerset Audrey Clark+1.8
124-8ILL STILL ST×4KillRuth Zieglerset Audrey Clark+1.6
135-8ILL STDRAKEKillKamryn Behrnsset Carolyn Maser+1.2
146-8DRAKEDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Carolyn Maser+1.8
156-9DRAKEILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Audrey Clark+1.5
167-9ILL STDRAKEKillKamryn Behrnsset Carolyn Maser+1.4
177-10DRAKEILL STServe errDrake+1.5
188-10ILL STDRAKEBlockedOliwia Caputablk Kamryn Behrns, Aniyah Davis+1.4
198-11DRAKEILL STAttack errLisa Melenciano+1.5
209-11ILL STDRAKE×6KillAniyah Davisset Katie Quick+1.5
2110-11DRAKEDRAKE×6Attack errLogan Grevengoed+2.2
2211-11DRAKEDRAKE×6BlockedOliwia Caputablk Lisa Melenciano, Aniyah Davis+2.5
2312-11DRAKEDRAKE×6AceDrake+2.7
2413-11DRAKEDRAKE×6AceDrake+2.8
2514-11DRAKEDRAKE×6AceDrakeaced Peyton Turner+2.7
2614-12DRAKEILL STAttack errLisa Melenciano+1.8
2715-12ILL STDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+2.2
2816-12DRAKEDRAKEBad setAudrey Clark+2.6
2916-13DRAKEILL STKillAddisyn Pohlset Audrey Clark+1.6
3016-14ILL STILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Audrey Clark+2.5
3117-14ILL STDRAKEKillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick+2.4
3218-14DRAKEDRAKEAceDrakeaced Samantha Bunch+2.7
3318-15DRAKEILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Audrey Clark+1.6
3419-15ILL STDRAKEKillKamryn Behrnsset Carolyn Maser+2.2
3519-16DRAKEILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Audrey Clark+1.5
3620-16ILL STDRAKEKillBliss Beckset Carolyn Maser+2.2
3721-16DRAKEDRAKEAceDrakeaced Oliwia Caputa+2.1
3821-17DRAKEILL STServe errDrake+0.9
3921-18ILL STILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.8
4022-18ILL STDRAKEKillKamryn Behrnsset Carolyn Maser+2.2
4123-18DRAKEDRAKEKillMatthea Daltonset Katie Quick+1.7
4223-19DRAKEILL STServe errDrake+0.5
4324-19ILL STDRAKEKillKatie Quickset Jasmine Dulan+1.1
4424-20DRAKEILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+0.3
4525-20ILL STDRAKEKillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick+0.6
Set 3
10-1ILL STILL ST×3BlockedLisa Melencianoblk Ruth Ziegler, Abby Reck+3.0
20-2ILL STILL ST×3Attack errAniyah Davis+2.9
30-3ILL STILL ST×3KillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+2.7
41-3ILL STDRAKEServe errIllinois St.+2.0
52-3DRAKEDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+2.9
62-4DRAKEILL ST×3KillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+2.3
72-5ILL STILL ST×3AceIllinois St.aced Matthea Dalton+2.8
82-6ILL STILL ST×3KillOliwia Caputaset Peyton Turner+2.5
93-6ILL STDRAKEServe errIllinois St.+1.8
103-7DRAKEILL STServe errDrake+2.0
114-7ILL STDRAKE×10Attack errLogan Grevengoed+1.8
125-7DRAKEDRAKE×10Attack errJillian Ferrill+2.8
136-7DRAKEDRAKE×10AceDrakeaced Peyton Turner+3.2
147-7DRAKEDRAKE×10BlockedAddisyn Pohlblk Bliss Beck+3.5
158-7DRAKEDRAKE×10KillBliss Beck+3.8
169-7DRAKEDRAKE×10Attack errOliwia Caputa+3.9
1710-7DRAKEDRAKE×10Attack errJillian Ferrill+3.9
1811-7DRAKEDRAKE×10KillShay McMillenset Carolyn Maser+3.7
1912-7DRAKEDRAKE×10Attack errOliwia Caputa+3.3
2013-7DRAKEDRAKE×10Attack errOliwia Caputa+2.9
2113-8DRAKEILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Kohnen+1.7
2213-9ILL STILL STAttack errBliss Beck+2.7
2314-9ILL STDRAKEServe errIllinois St.+2.7
2415-9DRAKEDRAKEKillKamryn Behrnsset Carolyn Maser+2.9
2515-10DRAKEILL STServe errDrake+1.6
2616-10ILL STDRAKEAttack errRuth Ziegler+2.2
2717-10DRAKEDRAKEAttack errJillian Gregory+2.1
2817-11DRAKEILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+1.1
2918-11ILL STDRAKE×4KillKamryn Behrnsset Carolyn Maser+1.6
3019-11DRAKEDRAKE×4KillLisa Melencianoset Finley Schelhaas+1.3
3120-11DRAKEDRAKE×4KillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick+0.8
3221-11DRAKEDRAKE×4KillJasmine Dulanset Ella Craggs+0.4
3321-12DRAKEILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Samantha Bunch+0.1
3422-12ILL STDRAKEKillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick+0.2
3522-13DRAKEILL STServe errDrake+0.1
3622-14ILL STILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Emilija Arsic+0.2
3723-14ILL STDRAKEKillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick+0.2
3824-14DRAKEDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+0.1
3924-15DRAKEILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs·
4025-15ILL STDRAKEKillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick·
Set 4
10-1DRAKEILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+2.7
21-1ILL STDRAKEServe errIllinois St.+2.8
31-2DRAKEILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+2.8
41-3ILL STILL STAttack errLisa Melenciano+3.5
52-3ILL STDRAKEServe errIllinois St.+2.7
62-4DRAKEILL STKillAudrey Clarkset Oliwia Caputa+2.7
73-4ILL STDRAKEKillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick+2.7
83-5DRAKEILL ST×3KillOliwia Caputaset Samantha Bunch+2.8
93-6ILL STILL ST×3Attack errShay McMillen+3.4
103-7ILL STILL ST×3BlockedShay McMillenblk Ruth Ziegler, Sidney Wright+3.0
114-7ILL STDRAKEKillKamryn Behrnsset Carolyn Maser+2.2
124-8DRAKEILL STServe errDrake+2.4
134-9ILL STILL STAceIllinois St.aced Finley Schelhaas+2.7
145-9ILL STDRAKEKillKamryn Behrnsset Carolyn Maser+1.8
155-10DRAKEILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+2.1
165-11ILL STILL STAceIllinois St.+2.2
176-11ILL STDRAKE×4KillKamryn Behrnsset Carolyn Maser+1.4
187-11DRAKEDRAKE×4KillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick+2.3
198-11DRAKEDRAKE×4Attack errOliwia Caputa+2.9
209-11DRAKEDRAKE×4KillAniyah Davisset Katie Quick+3.5
219-12DRAKEILL ST×9KillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+3.0
229-13ILL STILL ST×9AceIllinois St.aced Finley Schelhaas+3.4
239-14ILL STILL ST×9AceIllinois St.aced Finley Schelhaas+2.8
249-15ILL STILL ST×9KillJillian Gregoryset Samantha Bunch+2.2
259-16ILL STILL ST×9Attack errLisa Melenciano+1.6
269-17ILL STILL ST×9KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Craggs+1.0
279-18ILL STILL ST×9KillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+0.6
289-19ILL STILL ST×9KillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+0.3
299-20ILL STILL ST×9AceIllinois St.aced Jasmine Dulan+0.2
3010-20ILL STDRAKEBlockedJillian Gregoryblk Matthea Dalton, Aniyah Davis+0.1
3111-20DRAKEDRAKEAceDrakeaced Oliwia Caputa+0.1
3211-21DRAKEILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+0.2
3312-21ILL STDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Matthea Dalton+0.1
3412-22DRAKEILL ST×3Serve errDrake+0.1
3512-23ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Audrey Clark·
3612-24ILL STILL ST×3KillOliwia Caputa·
3713-24ILL STDRAKEServe errIllinois St.·
3813-25DRAKEILL STAttack errShay McMillen+0.9
Set 5
11-0ILL STDRAKEServe errIllinois St.+6.7
22-0DRAKEDRAKEKillKamryn Behrnsset Carolyn Maser+8.9
32-1DRAKEILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+6.3
42-2ILL STILL STAceIllinois St.aced Matthea Dalton+8.7
53-2ILL STDRAKEKillMatthea Daltonset Carolyn Maser+7.2
64-2DRAKEDRAKEKillMatthea Daltonset Jasmine Dulan+9.6
74-3DRAKEILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Samantha Bunch+6.8
85-3ILL STDRAKEServe errIllinois St.+7.8
95-4DRAKEILL STServe errDrake+7.0
106-4ILL STDRAKE×4Attack errOliwia Caputa+8.2
117-4DRAKEDRAKE×4KillMatthea Daltonset Katie Quick+10.1
128-4DRAKEDRAKE×4KillMatthea Daltonset Katie Quick+8.9
139-4DRAKEDRAKE×4AceDrakeaced Ellie Burr+7.2
149-5DRAKEILL STBlockedMatthea Daltonblk Jillian Ferrill, Sidney Wright+3.7
1510-5ILL STDRAKEBlockedRuth Zieglerblk Aniyah Davis, Matthea Dalton+5.5
1610-6DRAKEILL STKillSidney Wrightset Audrey Clark+3.4
1710-7ILL STILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+6.4
1811-7ILL STDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+7.3
1911-8DRAKEILL ST×3KillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+4.7
2011-9ILL STILL ST×3Attack errShay McMillen+8.8
2111-10ILL STILL ST×3BlockedLisa Melencianoblk Oliwia Caputa, Abby Reck+12.1
2212-10ILL STDRAKEServe errIllinois St.+12.6
2312-11DRAKEILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+9.8
2413-11ILL STDRAKEServe errIllinois St.+14.3
2513-12DRAKEILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+10.1
2614-12ILL STDRAKEAttack errJillian Gregory+16.8
2715-12DRAKEDRAKEKillMatthea Daltonset Carolyn Maser+13.2

Score shown after each rally, Drake first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).