Final · 4 setsFri, Nov 6, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Drake def. Southern Ill. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Drake 81.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 6, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Drake beat visiting Southern Ill. 3-1 (25-14, 19-25, 25-14, 25-14) on Fri, Nov 6, 2026. Drake's Caroline Smith led with 21 kills, and Bella Faria added 15 digs.

Data through · final Nov 6

Set1234Sets
SIU142514141
DRAKE251925253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

A 9–0 run in the fourth set broke it open for Drake.

The biggest single-rally swing was 2.4 points, and Southern Ill.'s high was 27% in Set 3. The gap came from these numbers. Drake went in as RallyIQ's 81% pick.

Southern Ill.Drake
  • Break %+16.9 pts
    41.258.1

    Points won on own serve: 54 of 93 vs 28 of 68. Southern Ill. sided out 41.9% of the time.

  • Hitting+.199
    .042.241

    57 kills, 23 errors vs 34 kills, 28 errors.

  • Longest run+4
    59

    Drake scored 9 straight in the fourth set to open the set 9–0. The set finished 25–14.

Drake above 50Southern Ill. belowMax swing 2.4%

Southern Ill.Drake

Aces
Southern Ill. 3·Drake 4
Serve err
Southern Ill. 4·Drake 6
Blocks
Southern Ill. 6·Drake 60 BS · 12 BA vs 1 BS · 10 BA
Digs
Southern Ill. 52·Drake 69

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Drake above 50 · Southern Ill. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+2.4% DRAKErally 161 · set 4

Biggest swing: 2.4% to Drake — set 3, SIU 1-2 DRAKE. Kill by Lisa Melenciano (set by Katie Quick). DRAKE win probability 75% → 78%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SIU 15.8%84.2% DRAKE

Southern Ill. wins

3-0
2.4%
3-1
5.1%
3-2
8.3%

Drake wins

3-0
36.2%
3-1
31.2%
3-2
16.9%
SIU break %
40.7% vs this opp
DRAKE break %
48.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Lisa Melenciano (set by Katie Quick)

    Set 3 · SIU 1-2 DRAKE · DRAKE 75% → 78%

  2. 02
    McKenzie MoellerAttack error+2.2%

    Attack error by McKenzie Moeller

    Set 3 · SIU 1-3 DRAKE · DRAKE 78% → 80%

  3. 03
    Lisa MelencianoAttack error+2.2%

    Attack error by Lisa Melenciano

    Set 3 · SIU 1-0 DRAKE · SIU 25% → 27%

  4. 04

    Kill by Lisa Melenciano (set by Katie Quick)

    Set 3 · SIU 1-4 DRAKE · DRAKE 80% → 82%

  5. 05
    Aniyah DavisKill+2.0%

    Kill by Aniyah Davis (set by Alexandria Arrington)

    Set 3 · SIU 1-1 DRAKE · DRAKE 73% → 75%

  6. 06

    Kill by Caroline Smith (set by Katie Quick)

    Set 3 · SIU 2-6 DRAKE · DRAKE 82% → 84%

  7. 07

    Shay McMillen stuffed by Chloe Anderson & Alexandria Arrington

    Set 2 · SIU 11-7 DRAKE · SIU 15% → 17%

  8. 08
    McKenzie MoellerAttack error+1.7%

    Attack error by McKenzie Moeller

    Set 4 · SIU 0-2 DRAKE · DRAKE 91% → 93%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412545.15600080010.512.5
4101042.00000180010.510.5
45017.29410000031.56.5
44413.00010010031.55.5
4119.0002420300425
4001.0001111200001
42512-.250000310002
4000–3011310000
3000–001300000
1022-1.000000000000
1011-1.000000000000
1001.000100100000
Team totals3428143.0423134524012667
Drakehome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
421542.3810004002122
414639.20501370010.515.5
47211.455000001229
46620.000000200217
45216.18800000031.56.5
4206.33349001300002
4000–0311500003
4002.0003001310000
4012-.5000021000000
4000–000510000
12021.000000000002
1011-1.000000000000
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5723141.2415246693110694

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 SIU · DRAKE 9

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 3 SIUDRAKE 5

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 4 SIUDRAKE 4

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 5 SIUDRAKE 5

Set 4

14-25

Longest run 4 SIUDRAKE 9

Bars above the line = Drake leads, below = Southern Ill. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Southern Ill.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
38%8/21
60%9/15
2
50%8/16
20%2/10
3
47%8/17
11%1/9
4
24%5/21
27%3/11
5
56%5/9
62%8/13
6
56%5/9
50%5/10
All
42%39/93
41%28/68

Drake

SlotSideout %Break %
1
73%8/11
53%8/15
2
80%8/10
65%15/23
3
73%8/11
56%10/18
4
75%6/8
63%10/16
5
38%5/13
55%6/11
6
33%5/15
50%5/10
All
59%40/68
58%54/93

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

161 rallies

#SIU-DRAKESrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1DRAKEDRAKE×5Attack errMcKenzie Moeller+1.5
20-2DRAKEDRAKE×5KillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+1.4
30-3DRAKEDRAKE×5AceDrake+1.3
40-4DRAKEDRAKE×5Attack errMcKenzie Moeller+1.1
50-5DRAKEDRAKE×5KillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+0.9
61-5DRAKESIUServe errDrake+0.7
71-6SIUDRAKE×5KillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick+0.7
81-7DRAKEDRAKE×5Attack errIda Almkvist+0.8
91-8DRAKEDRAKE×5BlockedElla Swansigerblk Caroline Smith, Bliss Beck+0.6
101-9DRAKEDRAKE×5Attack errIda Almkvist+0.5
111-10DRAKEDRAKE×5KillCaroline Smithset Jasmine Dulan+0.3
122-10DRAKESIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+0.2
132-11SIUDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+0.3
142-12DRAKEDRAKEAttack errIda Almkvist+0.2
153-12DRAKESIUAttack errCaroline Smith+0.1
163-13SIUDRAKE×4KillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+0.2
173-14DRAKEDRAKE×4KillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+0.1
183-15DRAKEDRAKE×4KillShay McMillen+0.1
193-16DRAKEDRAKE×4Attack errIda Almkvist·
204-16DRAKESIUServe errDrake·
215-16SIUSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Jillian Shaneyfelt·
225-17SIUDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Katie Quick·
236-17DRAKESIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Isabella Del Real·
247-17SIUSIUAttack errShay McMillen+0.1
257-18SIUDRAKEAttack errMcKenzie Moeller+0.1
267-19DRAKEDRAKEAttack errElla McFarland·
278-19DRAKESIU×3KillChloe Andersonset Alexandria Arrington·
289-19SIUSIU×3AceSouthern Ill.aced Jasmine Dulan·
2910-19SIUSIU×3Bad setKatie Quick+0.1
3010-20SIUDRAKEKillAniyah Davisset Katie Quick+0.1
3111-20DRAKESIUServe errDrake·
3211-21SIUDRAKEKillAniyah Davisset Katie Quick+0.1
3312-21DRAKESIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington·
3412-22SIUDRAKE×3KillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick·
3512-23DRAKEDRAKE×3AceDrakeaced Ida Almkvist·
3612-24DRAKEDRAKE×3KillBliss Beckset Katie Quick·
3713-24DRAKESIUKillBeatriz Piaiaset Alexandria Arrington·
3814-24SIUSIUBlockedCaroline Smithblk Beatriz Piaia, Alexandria Arrington·
3914-25SIUDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick·
Set 2
10-1SIUDRAKEBlockedElla Swansigerblk Lisa Melenciano, Aniyah Davis+0.9
21-1DRAKESIU×3KillChloe Andersonset Alexandria Arrington+1.0
32-1SIUSIU×3KillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+1.3
43-1SIUSIU×3Attack errCaroline Smith+1.4
53-2SIUDRAKEKillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick+1.0
64-2DRAKESIUBlockedBliss Beckblk Chloe Anderson, Ella Swansiger+1.2
74-3SIUDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Jasmine Dulan+1.1
85-3DRAKESIUKillIda Almkvistset Beatriz Piaia+1.2
95-4SIUDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+1.1
105-5DRAKEDRAKEAttack errBeatriz Piaia+1.4
116-5DRAKESIU×4KillMcKenzie Moellerset Alexandria Arrington+1.2
127-5SIUSIU×4KillMcKenzie Moellerset Alexandria Arrington+1.6
138-5SIUSIU×4AceSouthern Ill.+1.7
149-5SIUSIU×4BlockedShay McMillenblk Beatriz Piaia, Alexandria Arrington+1.7
159-6SIUDRAKEKillBliss Beckset Katie Quick+1.1
169-7DRAKEDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+1.5
1710-7DRAKESIU×4Attack errAniyah Davis+1.4
1811-7SIUSIU×4BlockedShay McMillenblk Chloe Anderson, Alexandria Arrington+1.8
1912-7SIUSIU×4KillChloe Andersonset Alexandria Arrington+1.7
2013-7SIUSIU×4Attack errMatthea Dalton+1.5
2113-8SIUDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+0.9
2214-8DRAKESIUKillAlexandria Arringtonset Alexandria Arrington+1.2
2315-8SIUSIUKillChloe Andersonset Alexandria Arrington+1.3
2415-9SIUDRAKEAttack errMcKenzie Moeller+0.7
2516-9DRAKESIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Alexandria Arrington+1.0
2616-10SIUDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+0.7
2716-11DRAKEDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+1.1
2817-11DRAKESIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+1.2
2918-11SIUSIUKillElla Swansigerset Jillian Shaneyfelt+1.2
3018-12SIUDRAKEKillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick+0.6
3119-12DRAKESIUKillBeatriz Piaiaset Alexandria Arrington+0.9
3220-12SIUSIUBlockedCaroline Smithblk Alexandria Arrington, Beatriz Piaia+0.7
3320-13SIUDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+0.3
3421-13DRAKESIUServe errDrake+0.5
3522-13SIUSIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+0.3
3622-14SIUDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+0.1
3722-15DRAKEDRAKEKillAniyah Davisset Katie Quick+0.2
3823-15DRAKESIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Alexandria Arrington+0.3
3924-15SIUSIUKillChloe Andersonset Alexandria Arrington+0.1
4024-16SIUDRAKE×4Attack errMcKenzie Moeller·
4124-17DRAKEDRAKE×4KillAniyah Davisset Katie Quick·
4224-18DRAKEDRAKE×4BlockedBeatriz Piaiablk Aniyah Davis+0.1
4324-19DRAKEDRAKE×4Attack errMcKenzie Moeller+0.2
4425-19DRAKESIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+0.3
Set 3
11-0DRAKESIUAttack errLisa Melenciano+2.2
21-1SIUDRAKE×4KillAniyah Davisset Alexandria Arrington+2.0
31-2DRAKEDRAKE×4KillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick+2.4
41-3DRAKEDRAKE×4Attack errMcKenzie Moeller+2.2
51-4DRAKEDRAKE×4KillLisa Melencianoset Katie Quick+2.0
62-4DRAKESIUAttack errBliss Beck+1.6
72-5SIUDRAKE×4Serve errSouthern Ill.+1.6
82-6DRAKEDRAKE×4KillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+1.8
92-7DRAKEDRAKE×4AceDrake+1.5
102-8DRAKEDRAKE×4KillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+1.2
113-8DRAKESIUServe errDrake+0.9
124-8SIUSIUAttack errCaroline Smith+1.4
134-9SIUDRAKE×5KillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+1.2
144-10DRAKEDRAKE×5Attack errIda Almkvist+1.2
154-11DRAKEDRAKE×5KillBliss Beckset Katie Quick+0.9
164-12DRAKEDRAKE×5KillKatie Quickset Alexandria Arrington+0.7
174-13DRAKEDRAKE×5KillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+0.5
185-13DRAKESIUAttack errShay McMillen+0.3
195-14SIUDRAKEServe errSouthern Ill.+0.3
206-14DRAKESIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Alexandria Arrington+0.3
216-15SIUDRAKEKillAniyah Davisset Katie Quick+0.3
227-15DRAKESIU×5KillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+0.2
238-15SIUSIU×5BlockedAniyah Davisblk Chloe Anderson, McKenzie Moeller+0.4
249-15SIUSIU×5Attack errLisa Melenciano+0.7
2510-15SIUSIU×5KillMcKenzie Moellerset Alexandria Arrington+1.0
2611-15SIUSIU×5Attack errShay McMillen+1.4
2711-16SIUDRAKEKillAniyah Davisset Katie Quick+1.3
2812-16DRAKESIUAttack errLisa Melenciano+1.1
2912-17SIUDRAKEAttack errMcKenzie Moeller+1.4
3013-17DRAKESIUKillElla Swansigerset Jillian Shaneyfelt+1.1
3113-18SIUDRAKE×4KillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+1.4
3213-19DRAKEDRAKE×4AceDrakeaced Jillian Shaneyfelt+1.2
3313-20DRAKEDRAKE×4Attack errNatalie Vance+0.7
3413-21DRAKEDRAKE×4Bad setAlexandria Arrington+0.4
3514-21DRAKESIUKillBeatriz Piaiaset Alexandria Arrington+0.1
3614-22SIUDRAKE×4Attack errNatalie Vance+0.2
3714-23DRAKEDRAKE×4Attack errBeatriz Piaia+0.1
3814-24DRAKEDRAKE×4BlockedElla Swansigerblk Bliss Beck, Shay McMillen·
3914-25DRAKEDRAKE×4KillBliss Beckset Katie Quick·
Set 4
10-1SIUDRAKE×9KillCaroline Smithset Alexandria Arrington+1.5
20-2DRAKEDRAKE×9Attack errMcKenzie Moeller+1.7
30-3DRAKEDRAKE×9KillKatie Quickset Alexandria Arrington+1.6
40-4DRAKEDRAKE×9BlockedElla Swansigerblk Caroline Smith, Bliss Beck+1.4
50-5DRAKEDRAKE×9KillBliss Beckset Katie Quick+1.1
60-6DRAKEDRAKE×9KillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+0.9
70-7DRAKEDRAKE×9KillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+0.7
80-8DRAKEDRAKE×9KillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+0.6
90-9DRAKEDRAKE×9Attack errElla Swansiger+0.4
101-9DRAKESIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Chloe Anderson+0.3
111-10SIUDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+0.3
122-10DRAKESIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+0.3
132-11SIUDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+0.3
143-11DRAKESIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+0.2
153-12SIUDRAKE×3KillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+0.3
163-13DRAKEDRAKE×3KillShay McMillenset Jasmine Dulan+0.3
173-14DRAKEDRAKE×3KillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+0.2
184-14DRAKESIU×4KillIda Almkvistset Lillian Dempkey+0.1
195-14SIUSIU×4KillBeatriz Piaiaset Lillian Dempkey+0.2
206-14SIUSIU×4Attack errLisa Melenciano+0.2
217-14SIUSIU×4Attack errShay McMillen+0.4
227-15SIUDRAKE×3Attack errBeatriz Piaia+0.4
237-16DRAKEDRAKE×3Attack errAlexandria Arrington+0.3
247-17DRAKEDRAKE×3BlockedMcKenzie Moellerblk Lisa Melenciano, Aniyah Davis+0.2
258-17DRAKESIUServe errDrake+0.1
268-18SIUDRAKEServe errSouthern Ill.+0.1
279-18DRAKESIU×3Attack errLisa Melenciano+0.1
2810-18SIUSIU×3Attack errLisa Melenciano+0.2
2911-18SIUSIU×3AceAlexandria Arringtonaced Finley Schelhaas+0.3
3011-19SIUDRAKEKillCaroline Smithset Katie Quick+0.3
3112-19DRAKESIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Alexandria Arrington+0.2
3212-20SIUDRAKEServe errSouthern Ill.+0.3
3313-20DRAKESIUAttack errHailey Laffond+0.1
3413-21SIUDRAKEKillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+0.2
3514-21DRAKESIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+0.1
3614-22SIUDRAKE×4KillShay McMillenset Katie Quick+0.2
3714-23DRAKEDRAKE×4KillAva Turlaisset Katie Quick+0.1
3814-24DRAKEDRAKE×4KillAva Turlaisset Katie Quick·
3914-25DRAKEDRAKE×4KillShay McMillenset Katie Quick·

Score shown after each rally, Southern Ill. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).