Final · 4 setsWed, Nov 4, 2026Watch on SECN

Arkansas def. LSU 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: LSU 62.0% · upsetLocked before first serve (Nov 4, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Arkansas won at LSU 3-1 (25-20, 25-17, 21-25, 25-18) on Wed, Nov 4, 2026. Parker Duncan led Arkansas with 22 kills; LSU's Jurnee Robinson had a match-high 35.

Data through · final Nov 4

Set1234Sets
ARK252521253
LSU201725181

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Arkansas needed all of Parker Duncan's 24 points to get by LSU.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are Arkansas's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ had LSU at 62% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Arkansas 4–3 LSU

    Arkansas scored 5 straight to stretch a 4–3 lead to 9–3.

    Arkansas 74% → 91%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Arkansas 18–18 LSU

    Arkansas scored 7 straight to go from 18–18 to a 25–18 lead.

    Arkansas 71% → >99%

LSU above 50Arkansas belowMax swing 7.7%

ArkansasLSU

Sideout %
Arkansas 65.4·LSU 54.7
Break %
Arkansas 45.3·LSU 34.6
Hitting
Arkansas .317·LSU .160
Longest run
Arkansas 7·LSU 5

Parker Duncan
3 of her kills came in the stretches above. 22 K, .222, 24 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

LSU above 50 · Arkansas below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+7.7% ARKrally 176 · set 4

Biggest swing: 7.7% to Arkansas — set 4, ARK 20-18 LSU. Attack error by Jessica Jones. LSU win probability 23% → 16%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ARK 42.9%57.1% LSU

Arkansas wins

3-0
9.8%
3-1
15.8%
3-2
17.4%

LSU wins

3-0
15.7%
3-1
21.7%
3-2
19.7%
ARK break %
40.0% vs this opp
LSU break %
41.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Jessica JonesAttack error+7.7%

    Attack error by Jessica Jones

    Set 4 · ARK 20-18 LSU · ARK 77% → 84%

  2. 02
    Sanaa DonaieAttack error+7.1%

    Attack error by Sanaa Donaie

    Set 4 · ARK 18-17 LSU · ARK 69% → 76%

  3. 03
    Angelina LeeAttack error+6.7%

    Attack error by Angelina Lee

    Set 4 · ARK 21-18 LSU · ARK 84% → 91%

  4. 04

    Kill by Jurnee Robinson (set by Kiley Brooks)

    Set 4 · ARK 15-16 LSU · LSU 29% → 35%

  5. 05

    Kill by Jurnee Robinson (set by Kiley Brooks)

    Set 4 · ARK 15-15 LSU · LSU 23% → 29%

  6. 06
    Parker DuncanKill+5.2%

    Kill by Parker Duncan (set by Kiki Remensperger)

    Set 4 · ARK 19-18 LSU · ARK 71% → 77%

  7. 07

    Ace by Jessica Jones on Madi Benne

    Set 4 · ARK 14-13 LSU · LSU 19% → 24%

  8. 08
    Lainee PylesKill+4.9%

    Kill by Lainee Pyles (set by Martina Villani)

    Set 4 · ARK 22-18 LSU · ARK 91% → 96%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
422863.2221128010124
412119.57900010031.513.5
410122.40911016002112
46313.23100020073.59.5
4317.28645001701647
4000–2111020001
47118.333000000218
4000–8121520001
22Ava RothL/DS
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals6015142.31757456942201296
LSUhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
435664.45300011210136
49640.0750013010110
46418.11102020031.59.5
4103.3334701601434
41511-.36400020010.51.5
4014-.25000010010.50.5
42317-.05900020010.52.5
4000–020500002
4034-.750000100000
4001.0005011910000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–101910000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
18Remi NussL/DS
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals5428162.1605344614310880

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 ARK · LSU 5

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 4 ARKLSU 5

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 3 ARKLSU 2

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 2 ARKLSU 3

Set 4

25-18

Longest run 7 ARKLSU 4

Bars above the line = LSU leads, below = Arkansas leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Arkansas

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%5/9
29%2/7
2
57%4/7
20%1/5
3
100%4/4
50%4/8
4
80%4/5
67%8/12
5
75%3/4
75%9/12
6
50%3/6
50%3/6
All
66%23/35
54%27/50

LSU

SlotSideout %Break %
1
71%5/7
50%3/6
2
80%4/5
44%4/9
3
50%4/8
43%3/7
4
33%4/12
0%0/4
5
25%3/12
20%1/5
6
50%3/6
25%1/4
All
46%23/50
34%12/35

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

176 rallies

#ARK-LSUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0LSUARK×4KillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+1.7
22-0ARKARK×4KillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+2.6
33-0ARKARK×4AceLakin Laurendineaced Jurnee Robinson+2.6
44-0ARKARK×4Attack errTireh Smith+2.5
54-1ARKLSUKillLainee Pylesset Martina Villani+1.5
65-1LSUARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+1.7
75-2ARKLSUAttack errKiki Remenspergerset Jessica Jones+1.5
86-2LSUARKKillLayla Smith+1.8
96-3ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+1.5
106-4LSULSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+2.5
117-4LSUARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+1.9
127-5ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Kiley Brooks+1.7
138-5LSUARKServe errMartina Villani+2.0
149-5ARKARKAceMadi Benneaced Jurnee Robinson+2.7
159-6ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+1.6
1610-6LSUARKKillRomani Thurman+1.9
1710-7ARKLSUBlockedParker Duncanblk Martina Villani, Angelina Lee+1.6
1811-7LSUARK×4KillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+1.9
1912-7ARKARK×4KillParker Duncanset Gaby Cornier+2.5
2013-7ARKARK×4BlockedTireh Smithblk Aleki Alexander, Lakin Laurendine+2.0
2114-7ARKARK×4KillParker Duncanset Madi Benne+1.6
2214-8ARKLSU×5KillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+0.7
2314-9LSULSU×5BlockedAleki Alexanderblk Lainee Pyles+1.5
2414-10LSULSU×5Attack errParker Duncan+1.9
2514-11LSULSU×5BlockedParker Duncanblk Martina Villani, Jessica Jones+2.4
2614-12LSULSU×5Attack errParker Duncan+2.9
2715-12LSUARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+2.4
2815-13ARKLSUKillJessica Jonesset Martina Villani+2.0
2916-13LSUARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+2.5
3016-14ARKLSUKillJessica Jonesset Martina Villani+2.0
3117-14LSUARKKillLayla Smith+2.6
3217-15ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+2.1
3318-15LSUARKKillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+2.7
3418-16ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+2.1
3519-16LSUARKKillLakin Laurendine+2.8
3619-17ARKLSUServe errGaby Cornier+2.1
3720-17ARK
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.9
3821-17ARKARKKillAleki Alexander+3.3
3921-18ARKLSUKillLainee Pylesset Martina Villani+1.4
4022-18LSUARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+2.2
4122-19ARKLSUKillJessica Jonesset Martina Villani+1.2
4223-19LSUARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+2.1
4323-20ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Kiley Brooks+0.9
4424-20LSUARKKillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+1.9
4525-20ARKARKKillRomani Thurmanset Madi Benne+0.8
Set 2
11-0ARKARKKillParker Duncan+2.9
21-1ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+1.9
31-2LSULSUBlockedParker Duncanblk Martina Villani+2.8
42-2LSUARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+2.0
52-3ARKLSUKillMartina Villaniset Katie Raymer+2.0
63-3LSUARK×3KillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+2.0
74-3ARKARK×3BlockedJurnee Robinsonblk Layla Smith, Romani Thurman+3.1
85-3ARKARK×3Attack errJurnee Robinson+3.2
95-4ARKLSUKillSanaa Donaieset Martina Villani+2.0
106-4LSUARKAttack errSanaa Donaieset Martina Villani+2.2
117-4ARKARKAttack errTireh Smith+3.2
127-5ARKLSUServe errParker Duncan+2.0
138-5LSUARK×3Serve errKiley Brooks+2.3
149-5ARKARK×3Attack errTireh Smith+3.1
1510-5ARKARK×3BlockedLainee Pylesblk Aleki Alexander, Romani Thurman+2.8
1610-6ARKLSUServe errMadi Benne+1.5
1711-6LSUARKKillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+1.9
1811-7ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+1.5
1912-7LSUARKBlockedJurnee Robinsonblk Aleki Alexander, Kiki Remensperger+1.9
2013-7ARKARKKillKiki Remensperger+2.3
2113-8ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+1.2
2214-8LSUARKKillParker Duncan+1.6
2314-9ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinson+1.1
2414-10LSULSUKillSanaa Donaieset Martina Villani+2.2
2515-10LSUARKKillParker Duncan+2.0
2616-10ARKARKKillLayla Smith+2.2
2716-11ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+1.0
2817-11LSUARK×3Attack errSamara Colemanset Tireh Smith+1.5
2918-11ARKARK×3Attack errSamara Coleman+1.5
3019-11ARKARK×3AceParker Duncanaced Kiley Brooks+0.9
3119-12ARKLSUBlockedLakin Laurendineblk Tireh Smith, Sanaa Donaie+0.3
3219-13LSULSUAttack errLayla Smith+0.8
3320-13LSUARKKillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+0.9
3421-13ARKARKKillRomani Thurman+0.6
3521-14ARKLSUKillTireh Smithset Martina Villani+0.2
3622-14LSUARKKillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+0.3
3723-14ARKARKAttack errSamara Coleman+0.2
3823-15ARKLSUKillJessica Jonesset Martina Villani·
3924-15LSUARKKillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+0.1
4024-16ARKLSUBlockedParker Duncanblk Martina Villani, Jessica Jones·
4124-17LSULSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani·
4225-17LSUARKKillKiki Remenspergerset Lakin Laurendine·
Set 3
10-1LSULSU×3KillJessica Jonesset Martina Villani+2.1
20-2LSULSU×3KillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+2.1
30-3LSULSU×3AceEmilee Prochaskaaced Gaby Cornier+1.9
41-3LSUARKKillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+1.3
52-3ARKARKKillParker Duncanset Madi Benne+2.1
62-4ARKLSU×3Attack errAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+1.5
72-5LSULSU×3AceJessica Jonesaced Gaby Cornier+2.0
82-6LSU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.8
93-6LSUARKKillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+1.1
103-7ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+1.2
113-8LSULSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+1.6
124-8LSUARKKillParker Duncanset Madi Benne+0.9
134-9ARKLSUBad setKiki Remensperger+1.1
145-9LSUARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+0.9
155-10ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+1.1
166-10LSUARKKillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+0.9
177-10ARKARKBlockedTireh Smithblk Aleki Alexander, Lakin Laurendine+1.7
187-11ARKLSUKillLainee Pylesset Martina Villani+1.3
197-12LSULSUKillLainee Pyles+1.6
208-12LSUARKServe errKatie Raymer+0.9
219-12ARKARKBlockedLainee Pylesblk Kiki Remensperger, Aleki Alexander+1.7
229-13ARKLSUKillJessica Jonesset Martina Villani+1.4
2310-13LSUARKKillLakin Laurendineset Gaby Cornier+1.2
2410-14ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+1.4
2511-14LSUARKKillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+1.2
2611-15ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+1.5
2712-15LSUARKKillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+1.2
2813-15ARKARKKillRomani Thurmanset Madi Benne+2.3
2913-16ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Lainee Pyles+1.8
3014-16LSUARKKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+1.6
3115-16ARKARKAttack errJurnee Robinson+2.9
3215-17ARKLSUServe errParker Duncan+2.3
3316-17LSUARKKillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+2.1
3417-17ARKARKAttack errLainee Pyles+3.7
3517-18ARKLSUKillLainee Pylesset Martina Villani+2.7
3618-18LSUARKKillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+2.7
3719-18ARKARKAceGaby Cornieraced Katie Raymer+4.4
3819-19ARKLSU×3KillLainee Pylesset Martina Villani+2.9
3919-20LSULSU×3KillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+4.6
4019-21LSULSU×3KillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+4.3
4120-21LSUARKServe errLainee Pyles+2.5
4220-22ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+3.2
4320-23LSULSUBlockedAleki Alexanderblk Jurnee Robinson+3.6
4421-23LSUARKAttack errJurnee Robinsonset Aly Kirkhoff+1.3
4521-24ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+2.4
4621-25LSULSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+1.3
Set 4
10-1ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinson+2.5
21-1LSUARKKillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+2.6
32-1ARKARKAttack errSanaa Donaie+3.9
42-2ARKLSUServe errMadi Benne+2.6
53-2LSUARKKillLakin Laurendineset Parker Duncan+2.8
64-2ARKARKKillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+4.1
74-3ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+2.7
85-3LSUARK×5KillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+2.9
96-3ARKARK×5KillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+4.2
107-3ARKARK×5BlockedLainee Pylesblk Kiki Remensperger, Aleki Alexander+4.0
118-3ARKARK×5BlockedLainee Pylesblk Kiki Remensperger, Aleki Alexander+3.6
129-3ARKARK×5KillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+3.1
139-4ARKLSUKillLainee Pyles+1.7
1410-4LSUARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+2.2
1510-5ARKLSUKillLainee Pyles+1.7
1610-6LSULSUBlockedParker Duncanblk Martina Villani, Jessica Jones+3.0
1711-6LSUARK×3KillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+2.6
1812-6ARKARK×3KillParker Duncanset Madi Benne+3.1
1913-6ARKARK×3BlockedJessica Jonesblk Parker Duncan+2.5
2013-7ARKLSU×4Attack errRomani Thurmanset Madi Benne+1.2
2113-8LSULSU×4AceEmilee Prochaskaaced Madi Benne+2.3
2213-9LSULSU×4KillJurnee Robinsonset Kiley Brooks+3.0
2313-10LSULSU×4Attack errParker Duncan+3.7
2414-10LSUARKKillKiki Remenspergerset Madi Benne+3.1
2514-11ARKLSU×3KillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+2.5
2614-12LSULSU×3KillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+4.4
2714-13LSULSU×3AceJessica Jonesaced Madi Benne+5.1
2815-13LSUARKKillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+4.0
2915-14ARKLSU×3KillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+3.6
3015-15LSULSU×3KillJurnee Robinsonset Kiley Brooks+5.8
3115-16LSULSU×3KillJurnee Robinsonset Kiley Brooks+6.0
3216-16LSUARKKillLakin Laurendineset Madi Benne+4.1
3316-17ARKLSUKillJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+4.3
3417-17LSUARKAttack errJurnee Robinsonset Martina Villani+4.4
3518-17ARKARKAttack errSanaa Donaie+7.1
3618-18ARKLSUKillLainee Pylesset Martina Villani+4.7
3719-18LSUARK×7KillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+5.2
3820-18ARKARK×7Attack errJessica Jones+7.7
3921-18ARKARK×7Attack errAngelina Lee+6.7
4022-18ARKARK×7KillLainee Pylesset Martina Villani+4.9
4123-18ARKARK×7BlockedLainee Pylesblk Kiki Remensperger, Layla Smith+2.8
4224-18ARKARK×7BlockedJessica Jonesblk Kiki Remensperger, Layla Smith+1.1
4325-18ARKARK×7KillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Arkansas first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).