CollegeVolleyball
Final · 4 setsTue, Sep 8, 2026

California def. South Carolina 31

(25-27, 25-11, 28-26, 25-20)
Set1234Sets
CAL252528253
S CAR271126201

RallyIQ model

Win probability

S CAR above 50 · CAL below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100S CARCALBiggest swing +14.0% CAL · S3 24-24rally 187 · set 4

Biggest swing: 14.0% to California — set 3, CAL 24-24 S CAR. Kill by Ashley Li. S CAR win probability 63%49%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CAL 56.8%43.2% S CAR

California wins

3-0
15.6%
3-1
21.6%
3-2
19.6%

South Carolina wins

3-0
9.8%
3-1
15.9%
3-2
17.4%
CAL break %
39.6% vs this opp
S CAR break %
38.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

  1. 01
    Ashley LiKill+14.0%

    Kill by Ashley Li

    Set 3 · CAL 24-24 S CAR · CAL 37%51%

  2. 02
    Olivia BorgmanAttack error+13.6%

    Attack error by Olivia Borgman

    Set 3 · CAL 26-25 S CAR · CAL 51%65%

  3. 03
    Ashley LiKill+13.1%

    Kill by Ashley Li (set by Anna Flores)

    Set 3 · CAL 28-26 S CAR · CAL 65%78%

  4. 04
    Abby ZimmermanAttack error+10.7%

    Attack error by Abby Zimmerman

    Set 1 · CAL 25-27 S CAR · S CAR 53%64%

  5. 05
    Ashley LiKill+10.4%

    Kill by Ashley Li

    Set 1 · CAL 24-24 S CAR · CAL 43%54%

  6. 06
    Cari BohmAttack error+10.3%

    Attack error by Cari Bohm

    Set 1 · CAL 25-26 S CAR · S CAR 43%53%

  7. 07
    Ceci VanceAttack error+10.1%

    Attack error by Ceci Vance

    Set 1 · CAL 25-24 S CAR · CAL 54%64%

  8. 08

    Kill by Lilly Gillespie (set by Madisyn Crnjac)

    Set 3 · CAL 21-23 S CAR · S CAR 54%64%

Official NCAA box

Box score

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415631.290223110031.518.5
414227.4440021014317
411430.2331107012214
410019.5260021004212
45213.2314712150031.57.5
4000000010000
48220.300003600008
14Elise LauL/DS
4000110100001
4011-1.000200410000
4000400700000
Team totals6317141.3265751253221610103
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412222.45500020031.513.5
411531.1941035200011
46316.18800200031.57.5
4001.000100710000
40002503800000
3305.60000000031.54.5
410938.02600030031.511.5
45313.154100000005
42021.0005102020003
4000001100000
2113.000000000001
2000410000001
2000502500000
1000401400000
Team totals5023131.20646212555012684

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 CAL · S CAR 4

Set 1

25-27

Longest run 4 CALS CAR 4

Set 2

25-11

Longest run 7 CALS CAR 2

Set 3

28-26

Longest run 4 CALS CAR 4

Set 4

25-20

Longest run 3 CALS CAR 2

Bars above the line = South Carolina leads, below = California leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

California

SlotSideout %Break %
1
73%11/15
40%6/15
2
85%11/13
15%2/13
3
85%11/13
52%12/23
4
73%11/15
42%8/19
5
71%10/14
33%5/15
6
60%9/15
41%7/17
All
74%63/85
39%40/102

South Carolina

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%11/17
29%4/14
2
69%11/16
8%1/12
3
58%11/19
15%2/13
4
52%11/21
27%4/15
5
59%10/17
31%5/16
6
67%8/12
40%6/15
All
61%62/102
26%22/85

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

187 rallies

Rally log

#CAL-S CARSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0S CARCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.7
21-1CALS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+1.7
32-1S CARCALAttack errOlivia Borgmanblk Sawyer Thomsen, Ashley Li+1.7
42-2CALS CARKillAva Leahyset Kiana Dinn+1.7
53-2S CARCALAttack errOlivia Borgmanblk Sawyer Thomsen, Abby Zimmerman+1.7
63-3CALS CARBad setSawyer Thomsen+1.8
73-4S CARS CARAttack errSiena MacCudden+2.9
84-4S CARCALServe errS CAR server+1.8
94-5CALS CARKillCeci Vanceset Ally Cavanaugh+1.9
104-6S CARS CARKillAlly Cavanaughset Kaia Pixler+3.0
115-6S CARCALKillAnna Floresset Sophia Johnson+1.8
126-6CALCALAttack errCeci Vanceblk Cari Bohm, Anna Flores+3.0
136-7CALS CARServe errCAL server+2.0
147-7S CARCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.9
157-8CALS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+2.0
168-8S CARCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+2.0
179-8CALCALAceCAL serveraced Madisyn Crnjac+3.2
189-9CALS CARServe errCAL server+2.0
1910-9S CARCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+2.1
2011-9CALCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+3.2
2111-10CALS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+1.9
2212-10S CARCALServe errS CAR server+2.1
2312-11CALS CARKillLilly Gillespieset Kaia Pixler+2.0
2412-12S CARS CARKillCeci Vanceset Lilly Gillespie+3.5
2513-12S CARCAL×3KillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+2.3
2614-12CALCAL×3KillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+3.6
2715-12CALCAL×3AceCAL serveraced Olivia Borgman+3.2
2815-13CALS CARAttack errCari Bohm+1.8
2916-13S CARCALKillAnna Floresset Siena MacCudden+2.1
3016-14CALS CAR×4KillSydney Davisset Kaia Pixler+1.8
3116-15S CARS CAR×4Attack errAshley Liblk Elise Marchal, Sydney Davis+3.5
3216-16S CARS CAR×4Attack errAshley Li+4.2
3316-17S CARS CAR×4Bad setCari Bohm+4.6
3417-17S CARCALKillAnna Floresset Abby Zimmerman+2.8
3517-18CALS CAR×3KillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+3.1
3617-19S CARS CAR×3Attack errAnna Flores+4.9
3717-20S CARS CAR×3KillSydney Davis+4.3
3818-20S CARCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+2.0
3918-21CALS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+2.9
4019-21S CARCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.9
4119-22CALS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+3.0
4220-22S CARCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.8
4320-23CALS CARServe errCAL server+3.1
4421-23S CARCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.6
4521-24CALS CARServe errCAL server+3.1
4622-24S CARCAL×4KillAnna Floresset Siena MacCudden+1.0
4723-24CALCAL×4KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+4.1
4824-24CALCAL×4KillAshley Li+10.4
4925-24CALCAL×4Attack errCeci Vance+10.1
5025-25CALS CAR×3Serve errCAL server+6.4
5125-26S CARS CAR×3Attack errCari Bohm+10.3
5225-27S CARS CAR×3Attack errAbby Zimmerman+10.7
Set 2
11-0CALCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+2.8
22-0CALCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Sophia Johnson+2.8
32-1CALS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+1.7
43-1S CARCALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+1.8
53-2CALS CARKillAva Leahyset Kiana Dinn+1.7
64-2S CARCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.8
74-3CALS CARKillAlly Cavanaughset Kaia Pixler+1.8
85-3S CARCALServe errS CAR server+1.9
95-4CALS CARKillAva Leahyset Kaia Pixler+1.8
106-4S CARCALServe errS CAR server+1.9
116-5CALS CARKillCeci Vanceset Kaia Pixler+1.8
127-5S CARCALServe errS CAR server+2.0
137-6CALS CARKillCeci Vanceset Lilly Gillespie+1.9
148-6S CARCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Sophia Johnson+2.0
158-7CALS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+1.9
169-7S CARCALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+2.1
179-8CALS CARServe errCAL server+2.0
1810-8S CARCAL×6Serve errS CAR server+2.1
1911-8CALCAL×6Attack errOlivia Borgman+3.1
2012-8CALCAL×6Attack errAva Leahy+2.7
2113-8CALCAL×6KillGrace Agolliset Abby Zimmerman+2.2
2214-8CALCAL×6AceCAL serveraced Lilly Gillespie+1.7
2315-8CALCAL×6KillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.2
2415-9CALS CARServe errCAL server+0.5
2515-10S CARS CARAttack errAbby Zimmerman+1.2
2616-10S CARCAL×7KillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.0
2717-10CALCAL×7KillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.1
2818-10CALCAL×7KillAnna Floresset Ashley Li+0.6
2919-10CALCAL×7Attack errCeci Vance+0.3
3020-10CALCAL×7Attack errAva Leahy+0.1
3121-10CALCAL×7Attack errCeci Vance+0.1
3222-10CALCAL×7KillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+0.0
3322-11CALS CARKillAva Leahyset Jillian Bohannon+0.0
3423-11S CARCAL×3KillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+0.0
3524-11CALCAL×3Attack errCeci Vanceblk Sawyer Thomsen, Anna Flores+0.0
3625-11CALCAL×3KillAbby Zimmermanset Elise Lau+0.0
Set 3
10-1S CARS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+3.6
21-1S CARCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+2.3
31-2CALS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+2.4
41-3S CARS CARAceS CAR serveraced Siena MacCudden+3.7
52-3S CARCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Ava Leahy+2.2
62-4CALS CARKillAlly Cavanaughset Anna Flores+2.4
73-4S CARCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+2.3
83-5CALS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Jillian Bohannon+2.5
94-5S CARCALServe errS CAR server+2.3
104-6CALS CARKillSydney Davisset Jillian Bohannon+2.5
115-6S CARCALServe errS CAR server+2.4
125-7CALS CARServe errCAL server+2.6
136-7S CARCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+2.4
146-8CALS CARKillCeci Vanceset Kiana Dinn+2.7
156-9S CARS CARAceS CAR serveraced Francesca Popescu+4.0
167-9S CARCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+2.3
178-9CALCALAceCAL serveraced Lilly Gillespie+4.0
188-10CALS CARKillElise Marchalset Grace Agolli+2.8
199-10S CARCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+2.6
2010-10CALCALAttack errCeci Vanceblk Abby Zimmerman, Cari Bohm+4.5
2110-11CALS CARAttack errAbby Zimmermanblk Ava Leahy, Ceci Vance+3.0
2211-11S CARCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+2.9
2312-11CALCALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+4.7
2412-12CALS CARKillAlly Cavanaughset Jillian Bohannon+3.0
2512-13S CARS CARAttack errGrace Agolli+5.0
2613-13S CARCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+3.1
2713-14CALS CAR×4Attack errAnna Flores+3.4
2813-15S CARS CAR×4KillElise Marchalset Lilly Gillespie+5.3
2913-16S CARS CAR×4KillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+4.9
3013-17S CARS CAR×4Attack errAbby Zimmerman+4.2
3114-17S CARCALServe errS CAR server+2.0
3214-18CALS CARAttack errAshley Liblk Sydney Davis, Elise Marchal+2.7
3314-19S CARS CARAttack errAshley Liblk Sydney Davis, Elise Marchal+3.1
3415-19S CARCALKillAshley Liset Sophia Johnson+1.2
3516-19CALCALAttack errElise Marchalblk Sawyer Thomsen, Ashley Li+3.0
3616-20CALS CARServe errCAL server+2.8
3717-20S CARCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.8
3817-21CALS CARAttack errAbby Zimmerman+2.7
3918-21S CARCAL×4Serve errS CAR server+1.6
4019-21CALCAL×4KillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+4.1
4120-21CALCAL×4AceCAL serveraced Olivia Borgman+6.1
4221-21CALCAL×4Attack errCeci Vanceblk Abby Zimmerman, Cari Bohm+8.1
4321-22CALS CARKillCeci Vanceset Kiana Dinn+6.1
4421-23S CARS CARKillLilly Gillespieset Madisyn Crnjac+9.3
4522-23S CARCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+4.0
4622-24CALS CARServe errCAL server+6.9
4723-24S CARCALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+3.5
4824-24CALCALKillAshley Li+14.0
4924-25CALS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Kiana Dinn+8.9
5025-25S CARCALAttack errOlivia Borgmanblk Anna Flores, Cari Bohm+8.9
5126-25CALCALAttack errOlivia Borgman+13.6
5226-26CALS CARBad setAnna Flores+8.6
5327-26S CARCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+8.6
5428-26CALCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+13.1
Set 4
10-1CALS CARKillCeci Vanceset Kiana Dinn+2.2
21-1S CARCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+2.1
31-2CALS CARAttack errGrace Agolli+2.2
42-2S CARCAL×3KillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+2.2
53-2CALCAL×3Attack errElise Marchal+3.5
64-2CALCAL×3Attack errAva Leahyblk Cari Bohm+3.4
74-3CALS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+2.1
85-3S CARCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+2.2
95-4CALS CARKillCeci Vanceset Sydney Floyd+2.1
106-4S CARCALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+2.2
116-5CALS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Sydney Floyd+2.2
127-5S CARCAL×3KillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+2.3
138-5CALCAL×3Attack errAlly Cavanaugh+3.4
149-5CALCAL×3Attack errAlly Cavanaugh+3.0
159-6CALS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Sydney Floyd+1.7
1610-6S CARCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.9
1711-6CALCALAttack errElla Grivnablk Ashley Li+2.6
1811-7CALS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+1.3
1912-7S CARCALServe errS CAR server+1.6
2012-8CALS CARKillElla Grivnaset Kiana Dinn+1.3
2112-9S CARS CARKillCeci Vanceset Kiana Dinn+2.7
2213-9S CARCALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+2.1
2313-10CALS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+1.7
2414-10S CARCALServe errS CAR server+2.1
2515-10CALCALAttack errCeci Vance+2.6
2615-11CALS CARKillAlly Cavanaughset Lilly Gillespie+1.3
2715-12S CARS CARKillAva Leahyset Olivia Borgman+2.7
2816-12S CARCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+2.2
2916-13CALS CARServe errCAL server+1.7
3017-13S CARCALAttack errAlly Cavanaugh+2.2
3117-14CALS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Sydney Floyd+1.7
3218-14S CARCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+2.2
3319-14CALCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+2.5
3419-15CALS CARKillOlivia Borgmanset Lilly Gillespie+1.0
3520-15S CARCALAttack errCeci Vance+1.5
3620-16CALS CARKillCeci Vanceset Kiana Dinn+0.9
3721-16S CARCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.4
3821-17CALS CARKillElise Marchalset Kiana Dinn+0.8
3922-17S CARCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.3
4022-18CALS CARAttack errAbby Zimmermanblk Ava Leahy, Ceci Vance+0.6
4123-18S CARCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.1
4223-19CALS CARKillAva Leahyset Kiana Dinn+0.4
4324-19S CARCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+0.8
4424-20CALS CARServe errCAL server+0.2
4525-20S CARCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+0.4

Score shown after each rally, California first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.