FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayMVC

0:3

HomeHORIZON

Wright St. def. Drake 3–0

(25-17, 25-9, 26-24)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
DRAKE	17	9	24	0
WRIGHT	25	25	26	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

WRIGHT above 50 · DRAKE below

Biggest swing: 3.5% to Wright St. — set 3, DRAKE 24-25 WRIGHT. Caroline Smith stuffed by Reilly Zegunis & Lauren Yacobucci. WRIGHT win probability 93% → 97%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

DRAKE 24.9%75.1% WRIGHT

Drake wins

3-0

4.4%

3-1

8.5%

3-2

12.0%

Wright St. wins

3-0

27.1%

3-1

28.7%

3-2

19.3%

DRAKE break %: 40.8% vs this opp
WRIGHT break %: 46.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Caroline SmithAttack error+3.5%
Caroline Smith stuffed by Reilly Zegunis & Lauren Yacobucci
Set 3 · DRAKE 24-25 WRIGHT · WRIGHT 93% → 97%
02
WRIGHT serverAce+3.1%
Wright St. ace on Jasmine Dulan
Set 3 · DRAKE 24-26 WRIGHT · WRIGHT 97% → 100%
03
Caroline SmithKill+3.0%
Kill by Caroline Smith (set by Katie Quick)
Set 3 · DRAKE 24-23 WRIGHT · DRAKE 7% → 9%
04
Katie SowkoKill+3.0%
Kill by Katie Sowko (set by Lauren Yacobucci)
Set 3 · DRAKE 24-24 WRIGHT · WRIGHT 91% → 93%
05
Lisa MelencianoKill+2.3%
Kill by Lisa Melenciano (set by Katie Quick)
Set 3 · DRAKE 23-22 WRIGHT · DRAKE 6% → 9%
06
Greta McKeeKill+2.2%
Kill by Greta McKee (set by Katie Quick)
Set 3 · DRAKE 23-23 WRIGHT · WRIGHT 91% → 93%
07
Matthea DaltonAttack error+2.1%
Attack error by Matthea Dalton
Set 3 · DRAKE 21-21 WRIGHT · WRIGHT 92% → 94%
08
Haley RobinsonAttack error+1.9%
Attack error by Haley Robinson
Set 3 · DRAKE 22-21 WRIGHT · DRAKE 6% → 8%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Drakeaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
13Lisa MelencianoOH	3	8	5	25	.120	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	9
5Caroline SmithOH	3	8	2	22	.273	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	8
6Bliss BeckMB	3	4	1	15	.200	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
4Aniyah DavisOH	3	2	2	7	.000	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
2Katie QuickS	3	0	0	0	–	16	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
12Shay McMillenOH	2	2	2	13	.000	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	2
23Kamryn BehrnsOH	3	6	1	16	.313	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
3Jasmine DulanL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	1	0	27	2	0	0	1
1Bella FariaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	3	2	0	0	0
11Carolyn MaserS	3	0	0	0	–	12	0	1	5	0	0	0	0
16Matthea DaltonOH	2	1	1	10	.000	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	1
24Finley SchelhaasL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		31	14	109	.156	31	1	5	55	7	6	3	50

Wright St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Reilly ZegunisMB	3	9	1	20	.400	0	1	0	2	0	0	4	2	12
14Katie SowkoOH	3	7	1	28	.214	0	2	1	14	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
4Abigail KnightOH	3	7	3	18	.222	1	0	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
17Haley RobinsonMB	3	5	2	11	.273	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
9Greta McKeeDS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	3	2	10	0	0	0	0	4
7Lauren YacobucciS	3	2	1	4	.250	36	1	0	9	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
10Mya AyroOH	3	13	5	31	.258	1	0	0	3	1	0	1	0.5	13.5
3Taygan CorstangeL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	6	0	1	16	0	0	0	0	0
15Haidyn SokoloskiOPP	2	4	0	6	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
11Olivia SchmidtMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2
Team totals		49	13	122	.295	44	7	5	57	1	1	8	5	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 DRAKE · WRIGHT 6

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 DRAKEWRIGHT 5

Set 2

9-25

Longest run 1 DRAKEWRIGHT 6

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 4 DRAKEWRIGHT 5

Bars above the line = Wright St. leads, below = Drake leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Drake

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%7/16	14%1/7
2	88%7/8	42%5/12
3	40%6/15	13%1/8
4	83%5/6	40%4/10
5	26%5/19	29%2/7
6	40%4/10	38%3/8
All	46%34/74	31%16/52

Wright St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	88%7/8	67%10/15
2	58%7/12	36%4/11
3	88%7/8	42%5/12
4	56%5/9	55%6/11
5	71%5/7	50%5/10
6	63%5/8	67%10/15
All	69%36/52	54%40/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

126 rallies

Rally log

#	DRAKE-WRIGHT	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Haley Robinson	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.4
2	1-1	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+1.5
3	1-2	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Attack err	Aniyah Davis	blk Reilly Zegunis, Katie Sowko	+1.4
4	2-2	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+1.5
5	2-3	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Katie Sowko	set Taygan Corstange	+1.5
6	3-3	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Serve err	WRIGHT server		+1.6
7	3-4	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.5
8	4-4	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+1.6
9	4-5	DRAKE	WRIGHT×5	Kill	Katie Sowko	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.6
10	4-6	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×5	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Kamryn Behrns	+1.9
11	4-7	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×5	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.7
12	4-8	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×5	Kill	Abigail Knight	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.5
13	4-9	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×5	Attack err	Shay McMillen		+1.3
14	5-9	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+0.9
15	5-10	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.0
16	5-11	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Kill	Abigail Knight	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.0
17	6-11	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Serve err	WRIGHT server		+0.7
18	6-12	DRAKE	WRIGHT×3	Kill	Katie Sowko	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.8
19	6-13	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Kill	Reilly Zegunis	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.8
20	6-14	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Kill	Abigail Knight	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.5
21	7-14	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.3
22	7-15	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Reilly Zegunis	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.4
23	7-16	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Kill	Reilly Zegunis	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.3
24	8-16	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Serve err	WRIGHT server		+0.2
25	9-16	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+0.3
26	9-17	DRAKE	WRIGHT×3	Kill	Katie Sowko	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.3
27	9-18	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano	blk Mya Ayro, Reilly Zegunis	+0.3
28	9-19	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Bad set	Katie Quick		+0.1
29	10-19	WRIGHT	DRAKE×3	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+0.1
30	11-19	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Attack err	Mya Ayro		+0.1
31	12-19	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+0.2
32	12-20	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Lauren Yacobucci		+0.3
33	13-20	WRIGHT	DRAKE×3	Attack err	Abigail Knight		+0.1
34	14-20	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Bella Faria	+0.3
35	15-20	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Attack err	Lauren Yacobucci	blk Kamryn Behrns, Bliss Beck	+0.5
36	15-21	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Haley Robinson	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.6
37	15-22	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Attack err	Shay McMillen		+0.4
38	16-22	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+0.1
39	17-22	DRAKE	DRAKE	Attack err	Mya Ayro		+0.3
40	17-23	DRAKE	WRIGHT×3	Kill	Abigail Knight	set Taygan Corstange	+0.4
41	17-24	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Ace	WRIGHT server	aced Team	+0.2
42	17-25	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Ace	WRIGHT server	aced Bella Faria	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Taygan Corstange	+1.5
2	0-2	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Kill	Haley Robinson	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.4
3	0-3	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.3
4	1-3	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Shay McMillen	set Katie Quick	+0.9
5	1-4	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Serve err	DRAKE server		+1.0
6	2-4	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Serve err	WRIGHT server		+1.0
7	2-5	DRAKE	WRIGHT×4	Kill	Haley Robinson	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.0
8	2-6	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×4	Kill	Reilly Zegunis	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.2
9	2-7	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×4	Attack err	Caroline Smith	blk Abigail Knight, Reilly Zegunis	+1.0
10	2-8	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×4	Attack err	Bliss Beck		+0.8
11	3-8	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Serve err	WRIGHT server		+0.5
12	3-9	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Serve err	DRAKE server		+0.6
13	3-10	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Kill	Reilly Zegunis	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.6
14	4-10	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Carolyn Maser	+0.4
15	4-11	DRAKE	WRIGHT×6	Serve err	DRAKE server		+0.5
16	4-12	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×6	Kill	Reilly Zegunis	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.5
17	4-13	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×6	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.3
18	4-14	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×6	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.2
19	4-15	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×6	Ace	WRIGHT server	aced Matthea Dalton	+0.1
20	4-16	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×6	Kill	Lauren Yacobucci	set Mya Ayro	+0.1
21	5-16	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Attack err	Mya Ayro		+0.0
22	5-17	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.0
23	5-18	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Ace	WRIGHT server	aced Team	+0.0
24	6-18	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+0.0
25	6-19	DRAKE	WRIGHT×3	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano	blk Olivia Schmidt	+0.0
26	6-20	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Kill	Olivia Schmidt	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.0
27	6-21	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano		+0.0
28	7-21	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Aniyah Davis	set Katie Quick	+0.0
29	7-22	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.0
30	8-22	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+0.0
31	8-23	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Katie Sowko	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.0
32	8-24	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Kill	Haidyn Sokoloski		+0.0
33	9-24	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.0
34	9-25	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Haidyn Sokoloski	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Abigail Knight	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.6
2	0-2	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Attack err	Aniyah Davis		+0.8
3	1-2	WRIGHT	DRAKE×3	Kill	Aniyah Davis	set Katie Quick	+0.6
4	2-2	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Attack err	Abigail Knight		+0.8
5	3-2	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Jasmine Dulan	+0.9
6	3-3	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Serve err	DRAKE server		+0.7
7	4-3	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.7
8	4-4	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Serve err	DRAKE server		+0.7
9	5-4	WRIGHT	DRAKE×3	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+0.8
10	6-4	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+1.0
11	7-4	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Carolyn Maser	+1.1
12	7-5	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Reilly Zegunis	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.7
13	8-5	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+0.8
14	8-6	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.7
15	9-6	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+0.9
16	9-7	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Abigail Knight	set Taygan Corstange	+0.8
17	10-7	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Attack err	Abigail Knight		+0.9
18	11-7	DRAKE	DRAKE	Attack err	Haley Robinson		+1.1
19	11-8	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Haley Robinson	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.7
20	11-9	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano		+1.0
21	12-9	WRIGHT	DRAKE×4	Attack err	Reilly Zegunis		+0.9
22	13-9	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Matthea Dalton	set Aniyah Davis	+1.2
23	14-9	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+1.1
24	15-9	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+0.9
25	15-10	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano		+0.5
26	16-10	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Attack err	Katie Sowko	blk Lisa Melenciano, Aniyah Davis	+0.7
27	16-11	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Abigail Knight	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.5
28	16-12	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Kill	Reilly Zegunis	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.8
29	17-12	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Attack err	Mya Ayro	blk Bliss Beck, Lisa Melenciano	+0.9
30	17-13	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Reilly Zegunis	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.6
31	18-13	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+0.9
32	18-14	DRAKE	WRIGHT×5	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.6
33	18-15	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×5	Ace	WRIGHT server	aced Jasmine Dulan	+1.0
34	18-16	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×5	Attack err	Kamryn Behrns		+1.2
35	18-17	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×5	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Taygan Corstange	+1.5
36	18-18	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×5	Kill	Haidyn Sokoloski	set Taygan Corstange	+1.6
37	19-18	WRIGHT	DRAKE×3	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+1.4
38	20-18	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Attack err	Mya Ayro		+1.9
39	21-18	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Mya Ayro	+1.8
40	21-19	DRAKE	WRIGHT×3	Kill	Katie Sowko	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.0
41	21-20	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Ace	WRIGHT server	aced Bella Faria	+1.7
42	21-21	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Attack err	Matthea Dalton		+2.1
43	22-21	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Attack err	Haley Robinson		+1.9
44	22-22	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Haidyn Sokoloski	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.8
45	23-22	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+2.3
46	23-23	DRAKE	WRIGHT	Kill	Greta McKee	set Katie Quick	+2.2
47	24-23	WRIGHT	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+3.0
48	24-24	DRAKE	WRIGHT×3	Kill	Katie Sowko	set Lauren Yacobucci	+3.0
49	24-25	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Attack err	Caroline Smith	blk Reilly Zegunis, Lauren Yacobucci	+3.5
50	24-26	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Ace	WRIGHT server	aced Jasmine Dulan	+3.1

Score shown after each rally, Drake first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.