Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Drake def. Bradley 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Drake 51.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Drake beat visiting Bradley 3-2 (22-25, 25-19, 25-20, 21-25, 15-12) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Drake's Caroline Smith led with 24 kills, and Jasmine Dulan added 27 digs.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set12345Sets
BRAD25192025122
DRAKE22252521153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

27 digs from Jasmine Dulan kept Drake alive against Bradley.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Drake's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Drake at 52%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Bradley 4–4 Drake

    4 straight Drake points broke a 4–4 tie and made it 8–4.

    Drake 52% → 86%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Bradley 4–8 Drake

    Bradley scored 4 straight to erase a 4–8 deficit and tie it at 8.

    Drake 86% → 52%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Bradley 11–12 Drake

    Drake won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 15–12 and win the match 3–2.

    Drake 70% → >99%

Drake above 50Bradley belowMax swing 15.2%

BradleyDrake

Sideout %
Bradley 55.6·Drake 59.4
Break %
Bradley 40.6·Drake 44.4
Hitting
Bradley .209·Drake .201
Longest run
Bradley 4·Drake 8

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Drake above 50 · Bradley below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+15.2% DRAKErally 209 · set 5

Biggest swing: 15.2% to Drake — set 5, BRAD 12-14 DRAKE. Kill by Caroline Smith (set by Jasmine Dulan). DRAKE win probability 73% → 89%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BRAD 45.6%54.4% DRAKE

Bradley wins

3-0
10.7%
3-1
16.9%
3-2
17.9%

Drake wins

3-0
14.4%
3-1
20.6%
3-2
19.4%
BRAD break %
42.7% vs this opp
DRAKE break %
43.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Caroline SmithKill+15.2%

    Kill by Caroline Smith (set by Jasmine Dulan)

    Set 5 · BRAD 12-14 DRAKE · DRAKE 73% → 89%

  2. 02
    Maren OuelletteAttack error+13.6%

    Attack error by Maren Ouellette

    Set 5 · BRAD 9-11 DRAKE · DRAKE 63% → 76%

  3. 03
    Caroline SmithKill+13.0%

    Kill by Caroline Smith (set by Katie Quick)

    Set 5 · BRAD 11-13 DRAKE · DRAKE 70% → 83%

  4. 04
    Maren OuelletteKill+11.7%

    Kill by Maren Ouellette (set by Eirini Bitsaktsi)

    Set 5 · BRAD 8-8 DRAKE · BRAD 36% → 48%

  5. 05
    Caroline SmithKill+11.5%

    Kill by Caroline Smith (set by Katie Quick)

    Set 5 · BRAD 10-12 DRAKE · DRAKE 68% → 79%

  6. 06
    Shay McMillenKill+11.3%

    Kill by Shay McMillen (set by Maria Drapp)

    Set 5 · BRAD 12-15 DRAKE · DRAKE 89% → 100%

  7. 07
    Shay McMillenKill+10.6%

    Kill by Shay McMillen (set by Katie Quick)

    Set 5 · BRAD 9-10 DRAKE · DRAKE 52% → 63%

  8. 08

    Lisa Melenciano stuffed by Chloe Parker & Maren Ouellette

    Set 5 · BRAD 7-8 DRAKE · BRAD 26% → 36%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
524462.32310110112226
515733.24200010010.515.5
510534.14710130031.511.5
55112.3334904170031.56.5
54014.286100000426
3119.00000110052.53.5
5000–241800004
5000–5112920001
5000–001000000
5000–1001200000
32514-.21400001010.52.5
1114.00000000010.51.5
Team totals6224182.2096051081812011101
Drakehome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
524862.25800050111.525.5
57015.467000000429
57219.26310130031.58.5
54627-.074021130010.56.5
5319.22247201600005
24213.154100100004
5000–222810002
5000–6122700001
5000–200400000
414536.2501127302116
1023-.66700010031.51.5
Team totals6326184.20160888551148108

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Bradley vs Drake

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 BRAD · DRAKE 8

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 3 BRADDRAKE 3

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 BRADDRAKE 8

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 BRADDRAKE 4

Set 4

25-21

Longest run 4 BRADDRAKE 3

Set 5

12-15

Longest run 4 BRADDRAKE 4

Bars above the line = Drake leads, below = Bradley leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Bradley

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%13/21
33%5/15
2
48%11/23
41%9/22
3
43%10/23
17%2/12
4
53%10/19
57%13/23
5
73%8/11
47%8/17
6
73%8/11
33%4/12
All
56%60/108
41%41/101

Drake

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%13/21
35%6/17
2
73%11/15
52%12/23
3
53%10/19
42%8/19
4
56%9/16
44%8/18
5
56%9/16
50%9/18
6
57%8/14
38%5/13
All
59%60/101
44%48/108

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

209 rallies

#BRAD-DRAKESrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1DRAKEDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+2.4
20-2DRAKEDRAKEBlockedGracie Furlongblk Caroline Smith+2.4
31-2DRAKEBRADKillAdeline Goedheerset Maria Drapp+1.8
42-2BRADBRADAttack errKamryn Behrns+2.5
52-3BRADDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Jasmine Dulan+1.9
63-3DRAKEBRADKillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+2.0
74-3BRADBRADAttack errKamryn Behrns+2.6
84-4BRADDRAKEKillKatie Quickset Isabelle Kremer+2.0
95-4DRAKEBRAD×3KillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+2.1
106-4BRADBRAD×3AceAva Patchettaced Bella Faria+2.7
117-4BRADBRAD×3BlockedIsabelle Kremerblk Maria Drapp, Dakota Elliott+2.6
127-5BRADDRAKEServe errAva Patchett+1.8
138-5DRAKEBRADKillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+2.0
149-5BRADBRADKillGracie Furlongset Ava Patchett+2.5
159-6BRADDRAKEKillIsabelle Kremerset Katie Quick+1.7
1610-6DRAKEBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+1.9
1710-7BRADDRAKEServe errBradley+1.7
1811-7DRAKEBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.0
1911-8BRADDRAKEServe errBradley+1.7
2011-9DRAKEDRAKEAceDrakeaced Eirini Bitsaktsi+2.6
2112-9DRAKEBRADKillMaria Drappset Maria Drapp+2.3
2212-10BRADDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+2.0
2313-10DRAKEBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+2.3
2413-11BRADDRAKEServe errBradley+2.1
2514-11DRAKEBRADKillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+2.4
2615-11BRADBRADKillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+2.8
2715-12BRADDRAKEKillKamryn Behrnsset Katie Quick+1.8
2816-12DRAKEBRADKillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+2.2
2916-13BRADDRAKEKillIsabelle Kremerset Katie Quick+1.8
3017-13DRAKEBRADBlockedCaroline Smithblk Dakota Elliott, Maria Drapp+2.2
3117-14BRADDRAKE×3Serve errBradley+1.8
3217-15DRAKEDRAKE×3KillAniyah Davisset Katie Quick+3.0
3317-16DRAKEDRAKE×3KillCaroline Smithset Finley Schelhaas+3.6
3418-16DRAKEBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+3.2
3519-16BRADBRADKillChloe Parkerset Eirini Bitsaktsi+3.8
3619-17BRADDRAKEServe errBradley+2.3
3719-18DRAKEDRAKEAceDrakeaced Eirini Bitsaktsi+3.9
3820-18DRAKEBRADAttack errCaroline Smith+3.7
3921-18BRADBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+4.2
4021-19BRADDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+2.3
4121-20DRAKEDRAKEAceDrake+4.3
4222-20DRAKEBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+4.4
4322-21BRADDRAKEKillIsabelle Kremerset Bella Faria+3.5
4423-21DRAKEBRADAttack errBliss Beck+5.0
4524-21BRADBRADBlockedIsabelle Kremerblk Dakota Elliott, Maria Drapp+4.7
4624-22BRADDRAKEKillIsabelle Kremerset Katie Quick+1.5
4725-22DRAKEBRADServe errDrake+3.4
Set 2
11-0BRADBRADKillGracie Furlongset Eirini Bitsaktsi+2.5
21-1BRADDRAKE×3KillKamryn Behrnsset Katie Quick+1.9
31-2DRAKEDRAKE×3AceDrake+2.5
41-3DRAKEDRAKE×3BlockedChloe Parkerblk Aniyah Davis, Shay McMillen+2.5
52-3DRAKEBRAD×3BlockedKamryn Behrnsblk Gracie Furlong+1.9
63-3BRADBRAD×3BlockedKamryn Behrnsblk Adeline Goedheer, Cherlin Antonio+2.6
74-3BRADBRAD×3BlockedShay McMillenblk Chloe Parker, Adeline Goedheer+2.7
84-4BRADDRAKEServe errBradley+2.0
95-4DRAKEBRADServe errDrake+2.1
105-5BRADDRAKE×6KillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+2.1
115-6DRAKEDRAKE×6Attack errCherlin Antonio+2.8
125-7DRAKEDRAKE×6Attack errCherlin Antonio+2.8
135-8DRAKEDRAKE×6KillShay McMillenset Jasmine Dulan+2.6
145-9DRAKEDRAKE×6KillBliss Beckset Katie Quick+2.4
155-10DRAKEDRAKE×6AceDrake+2.1
166-10DRAKEBRAD×3KillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+1.4
177-10BRADBRAD×3KillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+2.2
188-10BRADBRAD×3AceAva Patchettaced Shay McMillen+2.5
198-11BRADDRAKE×8KillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+2.2
208-12DRAKEDRAKE×8KillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+2.6
218-13DRAKEDRAKE×8KillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+2.2
228-14DRAKEDRAKE×8KillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+1.8
238-15DRAKEDRAKE×8KillCaroline Smithset Jasmine Dulan+1.4
248-16DRAKEDRAKE×8BlockedDakota Elliottblk Caroline Smith, Bliss Beck+1.0
258-17DRAKEDRAKE×8AceDrake+0.6
268-18DRAKEDRAKE×8Attack errCherlin Antonio+0.4
279-18DRAKEBRADKillMaria Drappset Gracie Furlong+0.1
289-19BRADDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+0.2
2910-19DRAKEBRADServe errDrake+0.1
3011-19BRADBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+0.3
3111-20BRADDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+0.3
3212-20DRAKEBRADKillMaria Drappset Ava Patchett+0.1
3312-21BRADDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+0.3
3413-21DRAKEBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+0.1
3513-22BRADDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+0.2
3614-22DRAKEBRADKillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+0.1
3715-22BRADBRADKillChloe Parker+0.2
3815-23BRADDRAKEAttack errCherlin Antonio+0.2
3916-23DRAKEBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+0.1
4016-24BRADDRAKEAttack errMaren Ouellette+0.1
4117-24DRAKEBRAD×3Serve errDrake·
4218-24BRADBRAD×3KillMaria Drappset Megan DePoorter+0.1
4319-24BRADBRAD×3KillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+0.2
4419-25BRADDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+0.3
Set 3
11-0DRAKEBRAD×3BlockedKamryn Behrnsblk Dakota Elliott, Gracie Furlong+2.5
22-0BRADBRAD×3KillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+3.3
33-0BRADBRAD×3KillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+3.2
43-1BRADDRAKEAttack errChloe Parker+2.3
53-2DRAKEDRAKEAttack errChloe Parker+3.2
64-2DRAKEBRADServe errDrake+2.6
74-3BRADDRAKE×4KillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+2.5
84-4DRAKEDRAKE×4KillBliss Beckset Jasmine Dulan+3.5
94-5DRAKEDRAKE×4BlockedChloe Parkerblk Shay McMillen, Bliss Beck+3.6
104-6DRAKEDRAKE×4Serve errDrake+3.5
115-6DRAKEBRADKillAdeline Goedheerset Maria Drapp+2.6
125-7BRADDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+2.8
135-8DRAKEDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Bella Faria+3.5
146-8DRAKEBRADKillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+2.5
156-9BRADDRAKEKillBliss Beckset Katie Quick+2.7
167-9DRAKEBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.5
178-9BRADBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+3.7
188-10BRADDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+3.0
198-11DRAKEDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+3.7
209-11DRAKEBRAD×3KillDakota Elliottset Maria Drapp+2.6
2110-11BRADBRAD×3KillGracie Furlongset Eirini Bitsaktsi+3.9
2211-11BRADBRAD×3BlockedCaroline Smithblk Chloe Parker, Dakota Elliott+4.2
2311-12BRADDRAKEServe errBradley+3.4
2411-13DRAKEDRAKEAttack errGracie Furlong+4.3
2512-13DRAKEBRADAttack errCaroline Smith+3.2
2612-14BRADDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+3.5
2712-15DRAKEDRAKEAttack errChloe Parker+4.2
2813-15DRAKEBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+2.8
2913-16BRADDRAKEKillAniyah Davisset Katie Quick+3.3
3014-16DRAKEBRADServe errDrake+2.9
3115-16BRADBRADAceAva Patchett+4.6
3215-17BRADDRAKEBad setMaria Drapp+4.0
3316-17DRAKEBRADKillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+3.6
3417-17BRADBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+5.5
3517-18BRADDRAKEKillKatie Quickset Shay McMillen+4.5
3618-18DRAKEBRADServe errDrake+4.5
3718-19BRADDRAKEKillBliss Beckset Katie Quick+4.9
3819-19DRAKEBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+4.8
3919-20BRADDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+5.3
4019-21DRAKEDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+6.8
4120-21DRAKEBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+4.4
4220-22BRADDRAKE×4Attack errCherlin Antonio+5.7
4320-23DRAKEDRAKE×4BlockedCherlin Antonioblk Kamryn Behrns, Aniyah Davis+6.0
4420-24DRAKEDRAKE×4KillAniyah Davisset Katie Quick+3.4
4520-25DRAKEDRAKE×4KillKamryn Behrnsset Jasmine Dulan+1.1
Set 4
11-0BRADBRADKillCherlin Antonio+3.2
21-1BRADDRAKEKillAniyah Davisset Katie Quick+2.5
32-1DRAKEBRADAttack errShay McMillen+2.5
42-2BRADDRAKEAttack errMaren Ouellette+2.5
52-3DRAKEDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+3.3
63-3DRAKEBRADKillMaria Drappset Chloe Parker+2.6
73-4BRADDRAKE×3Serve errChloe Parker+2.6
83-5DRAKEDRAKE×3Attack errMaren Ouellette+3.4
93-6DRAKEDRAKE×3AceKamryn Behrnsaced Maren Ouellette+3.3
104-6DRAKEBRADKillAdeline Goedheerset Maria Drapp+2.3
114-7BRADDRAKEKillBliss Beckset Katie Quick+2.5
124-8DRAKEDRAKEKillBliss Beckset Katie Quick+3.1
135-8DRAKEBRAD×3KillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.1
146-8BRADBRAD×3BlockedBliss Beckblk Gracie Furlong, Adeline Goedheer+3.2
157-8BRADBRAD×3KillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+3.5
167-9BRADDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+2.9
178-9DRAKEBRAD×3KillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+2.8
189-9BRADBRAD×3Attack errCaroline Smith+3.9
1910-9BRADBRAD×3Attack errCaroline Smith+4.1
2010-10BRADDRAKEKillKatie Quickset Finley Schelhaas+3.1
2111-10DRAKEBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+3.2
2211-11BRADDRAKEKillAniyah Davisset Katie Quick+3.2
2312-11DRAKEBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+3.3
2412-12BRADDRAKEKillAniyah Davisset Katie Quick+3.3
2513-12DRAKEBRADKillMaren Ouelletteset Maria Drapp+3.5
2613-13BRADDRAKEKillKamryn Behrnsset Katie Quick+3.4
2714-13DRAKEBRAD×4KillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+3.6
2815-13BRADBRAD×4AceAva Patchettaced Shay McMillen+4.7
2916-13BRADBRAD×4Attack errShay McMillen+4.4
3017-13BRADBRAD×4Attack errShay McMillen+3.8
3117-14BRADDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Bliss Beck+2.3
3218-14DRAKEBRAD×3KillAdeline Goedheerset Maria Drapp+3.0
3319-14BRADBRAD×3Attack errCaroline Smith+3.0
3420-14BRADBRAD×3KillGracie Furlongset Eirini Bitsaktsi+2.1
3520-15BRADDRAKE×3KillBliss Beckset Katie Quick+0.9
3620-16DRAKEDRAKE×3Attack errGracie Furlong+1.9
3720-17DRAKEDRAKE×3KillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+2.8
3821-17DRAKEBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+3.1
3921-18BRADDRAKEKillAniyah Davisset Katie Quick+2.0
4022-18DRAKEBRADAttack errKamryn Behrns+3.1
4122-19BRADDRAKEServe errMaria Drapp+1.8
4223-19DRAKEBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+3.0
4324-19BRADBRADKillChloe Parkerset Maria Drapp+1.9
4424-20BRADDRAKEAttack errCherlin Antonio+0.4
4524-21DRAKEDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+1.1
4625-21DRAKEBRADKillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+2.9
Set 5
11-0DRAKEBRAD×3KillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+6.6
22-0BRADBRAD×3KillCherlin Antonioset Maria Drapp+8.5
33-0BRADBRAD×3BlockedLisa Melencianoblk Adeline Goedheer+8.1
43-1BRADDRAKE×4KillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+5.5
53-2DRAKEDRAKE×4BlockedMaria Drappblk Aniyah Davis, Lisa Melenciano+8.3
63-3DRAKEDRAKE×4Attack errElla Nigl+9.1
73-4DRAKEDRAKE×4BlockedGracie Furlongblk Aniyah Davis, Lisa Melenciano+9.5
84-4DRAKEBRADServe errDrake+7.3
94-5BRADDRAKE×4Attack errShay McMillen+7.7
104-6DRAKEDRAKE×4AceJasmine Dulanaced Gracie Furlong+9.9
114-7DRAKEDRAKE×4KillShay McMillenset Maria Drapp+9.1
124-8DRAKEDRAKE×4BlockedMaren Ouelletteblk Lisa Melenciano, Bliss Beck+7.7
135-8DRAKEBRAD×4Attack errShay McMillen+4.5
146-8BRADBRAD×4AceEirini Bitsaktsiaced Shay McMillen+7.9
157-8BRADBRAD×4BlockedLisa Melencianoblk Chloe Parker, Maren Ouellette+9.9
168-8BRADBRAD×4KillMaren Ouelletteset Eirini Bitsaktsi+11.7
178-9BRADDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+9.8
189-9DRAKEBRADKillElla Niglset Maria Drapp+9.7
199-10BRADDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+10.6
209-11DRAKEDRAKEAttack errMaren Ouellette+13.6
2110-11DRAKEBRADAttack errKatie Quick+8.8
2210-12BRADDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+11.5
2311-12DRAKEBRADAttack errCaroline Smith+9.2
2411-13BRADDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+13.0
2512-13DRAKEBRADKillGracie Furlongset Maria Drapp+9.4
2612-14BRADDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Jasmine Dulan+15.2
2712-15DRAKEDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Maria Drapp+11.3

Score shown after each rally, Bradley first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).